Excess death rate falling

I've been watching the Covid Actuaries since the start of the pandemic as it's all statistics without gloss and soon.

Their latest tweet is talking about the lower than expected deaths over the last few weeks compared with the 10 year average, which is now beginning to feed into a reduction in the overall excess death rate.

It will be interesting to see whether the decline continues and whether we end up with 2021 being a lower than expected death rate. If that does happen, will it been seen as a government success, in the same way, the excess death rate of 2020 was seen as a governmental failure?

The politics of statistics is going to go into overdrive.

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has just published its latest Mortality Monitor.

"Key points:
- CMI calculates 109,400 excess deaths to 26 March, of which 48,600 are since start of second wave.
- there were 6% less deaths than expected this week (5% less last week).
https://t.co/FoTS05B99K"

Deaths remain well below the “expected” level (based on 2019 death rates), and hence cumulative excess death totals have again fallen.

The full report is publicly available here:
https://t.co/sPPrGbtgGC"

TSSeasider said:

It will be interesting to see whether the decline continues and whether we end up with 2021 being a lower than expected death rate. If that does happen, will it been seen as a government success, in the same way, the excess death rate of 2020 was seen as a governmental failure?

Click to expand...

Not so much a success, but it may add a bit of perspective.

I think more important will be the comparison with other countries, where we're already fairly unremarkable, particularly since for us, fingers crossed, hopefully the pandemic is all but over but other's have much further still to go.

Lost Seasider said:

Not so much a success, but it may add a bit of perspective.

I think more important will be the comparison with other countries, where we're already fairly unremarkable, particularly since for us, fingers crossed, hopefully the pandemic is all but over but other's have much further still to go.

Click to expand...

Funders crossed indeed, and there's a way to go yet.