Would be nice if true ..

I’m no military strategist and haven’t got a clue what sort of defensive weaponry the Russians may have in the vicinity, but I’d have thought this 40 mile convoy would be something of a sitting duck target - there is a lot of armour and troops in close proximity pretty much stationary.

If the Russians haven’t got air superiority I’m surprised some sort of attack on it hasn’t been actioned yet?
 
Southshoresteve said:
I’m no military strategist and haven’t got a clue what sort of defensive weaponry the Russians may have in the vicinity, but I’d have thought this 40 mile convoy would be something of a sitting duck target - there is a lot of armour and troops in close proximity pretty much stationary.

If the Russians haven’t got air superiority I’m surprised some sort of attack on it hasn’t been actioned yet?
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Totally. It is odd that no aerial assault has been launched on that convoy when supposedly fighter jets have been donated to the Ukraine...
 
I posted on another thread that I wonder if there's some sort of power struggle going on, I'm sure that a lot of the senior leadership realize that Putin's lost the plot so maybe steps are being taken to replace him.
 
OneStepBeyond said:
Totally. It is odd that no aerial assault has been launched on that convoy when supposedly fighter jets have been donated to the Ukraine...
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It's one of the areas where Ukraine are weak, and the donated fighter jets probably haven't flown for 15 years and are only useful as spare parts.
 
Lost Seasider said:
I posted on another thread that I wonder if there's some sort of power struggle going on, I'm sure that a lot of the senior leadership realize that Putin's lost the plot so maybe steps are being taken to replace him.
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You also have to wonder how the soldiers themselves are feeling about this. If it doesn’t feel right their hearts are not in it then maybe they’ll surrender easily. But that’s probably just wishful thinking
 
Southshoresteve said:
I’m no military strategist and haven’t got a clue what sort of defensive weaponry the Russians may have in the vicinity, but I’d have thought this 40 mile convoy would be something of a sitting duck target - there is a lot of armour and troops in close proximity pretty much stationary.

If the Russians haven’t got air superiority I’m surprised some sort of attack on it hasn’t been actioned yet?
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The Russians don't have air superiority because they've barely been using any of the 300 odd jet aircraft they have in range. I think because they don't want to risk them to anti air on the ground which Russia has failed to neutralise with missiles, which was the first thing they were supposed to do - in theory.

If Ukraine was to start using jets to hit those convoys I think that would change rapidly. Though I have seen several clips of claimed drone attacks by Ukraine.

This is all me guessing though, there's no way of knowing unless you're in the upper echelons of Russian military. This is just another one of many things about the Russian operation that makes zero sense. I can't quite get my head round it. Plenty of abandoned tanks, which are fully functioning and even have fuel. Sticking to roads and following road signs because their troops haven't been issued maps + gps reportedly. Captured Russians saying that they had no clue they were going to have to actually fight and thought they were going to be welcomed/were on an exercise. At first I thought it was just complete incompetence from the ground up, but there's been so many things coming out about it that I'm struggling to believe it can be all down to incompetence/poor logistics/planning.

It's just such a strange invasion considering they were sat on the border for months. Clearly several things haven't gone to plan.
 
I just think they have grouped for a final push on the capital, with massive numbers and weaponry. I do think they thought it would be easier and they could takeover with limited effort and damage.
 
Perhaps waiting to see if negotiations produce anything, if they don’t, which is probably likely, then they’ll go in.

On another point, it makes me wonder why Ukraine has not been made a Nato member having asked to be included for years. Could it be that the west knew that Russia would invade at some point and if Ukraine was in nato, we’d have to engage.

Also it was reported yesterday that the Ukrainian President was given a specially encrypted satellite phone ove three months ago by the USA, so he could speak to leaders around the world in any emergency.
 
There now are no TV pictures, or news correspondents reporting from Ukraine, is this because of the strike on the TV tower, or have they all left.
 
Lost Seasider said:
It's one of the areas where Ukraine are weak, and the donated fighter jets probably haven't flown for 15 years and are only useful as spare parts.
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There is a problem apparently of how the aircraft are going to be delivered without NATO being compromised. Sounds like they will need to be delivered to a non-NATO country where the Ukranian pilots can then fly them back to the Ukraine which won't be strightforward. I think the Ukranians were under the mistaken belief that they could be operated out of Poland.
 
No point using aircraft with a massive risk of losing pilots/navigators when precision guided missiles can do exactly the same thing.
 
traffordtang said:
You also have to wonder how the soldiers themselves are feeling about this. If it doesn’t feel right their hearts are not in it then maybe they’ll surrender easily. But that’s probably just wishful thinking
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Reports are that morale is extremely low, orders are being refused, desertion, sabotage of own equipment etc: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...disarray-crying-combat-radio-messages-reveal/

This doesn't mean that the Russian army can't operate, or in the end take Ukraine, but it does mean that it's going to be much slower than it should be.
 
It may well come to the point where all Russians are forced to move back to Russia. Completely cut off from the World. They will soon overthrow Putin...
 
OneStepBeyond said:
It may well come to the point where all Russians are forced to move back to Russia. Completely cut off from the World. They will soon overthrow Putin...
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Unless Putin and his inner circle of cronies are taken out, long before the Russians are moved back and the country cut off the orders for Nuclear strikes will have been given.
 
Surely a couple of bombs in a strategic point on that road would halt it altogether?
It doesn't seem like there's an alternative route.
 
If that convoy is stationary in daylight it’s a sitting duck. If it has not been attacked from the air yet, that suggests that the Ukrainian Air Force has been severely depleted in the first week of fighting. However, Ukraine will receive more supplies of Turkish drones. These seem to have been effective which means Russian AWACS are not.

But Ukraine will not risk a sally out into the countryside to attack the convoy where their vehicles and troops will be more vulnerable. Despite the horrible risk to civilians, if they are not evacuated, Ukraine soldiers with ATWs can fight best in city suburbs where there is cover. Sadly, this will encourage the Russians to use even heavier weapons on cities.

My big worry is the 6 x 1000MW VVER nuclear reactors on the Dnieper river, south of Zaporizhzhia. It’s the biggest nuclear site in Europe. Those reactor containment buildings will not stop a big missile or bomb, and if a reactor loses cooling systems there is the risk of decay heat causing a meltdown. The trouble is that Ukrainian cities need the electricity, but I hope they have been already shut down and are cooling.
 
Let’s be clear, this is war, whether we like it or not and it’s not going to stop in Ukraine. Putin is shelling civilians including women and children, he’s cut off water in at least one city and food is running out. At some stage the west is going to act and for me it’s better to do it now. How would we all feel if it was here, and the world said, sorry but we don’t want to get invloved.
 
Matesrates said:
Let’s be clear, this is war, whether we like it or not and it’s not going to stop in Ukraine. Putin is shelling civilians including women and children, he’s cut off water in at least one city and food is running out. At some stage the west is going to act and for me it’s better to do it now. How would we all feel if it was here, and the world said, sorry but we don’t want to get invloved.
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Russian media is portraying it as special ops on military targets only in the SE of the country in support of the rebels.

How is he going to explain Russian troops entering Kyiv?

The last sentence won't happen because we're in NATO and countries are obliged to come to our support in the event of an attack. That's how the alliance works and what everyone is signed up for.

I guarantee that if Trump was President, with his decidedly isolationist policies, he'd not come to our aid if needed, as 'it's over in Europe and nothing to do with the US, plus Putin is one smart cookie'
 
Archibald Knox said:
But Ukraine will not risk a sally out into the countryside to attack the convoy where their vehicles and troops will be more vulnerable. Despite the horrible risk to civilians, if they are not evacuated, Ukraine soldiers with ATWs can fight best in city suburbs where there is cover.
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Depends what the objective is. If the objective is to stall the advance, it’s a good strategy, “Hell’s Highway” during Market Garden is a perfect comparison should the need arise.
From what little I know.
 
Matesrates said:
Let’s be clear, this is war, whether we like it or not and it’s not going to stop in Ukraine. Putin is shelling civilians including women and children, he’s cut off water in at least one city and food is running out. At some stage the west is going to act and for me it’s better to do it now. How would we all feel if it was here, and the world said, sorry but we don’t want to get invloved.
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I know what you mean, and this is a tough watch especially knowing it could possibly be stopped quite quickly with NATO intervention. It is not necessarily and automatically going beyond Ukraine though, especially given the sheer size of the country and the spirit of the resistance.
Action now potentially automatically triggers a much more dangerous confrontation though, and even nuclear warheads hitting the West in the next few weeks.
Ukraine is being sacrificed potentially now, which was probably always the plan under these circumstances, but if the full bite of the sanctions and hopefully more stays in place it might just see Putin off, and then maybe we avoid the worst of possible repurcussions. Bad for Ukraine though whatever.
 
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glasshalffull said:
I know what you mean, and this is a tough watch especially knowing it could possibly be stopped quite quickly with NATO intervention. It is not necessarily and automatically going beyond Ukraine though, especially given the sheer size of the country and the spirit of the resistance.
Action now potentially automatically triggers a much more dangerous confrontation though, and even nuclear warheads hitting the West in the next few weeks.
Ukraine is being sacrificed potentially now, which was probably always the plan under these circumstances, but if the full bite of the sanctions and hopefully more stays in place it might just see Putin off, and then maybe we avoid the worst of possible repurcussions. Bad for Ukraine though whatever.
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Also if NATO got involved this would be a PR coup for Putin as thenit will become a war against the Western aggressors and the current internal Russian resistance to the Ukraine invasion will dissipate and the average Russian would unite against NATO.

The best chance of displacing Putin is through internal Russian dissent. To displace him by military means would be close to impossible.
 
Archibald Knox said:
My big worry is the 6 x 1000MW VVER nuclear reactors on the Dnieper river, south of Zaporizhzhia. It’s the biggest nuclear site in Europe. Those reactor containment buildings will not stop a big missile or bomb, and if a reactor loses cooling systems there is the risk of decay heat causing a meltdown. The trouble is that Ukrainian cities need the electricity, but I hope they have been already shut down and are cooling.
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One of the six 1000MW VVER nuclear units at Zaporizhzhia has reportedly been hit by shell fire and small arms. There is a fire on site. The reactor affected is reportedly shut down for repairs but is still full of nuclear fuel assemblies which require cooling. I really hope they can keep the lid on this (literally).
 
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