Reform ⬆️ Conservatives ⬇️

JJpool

JJpool

Well-known member
www.telegraph.co.uk

Tories now just four points ahead of Reform UK

Latest YouGov poll shows Conservatives have sunk to levels of support last seen in final days of Liz Truss’s leadership
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

Reform on 15%

Conservatives on 19%

Surely the Tories should now stand down and let Reform have a go, who would actually give Labour a far better battle.

www.thelondoneconomic.com

Reform lead Tories in the North, YouGov poll shows

Reform UK is now leading the Tory Party in the North (by 18 per cent to 17 per cent), new polling out from YouGov shows.
www.thelondoneconomic.com www.thelondoneconomic.com

Ahead in the north apparently.
 
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Always assuming they have any candidates left. 3 forced out in the last 48 hours due to the most appalling tweets, even Reform can't stomach them.

Anyway, if Farage becoms an American citizen to become US Ambassador, how does that work with his owning Reform ltd?
 
Impressive figures. Maybe Super Nige will fancy another crack at parliament. Or will they still not win a seat?
 
Let Reform have a go?

They have 9 councillors, no MPs other than 30p Lee who barely counts, no infrastructure at a local or national level, no manifesto, no policies, and they should just be allowed to 'have a go'?

I'm sorry to break it to you, but running a country is different to being good at generating 10 minute YouTube clips talking about why the new England kit is woke. It requires organising, door knockers, boring admin, people even more boring behind the people doing the boring admin. It requires real thought out, researched policy ideas. Reform isn't a political party, it's a box for people to tick if they are right wing but dont like the current state of the Tories. Reform has it easy. They get to just make stuff up, just say absolutely bonkers things that will be impossible but without any scrutiny because they likely won't get a single seat. Their economic plan is literally "growth". That's it. Their entire economic platform is to grow the economy. Nice one lads. (They also think they can do one in one out immigration which is impossible and illegal and also completely contradicts growing the economy, but again, this isn't a real party)

The best you will get is the Conservatives with a name change. A re-badged failed party. If the media and general public scrutinised Reform like they do the Tories, they wouldn't be polling 15%. They are a minor party. Minor parties shout slogans and do well on Twitter and YouTube and sometimes get a bit of buzz from protest votes in polls. But they don't actually do anything. And every single by election so far shows their polling is well overstated. Just once can they do as well in a by election as the polls say they should?
 
foggy said:
Let Reform have a go?

They have 9 councillors, no MPs other than 30p Lee who barely counts, no infrastructure at a local or national level, no manifesto, no policies, and they should just be allowed to 'have a go'?

I'm sorry to break it to you, but running a country is different to being good at generating 10 minute YouTube clips talking about why the new England kit is woke. It requires organising, door knockers, boring admin, people even more boring behind the people doing the boring admin. It requires real thought out, researched policy ideas. Reform isn't a political party, it's a box for people to tick if they are right wing but dont like the current state of the Tories. Reform has it easy. They get to just make stuff up, just say absolutely bonkers things that will be impossible but without any scrutiny because they likely won't get a single seat. Their economic plan is literally "growth". That's it. Their entire economic platform is to grow the economy. Nice one lads. (They also think they can do one in one out immigration which impossible and illegal and also completely contradicts growing the economy, but again, this isn't a real party)

The best you will get is the Conservatives with a name change. A re-badged failed party.
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There are some staggering posts on this board at times. The OP was right up there with the worst of them.

It increasingly looks like the right of centre vote is going to fragment in much the same way as happened on the left in 1983 and 1987. The main difference is that neither of the two parties involved this time is seriously trying to appeal to the centre ground. It does make the outcome difficult to predict - but I think our politics may become more polarised than it has ever been.

Starmer's decision to purge his party of the lunatics and bigots looks more astute by the day. He may end up being the only place that One Nation Conservatives can go this time.
 
basilrobbie3 said:
There are some staggering posts on this board at times. The OP was right up there with the worst of them.

It increasingly looks like the right of centre vote is going to fragment in much the same way as happened on the left in 1983 and 1987. The main difference is that neither of the two parties involved this time is seriously trying to appeal to the centre ground. It does make the outcome difficult to predict - but I think our politics may become more polarised than it has ever been.

Starmer's decision to purge his party of the lunatics and bigots looks more astute by the day. He may end up being the only place that One Nation Conservatives can go this time.
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Now there's a horrible thought.
 
basilrobbie3 said:
There are some staggering posts on this board at times. The OP was right up there with the worst of them.

It increasingly looks like the right of centre vote is going to fragment in much the same way as happened on the left in 1983 and 1987. The main difference is that neither of the two parties involved this time is seriously trying to appeal to the centre ground. It does make the outcome difficult to predict - but I think our politics may become more polarised than it has ever been.

Starmer's decision to purge his party of the lunatics and bigots looks more astute by the day. He may end up being the only place that One Nation Conservatives can go this time.
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I'm old enough to remember when Russell Brand was gonna win it for Labour...

The safest betting option right now is the Tories get destroyed but not wiped out, and spend a couple of terms out of power, and see if they can eventually regroup. Labour has a tough challenge to turn the economy around and a ridiculously big majority can cause more headaches than it solves.

But that's just the single most likely outcome. There are other very realistic outcomes that have the Lib Dems as the main opposition and the Tories on a tiny amount of seats. What happens then is anyone's guess. But they will still have hundreds more councillors and activists than some new party. People forget Macron made his new centrist party but it was mostly just existing elected politicians agreeing to come together in a rebranded name. Thats nothing new or radical.

The right wing - whatever party that is - is now massively losing among all under 50s. Until public services get better and anyone in their 30s and 40s can expect to be able to afford a home, no amount of culture wars and party rebrands will change that. Just do the boring work of improving things. I actually don't think things are that polarised in the UK. Brexit has settled and everyone agrees things are crap.

Agreed on Starmer, I have to say he's been very resolute and consistent in not worrying about that nonsense.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
Always assuming they have any candidates left. 3 forced out in the last 48 hours due to the most appalling tweets, even Reform can't stomach them.

Anyway, if Farage becoms an American citizen to become US Ambassador, how does that work with his owning Reform ltd?
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Not seen that tbh, bit given the huge numbers needed there will probably be some bad eggs to clear out.
 
Sven said:
Impressive figures. Maybe Super Nige will fancy another crack at parliament. Or will they still not win a seat?
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Probably not, given the system end up spooking people back to the main ones in the end...
 
foggy said:
Let Reform have a go?

They have 9 councillors, no MPs other than 30p Lee who barely counts, no infrastructure at a local or national level, no manifesto, no policies, and they should just be allowed to 'have a go'?

I'm sorry to break it to you, but running a country is different to being good at generating 10 minute YouTube clips talking about why the new England kit is woke. It requires organising, door knockers, boring admin, people even more boring behind the people doing the boring admin. It requires real thought out, researched policy ideas. Reform isn't a political party, it's a box for people to tick if they are right wing but dont like the current state of the Tories. Reform has it easy. They get to just make stuff up, just say absolutely bonkers things that will be impossible but without any scrutiny because they likely won't get a single seat. Their economic plan is literally "growth". That's it. Their entire economic platform is to grow the economy. Nice one lads. (They also think they can do one in one out immigration which is impossible and illegal and also completely contradicts growing the economy, but again, this isn't a real party)

The best you will get is the Conservatives with a name change. A re-badged failed party. If the media and general public scrutinised Reform like they do the Tories, they wouldn't be polling 15%. They are a minor party. Minor parties shout slogans and do well on Twitter and YouTube and sometimes get a bit of buzz from protest votes in polls. But they don't actually do anything. And every single by election so far shows their polling is well overstated. Just once can they do as well in a by election as the polls say they should?
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They do have a manifesto, so that's a lie.

The country is a right mess and the 2 main parties consistently fail over the years, but let's keep voting for them eh....let someone else have a go for me. They'll never vote to get rid of the corrupt voting system themselves, so if people had the bottle we could get a much fairer proportional one.

That's not what they say at all, you're just being ridiculous now, at least be honest and not post you're own opinion as if it's fact.

By election aren't the same as a general election and Rochdale saw some nasty elements involved, but of course it remains to be seen of they can do well.

I'm just finding the polling interesting amd as more learn about then they seem to go up, which seems to upset you...
 
JJpool said:
They do have a manifesto, so that's a lie.

The country is a right mess and the 2 main parties consistently fail over the years, but let's keep voting for them eh....let someone else have a go for me. They'll never vote to get rid of the corrupt voting system themselves, so if people had the bottle we could get a much fairer proportional one.

That's not what they say at all, you're just being ridiculous now, at least be honest and not post you're own opinion as if it's fact.

By election aren't the same as a general election and Rochdale saw some nasty elements involved, but of course it remains to be seen of they can do well.

I'm just finding the polling interesting amd as more learn about then they seem to go up, which seems to upset you...
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Mate, I can promise you Reform doesn't upset me. They are too irrelevant for that. They will win less than 5 seats, and 0 is a lot more likely than 5. If Farage comes back I will reassess, while acknowledging that he is also deeply unpopular.
 
basilrobbie3 said:
There are some staggering posts on this board at times. The OP was right up there with the worst of them.

It increasingly looks like the right of centre vote is going to fragment in much the same way as happened on the left in 1983 and 1987. The main difference is that neither of the two parties involved this time is seriously trying to appeal to the centre ground. It does make the outcome difficult to predict - but I think our politics may become more polarised than it has ever been.

Starmer's decision to purge his party of the lunatics and bigots looks more astute by the day. He may end up being the only place that One Nation Conservatives can go this time.
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Why? There have been far more staggering posts on here, probably from you in your Oyston defence years, so let's not get silly eh...

I'm only saying along the lines of what the Conservatives said in reform standing down to allow them in for brexit, now it would be right to see that the other way. Of course it'll never happen.

People need to see the Tories lose so they have no chance, so for me I wouldn't vote Tories or Labour, many feel the same, so Reform would be worth a go.

That just my opinion.
 
foggy said:
Mate, I can promise you Reform doesn't upset me. They are too irrelevant for that. They will win less than 5 seats, and 0 is a lot more likely than 5. If Farage comes back I will reassess, while acknowledging that he is also deeply unpopular.
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Probably, but the British like an underdog... 😃

The rise in the polls is impressive though, which is what this thread is about. Polling is all we have really and the longer before an election the more they'll rise IMO, as the message gets out. Also some 'Trump' cards to play yet like Farage...

It will be difficult to convert the polling to real world results but we'll see.

It's interesting, we all know where Labour is right now but things could narrow slightly and there's always unforseen events to make things a little more interesting.
 
JJpool said:
Probably, but the British like an underdog... 😃

The rise in the polls is impressive though, which is what this thread is about. Polling is all we have really and the longer before an election the more they'll rise IMO, as the message gets out. Also some 'Trump' cards to play yet like Farage...

It will be difficult to convert the polling to real world results but we'll see.

It's interesting, we all know where Labour is right now but things could narrow slightly and there's always unforseen events to make things a little more interesting.
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Polling is not all we really have. We have polling, plus electoral models that translates polling into seats with our weird FPTP system, as well as by-election results. Reform has underperormed their polling in every by-election so far. I will be keeping an eye on Blackpool South if that changes.

Short of Rishi Sunak preventing an alien invasion single handedly, there is perceiptbly no chance of something happening that drastically changes things. If we want to spend time talking about a 170 majority or a 400 seat majority, then yeah a few percentage points either way make a drastic difference once we get to that point of the bell curve, but the headline is still historic majority. The Tories have thrown everything at the wall, and they know it has failed. Labour have had their fair share of bad press, it's not exactly been an ideal 6 months for them. And guess what, they are winning historically massive by-elections and the Tories are now polling lower than they did under Liz Truss. People want the Tories out, they don't think Reform are real party because they aren't. Labour are mostly proving competent and just about good enough. They have recognition, familial ties, local and grassroots organisation.

Reform's vote is thinly dispersed. They don't have a door knocking campaign, they don't have councillors, they don't have activists. Votes don't just appear. Ok, some do, but the wing ones are gained by local presence. The Lib Dems will be pouring resources into the Home Counties and if they got 13% of the vote they would get 50 seats or so and Reform could get 16% and only get 1. They don't have the infastructure.
 
Good chance they will push the Tories into 3rd place if they can raise enough people to stand.
They won’t all be right wing voters either, they will gather the ex-Tory voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for Labour and still consider Lib Dems & Green to be a wasted vote. Effectively a protest vote, but the result will be a Labour landslide.
 
foggy said:
Polling is not all we really have. We have polling, plus electoral models that translates polling into seats with our weird FPTP system, as well as by-election results. Reform has underperormed their polling in every by-election so far. I will be keeping an eye on Blackpool South if that changes.

Short of Rishi Sunak preventing an alien invasion single handedly, there is perceiptbly no chance of something happening that drastically changes things. If we want to spend time talking about a 170 majority or a 400 seat majority, then yeah a few percentage points either way make a drastic difference once we get to that point of the bell curve, but the headline is still historic majority. The Tories have thrown everything at the wall, and they know it has failed. Labour have had their fair share of bad press, it's not exactly been an ideal 6 months for them. And guess what, they are winning historically massive by-elections and the Tories are now polling lower than they did under Liz Truss. People want the Tories out, they don't think Reform are real party because they aren't. Labour are mostly proving competent and just about good enough. They have recognition, familial ties, local and grassroots organisation.

Reform's vote is thinly dispersed. They don't have a door knocking campaign, they don't have councillors, they don't have activists. Votes don't just appear. Ok, some do, but the wing ones are gained by local presence. The Lib Dems will be pouring resources into the Home Counties and if they got 13% of the vote they would get 50 seats or so and Reform could get 16% and only get 1. They don't have the infastructure.
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Yes but the by election results aren't much to go off IMO and never generates the same interest, low turnout, many people said they were sick of politics but will come out for a general election. They do need a good ground campaign though, I'd imagine this would ramp up significantly in a GE. Also their by election results in Wellingborough and Kingswood were about in line with current polling.

Blackpool South should be able to muster up enough annoyed people and or Labour voters to get him out, however, again online... there's a lot of support actually for Benton and many saying he's done more for the town than any past MP, people saying they didn't even know they used to have an MP given the lack of visibility. Again, it's not a huge amount needed to get him out so it may well happen, but if somehow he isn't kicked out then apathy will be a factor and also he does do a lot compared to past MP's.

Sunak struggles to stop the boats nevermind stop the spaceships...

Of course it'll take a monumental effort from Reform to force their way in and change things in this system, generation who've voted certain ways etc. But they are very much a real party, as the Conservatives are finding out, but yes they need to grow and establish but you've got to start somewhere. It's not something to be proud of as a country if a party gets millions of votes and no MPs...
 
JJpool said:
Yes but the by election results aren't much to go off IMO and never generates the same interest, low turnout, many people said they were sick of politics but will come out for a general election. They do need a good ground campaign though, I'd imagine this would ramp up significantly in a GE. Also their by election results in Wellingborough and Kingswood were about in line with current polling.

Blackpool South should be able to muster up enough annoyed people and or Labour voters to get him out, however, again online... there's a lot of support actually for Benton and many saying he's done more for the town than any past MP, people saying they didn't even know they used to have an MP given the lack of visibility. Again, it's not a huge amount needed to get him out so it may well happen, but if somehow he isn't kicked out then apathy will be a factor and also he does do a lot compared to past MP's.

Sunak struggles to stop the boats nevermind stop the spaceships...

Of course it'll take a monumental effort from Reform to force their way in and change things in this system, generation who've voted certain ways etc. But they are very much a real party, as the Conservatives are finding out, but yes they need to grow and establish but you've got to start somewhere. It's not something to be proud of as a country if a party gets millions of votes and no MPs...
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That's not how by elections work. They were just about in line with their national polling in a constituency they should be far ahead in. Polling represents a national average. Wellingborough was a more favourable place for them than the UK as a whole. It only strengthened the trend of them underperforming.
 
foggy said:
That's not how by elections work. They were just about in line with their national polling in a constituency they should be far ahead in. Polling represents a national average. Wellingborough was a more favourable place for them than the UK as a whole. It only strengthened the trend of them underperforming.
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I suppose it depends what you expected.

From sky news...

"If there was any doubt among Conservatives about the danger posed by Reform UK, Thursday's by-election results helped to provide some clarity.

Many wondered whether the polls - which had the Reform vote share at about 10% - were overestimating the party's appeal.

Yet, the party took 13% of the vote in Wellingborough and 10% of the vote in Kingswood."

It was a decent if not amazing result and I'm not convinced many actually care about by elections, which the turnouts often prove.

That article in the OP says they're leading in the north with 18% and they outperformed the polling in Wellingborough, if that happened in some northern places at those polling amounts it could be above 20%.
 
JJpool said:
I suppose it depends what you expected.

From sky news...

"If there was any doubt among Conservatives about the danger posed by Reform UK, Thursday's by-election results helped to provide some clarity.

Many wondered whether the polls - which had the Reform vote share at about 10% - were overestimating the party's appeal.

Yet, the party took 13% of the vote in Wellingborough and 10% of the vote in Kingswood."

It was a decent if not amazing result and I'm not convinced many actually care about by elections, which the turnouts often prove.
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I find Sky News' electoral analysis to be poor to be honest. Last year they were calling the council elections underwhelming for Labour because they only got 35%, but for some reason they didn't take notice of the fact that London, Scotland, Wales and IIRC Birmingham weren't voting, so 35% in the rest of England was actually great for Labour. They like a narrative and don't do well digging through the top line.

If you want to hit 13% nationally, it stands to reason you have to hit over 13% in your favoured places. Wellingborough voted 20% for UKIP in 2015, and UKIP got 13% of the vote across the whole of the UK that election. It's not 1:1 but I would at least have expected high teens if their national polling is correct.
 
foggy said:
I find Sky News' electoral analysis to be poor to be honest. Last year they were calling the council elections underwhelming for Labour because they only got 35%, but for some reason they didn't take notice of the fact that London, Scotland, Wales and IIRC Birmingham weren't voting, so 35% in the rest of England was actually great for Labour. They like a narrative and don't do well digging through the top line.

If you want to hit 13% nationally, it stands to reason you have to hit over 13% in your favoured places. Wellingborough voted 20% for UKIP in 2015, and UKIP got 13% of the vote across the whole of the UK that election. It's not 1:1 but I would at least have expected high teens if their national polling is correct.
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They were at 10% and got 13%, ok nothing to go mad about but it's becoming more known.

It's now 15% nationally and apparently 18% in 'the north' but actually...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770811751497367728

Given its lack of presence in Scotland, which brings the national figure down, the figures for England are even closer apparently at 17% to 19%.

Interesting. I stand by the longer they wait for an election the more reform grow via media, via publicly, getting their messages out etc. Get 'the peoples army' involved again on the ground and get farage back and it could jump overnight.
 
JJpool said:
They were at 10% and got 13%, ok nothing to go mad about but it's becoming more known.

It's now 15% nationally and apparently 18% in 'the north' but actually...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770811751497367728

Given its lack of presence in Scotland, which brings the national figure down, the figures for England are even closer apparently at 17% to 19%.

Interesting. I stand by the longer they wait for an election the more reform grow via media, via publicly, getting their messages out etc. Get 'the peoples army' involved again on the ground and get farage back and it could jump overnight.
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Their UK average in the polls is 11.7% right now. I would also argue that the more people learn about them, and the more their slogans get put under a microscope, and they may struggle. It's easy to put a tick into Reform for a protest vote or 'something different'. If they start getting treated seriously their flaws will show as much as any other party, and likely far more. Just for one, expect an avalanche of stories about their loony racist candidates like the one who was just kicked out. Even if they have the best intentions, they won't be thoroughly vetting all their candidates, not enough time or resources.
 
foggy said:
Their UK average in the polls is 11.7% right now. I would also argue that the more people learn about them, and the more their slogans get put under a microscope, and they may struggle. It's easy to put a tick into Reform for a protest vote or 'something different'. If they start getting treated seriously their flaws will show as much as any other party, and likely far more. Just for one, expect an avalanche of stories about their loony racist candidates like the one who was just kicked out. Even if they have the best intentions, they won't be thoroughly vetting all their candidates, not enough time or resources.
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Only going off the polls in the articles.

Oh I'm sure they'll have a few bad eggs and will get rid once they reveal themselves, also that the usual attacks will happen, smears etc, people don't like a new boy entering and they'll be dirty tricks no doubt, labelling.

That's how you generally know they are getting somewhere.
 
JJpool said:
Only going off the polls in the articles.

Oh I'm sure they'll have a few bad eggs and will get rid once they reveal themselves, also that the usual attacks will happen, smears etc, people don't like a new boy entering and they'll be dirty tricks no doubt, labelling.

That's how you generally know they are getting somewhere.
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I'm going off the actual average of all polls that are registered by the British Polling Council.
 
foggy said:
Let Reform have a go?

They have 9 councillors, no MPs other than 30p Lee who barely counts, no infrastructure at a local or national level, no manifesto, no policies, and they should just be allowed to 'have a go'?

I'm sorry to break it to you, but running a country is different to being good at generating 10 minute YouTube clips talking about why the new England kit is woke. It requires organising, door knockers, boring admin, people even more boring behind the people doing the boring admin. It requires real thought out, researched policy ideas. Reform isn't a political party, it's a box for people to tick if they are right wing but dont like the current state of the Tories. Reform has it easy. They get to just make stuff up, just say absolutely bonkers things that will be impossible but without any scrutiny because they likely won't get a single seat. Their economic plan is literally "growth". That's it. Their entire economic platform is to grow the economy. Nice one lads. (They also think they can do one in one out immigration which is impossible and illegal and also completely contradicts growing the economy, but again, this isn't a real party)

The best you will get is the Conservatives with a name change. A re-badged failed party. If the media and general public scrutinised Reform like they do the Tories, they wouldn't be polling 15%. They are a minor party. Minor parties shout slogans and do well on Twitter and YouTube and sometimes get a bit of buzz from protest votes in polls. But they don't actually do anything. And every single by election so far shows their polling is well overstated. Just once can they do as well in a by election as the polls say they should?
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Sorry you are wrong and peddling rubbish.

They do have a manifesto, but they call it a contract and it’s full of policies….

Not saying they are for me, but some of the BS posted on here is just lies.

 
JJpool said:
Not seen that tbh, bit given the huge numbers needed there will probably be some bad eggs to clear out.
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Indeed, but maybe it emphasises the point above that Reform Ltd does not have the infrastructure and organisation to actually be anything other than a protest group atm.
 
It's what happens to the Conservative Party that is the really interesting bit. At best, (for them), they may recover sufficiently before October to force a Lib-Lab coalition. If that were to happen I can foresee a leadership battle between Mordaunt and Badenoch, with the Party stabilising around its current right wing agenda. However, were it to implode at the GE with a significant loss of front-bench seats then I could see the Party splitting in two. The best that the country could hope for would be the resurrection of a centrist, 'one-Britain' party, once the dust has settled; possibly under a caretaker leadership of Damian Green, Greg Clark or Gillian Keegan.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
It's what happens to the Conservative Party that is the really interesting bit. At best, (for them), they may recover sufficiently before October to force a Lib-Lab coalition. If that were to happen I can foresee a leadership battle between Mordaunt and Badenoch, with the Party stabilising around its current right wing agenda. However, were it to implode at the GE with a significant loss of front-bench seats then I could see the Party splitting in two. The best that the country could hope for would be the resurrection of a centrist, 'one-Britain' party, once the dust has settled; possibly under a caretaker leadership of Damian Green, Greg Clark or Gillian Keegan.
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One problem - Mourdant won't be an MP after the election
The rumors about a leadership challenge this week were apparently from Mourdant supporters - she has nothing to lose as she won't get another chance to be leader soon if she is not an MP. Badenoch who has a safer seat (Saffron Waldon) is supportive of Sunak as she has her sights set for a leadership challenge after an election defeat. Hopefully she will be fighting with Braverman to lead an irrelevant party. Priti Patel is attracting some interest as a potential future leader atm.
 
seasideone said:
Sorry you are wrong and peddling rubbish.

They do have a manifesto, but they call it a contract and it’s full of policies….

Not saying they are for me, but some of the BS posted on here is just lies.

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My mistake, I see they released one 3 days ago. Well, if you can call a a manifesto? It's a list of unfunded meaningless pledges. They can put anything in there can't they? Labour says they want to increase spending on green investment and everyone asks where the money comes from, and they have to water it down because people attack their borrowing. Reform have huge tax cuts with no calculations on how they are afforded. They just say 'tax cuts pay for themselves". Sorry, no. That's not true is it. Ask Liz Truss. The Treasury has spending plans for years in advance based on expected spending and tax revenues and eradicating certain taxes and cutting others means you now have a black hole. They say they are going to cut all public sector departmental spending by 5%. I cannot stress enough how unserious this is.

They want to 'scrap employment laws'. Which laws you ask? Don't ask Reform, they don't care to specify.

They want to increase police presence, harsher sentences, more people in jail. Ok, I mean it's standard tough talk every party says. But now we have more prisoners in a prison system which is already overcrowded and a justice system already backlogged. Their policies will make that far worse. Any mention of how they will ease pressure? Nah.

They have a transport section which has 3 things. Scrap HS2. Ban ULEZ zones (so funnelling power away from elected mayor's and local people to Westminster), and a third one. It's great, it's just one line. "Focus on the North". That's it! Focus on the North! Well I for one am convinced.

Look, they are a name and a box you can tick if you have certain beliefs. They are fulfilling a need. But let's not pretend they are a real party with infrastructure, organisers, activists, policies that are real and researched, fully costed. They have slogans. They want to ban critical race theory in school, ban sex ed, blackmail universities they think are 'woke', they spend more time spouting absolute crap about how climate change isn't real than they do talking about the NHS, or our rivers, how they will secure energy, how they will rejuvenate transport links in the North. They don't mention Scotland, NI or Wales once. They don't talk about housing. But they have their 'common sense' ideas that don't stand up to any scrutiny and they would never be able to enact even if they did get into power, and that's all they need to do.
 
foggy said:
My mistake, I see they released one 3 days ago. Well, if you can call a a manifesto? It's a list of unfunded meaningless pledges. They can put anything in there can't they? Labour says they want to increase spending on green investment and everyone asks where the money comes from, and they have to water it down because people attack their borrowing. Reform have huge tax cuts with no calculations on how they are afforded. They just say 'tax cuts pay for themselves". Sorry, no. That's not true is it. Ask Liz Truss. The Treasury has spending plans for years in advance based on expected spending and tax revenues and eradicating certain taxes and cutting others means you now have a black hole. They say they are going to cut all public sector departmental spending by 5%. I cannot stress enough how unserious this is.

They want to 'scrap employment laws'. Which laws you ask? Don't ask Reform, they don't care to specify.

They want to increase police presence, harsher sentences, more people in jail. Ok, I mean it's standard tough talk every party says. But now we have more prisoners in a prison system which is already overcrowded and a justice system already backlogged. Their policies will make that far worse. Any mention of how they will ease pressure? Nah.

They have a transport section which has 3 things. Scrap HS2. Ban ULEZ zones (so funnelling power away from elected mayor's and local people to Westminster), and a third one. It's great, it's just one line. "Focus on the North". That's it! Focus on the North! Well I for one am convinced.

Look, they are a name and a box you can tick if you have certain beliefs. They are fulfilling a need. But let's not pretend they are a real party with infrastructure, organisers, activists, policies that are real and researched, fully costed. They have slogans. They want to ban critical race theory in school, ban sex ed, blackmail universities they think are 'woke', they spend more time spouting absolute crap about how climate change isn't real than they do talking about the NHS, or our rivers, how they will secure energy, how they will rejuvenate transport links in the North. They don't mention Scotland, NI or Wales once. They don't talk about housing. But they have their 'common sense' ideas that don't stand up to any scrutiny and they would never be able to enact even if they did get into power, and that's all they need to do.
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If anyone is peddling rubbish it is Reform.

Stupidly simplistic solutions to very complex problems - what could possibly go wrong (think Brexit, Liz Truss, Rwanda etc.) ?

It is worrying that 10% of the electorate take them seriously.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
Indeed, but maybe it emphasises the point above that Reform Ltd does not have the infrastructure and organisation to actually be anything other than a protest group atm.
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The longer they leave the election the more they will grow IMO, although not sure of the ceiling, it'll be interesting to see.
 
JJpool said:
👍

I'm discussing the latest polling from yougov and the articles.
Click to expand...
I don't know what 'articles' are but that's one YouGov poll. Always better and more accurate to look at the polling average, taking into account multiple polls from different organisations with slightly different methodology.

Polling average is:

Labour 44.3
Conservatives 22.9
Reform 11.7
Lib Dem 9.8
Green 5.8
SNP 2.9

Also worth pointing out again that with FPTP it's very difficult to see Reform winning more than one seat.
 
foggy said:
I don't know what 'articles' are but that's one YouGov poll. Always better and more accurate to look at the polling average, taking into account multiple polls from different organisations with slightly different methodology.

Polling average is:

Labour 44.3
Conservatives 22.9
Reform 11.7
Lib Dem 9.8
Green 5.8
SNP 2.9

Also worth pointing out again that with FPTP it's very difficult to see Reform winning more than one seat.
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The ones posted in the OP as they're the ones I'm discussing and is very recent.

Yes you keep pointing out, as if to somehow downplay what's happening.

Most people know how difficult it is bit have had enough and won't vote for the big 2.
 
JJpool said:
The ones posted in the OP as they're the ones I'm discussing and is very recent.

Yes you keep pointing out, as if to somehow downplay what's happening.

Most people know how difficult it is bit have had enough and won't vote for the big 2.
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Yes but that is literally just one poll, the average is more accurate, is my point. Just wanting to discuss the one that has Reform higher is cherry picking to suit your narrative.

And I think the fact Reform will get 0-1 seats at the next election is relevant, to be honest.
 
JJpool said:
The ones posted in the OP as they're the ones I'm discussing and is very recent.

Yes you keep pointing out, as if to somehow downplay what's happening.

Most people know how difficult it is bit have had enough and won't vote for the big 2.
Click to expand...
An average of all the polls is a much better measure because any one sample of voters could be skewed. Averaging them together gives you a larger sample size and therefore a more accurate picture of voting intentions. The poll of polls is usually polls that were carried out within a few days of each other, any one poll is less reliable.
Cognitive bias means that we attach more weight to things that happen that confirm pre-existing beliefs. This one poll confirms something that you want to believe about Reform gaining support. However, the average figure is a more reliable guide to voting intention atm.
 
foggy said:
Yes but that is literally just one poll, the average is more accurate, is my point. Just wanting to discuss the one that has Reform higher is cherry picking to suit your narrative.

And I think the fact Reform will get 0-1 seats at the next election is relevant, to be honest.
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I've said OK that's fine but I posted the articles yesterday as they were just done and discussing it.

When was the poll of polls updated?

I've also stated polls have been known to not pick up this type of voter very well.

But either way, they are on the rise in the polls.
 
foggy said:
My mistake, I see they released one 3 days ago. Well, if you can call a a manifesto? It's a list of unfunded meaningless pledges. They can put anything in there can't they? Labour says they want to increase spending on green investment and everyone asks where the money comes from, and they have to water it down because people attack their borrowing. Reform have huge tax cuts with no calculations on how they are afforded. They just say 'tax cuts pay for themselves". Sorry, no. That's not true is it. Ask Liz Truss. The Treasury has spending plans for years in advance based on expected spending and tax revenues and eradicating certain taxes and cutting others means you now have a black hole. They say they are going to cut all public sector departmental spending by 5%. I cannot stress enough how unserious this is.

They want to 'scrap employment laws'. Which laws you ask? Don't ask Reform, they don't care to specify.

They want to increase police presence, harsher sentences, more people in jail. Ok, I mean it's standard tough talk every party says. But now we have more prisoners in a prison system which is already overcrowded and a justice system already backlogged. Their policies will make that far worse. Any mention of how they will ease pressure? Nah.

They have a transport section which has 3 things. Scrap HS2. Ban ULEZ zones (so funnelling power away from elected mayor's and local people to Westminster), and a third one. It's great, it's just one line. "Focus on the North". That's it! Focus on the North! Well I for one am convinced.

Look, they are a name and a box you can tick if you have certain beliefs. They are fulfilling a need. But let's not pretend they are a real party with infrastructure, organisers, activists, policies that are real and researched, fully costed. They have slogans. They want to ban critical race theory in school, ban sex ed, blackmail universities they think are 'woke', they spend more time spouting absolute crap about how climate change isn't real than they do talking about the NHS, or our rivers, how they will secure energy, how they will rejuvenate transport links in the North. They don't mention Scotland, NI or Wales once. They don't talk about housing. But they have their 'common sense' ideas that don't stand up to any scrutiny and they would never be able to enact even if they did get into power, and that's all they need to do.
Click to expand...
Yet again - it is costed, and if you go into their website they explain how they will do each one of the things listed.

It’s also been around for longer than three days in some format.

By the way, I am not saying it’s great, or the costings are right - but for a man who has been published - there is lots of rubbish and misleading stuff flying around.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
An average of all the polls is a much better measure because any one sample of voters could be skewed. Averaging them together gives you a larger sample size and therefore a more accurate picture of voting intentions. The poll of polls is usually polls that were carried out within a few days of each other, any one poll is less reliable.
Cognitive bias means that we attach more weight to things that happen that confirm pre-existing beliefs. This one poll confirms something that you want to believe about Reform gaining support. However, the average figure is a more reliable guide to voting intention atm.
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Fwiw I do think reform are rising and wouldn't be surprised if they get to 13% and beyond in the polling average eventually. I just think all the by-election results so far show the polls are over rating them slightly.

I also think people have a bias where they don't think about knock on effects and just predict a pattern to continue. If Reform kept polling higher they would come under more spotlight and their absurd candidates, pathetic manifesto and lack of substance would be picked apart. I'd wager 90% of people couldn't pick Richard Tice out of a lineup, never mind explain what he stands for and his policies. They are in a bit of a sweet spot right now. Labour may win the election by default but whatever votes Reform could be called 'by default' just as accurately.
 
seasideone said:
Yet again - it is costed, and if you go into their website they explain how they will do each one of the things listed.

It’s also been around for longer than three days in some format.

By the way, I am not saying it’s great, or the costings are right - but for a man who has been published - there is lots of rubbish and misleading stuff flying around.
Click to expand...
No it isn't. There are two tables with about 8 rows of made up numbers. That's not costed. You can't just pull numbers out of a hat and say you've funded your manifesto. That's absurd.
 
foggy said:
No it isn't. There are two tables with about 8 rows of made up numbers. That's not costed. You can't just pull numbers out of a hat and say you've funded your manifesto. That's absurd.
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It’s costed - you may not agree with it or like it - but they have put forward what they believe to be the costs, and how it will be paid for.

That’s more than Labour are doing - hell I don’t even know what they want to do!!!

To be clear, there is more chance of me joining the cast of Star Wars as Luke Skywalker than me voting for reform.

But to be clear….

Please get your facts right before calling something out you don’t agree with.

But the BS that there was no policies, no manifesto and no costings is simply wrong.

You not agreeing with them is fine 👍

It’s a big difference, but a very very important one.
 
JJpool said:
I've said OK that's fine but I posted the articles yesterday as they were just done and discussing it.

When was the poll of polls updated?

I've also stated polls have been known to not pick up this type of voter very well.

But either way, they are on the rise in the polls.
Click to expand...

Yes and I've added the context of their more accurate place in the polls, which nobody wanting an honest discussion of where they stand should have a problem with.

Poll of polls was last updated later last night. Sky has a good poll tracker. I may think their analysis lacks sophistication but their polling tracker is top notch.
 
seasideone said:
It’s costed - you may not agree with it or like it - but they have put forward what they believe to be the costs, and how it will be paid for.

That’s more than Labour are doing - hell I don’t even know what they want to do!!!

To be clear, there is more chance of me joining the cast of Star Wars as Luke Skywalker than me voting for reform.

But to be clear….

Please get your facts right before calling something out you don’t agree with.

But the BS that there was no policies, no manifesto and no costings is simply wrong.

You not agreeing with them is fine 👍

It’s a big difference, but a very very important one.
Click to expand...
I have pointed out where their policies lack definition, such as claiming to end laws and not specifying which ones. Saying 'Focus on the North' for one third of your transport section. These aren't policies. That's a slogan.

If you don't show your workings, your numbers are worthless, and in any reasonable sense of the word, makes it unfunded. In 2019, Labour released a 44 page document detailing how they were funding every single part of their manifesto. It referred to research studies, economic data from independent organisations, took into account existing future government spending plans, broke up department spending into sub categories with detail. It has 41 footnotes linking to further reading and evidence supporting it's numbers.

Reform's costings fill one page and consist of a table of money saved with 8 rows and a table of money spent in 10 rows. All in round numbers because if you are pulling numbers out of your arse, why not. There isn't a single footnote providing a source to external data.

Now, this is a draft, and perhaps they will detail their costings later down the line. But for now this is unfunded. And they are unserious.
 
seasideone said:
Yet again - it is costed, and if you go into their website they explain how they will do each one of the things listed.

It’s also been around for longer than three days in some format.

By the way, I am not saying it’s great, or the costings are right - but for a man who has been published - there is lots of rubbish and misleading stuff flying around.
Click to expand...

"Our Contract is not just another party manifesto. It sets out the reforms that Britain needs in the first 100 days following a general election and thereafter. It has been produced with advice from a range of independent economists, think tanks and advisors on savings and costings.

Costings can be found at the end of each policy page. Some policy areas come with net costs and others with net savings. There is also extra growth assumptions from our economic forums. Final annualised budget calculations across a 5 year term of government can be found at the end of this Contract."

How accurate the costings are is anyone's guess, many economic predictions are often wrong even with thr very best data, so it's always difficult to nail down fully accurate numbers, but they've been transparent about it all and laid it all out.
 
foggy said:
I have pointed out where their policies lack definition, such as claiming to end laws and not specifying which ones. Saying 'Focus on the North' for one third of your transport section. These aren't policies. That's a slogan.

If you don't show your workings, your numbers are worthless, and in any reasonable sense of the word, makes it unfunded. In 2019, Labour released a 44 page document detailing how they were funding every single part of their manifesto. It referred to research studies, economic data from independent organisations, took into account existing future government spending plans, broke up department spending into sub categories with detail. It has 41 footnotes linking to further reading and evidence supporting it's numbers.

Reform's costings fill one page and consist of a table of money saved with 8 rows and a table of money spent in 10 rows. All in round numbers because if you are pulling numbers out of your arse, why not. There isn't a single footnote providing a source to external data.

Now, this is a draft, and perhaps they will detail their costings later down the line. But for now this is unfunded. And they are unserious.
Click to expand...
You are entitled to you opinion on their policies and costings - which I generally agree with.

But to claim some stuff you are saying as fact is wrong!!
 
foggy said:
Yes and I've added the context of their more accurate place in the polls, which nobody wanting an honest discussion of where they stand should have a problem with.

Poll of polls was last updated later last night. Sky has a good poll tracker. I may think their analysis lacks sophistication but their polling tracker is top notch.
Click to expand...
OK well let's never discuss an article being posted on here again without 50 other articles setting out a slightly different position. 👍
 
JJpool said:
"Our Contract is not just another party manifesto. It sets out the reforms that Britain needs in the first 100 days following a general election and thereafter. It has been produced with advice from a range of independent economists, think tanks and advisors on savings and costings.

Costings can be found at the end of each policy page. Some policy areas come with net costs and others with net savings. There is also extra growth assumptions from our economic forums. Final annualised budget calculations across a 5 year term of government can be found at the end of this Contract."

How accurate the costings are is anyone's guess, many economic predictions are often wrong even with thr very best data, so it's always difficult to nail down fully accurate numbers, but they've been transparent about it all and laid it all out.
Click to expand...
Transparency would be showing where those numbers have come from. Saying what think tanks and advisors you consulted. As mentioned in my above post, Labour provided a separate 40 page funding document for their last manifesto which linked to over 40 external sources. They didn't just say 'we asked people and costed it'. They showed how they did it. They gave the source.

Honestly...can we have a higher standard here? I know you like Reform, clearly, but how can you honestly say what you quoted amounts to transparency?
 
JJpool said:
I've said OK that's fine but I posted the articles yesterday as they were just done and discussing it.

When was the poll of polls updated?

I've also stated polls have been known to not pick up this type of voter very well.

But either way, they are on the rise in the polls.
Click to expand...

POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland

All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland elect…
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

That gives you a good idea of trends based on poll of polls, the dots are individual poll results the line is the average over the last few polls, it's continuously updated every time a poll is added
 
seasideone said:
You are entitled to you opinion on their policies and costings - which I generally agree with.

But to claim some stuff you are saying as fact is wrong!!
Click to expand...
Everything I just said is fact. They have not provided any sourcing or data. There is nothing evident backing up their threadbare numbers. They have not given detail on policies. They have not taken into account knock on effects, such as what happens to energy bills when you take away all subsidies in the first 100 days. Or what happens to food prices when you mandatory make certain food chains have to buy 70% British.
 
foggy said:
Transparency would be showing where those numbers have come from. Saying what think tanks and advisors you consulted. As mentioned in my above post, Labour provided a separate 40 page funding document for their last manifesto which linked to over 40 external sources. They didn't just say 'we asked people and costed it'. They showed how they did it. They gave the source.

Honestly...can we have a higher standard here? I know you like Reform, clearly, but how can you honestly say what you quoted amounts to transparency?
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It's more transparent than I've seen from Labour recently.

It's also a draft and I'm sure will be gone over in more detail as the election approaches. Its for the masses to read not accountants.

It is what it is, you said they didn't have one, they do, you said it isn't costed, it is.
 
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