Are The Govt Now Being Too Cautious ?

Adams Kebab

Well-known member
That's my point and let's get it right lockdowns are meant to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed not offer a long term solution
The deaths are dropping rapidly and those stats are 2-3 weeks behind infection
If people aren't dying from the virus you must surely accept it's time to start lifting restrictions
All the data is dropping rapidly and the only argument seems to be that “we don’t want to rush like last time” or “we can’t make the same mistake again”...

Hello?! Hello? What was the point of the vaccine then?
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
If people aren't dying from the virus you must surely accept it's time to start lifting restrictions

Is anyone disputing that?

The question is surely about the speed that restrictions are lifted and, since the government appears to intend to lift restrictions cautiously you appear to have reversed your earlier position simply for the sake of criticising them.


There was clear evidence that the primary source in the build up to xmas was schools
I'm not spending time digging it out - Lost can look for it himself

Ahhhhh........... half remembered, half understood stories from the press, the bedrock of any factual or science based discussion.

In any event this:
With the lions share of transmission in school age children they can’t possibility justify schools all back in two weeks but no meet ups and shops staying closed for another six weeks

Is a statement about the situation today, not the situation 3 months ago.
 

Adams Kebab

Well-known member
Don’t worry about me Adams, I have a good life and am very happy 👍
That’s good to hear, I’ll be happy again when normal life can resume & we don’t have nosey bastards who find purpose in life trying to micro-manage everyone else and point how dangerous or life threatening they are by stopping off at their friends house or talking to someone in a park & it being “packed out” (even though said person is in the same park).
 

seasideone

Well-known member
That’s good to hear, I’ll be happy again when normal life can resume & we don’t have nosey bastards who find purpose in life trying to micro-manage everyone else and point how dangerous or life threatening they are by stopping off at their friends house or talking to someone in a park & it being “packed out” (even though said person is in the same park).
I get it, lockdown is tough.

We are fortunate not to have it - and can go to the pub - but I do remember when we did have it, it was enforced very strictly.

We didn’t actually go out of our condo for 10 weeks.

The problem I have with the UK population is that many have just done what they want with no penalty - everyone seems to have an excuse for anything they do.

I also 100% appreciate the incredibly mixed and poor messaging from the government has not helped - or the governments decision making for that matter.

...and yes it effects us massively the mistakes the UK government have made, and the lack of compliance by some of the UK population, as we are desperate to see some of our close family in the UK - just as everyone else is.
 

BFC_BFC_BFC

Well-known member
Just read the thread back it’s very clear - especially to you as you have been arguing against it.
OK, despite how pathetic and childishly you are behaving, I’ll humour you.

Firstly you said
I wonder if you had it and had no symptoms, but managed to pass it on to someone who died??

We will never know 👍
I then replied that would be unlikely and I let you know that I had had very limited human contact. Obviously as I’m sure you know, the virus transmits by coming into contact with other people.

You then said

...but we will never know 👍

And I replied that I would know, because none of the people I had been in contact with had died.

And none of them have..

Of course it’s possibly that a small number of people who may have caught the virus off me may have them gone on to pass it on to someone else and so on, but that wouldn’t be me having passed it on to someone who died, that would be ‘them’ passing it on to someone who died...

In that case I would have passed it on to someone who passed it on to someone else.

You then decided to childishly continue to pursue the Playground themed discussion with.

They could have passed it on after getting from you without knowing it and so on....

We can go on all day, but you will never know whatever you say 👍

To which I confirmed they could, but they haven’t and I corrected your misunderstanding about my initial statement.

Of course someone catching non-symptomatic Covid off me is not the same as them dying, which was what you said in your first bungled attempt to accuse me of putting people at risk through my actions.

As it happens I haven’t been in close enough contact with anyone or in an environment where transmission is a risk and therefore either catching Covid or transmitting Covid would be highly unlikely.

Then obviously we just developed into “I know you are I said you are, but what am I” territory with you just repeating ever increasing circles that I might have passed it on to someone who passed it on to someone who passed it on ad infinitum, in order to somehow reinforce a point that was never really intended to be the point in the first place (as I pointed out to you mid-discussion).

If however you were simply, although very clumsily, pointing out that I may have somehow been unintentionally and unknowingly involved in the transmission of Covid... Then yes, of course, that remote possibility exists... However the risk of that situation has been diminished and not increased by my choice to ignore Government Advice.
 

seasideone

Well-known member
OK, despite how pathetic and childishly you are behaving, I’ll humour you.

Firstly you said

I then replied that would be unlikely and I let you know that I had had very limited human contact. Obviously as I’m sure you know, the virus transmits by coming into contact with other people.

You then said



And I replied that I would know, because none of the people I had been in contact with had died.

And none of them have..

Of course it’s possibly that a small number of people who may have caught the virus off me may have them gone on to pass it on to someone else and so on, but that wouldn’t be me having passed it on to someone who died, that would be ‘them’ passing it on to someone who died...

In that case I would have passed it on to someone who passed it on to someone else.

You then decided to childishly continue to pursue the Playground themed discussion with.



To which I confirmed they could, but they haven’t and I corrected your misunderstanding about my initial statement.

Of course someone catching non-symptomatic Covid off me is not the same as them dying, which was what you said in your first bungled attempt to accuse me of putting people at risk through my actions.

As it happens I haven’t been in close enough contact with anyone or in an environment where transmission is a risk and therefore either catching Covid or transmitting Covid would be highly unlikely.

Then obviously we just developer into “I know you are I said you are, but what am I” territory with you just repeating ever increasing circles that I might have passed it on to someone who passed it on to someone who passed it on ad infinitum, in order to somehow reinforce a point that was never really intended to be the point in the first place (as I pointed out to you mid-discussion).

If however you were simply, although very clumsily, pointing out that I may have somehow been unintentionally and unknowingly involved in the transmission of Covid... Then yes, of course that remote possibility exists... However the risk of that situation has been diminished and not increased by my choice to ignore Government Advice.
No need to humour me 👍

Put simply and again - YOU will never know 👍
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
The issue is do we risk a spike in transmission by unlocking too early thus running the risk of further mutations that the current vaccines aren't effective against or do we stick it out until case rates are really low?
 

seasideone

Well-known member
The issue is do we risk a spike in transmission by unlocking too early thus running the risk of further mutations that the current vaccines aren't effective against or do we stick it out until case rates are really low?
As ever it’s a balance, and I am glad I am not making the decision.

I would probably go for - once the over 50s and the existing conditions have had one vaccine dose, and the over 70s have had both - I would then open up three weeks after the above had happened.
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
As ever it’s a balance, and I am glad I am not making the decision.

I would probably go for - once the over 50s and the existing conditions have had one vaccine dose, and the over 70s have had both - I would then open up three weeks after the above had happened.
He definitely needs to be careful. If we end up in yet another lockdown of this magnitude, I think he's finished.
 

seasideone

Well-known member
Well you clearly cannot comprehend basic English.

Clearly I can know, because the death of an individual is a matter of fact and had someone I have had contact with died, then they wouldn’t be here any more.
Go back and read the thread.

You will never know as I have already explained 👍👍
 

seasideone

Well-known member
He definitely needs to be careful. If we end up in yet another lockdown of this magnitude, I think he's finished.
I think he may be already - I expect him to be thrown under the campaign bus once this is over!

The Torys will not, in my opinion, want to go into another election with damaged goods.

....and the enquirey into this is not going to be pleasant I would think.
 

Wizaard

Well-known member
Is anyone disputing that?

The question is surely about the speed that restrictions are lifted and, since the government appears to intend to lift restrictions cautiously you appear to have reversed your earlier position simply for the sake of criticising them.




Ahhhhh........... half remembered, half understood stories from the press, the bedrock of any factual or science based discussion.

In any event this:


Is a statement about the situation today, not the situation 3 months ago.
Schools are shut, so who knows.
 

seasideone

Well-known member
If you want an adult discussion then define what I will never know, because you’ve shifted the goalposts several times in the thread.
Never moved them once.

The fact is simple - you will never know.

....oh and you got personal which I think is out of order, which by the way just made me 😂😂😂😂😂😂
 

BFC_BFC_BFC

Well-known member
Never moved them once.

The fact is simple - you will never know.

....oh and you got personal which I think is out of order, which by the way just made me 😂😂😂😂😂😂
You moved them twice at least.

1. Started with ‘Never know whether anyone I’d passed in to had died’

2. Then changed to ‘whether anyone I’d past it to , had passed it to’

3. Then changed to ‘whether anyone I’d passed it to had passed it to had passed it to etc.’

4. Then simply referenced after a comment I had made about having reduced my risk profile, thereby potentially meaning “You don’t know whether you’ve reduced your risk”

I have asked you three times to clarify. You won’t, because you don’t have the courage.
 

Scaramanga

Well-known member
The over 50s will be vaccinated by mid March. The percentage survival rate from the under 50s is around 99.8% worldwide. Stop it, it’s done, time to get back to living before theres nothing left. People seem to have forgotten about the other deaths from other problems, including suicides up, domestic violence up, non treated illnesses up. Thousands of businesses crashing and burning. Enough is enough, even lathe parts of the world have started to return to normal but not us, we have to hunker down for several more months. Rubbish.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Is anyone disputing that?

The question is surely about the speed that restrictions are lifted and, since the government appears to intend to lift restrictions cautiously you appear to have reversed your earlier position simply for the sake of criticising them.




Ahhhhh........... half remembered, half understood stories from the press, the bedrock of any factual or science based discussion.

In any event this:


Is a statement about the situation today, not the situation 3 months ago.
You keep suggesting that my observations lack objectivity but with respect the criticisms I have made have generally proven well-founded

Take for instance my concerns over not putting London into tier 3 early enough, closing schools pre-xmas, the proposed xmas relaxation

I wouldn't care but I'm not even a Labour supporter - probably voted Tory more often than not

It's perfectly logical to question why people can't meet up in small groups when schools ( which were the super-spreaders pre-xmas ) are being made ready to return

You on the other hand seem to to support each and every decision when the truth is bar the vaccine rollout ( which was delegated to the private sector ) the majority have been too little too late
 

BFC_BFC_BFC

Well-known member
You keep suggesting that my observations lack objectivity but with respect the criticisms I have made have generally proven well-founded

Take for instance my concerns over not putting London into tier 3 early enough, closing schools pre-xmas, the proposed xmas relaxation

I wouldn't care but I'm not even a Labour supporter - probably voted Tory more often than not

It's perfectly logical to question why people can't meet up in small groups when schools ( which were the super-spreaders pre-xmas ) are being made ready to return

You on the other hand seem to to support each and every decision when the truth is bar the vaccine rollout ( which was delegated to the private sector ) the majority have been too little too late
In fairness TAM, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to come identify that increased levels of lockdown will reduce transmission. To that extent, it’s easy (when levels are rising) to say “If we shut things down that will stop” or “If we don’t have Christmas it might transmission” etc... Then subsequently sit back and proclaim that because levels increase, you were proved right.

However, that approach assumes an alternative and perfect outcome based on your suggestions and takes no account at all of other conflicting problems. In the case of Labour, they have relied on that as a tactic to try and undermine Government, knowing they essentially can’t lose.

The Government haven’t (with hindsight) always got it right, but I think it’s important to acknowledge that they are not making Covid decisions in a vacuum.

As it happens, in this instance I probably support a more cautious approach.
 

Loco

Well-known member
Let's not fuck it up because some hard-line backbenchers are worried about their incomes.

I don't think they are the only ones worrying about their incomes.
The tourist and hospitality industries are in mortal danger. That's a big issue for Blackpool too.

We need to unlock and get on with life now the high risk groups are vaccinated.
 

Loco

Well-known member
The reason for that was that the schools were open and everthing else wasn't, especially in November.

The comment I was replying to stated that to be the case now, with the schools closed, when the evidence appears to demonstrate otherwise.
R was 1 or less in Nov if the schools were open then. Similar R to now.
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
I don't think they are the only ones worrying about their incomes.
The tourist and hospitality industries are in mortal danger. That's a big issue for Blackpool too.

We need to unlock and get on with life now the high risk groups are vaccinated.
I know they're not. It was a cheap shot. Smiles.
You're rushing to open up with cases still in low five figures completely ignoring how much of a spike this will cause. The more virus circulating the greater the risk of a mutated version that laughs at the current vaccine. Then we're back to square 1. For the sake of a couple more months.
 

BFC_BFC_BFC

Well-known member
I know they're not. It was a cheap shot. Smiles.
You're rushing to open up with cases still in low five figures completely ignoring how much of a spike this will cause. The more virus circulating the greater the risk of a mutated version that laughs at the current vaccine. Then we're back to square 1. For the sake of a couple more months.
I agree with this, although I’m not entirely sure about how the mutated virus evolves, you’d have to think that the more virus knocking about, the more risk of mutation.

In all honesty I’d rather carry on exactly as we are until it’s right down.. Now were in it, we might as well be done with it.
 

Loco

Well-known member
When it is peer reviewed with evidence I will take it seriously👍 pulling up any old report doesn’t cut it to be fair.

It was also published about a year ago and we have learnt a lot more since then, like it’s not the weather itself, it’s whether you are in or outside.

Regarding cases in Singapore, the vast majority were in the workers dorms which spread like wild fire - the government locked the dorms down and stopped it spreading outside that part of the population.

They built quarantine centres to put the workers in while testing and isolating the infected.

It’s that word ‘quarantine’ again - when you know where it is or could be - you lock down quickly and enforce.

The death toll stayed very low (currently 29 - that’s not thousand by the way) mainly because the workers tended to be younger and fitter than most.
Like most infectious diseases it affects the poor, living in crowded conditions. We have a huge burden of ill health in the UK and a high population density over much of the country. No wonder we've been hit so hard.
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
Schools are shut, so who knows.
To the majority of pupils but we are experiencing many more pupils in school through keyworker provision and vulnerability than last March. Some Junior schools are reporting up to and in some cases more than 50% of kids still attending. Latest figures suggests that one of the group's with the most cases are young kids still fueling community transmission. Is it coincidence?
 

cruzzer

Well-known member
To answer the o/p I would prefer to stay as we are to keep numbers falling and help to ensure that this is hopefully the last lockdown.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
In fairness TAM, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to come identify that increased levels of lockdown will reduce transmission. To that extent, it’s easy (when levels are rising) to say “If we shut things down that will stop” or “If we don’t have Christmas it might transmission” etc... Then subsequently sit back and proclaim that because levels increase, you were proved right.

However, that approach assumes an alternative and perfect outcome based on your suggestions and takes no account at all of other conflicting problems. In the case of Labour, they have relied on that as a tactic to try and undermine Government, knowing they essentially can’t lose.

The Government haven’t (with hindsight) always got it right, but I think it’s important to acknowledge that they are not making Covid decisions in a vacuum.

As it happens, in this instance I probably support a more cautious approach.
I'm not suggesting I am some sort of guru - it was that Lost was calling me out as agenda driven over those calls as well - when is was bloody obvious what a shitstorm was brewing

The difference is now that we have 18m vaccinated inc a majority of the most vulnerable and that will likely increase to at least 25m by 8/3
 

BFC_BFC_BFC

Well-known member
I'm not suggesting I am some sort of guru - it was that Lost was calling me out as agenda driven over those calls as well - when is was bloody obvious what a shitstorm was brewing

The difference is now that we have 18m vaccinated inc a majority of the most vulnerable and that will likely increase to at least 25m by 8/3
😂 No I realise that mate.

Being a bit of an anal type, I did some calculating last week just to see how the vaccine was impacting and it was only this week that the very first published vaccinations would have started to filter through to deaths.

So to that extent, there’s a long lead time (3 weeks for vaccine to kick in) etc...plus time to catch Covid, develop symptoms and eventually succumb.

There is also this mutation issue, which does exist outside the U.K., but nonetheless I think with lots of virus in a partially vaccinated population it might pose a bigger risk.

I think that steady as we go is the way forward and, if it were me, I’d hold off doing anything at all until after Easter.
 

Loco

Well-known member
The issue is do we risk a spike in transmission by unlocking too early thus running the risk of further mutations that the current vaccines aren't effective against or do we stick it out until case rates are really low?
Or it might mutate more quickly into a common cold. Viruses don't really want to kill people.
 

Loco

Well-known member
You keep suggesting that my observations lack objectivity but with respect the criticisms I have made have generally proven well-founded

Take for instance my concerns over not putting London into tier 3 early enough, closing schools pre-xmas, the proposed xmas relaxation

I wouldn't care but I'm not even a Labour supporter - probably voted Tory more often than not

It's perfectly logical to question why people can't meet up in small groups when schools ( which were the super-spreaders pre-xmas ) are being made ready to return

You on the other hand seem to to support each and every decision when the truth is bar the vaccine rollout ( which was delegated to the private sector ) the majority have been too little too late
Children are far better spreaders of influenza than they are of covid-19. We don't keep schools closed because of that. We vaccinate those at risk 🤔
 

Loco

Well-known member
I know they're not. It was a cheap shot. Smiles.
You're rushing to open up with cases still in low five figures completely ignoring how much of a spike this will cause. The more virus circulating the greater the risk of a mutated version that laughs at the current vaccine. Then we're back to square 1. For the sake of a couple more months.
It may mutate to become more benign. That's also been predicted.
 

Bottle

Well-known member
I'm not suggesting I am some sort of guru - it was that Lost was calling me out as agenda driven over those calls as well - when is was bloody obvious what a shitstorm was brewing

The difference is now that we have 18m vaccinated inc a majority of the most vulnerable and that will likely increase to at least 25m by 8/3
18M received 1st dose by the way - we aren’t fully vaccinated yet bar @600,000 or so (as of 19/02)
 
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