Effects of Brexit on Businesses, Economy

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Scaramanga said:
Apparently I’m insular, backward looking and narrow minded, however Im not allowed to say the things I really want as I continually get shut down. Nowt like a good open debate on a politics forum 😂😂
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I don't know why you're being shut down. If it's the language then try it without the sweary bits. Other than that, I don't know.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I don't know why you're being shut down. If it's the language then try it without the sweary bits. Other than that, I don't know.
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Hang on a minute, didn’t you get me shut down the other day then said you hoped I rot in hell ? 😂
 
Chunkylad said:
Thank you to o/p for posting the article
I have to say I thought there would be more in depth analysis in it? Also my northern prejudice kicked in pretty early when the two companies cited as examples of failure were a company in Marlow (lovely place and dripping in money) who named his stationary business “Stewart Superior” and another company on the south coast selling fine art prints.

I am sure there were some good points in the article but I was already irritated….
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I know what you mean, but it doesn’t matter where you are in the UK (with the probable exception of Northern Ireland) trade businesses are under similar pressures.
An old school friend of my wife has just seen her family’s East Yorkshire food import/export business go under, and it had been running for 60 years or so.
No doubt Covid didn’t help at all, but it closed down within a year or two of coming out of the Single Market and Customs Union.
This needs to be early pain, and I sincerely hope it is. 5 per Cent slowly exiting the GDP and compounding over years would do a lot of damage.
 
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1966_and_all_that said:
The first part of your post - your critique of elements of the Resolution Foundation report - is considered. You rightly criticise the reports failure to fully explain the criteria under which it makes judgment of Brexit's failures. Unfortunately, Liam Halligan makes the same mistake throughout his piece.

the threatened collapse of UK trade hasn’t happened...yet. There's a worldwide recession brewing and the Brexit impact on British trade has not come to an end, not by a long chalk. Halligan recognises that in his following comments but then contextualised it in terms of arch-remainers considering Brexit to be axiomatically doomed to failure. Well he would wouldn't he and that sort of knockabout yah-boo stuff takes his argument nowhere.

He then moves the focus of his critique of the Remain argument to the assertion that, "at the core of the EU, the eurozone remains an ill-designed and extremely fragile, half-finished currency union." But the UK was not in the Eurozone. Neither are other Eastern European member States. Yes the Eurozone remains fragile but it isn't fundamental to the survival or continuation of the Union. Indeed, for this poster there is good reason to allow the weaker member states greater flexibility around their adoption of the currency.

These journalistic failings will continue to compromise reasoned debate so long as they are written by people with a side to take. The best thing to do is to take the more reasoned and factual elements and come to one's own conclusions.
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That's fair enough. Halligan starts off with a trade comparison and ends up having a rant against the Eurozone. The points about Italy being unable to devalue are true enough but unrelated to Brexit or British trade.

Unfortunately, everything is polarised these days and people tend to cluster around the statistics/opinion they prefer.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
I've already said that I expected some short term pain economically. How many times do I have to repeat that?
I believe that the short term pain will be worth the long term benefits. I still strongly believe that long term we'll be better off out of the EU.
Nothing I have seen so far has convinced me any different. And if there were another referendum tomorrow I'd vote the same way with just as much conviction.
I gave it a lot of thought on which way to vote. I certainly wasn't one who had made up their mind as soon as the referendum was announced.
As for your claims about Project Fear becoming Project Reality, well I find that laughable.
Some of the huge exaggerations made by the Remain side were unbelievable. Who can forget Osborne's emergency budget for example, which never materialised. I might add there were also some wild claims made on the Leave side. Both sides were equally guilty.
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Name one long term benefit that you are anticipating and what is that timeframe?
 
Wizaard said:
Name one long term benefit that you are anticipating and what is that timeframe?
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1. Not being dragged in to the inevitable rush towards a federal United States of Europe. I don't believe in it and in my opinion it's not economically workable and that was the main reason I voted leave
2. Not having to bail out basket case countries like Greece when inevitably their economies crash again
3. Being able to react quicker on things for example like the covid vaccine roll out, whilst the EU's attempts were a complete cluster fuck
4. Being able to make quicker decisions and act faster, without having to wait for 27 other countries to agree. It took the EU 7 years to broker a trade deal with Canada.
5. Having UK law decided by our own justice system.
There's 5 reasons for starters, some of which are my own personal opinion.
But I'm not going to get in to a long winded debate with you about Brexit. We've been here many times before and it's pointless. My views are what they are and they won't be changing, unless I see something which forces me to think again. So far I haven't seen anything and if there were another referendum tomorrow I'd vote the same way again.
Early start for me tomorrow so I'll bid you goodnight.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
1. Not being dragged in to the inevitable rush towards a federal United States of Europe. I don't believe in it and in my opinion it's not economically workable and that was the main reason I voted leave
2. Not having to bail out basket case countries like Greece when inevitably their economies crash again
3. Being able to react quicker on things for example like the covid vaccine roll out, whilst the EU's attempts were a complete cluster fuck
4. Being able to make quicker decisions and act faster, without having to wait for 27 other countries to agree. It took the EU 7 years to broker a trade deal with Canada.
5. Having UK law decided by our own justice system.
There's 5 reasons for starters, some of which are my own personal opinion.
But I'm not going to get in to a long winded debate with you about Brexit. We've been here many times before and it's pointless. My views are what they are and they won't be changing, unless I see something which forces me to think again. So far I haven't seen anything and if there were another referendum tomorrow I'd vote the same way again.
Early start for me tomorrow so I'll bid you goodnight.
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So your main argument is that you are going to totally ignore what is going on in the world and live in a state of ignorance.

1. When we were in the EU, we had the power of veto. It wasn't going to happen. Now we have no influence to stop anything.

2. Those basket case economies? That's us, that is, but there's no one to bail us out.

3. We have lost our biggest market in the vague hope somewhere like Outer Mongolia might want to trade camel dung with us.

4. What major trade deals have we done since 2016?

5. UK law was and still is our prerogative. It was another lie to think otherwise.
 
Wizaard said:
So your main argument is that you are going to totally ignore what is going on in the world and live in a state of ignorance.

1. When we were in the EU, we had the power of veto. It wasn't going to happen. Now we have no influence to stop anything.

2. Those basket case economies? That's us, that is, but there's no one to bail us out.

3. We have lost our biggest market in the vague hope somewhere like Outer Mongolia might want to trade camel dung with us.

4. What major trade deals have we done since 2016?

5. UK law was and still is our prerogative. It was another lie to think otherwise.
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What part of 'I'm not going to get in to a long winded debate with you about Brexit' did you not understand?
 
Wizaard said:
So your main argument is that you are going to totally ignore what is going on in the world and live in a state of ignorance.

1. When we were in the EU, we had the power of veto. It wasn't going to happen. Now we have no influence to stop anything.

2. Those basket case economies? That's us, that is, but there's no one to bail us out.

3. We have lost our biggest market in the vague hope somewhere like Outer Mongolia might want to trade camel dung with us.

4. What major trade deals have we done since 2016?

5. UK law was and still is our prerogative. It was another lie to think otherwise.
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1. When we were in the EU, we had the power of veto. It wasn't going to happen. Now we have no influence to stop anything.
(We had a vote, it didn't mean it counted for anything)

2. Those basket case economies? That's us, that is, but there's no one to bail us out.
(We will be fine, stop panicking in the name of the EU, if we are in such a shit place why does everyone want a slice of us)

3. We have lost our biggest market in the vague hope somewhere like Outer Mongolia might want to trade camel dung with us.
(I don't even know where to go with this childish reply)

4. What major trade deals have we done since 2016?
(Plenty, but as usual you choose to look the other way)

5. UK law was and still is our prerogative. It was another lie to think otherwise.
(Lots of Our laws were still decided by Brussels, not anymore)
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
1. Not being dragged in to the inevitable rush towards a federal United States of Europe. I don't believe in it and in my opinion it's not economically workable and that was the main reason I voted leave
2. Not having to bail out basket case countries like Greece when inevitably their economies crash again
3. Being able to react quicker on things for example like the covid vaccine roll out, whilst the EU's attempts were a complete cluster fuck
4. Being able to make quicker decisions and act faster, without having to wait for 27 other countries to agree. It took the EU 7 years to broker a trade deal with Canada.
5. Having UK law decided by our own justice system.
There's 5 reasons for starters, some of which are my own personal opinion.
But I'm not going to get in to a long winded debate with you about Brexit. We've been here many times before and it's pointless. My views are what they are and they won't be changing, unless I see something which forces me to think again. So far I haven't seen anything and if there were another referendum tomorrow I'd vote the same way again.
Early start for me tomorrow so I'll bid you goodnight.
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Fair enough for giving reasons but I don't agree with you on points 3,4 and 5. Points 3 and 5 I believe are factually incorrect and 4 is a valid on the face of it but trade deals are about getting the right deal, not the pace of agreement. Trade deals are about financial muscle and in that respect the US, China and the EU are king. Everyone else is a small player by comparison. Yes we can agree a deal in 5 minutes but it doesn't make it a good one for this country and I think the Australia deal is a good example of this.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
What part of 'I'm not going to get in to a long winded debate with you about Brexit' did you not understand?
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Not asking you to debate it but I believe - and said it elsewhere on here - that the Eurozone should be more flexible for those countries with weaker currencies. A lot of the economic harm suffered by Greece came about because they were uncompetitive by being in the Euro.
 
After 6 years none of the brexit issues have been resolved, the northern ireland agreement is still up in the air, the UK's principle economic output is being gradually eroded, there is chaos at ports, chaos for any company exporting, trade deals are few and far between, and yet people and the media still spout the horseshit of UK law autonomy, EU federalism, and so called sovereignty.

The real effects of brexit will not be properly felt for at least a couple of decades, Even old Rees Mogg is quoted as saying any positive effects could take 30 years or more.

I have yet to see a single positive or could even predict a single positive, apart from the breakup of the UK which might actually be a positive in the medium term. If anything the pandemic and the current Russia crisis are probably masking the effects of Brexit, and with the current attitude of government (and I see no way that labour will get into power any time soon), multiple crisis' will be the order of the day - so that Brexit issues and the resulting economic issues can be largely blamed on something else. There are already several crisis' bubbling under - northern ireland agreement, scottish independence, trade war with the EU. Governments attention and with media complicity will be able to blame anything but Brexit.

The Halligan article above is simply full of innacuracies and outright lies, the only true statement is that the Eurozone financial system is on the verge of collapse. If the Euro or the Euro finance system does collapse whether absolutley or relatively (and i personally think it will) that will affect the UK as the (barely still) financial capital of europe as much as any country in the eurozone.

Halligan also seems to be claiming the re-joiners are impacting the ability to implement the brexit benefits, but the real reason is that the current crop of pro-brexit imbeciles in government are still proclaiming a fantasy world where brexit is a overwhelming positive for the country and hence every single policy is developed so that it doesnt make the problems of Brexit apparent to supporters.
 
poolseasider said:
In the Guardian no thanks no different than the Daily Mail- Two ends of the same shitty stick.
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poolseasider said:
In the Guardian no thanks no different than the Daily Mail- Two ends of the same shitty stick.
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Kip said:
I read the summary of the report last night. It is quite negative about the economic effects of Brexit but a few things stand out.

  • The £870 cost per person is not an ongoing thing. That was calculated in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 referendum and that particular pain is now passed. The report does make that clear.
  • The report seems to assume that Brexit in itself would be responsible for 'levelling up' but I don't remember anyone saying that was a direct consequence. As I understand it, Brexit allows greater freedoms so levelling-up agendas can be pursued more vigorously. If those policies are not pursued then there will be no levelling up Brexit or not.
  • There's a big emphasis on 'openness' and how Brexit has had a negative effect on UK openness but it never explains the criteria for openness. Maybe this is something all professional economists know but it's not obvious to the casual reader which means it's difficult to asses how big a problem this is.
I'll have a look later at the full report. There are no obvious 'crazy Remainer' tendencies from the authors so it's worth a read.

This from Liam Halligan in the DT.

"Since 2016, the pound has stayed roughly in line with the euro and the much-hyped mass exodus from the City didn’t materialise. Our world class financial services industry has actually grown even more, with London consolidating its position as a global “super-hub”.
Yes, UK trade has been affected, as was always likely during the early post-Brexit uncertainties. Yet, the combination of delay (Parliament spent three years rowing over whether to implement Brexit) and global lockdown, means assessing the scale of that impact is tough.

It's clear, though, that the threatened collapse of UK trade hasn’t happened. Weeks before the 2016 referendum, ardent Remainer and then Tory MP Anna Soubry warned UK trade with the EU would fall “almost absolutely to zero” if we voted to leave.
But official data last week showed, in the words of the Office for National Statistics, that UK exports of goods to the EU “increased for the third consecutive month in April 2022 and are at the highest levels since records began”.

As I said, the combination of implementation delays and the pandemic means, even six years on, it’s far too early to judge the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. The dislocation of war in Ukraine – which hits an energy importer like the UK far harder than energy exporters like the US – further complicates that assessment.
None of that stops the usual suspects from considering it axiomatic that the UK economy will always perform far worse outside the EU than had we remained a “member of the club”.

While the evidence so far is mixed, I’d say there are signs, for all the turmoil of recent years and today’s cost of living crisis, that post-Brexit Britain is actually out-performing the EU27.
And the economic benefits of being outside the EU – aside from the overwhelming democratic upsides – would become clearer still if ministers more energetically embraced the post-Brexit agenda, implementing more deregulatory and other growth-enhancing supply-side measures made possible now we’ve left.

Six years on, I maintain there were reasons to stay in the EU and reasons to leave, with compelling arguments either way. While I voted for Brexit, countless people I deeply respect and admire voted the other way.
Yet, while the overwhelming majority of Remain voters have accepted the outcome, and want Britain to thrive anyway, a small but highly influential group of unreconciled remain-voters are determined to see us re-join. And until they get their way, they’ll keep talking down Britain, ignoring blindingly obvious statistics while insisting Brexit is reversed.

Another reality the UK’s re-join movement must face is that, at the core of the EU, the eurozone remains an ill-designed and extremely fragile, half-finished currency union. And, over recent weeks, there have been growing fears we could see a re-run of the 2011-12 eurozone crisis, which threatened the collapse of the entire single currency construct.

Almost exactly a decade ago, Mario Draghi, then ECB President pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro from destruction. At the time, Greece was on the verge of stumbling out of the eurozone. Italy, the region’s third-largest economy, was so indebted that it too seemed destined to leave, perhaps sparking the implosion of monetary union – and spreading financial turmoil across the globe.
Today, Mario Draghi is Prime Minister of Italy – now even more in the red, with government debt exceeding 150pc of GDP. And there are warning signs on global bond markets that as inflation rises, and the ECB starts raising interest rates, we could face a renewed euro-zone crisis</a> and related market turbulence.

Eurozone inflation is now 8.1pc and, as in the UK, heading for double-digits. All major economies are raising rates to push down on price pressures. The eurozone is so weak, though, the ECB’s rate remains minus 0.5pc – and is set to increase just 25 basis points in July, before possibly reaching 0pc in September.
The ECB is meanwhile propping up various over-indebted member states – including Italy, one of the world’s largest economies – who can’t depreciate their currencies to escape the economic doldrums. For years, in fact, the ECB has been using quantitative easing to hose down eurozone sovereign bond markets with newly-created money, buying up the debts of eurozone strugglers.
Now sitting on government bonds worth around €5 trillion (£4.3 trillion), the ECB is still making net purchases of over €30 billion a month.

As inflation rises, the spread between yields on German and Italian bonds, the two ends of the eurozone credit risk spectrum, is getting broader. It now stands at around 240 basis points, having more than doubled since the start of the year.
The Germans, Austrians and Dutch, deeply concerned about inflation and sick of bailing-out eurozone laggards, are determined to curtail ECB largesse. The “Club Med” bloc, led by France, wants the money-printing to continue, which is why Lagarde is issuing public warnings that eurozone financial markets are about to collapse.

The stage is indeed set for a re-run of the 2011/12 eurozone crisis. I wonder what the Rejoiners will make of that."
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poolseasider said:
In the Guardian no thanks no different than the Daily Mail- Two ends of the same shitty stick.
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, post: 769728
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
In the opinion of you and the Guardian.
One which as stated above is just the opposite end of a shitty stick to the Daily Mail.
The other one supported the Oyston family.
Both carry very little credence.
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, member: 656"]
Yep. The Guardian. That fine example of political independence
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RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
Yep. The Guardian. That fine example of political independence
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So whats independent then. The right wing rags are generally owned by by mega rich men with v right wing views who more or less impose them on their paper eg Murdoch the Sun, Rothermere the Mail, previously the Barclay brothers the Telegraph. The Guardian not so .
 
A friend of mine has a business in London and was selling a lot to Europe. Became unviable to export in the same way to Europe after Brexit due to high costs and paperwork. So now has a warehouse for distribution in Europe, rather than here. In the longer term likely to move the whole operation to Europe. This is happening throughout the country
 
Chunkylad said:
Thank you to o/p for posting the article
I have to say I thought there would be more in depth analysis in it? Also my northern prejudice kicked in pretty early when the two companies cited as examples of failure were a company in Marlow (lovely place and dripping in money) who named his stationary business “Stewart Superior” and another company on the south coast selling fine art prints.

I am sure there were some good points in the article but I was already irritated….
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Irritation can get in the way....affects businesses across the UK.
 
Any discussion about the economy which ignores the money printing of the last two years is frankly dishonest.
 
Bisphamtang said:
It's a fkn mess . I know it's done and we have to get on with it .
It was mixture of faux patriotism and xenophobia that got it over the line .Economically it was a piss poor idea but we'll survive
Will be difficult to analyse clearly due to the impact of the pandemic and Putins lunatic adventures
On a personal level I really liked the freedom of movement rules and the opportunity to live in many different countries unencumbered by red tape
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Your last point rings a clear bell with me as that was the main reason I moved back to Europe from Brazil in 2020. I would probably have moved back at some point anyway but Brexit made it imperative.
 
Scaramanga said:
Funny that, I read an alternative article this afternoon saying the complete opposite. Guardian, Left wing bias, I assume you can imagine the article I read wasn’t. I just didn’t post mine.
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Is an alternative article similar to alternative facts?
 
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