Foreign Holidays

Supermarkets have been revealed as places where visitors and workers are most likely to be exposed to the coronavirus according to Public Health England as of November 2020.

The Top 3 are:-
  • Supermarket - 18.3%
  • Secondary school - 12.7%
  • Primary school - 10.1%
 
I’d be interested to see exactly what those percentages actually mean. The one consistent thing throughout the pandemic (both in lockdown - R rate below 1) and other times, has been the attendance of Supermarkets.

There were very noticeable / significant increases in transmission rates when education reopened. Also there have been well publicised outbreaks in certain working environments etc..

Contact with others in Supermarkets is fleeting and so I’m struggling to see how it could be such a significant factor. Plus there hasn’t been much evidence to suggest significant transmission in supermarkets. I wonder if these results are simply drawing tenuous links, based on the activity of those who have caught the virus?
 
I’d be interested to see exactly what those percentages actually mean. The one consistent thing throughout the pandemic (both in lockdown - R rate below 1) and other times, has been the attendance of Supermarkets.

Contact with others in Supermarkets is fleeting and so I’m struggling to see how it could be such a significant factor. Plus there hasn’t been much evidence to suggest significant transmission in supermarkets. I wonder if these results are simply drawing tenuous links, based on the activity of those who have caught the virus?

I can't find @Mr Tangerine Man's source but this seems to be based on it: https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-c-transmission-paper.pdf

One thing to note is that supermarkets includes shopping and working but we don't know what proportion each represent, the latter could be an almost ideal transmission route for the virus so potentially quite significant.

There certainly is a risk that the significance of shopping is overstated, being potentially a dustbin category used when people don't know where they caught the virus, or potentially where they don't want to disclose other contacts where they might've caught it from, but whether the study is susceptible to that I don't know.


There were very noticeable / significant increases in transmission rates when education reopened. Also there have been well publicised outbreaks in certain working environments etc..

Co-incidence or causality? There is certainly a seasonal element to this and most other respiritory viruses so we would expect to see an increase in cases regardless of whether schools are open or not.

My guess is it's a mixture, part seasonal, part schools.
 
I can't find @Mr Tangerine Man's source but this seems to be based on it: https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-c-transmission-paper.pdf

One thing to note is that supermarkets includes shopping and working but we don't know what proportion each represent, the latter could be an almost ideal transmission route for the virus so potentially quite significant.

There certainly is a risk that the significance of shopping is overstated, being potentially a dustbin category used when people don't know where they caught the virus, or potentially where they don't want to disclose other contacts where they might've caught it from, but whether the study is susceptible to that I don't know.




Co-incidence or causality? There is certainly a seasonal element to this and most other respiritory viruses so we would expect to see an increase in cases regardless of whether schools are open or not.

My guess is it's a mixture, part seasonal, part schools.

It’s hard to say... As you say, the virus is seasonal and it’s also cyclical and so it’s difficult to understand exactly what is going on, to any degree of certainty.

At the very outset, the scientists were keen to stagger the move into lockdown with phased changes, but the British Public (spurred on by the media) pre-empted the Government and essentially placed ourselves into lockdown.

To that extent, we never really got a handle on the individual impact of certain measures... Coming out of lockdown last Summer seemed to be largely unaffected by the re-opening of much of life as we know it... It was almost like the virus had burned itself out regardless....

Of course, things did start to very gradually increase over time, but it’s difficult to pin an exact cause on that... could be anything from the weather to the effects of some immunity from first wave wearing off, to the impact of closer contact or any combination of causes really... Education then opened just as the second wave was gearing up... so as you say it’s hard to say exactly what impact re-opening schools did or didn’t have...

And of course, once the virus had go a hold, nothing apart from the blunt instrument of ‘National Lockdown’ seemed to work...

Again, I think much of the phased opening up of the economy / society, with some longer breaks in between is about trying to learn much more about the impact of individual measures...

I suppose anywhere where close contact takes place over extended periods is likely to be a risk... To that extent schools seems an obvious source (assuming all ages are equal - and they may not be of course)... Supermarkets less so...
Household and workplaces probably another obvious one as would be pubs, restaurants & nightclubs I suppose.
 
You're rather missing the point, it is your opinion that supermarkets are a major transmission route, but you have no evidence to support that opinion and yet you state it as fact.
Tell you what Lost why don't you just assume from hereon in that everything posted on here is opinion not fact
That way we avoid these constant demands for sources to back up what we say
So far as I am concerned I am stating the bleeding obvious when I reference where the transmission was occurring and it seems that I might be right
Even the gov't is expecting transmission rates to rise from tomorrow - and i wonder why ?
I wonder why we had a huge surge in cases in early September ?
Hopefully with many of the most vulnerable now vaccinated it won't kill as many as last time the schools went back
Personally i would have left it until after Easter - they have only got two-three weeks until the break
 
Does this mean kids & twenty-somethings won't be able to travel abroad for holidays?

The grey tops are going to have a ball this summer with the bars, beach and pools to themselves😄
Anyone up for the foam party?
Given that the working population are facing pay freezes to make up for the economic deficit, and working age benefits will be frozen again, I think it's only fair that pensions are frozen rather than the usual best of three inflation rises. We're all in this together.
 
I’d be interested to see exactly what those percentages actually mean. The one consistent thing throughout the pandemic (both in lockdown - R rate below 1) and other times, has been the attendance of Supermarkets.

There were very noticeable / significant increases in transmission rates when education reopened. Also there have been well publicised outbreaks in certain working environments etc..

Contact with others in Supermarkets is fleeting and so I’m struggling to see how it could be such a significant factor. Plus there hasn’t been much evidence to suggest significant transmission in supermarkets. I wonder if these results are simply drawing tenuous links, based on the activity of those who have caught the virus?
While contact is fleeting, its constant repetition for some, as essential shopping seems to be daily. That must bring additional risk.
 
While contact is fleeting, its constant repetition for some, as essential shopping seems to be daily. That must bring additional risk.
Obviously the more times you are in contact with other people then the risk of transmission is going to increase, but I'm not sure that what you say stacks up. I'm not sure that several short shops are automatically going to be more risky than one long shop, nor that they would necessarily bring you into contact with more people. I think this is just another example of people expressing their inner "Covid Hitler" and searching for reasons why "John at number 35, with the blue Fiesta and unkempt front lawn" might be spreading Covid "Despite us having kept to all the rules and acted like saints" etc...

To my mind it's more about the type of contact you have with other people and the length of time you are likely to be exposed. So to that extent, fleetingly passing people or short but frequent contact is likely to be less of a risk than prolonged close contact. So working environments where you remain in contact for extended periods, schools, households, pubs etc.. would logically be higher risk, due to the way in which contact occurs.
 
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Tell you what Lost why don't you just assume from hereon in that everything posted on here is opinion not fact
That way we avoid these constant demands for sources to back up what we say

What you're actually saying is that you want to pontificate on matters you do not understand without providing a shread of evidence to back it up and be treated as if you are an authority on the subject without being questioned so that you can convince yourself you're much smarter than everyone else including, amongst others, the chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser.

Sorry, I'm not here to stroke your ego, if you want to keep posting your opinion as fact I'll keep pointing out you've no idea what you're talking about.
 
Obviously the more times you are in contact with other people then the risk of transmission is going to increase, but I'm not sure that what you say stacks up. I'm not sure that several short shops are automatically going to be more risky than one long shop, nor that they would necessarily bring you into contact with more people. I think this is just another example of people expressing their inner "Covid Hitler" and searching for reasons why "John at number 35, with the blue Fiesta and unkempt front lawn" might be spreading Covid "Despite us having kept to all the rules and acted like saints" etc...

To my mind it's more about the type of contact you have with other people and the length of time you are likely to be exposed. So to that extent, fleetingly passing people or short but frequent contact is likely to be less of a risk than prolonged close contact. So working environments where you remain in contact for extended periods, schools, households, pubs etc.. would logically be higher risk, due to the way in which contact occurs.
Prolonged indoor contact must be of greater risk, agreed.
 
What you're actually saying is that you want to pontificate on matters you do not understand without providing a shread of evidence to back it up and be treated as if you are an authority on the subject without being questioned so that you can convince yourself you're much smarter than everyone else including, amongst others, the chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser.

Sorry, I'm not here to stroke your ego, if you want to keep posting your opinion as fact I'll keep pointing out you've no idea what you're talking about.
Why don't you enlighten us all then as to where the transmission was occurring when we were all locked down in tier 3 pre-xmas
 
I can't be bothered reading the whole thread but think the o/p comes across as rather petty and bitter. If some people are allowed to go on holiday abroad and not others for a short while, maybe consider that...
- Those that want to go will be a little happier because of it
- The travel industry and those associated with it will be happier
Other people's happiness - is that not allowed because some people are not?
Where do we draw the line? Is nobody allowed to retire this year because millions can't? Or win the lottery etc.
Try to be happy for some other human beings I say...and if you can't just let it go 👍
I imagine the way forward may well become either a vaccination certificate or a recent negative PCR test anyway.
 
Apologies if I come across as bitter
It's not intended
As a fiftysomething I expect to be vaccinated later this month - it was more a case of highlighting a debating point
At the time i posted the thread my issue was more centred on the equity of that to the younger adults however as the thread has developed what's actually I think of greater importance to us all is the risks allowing foreign travel as early as is currently being suggested by some will carry with it
Let's remember that as things stand we can't even meet family member in the garden , travel beyond your locality for social purposes is banned until at least 29/3 whilst we won't be able to meet in groups over 30 until 21/6 at the earliest
Whilst the roadmap out of lockdown provides a useful guide these are the earliest dates for relaxation and so all the talk of foreign holidays just seems premature to me - particularly as we are ahead of the game on vaccine rollout compared with most other countries and the concerns that have been expressed about new strains
As I recall the Gov't are going to ask a taskforce to report on global travel Hopefully they will adopt a conservative approach as the last thing we need in my opinion is to undo all that's been achieved.
 
I can't be bothered reading the whole thread but think the o/p comes across as rather petty and bitter. If some people are allowed to go on holiday abroad and not others for a short while, maybe consider that...
- Those that want to go will be a little happier because of it
- The travel industry and those associated with it will be happier
Other people's happiness - is that not allowed because some people are not?
Where do we draw the line? Is nobody allowed to retire this year because millions can't? Or win the lottery etc.
Try to be happy for some other human beings I say...and if you can't just let it go 👍
I imagine the way forward may well become either a vaccination certificate or a recent negative PCR test anyway.

There's actually a bigger problem with the OP's suggestion.

If those who are vaccinated can go overseas it frees up the supply of UK holidays for those who can't.

If you block those that can travel from travelling in the name of "fairness" then they'll buy up all the UK holidays and those that can't travel can't access them either.

Thus in the interests of fairness he ends up shafting those that can't travel even harder.
 
Once the vaccine has been rolled out to the most vulnerable groups & assuming it does what it says on the tin then foreign travel can begin. I don't get this obsession with some, give the UK a go this year. I served my time with a bloke who loved the UK but he would say re going abroad, you buy your sunshine & that's it, I had to laugh when he came back on one occasion & it had pissed down.
What were you in for?
 
Because it's part of the annual debt cycle that society requires you to enter, Christmas and Summer holidays. Spend spend spend!
I partly agree with that but if you go to quirkier places in Europe out of season it is so much cheaper than here and I actually really like the food, architecture, culture etc
I just like seeing different things to the UK on occasion, and a bit of sunshine is pleasant as well.
And our winters are bleak, damp, grey and long, I'm out in it every day so the thought of traipsing over deforested moorland or visiting another generic English high street isn't very exciting!
I know there is a bit more than that, but not too much.
 
I’m 62 and my wife is 56 both had our first jabs in the last couple of weeks. Second jabs in May and straight off on holiday. Bollocks to you young ones who’ve caused all the problems. Give me my vaccine passport.
I thought it was the Chinese that caused the problems???
 
We all know why schools have been allowed back Hancock let the cat out of the bag the other week when asked can the dates be changed April/May & June.
His reply no because each stage takes 5 weeks to assess the data from the previous change in Lockdown rules so basically Pubs may open in April(outside) but if the figures go up not in May and it wont happen next month if the same happens with students.
School Children= Guinea pigs for the experiment.
 
Given how far behind a lot of countries are we shouldn't be travelling abroad when we exit lockdown if they aren't caught up, we should wait until they do.

Some eu countries are expecting a third wave given their slow response and other factors.

Let's all stay in the UK when we come out of lockdown, giving time for all to be vaccinated who want it...

This would massively help the UK finances and be a boost for everyone here.

These loads of good places to go here, yes abroad is good but there's tons to see here.

Also bringing in other variants is another risk from abroad, given the caution so far may be slightly reckless to just assume all back to complete normal and mix with thr world.

Given weve had nothing to do for many months, being fully open as the UK would be enough if others aren't ready yet.

Support the UK and UK business 👍🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

Having said all that still think some will be cautious and choose UK anyway, but this is an interesting approach from Greece, to vaccinate all those on small islands first, suppose thats one way of making it safe tbf.


From the article not clear when it'll be done by though...

"Mr Theoharis did not state when the vaccine rollout on the islands would be completed, saying the pace of progress "depends on how many vaccines we receive in a couple of months' time".


He added that Britons wanting to enter Greece this summer will need one of the following: a certificate showing they have been vaccinated; proof that they have antibodies against the virus; or a test to show they are negative."

So all you need is a test....

Wonder if airlines will screw people over too with prices if there is a rush to book, may help some decide UK is better choice also....
 
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It's very noticeable that the holiday firms are going mad on TV adverts.
I'm doing nothing until we get the O.K.
We've actually got a Rhine/Mosel River Cruise which was booked early last year, but still waiting for the O.K.
 
I'm with you

Would be a bit of a kick in the teeth to see ' the grey pound ' off spending their money abroad after the lockdown that was put in place to protect them whilst the U40's are forced to stay in the UK
“The grey pound” cheeky sod“ Silver fox in my case!
 
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