G7 - Ukraine

M

Matesrates

Well-known member
Meeting today in Germany with Ukraine and the war top of the agenda. Their dilemma is that some like Germany, France and Italy favour a settlement that ends the war with Russia keeping some territory gained, while others want to strengthen resolve to push Russia out of Ukraine completely. The food and cost of living crisis is weighing heavily as well, as many countries in the south see this as a European problem and that the sanctions are causing the pain.

What do we think, should Putin be humiliated and kicked out of Ukraine, or should there be a negotiated settlement which gives him some territory and therefore he can claim victory. the first option will of course be costly for all of us.
 
Ukraine is about to fold. Hence the meetings.

The Americans/UK want their new forever-war to be a low intensity conflict in Eastern Europe that they can funnel billions of taxpayers money into to prop up the MIC and try to bleed Russia.

What they have done is show that the West's soft power no longer carries the same threat it used to. Western attempts to wage economic warfare on Russia have backfired upon their own citizens, and hence is shown to be little more than a paper tiger.

This will prove that other countries can throw their hand in with the Russia/China bloc without the hitherto expected consequences.

China will retake Taiwan before the end of Biden's term.
 
Tough one this. Cede territory and sue to get the grain moving again, and Putin sees a soft Europe that he can exploit further. It would also send a message to Ukraine that there is a price that the West will accept - despite all the rhetoric.

On the other hand, doubling down on the defence of Ukraine will be costly and will likely lead to a long term recession, certainly in Europe. I'm still inclined to go with the latter. Bullies are never truly bought-off and the world needs to be rid of Putin and his Mafia Government once and for all.
 
its simple you stop pumping weapons into Ukraine and you end this madness immediately. Hundreds of Ukranians killed or badly wounded daily. How long do you allow these poor people to be injured like this?
 
Will they be all flying on on private jets ? Dialogue is always good, however I’ll be surprised if there’s any outcome from this meeting.
 
Ormergod said:
its simple you stop pumping weapons into Ukraine and you end this madness immediately. Hundreds of Ukranians killed or badly wounded daily. How long do you allow these poor people to be injured like this?
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Stop the pumping of weapons in to Ukraine and that figure will rise to thousands daily.

The war is still going on today because of the weapons the west have sent and probably saved Kiev in the process by destroying hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles in that huge convoy we all witnessed.

Putin thought this war (sorry special mission) would be over in 2-3 weeks my how wrong he was.
 
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I wonder what the overall cost is of holding this meeting, private planes, accommodation, security etc., you would think in these days of climate change and cost of living crisis, they could do this by zoom.
 
tangerine.com said:
Putin would walk roughshod over Ukraine if we didn’t step in. That’s what tyrants do.
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He is doing anyway, albeit slower than he expected. They’ve started bombing Kyiv now, so it looks as if he hasn’t settled for the east and south of Ukraine. Sanctions haven’t stopped him, weapons we’ve supplied have slowed him down, but not stopped him.
 
Matesrates said:
He is doing anyway, albeit slower than he expected. They’ve started bombing Kyiv now, so it looks as if he hasn’t settled for the east and south of Ukraine. Sanctions haven’t stopped him, weapons we’ve supplied have slowed him down, but not stopped him.
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Ukraine are fighting virtually on their own. We have to step in at some point otherwise tyrant Putin will carry on hiding behind the skirt that is the Kremlin destroying life.
 
Matesrates said:
I wonder what the overall cost is of holding this meeting, private planes, accommodation, security etc., you would think in these days of climate change and cost of living crisis, they could do this by zoom.
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The image of world leaders meeting close to Ukraine is a big one.
 
Matesrates said:
Their dilemma is that some like Germany, France and Italy favour a settlement that ends the war with Russia keeping some territory gained, while others want to strengthen resolve to push Russia out of Ukraine completely.
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The problem is that no kind of settlement is possible, Putin has already demonstrated that his "promises" are worthless, thus a cease-fire would simply be an opportunity for his forces to rest and regroup before he comes back for another bite of the cherry in a few months, maybe a year's time.

Once he has all of Ukraine he'll start looking for the next target, maybe one of the Baltic states, maybe Poland, maybe Finland.

Do France, Germany, Italy not get this, or do they just not care?
 
Lost Seasider said:
The problem is that no kind of settlement is possible, Putin has already demonstrated that his "promises" are worthless, thus a cease-fire would simply be an opportunity for his forces to rest and regroup before he comes back for another bite of the cherry in a few months, maybe a year's time.

Once he has all of Ukraine he'll start looking for the next target, maybe one of the Baltic states, maybe Poland, maybe Finland.

Do France, Germany, Italy not get this, or do they just not care?
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Do they have any recourse that is actually realistic and effective? Europe is ailing: Its embrace of globalism has led to its own strategic security being far too vulnerable to outside states.

It tried to use economic warfare and failed. What is left to them but diplomacy or bullets?
 
19 missile strikes on Kyiv overnight, it’s clear Putin is intent on taking the whole of Ukraine, not just the east and south, while the G7 leaders express outrage and declare unity, It’s not enough. The only way he can be stopped is direct involvement in some way, whether that be in the air or on the ground, but they’re too scared of the consequences. When Ukraine falls they’ll again express outrage and say they did everything they could, pointing out the billions they spent trying to stop it and expressing unity should Putin invade again.
 
Tjhe main problem being that if the West did get heavily involved there would obviously be many deaths on the Western countries.
The first death would be taken very badly by the country he/she is from.
The leaders from those countries are only too aware of what real involvement would mean.
Where do you draw the line?
 
Davepick said:
Tjhe main problem being that if the West did get heavily involved there would obviously be many deaths on the Western countries.
The first death would be taken very badly by the country he/she is from.
The leaders from those countries are only too aware of what real involvement would mean.
Where do you draw the line?
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That’s the big question those leaders have to answer Dave, where do we draw the line? Is it negotiating territory gained? Can Ukraine and the west accept that? What if he goes further to try to take the whole of Ukraine? What if Belarus gets involved? You would think they’ve drawn the line somewhere balancing risk.
 
Matesrates said:
He is doing anyway, albeit slower than he expected. They’ve started bombing Kyiv now, so it looks as if he hasn’t settled for the east and south of Ukraine. Sanctions haven’t stopped him, weapons we’ve supplied have slowed him down, but not stopped him.
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US Intelligence said this week that the longer the war goes on the better it will be for Ukraine's chances of success. Russia's forces are on their last legs when it comes to vehicles and weapons. WW2 tanks are being wheeled out from scrap yards and Russian pilots in their 50/60s have been captured. Ukraine on the other hand will get newer and more sophisticated missiles, drones and howitzers and will be ready to push the Russkies back when they're in place.
 
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tommytwojags said:
US Intelligence said this week that the longer the war goes on the better it will be for Ukraine's chances of success. Russia's forces are on their last legs when it comes to vehicles and weapons. WW2 tanks are being wheeled out from scrap yards and pilots in their 50/60s have been captured. Ukraine on the other hand will get newer and more sophisticated missiles, drones and howitzers and will be ready to push the Russkies back when they're in place.
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Hopefully
 
Winter will have a big say in this for all sorts of reasons. However. the vacillation from the likes of France and Germany relates to the weak strategic positions of their political leadership. For instance Le Pen is eating away at Macron's power base and my understanding is she is supportive of Putin.

I think it needs the political courage to take the hit, turn off the Russian gas, support Ukraine and see out the year with renewed resolve. I don't expect this to happen though, because Europe can't organise itself and the US is not really there to help as sleepy Joe is nowhere to be seen and in grave danger of handing office back to Trump.
 
Unfortunately Putin is too well guarded, otherwise we could get a hitman to polish him off.
I feel fairly sure that the Russian people couldn't care less about Ukraine and want this war to end.
Freedom of speech is a 'No-No' in Russia.
What Putin says. happens.
 

Russia defaults on debt for first time since 1998 – reports | Russia | The Guardian

Kremlin owes about $40bn but has been shut out of international financial system since invasion of Ukraine
amp.theguardian.com amp.theguardian.com
I wouldn’t say the West’s ‘soft’ response is having no impact at all as Russia defaults on debt repayments for the first time in decades.
The Russian oil price cap that‘s currently under debate would also hurt.

No one said going down the route of causing economic pain to Russia would be quick or easy, but it’s an option we have to keep ploughing ahead with.
 
Lala said:

Russia defaults on debt for first time since 1998 – reports | Russia | The Guardian

Kremlin owes about $40bn but has been shut out of international financial system since invasion of Ukraine
amp.theguardian.com amp.theguardian.com
I wouldn’t say the West’s ‘soft’ response is having no impact at all as Russia defaults on debt repayments for the first time in decades.
The Russian oil price cap that‘s currently under debate would also hurt.

No one said going down the route of causing economic pain to Russia would be quick or easy, but it’s an option we have to keep ploughing ahead with.
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They’ve only defaulted because the banking sanctions won’t allow them to pay. It’s just a technicality.
 
tommytwojags said:
US Intelligence said this week that the longer the war goes on the better it will be for Ukraine's chances of success. Russia's forces are on their last legs when it comes to vehicles and weapons. WW2 tanks are being wheeled out from scrap yards and pilots in their 50/60s have been captured. Ukraine on the other hand will get newer and more sophisticated missiles, drones and howitzers and will be ready to push the Russkies back when they're in place.
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Hope so. The Russians have an airforce that hasn't been used properly yet. They also have a large army that can last some time yet.
 
While Nato stays out of the present conflict other than providing hardware, then Putin can carry on flattening one city/town after anothe at the same time wearing the defenders down.
I doutbt he will take on Nato, the losses in Ukraine have been bad enough without taking on another front but as I said in February the next flashpoint could be the heavily Russian Kaliningrad area , now that could involve a Nato member, hence a game changer in this current situation.
Is there a Red line, a situation where Nato would intervene directly in Ukraine, well I suppose if the Russians used chemical weapons that might be a bridge to far for the west and a war not seen in Europe since WW2 might be on the cards.
 
Whitstabletangerine said:
While Nato stays out of the present conflict other than providing hardware, then Putin can carry on flattening one city/town after anothe at the same time wearing the defenders down.
I doutbt he will take on Nato, the losses in Ukraine have been bad enough without taking on another front but as I said in February the next flashpoint could be the heavily Russian Kaliningrad area , now that could involve a Nato member, hence a game changer in this current situation.
Is there a Red line, a situation where Nato would intervene directly in Ukraine, well I suppose if the Russians used chemical weapons that might be a bridge to far for the west and a war not seen in Europe since WW2 might be on the cards.
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My guess would be that if NATO got involved, it would be to push Russia out and no more. Whilst that's the plan there's a chance of keeping things localised. Although, with an idiot like Putin, who knows. All I would say to that is that the moment a tactical nuke is released by Putin, all bets are off.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
My guess would be that if NATO got involved, it would be to push Russia out and no more. Whilst that's the plan there's a chance of keeping things localised. Although, with an idiot like Putin, who knows. All I would say to that is that the moment a tactical nuke is released by Putin, all bets are off.
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He’s also said that London would be his first target if www3 was declared.
 
Ukraine need to start raining bombs and missiles into Russian towns/cities close to the border, really surprised they’ve not chosen to do it so far.

The Russians indiscriminately do it in Ukraine so it would be fully justified and would piss Putin off no end.
 
Jaffa_The_Hut said:
Ukraine need to start raining bombs and missiles into Russian towns/cities close to the border, really surprised they’ve not chosen to do it so far.

The Russians indiscriminately do it in Ukraine so it would be fully justified.
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FoR some reason, that would be seen as an act of war.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Hope so. The Russians have an airforce that hasn't been used properly yet. They also have a large army that can last some time yet.
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Putin has been reluctant to use his airforce because of the significant losses incurred early on in the conflict and the accuracy of the mainly British anti-aircraft missiles. As for the army, Putin could still declare war against Ukraine, which would empower him to legally conscript at will. This could bring more than a million new troops into their armed forces, but they would be like Dads' Army with few weapons.
 
Matesrates said:
They’ve only defaulted because the banking sanctions won’t allow them to pay. It’s just a technicality.
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It's a technicality that could persist for years, even if they are eventually able to access the bonds markets again, the investors will know that similar "technicalities" could happen again.
 
tommytwojags said:
Putin has been reluctant to use his airforce because of the significant losses incurred early on in the conflict and the accuracy of the mainly British anti-aircraft missiles. As for the army, Putin could still declare war against Ukraine, which would empower him to legally conscript at will. This could bring more than a million new troops into their armed forces, but they would be like Dads' Army with few weapons.
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Agree the first bit but there's more to Russia than we think.
 
Those pictures of that Russian missile attack on a shopping mall in that Ukrainian city of Kremenchuck are just shocking.
1,000 people were inside at the time, 13 people killed and many more are expected to be pulled out dead as the night goes on.
 
It’s ratcheting up, the new head of the army General Sanders saying this is a 1937 moment and we must prepare all ranks to get ready, train hard and engage. In addition Ben Wallace will ask for defence spending to be increased to 2.5% by 2028 and of course Nato is increasing the number of troops on high alert from 40,000, to over 300,000. I guess the big question is whether sleepy Joe wakes up.
 
18 confirmed dead now and over 50 injured many with serious injuries.

Russia has once again denied it attacks civilian buildings.
 
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