Viruses when they mutate tend to become less deadly but can be more infectious. It’s an organic survival strategy for them. Killing the host before it can spread is not in the virus’ interest. Yes, I realise viruses do not think and I am being somewhat anthropomorphic. But this virus is so infectious it can infect millions of people quickly and that’s where the statistical randomness of gene mutation comes in.
The more cases, into the millions, then the greater the number of mutations. Many mutations could be benign and can render the virus less infectious and these variants will die out, or more infectious and less deadly so they become endemic (always around). But one or two mutations amongst them all can produce the vicious strains which we see in India because of the millions of cases. And we let people travel into the UK from India with no restrictions while this was building, although we knew about it.
The serious issue with this Indian variant, along with its greater infection rate, is that it has been seen to strongly attack the under-40s, and that’s by far the largest age group in India with its relatively young population, which is why it caught on. That’s a problem for the UK too because we only just started vaxxing this younger age group so many could still get sick. Add in the transmissibility within the Asian population in towns and you can see why the scientists are worried about hospital admission numbers in certain areas.
If they do go for local lockdowns, then that has to include a huge surrounding area. There is no point in locking down just Bolton or Blackburn, as people will just go into Manchester, Chorley or Preston to carry on as normal. Lockdowns have to extend out as far as rural areas, where life styles are different, and which are too far for those in Bolton to casually travel to.
Focusing the vaxx efforts for all adults 18+ in these regions with the Indian variant seems a good policy rather than diffusing efforts into Northumbria and Cornwall etc. But the take-up really has to be almost enforced. I did say “almost”, but every effort has to be taken to get council and community leaders with the programme. If we can fine people £1000 for illegally meeting indoors, what can we do for those who will not take a jab? We might not be able to punish them or remove rights, but can we withdraw certain privileges? Or simply, should we just bribe them in some way? Those with rigid views can often be loosened with the lubricant of cash. Frankly, whatever works, it’s in all our best interests.
But we have to be careful not to unfairly blame the ethnic communities for this, otherwise we encourage discrimination. The initial blame lies at the feet of authorities who dilly-dallied when they became aware of the risk. We need clear and rapid decisions. Ironically, they probably delayed because they were afraid of being seen as racially discriminating against certain ethnic groups ! We need clear thinkers in Govt and we appear to have woolly-thinking Oxbridge Arts graduates, more concerned with their reputations than reality.