Indian Variant Out-Competing other UK variants

Stand firm, June 21st is the end in the UK. And if Boris thinks he’s going to cage me for much longer he can go and fuck himself. It’s over.

I really hope so, I would have agreed with you this morning but reading about the Indian variant more & seeing cases on the rise particularly in Bolton & Blackburn is worrying me. Especially that they haven’t ruled out taking local action if needs, you know what that results in when precious London isn’t involved 😤
 
Stand firm, June 21st is the end in the UK. And if Boris thinks he’s going to cage me for much longer he can go and fuck himself. It’s over.
I think you have a point...

I mean locking us up because people are losing their lives is one thing. Locking us up because, the new variant might increase and if it does then that might increase the chance of another mutation, which might be resistant to the virus etc... is all a bit much...

I mean if we’re going down that road they could literally justify locking down for any old bollocks.
 
the figures say 129,000 people saying its not true its the stats and why would they lie i agree with the figures

There's 3 different measures of Covid deaths as far as the UK is concerned:
  • 127,650 deaths within 28 days of a positive test;
  • 152,700 deaths with Covid mentioned on the death certificate;
  • 119,320 excess deaths, being the number of deaths above what would be expected over the period;
plus potentially hundreds of other measures in other countries.

When making comparisions between countries (which was the point of my OP) excess deaths is the measure to use because other measures are not comparable and some countries are substantially under-reporting the number of Covid deaths they've suffered.

Thus for example, according to the official death count we've suffered nearly twice as many Covid deaths as Italy, whereas the reality is that we're a long way behind them, and the same applies to a lot of other countries as well.
 
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If my warnings ahead of each wave has helped to save the life of one Pool fan, then that's good enough for me.

Serious question BHOK.

Are you suggesting that we should remain in lockdown forever ?

What needs to happen for us to come out of lockdown ?


Sorry BHOK, second question should have asked what needs to happen for you to be happy with the UK coming out of lockdown, obviously all we need to come out of lockdown is for the Government to say so.
 
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Australia even stopped their cricketers from returning from the IPL so you could ask why we couldn't???
They all quarantined for 10 days on return and got tested regularly. I’d like to think that is good enough.

If it hasn’t already been in circulation over the last month or so then I imagine the main contributing factor will have been the few days from the red list announcement to the actual travel ban from India, when many were flying back. Not a handful of professional cricketers who will have followed the quarantine rules strictly, because if they didn’t they’d have been found out, unlike probably hundreds, possibly thousands of others who aren’t in the public eye.
 
We messed up again by not just closing the borders as soon as they found out and not giving thousands of people from India being able to travel back here as they gave them several days before they did close them. Pathetic really and we keep doing it.

I think we will be pretty much okay this year with the rate of vaccinations etc., but I seriously doubt there will be many people going on holiday abroad in the next couple of years, other countries are in disarray.

A trip to the pub, a meal in a restaurant, live music, theatre, live sport and holidays in the UK will do very nicely as far as I'm concerned for the foreseeable.
 
Exactly the left wing media love it. Broadcasting live outside the nearest mortuary they can find. Spewing false information. If you fell off a ladder with COVID it would still count or if you were going to die anyway it still counts. Don’t ever believe the MSM and stop paying a licence fee to a bunch of pedos.
The BBC report whatever the Government tell them to report, are the Government left wing?
 
We messed up again by not just closing the borders as soon as they found out and not giving thousands of people from India being able to travel back here as they gave them several days before they did close them. Pathetic really and we keep doing it.

I think we will be pretty much okay this year with the rate of vaccinations etc., but I seriously doubt there will be many people going on holiday abroad in the next couple of years, other countries are in disarray.

A trip to the pub, a meal in a restaurant, live music, theatre, live sport and holidays in the UK will do very nicely as far as I'm concerned for the foreseeable.
There was actually a two week delay - Pakistan and Bangladesh were placed on the list on April 9 despite having similar Covid rates to India, which was only placed on the red list on April 23.

Nothing to do with Boris's planned trip to India of course

And then we gave an extraordinary pre-warning to those who might want to return without compulsory hotel quarantine leading to a rush back - and let's get it right the compliance rate for self-quarantine won't have been high
 
I’m just commenting on the stupidity of excluding India from the red listed countries and the extraordinary signposting given before it was belated added

The fact that the spikes are in areas with high Asian populations can’t be a coincidence

We’ve all been through a tough winter and were in the cusp of freedom and then they do this

It was so predictable and frankly very annoying
 
I just don’t get it - zero evidence this strain can evade vaccines and zero evidence that it’s more deadly. Why are people shitting themselves?

Because it is in certain areas that have previous for bad figures and they only go one way usually which then spreads to other areas i.e Preston.

Whether this is down to people totally disregarding rules or crowded populations or just unfortunate I’ll leave for everyone to form their own opinion.
 
Let's face it. The communities this strain is spreading through are the same ones who will not have the vaccine or follow restrictions. This will always be the case. There has been ample opportunity for eligible age groups and vulnerable people to have received the vaccine should they choose to. We can't keep destroying businesses and peoples mental health by keeping/stepping up restrictions because of this.
It's their choice so let them get on with it and leave the rest of us to get on with life and get the country up and running again.
 
The one positive at the moment is deaths & hospital admissions remain low as I think a lot of the cases are in the younger generation who don’t pose much of a risk to dying or ending up in hospital but of course there will be some.

Hopefully the government is just being extra cautious and the figures don’t jump up in the next week or two which are crucial.

The last thing any of us want is to be back in lockdown which is why this is so frustrating and worrying.

Better to be safe than sorry I guess so hopefully in a month or so this will have blown over.
 
I just don’t get it - zero evidence this strain can evade vaccines and zero evidence that it’s more deadly. Why are people shitting themselves?


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It's a mass hysteria. Has been from the start. But I wouldn't wait around for grown men to admit they've been hysterical, or for an arrogant society to stop believing they are too sophisticated and modern for this to happen to them. I definitely wouldn't wait for those controlling the levers of hysteria to give it up and call off the dogs. One look at Matt Hancock should set alarm bells off for anyone, he is having far too much fun. As are many of our esteemed advisors who now appear to be struggling to cope with their looming slip back into obscurity.

All anyone can do is start getting on with life.
 
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Eventually Covid will be so transmissible that it will be chasing us down the street in a Porsche 9/11, sneaking down our chimneys on Christmas Eve and wrapping all our windows and checking all our locks, to make sure we’re all in bed for 8 O’clock.

The way this bullshit is emerging I’m starting to wonder if the conspiracy theorists are right.

Why exactly have we bothered vaccinating 40 million people in order to “prevent the worst effects of the virus” if we intend to simply lockdown due to transmission rather than death.... ?

Sounds to me like a backwards way of saying that the vaccine is ** useless.
 
Eventually Covid will be so transmissible that it will be chasing us down the street in a Porsche 9/11, sneaking down our chimneys on Christmas Eve and wrapping all our windows and checking all our locks, to make sure we’re all in bed for 8 O’clock.

The way this bullshit is emerging I’m starting to wonder if the conspiracy theorists are right.

Why exactly have we bothered vaccinating 40 million people in order to “prevent the worst effects of the virus” if we intend to simply lockdown due to transmission rather than death.... ?

Sounds to me like a backwards way of saying that the vaccine is ** useless.
Because if left unchecked, this strain like all others will mutate and mutate again and probably find a way past the vaccines.
 
Eventually Covid will be so transmissible that it will be chasing us down the street in a Porsche 9/11, sneaking down our chimneys on Christmas Eve and wrapping all our windows and checking all our locks, to make sure we’re all in bed for 8 O’clock.

The way this bullshit is emerging I’m starting to wonder if the conspiracy theorists are right.

Why exactly have we bothered vaccinating 40 million people in order to “prevent the worst effects of the virus” if we intend to simply lockdown due to transmission rather than death.... ?

Sounds to me like a backwards way of saying that the vaccine is ** useless.
And God help you if you've got alcohol in your hand!
 
Because if left unchecked, this strain like all others will mutate and mutate again and probably find a way past the vaccines.
Like all others?

Like when the SA strain spread through SA like wildfire and can now not be stopped by any vaccine ... oh wait yes it can.

Like when the Brazilian strain spread through Brazil like wildfire and can now not be stopped by any vaccine ... oh wait yes it can.

You can’t just keep restrictions because something MIGHT happen. There is no evidence so far this thing can beat vaccines, so let’s crack on.
 
There was actually a two week delay - Pakistan and Bangladesh were placed on the list on April 9 despite having similar Covid rates to India, which was only placed on the red list on April 23.

Nothing to do with Boris's planned trip to India of course

And then we gave an extraordinary pre-warning to those who might want to return without compulsory hotel quarantine leading to a rush back - and let's get it right the compliance rate for self-quarantine won't have been high
It was staggeringly incompetent, Wreckless and culpable.
 
Because if left unchecked, this strain like all others will mutate and mutate again and probably find a way past the vaccines.
Flu could mutate, mutate and mutate and turn into a killer nightmare disease which plucks out your eyes and eats your flesh alive, but so long as it’s not actually doing that, we can’t lock ourselves up on the off chance.
 
I’m just commenting on the stupidity of excluding India from the red listed countries and the extraordinary signposting given before it was belated added

The fact that the spikes are in areas with high Asian populations can’t be a coincidence

We’ve all been through a tough winter and were in the cusp of freedom and then they do this

It was so predictable and frankly very annoying

Was just reading an illuminating Twitter thread on this; pure incompetence (again):

 
If the Government think it will be a good idea to lock down again I suggest they take a look at the deaths and illnesses in all other categories. You may save 100 people from the Indian COVID variant but you may kill 500 from missed diagnosis and failed operations of other critical illnesses. The vaccines work and can be tweaked to suit mutations, unlock the door and get on with it.
 
Over 10,000 people eligible for the vaccine in Bolton have still not taken up the offer. Why ?
 
It’s amazing that a couple of days before another batch of restrictions are lifted the news is full of doom and gloom, it’s like the Truman Show this.

There is currently no evidence that the Indian variant evades the vaccines, that is the official line. Are people deliberately ignoring this?

The maddest thing for me is when you dare to question anything you are classed as being selfish or a conspiracy theorist yet grown men are actually fretting about a variant with no evidence to suggest it evades the vaccine? Work that one out cos I’m struggling.
 
TAM is right of course. But this is merely another example of the gross mismanagement of the governments response to the pandemic. The media has been complicit by adding hysteria and fear, and the majority of the public seems to think that 'Boris is doing a good job'.

He claims to be driven by the data, yet the opposite is true. The current data tells us that whilst the Indian variant is more transmissible it is not leading to increased levels of sickness or death. Yet.

Unlike previous occasions the majority of the at-risk population have been vaccinated, so the hysterical types (see this thread) cannot use past data to justify their ultra conservative risk averse stance.

We are living through a pandemic. The number of deaths (whatever the actual figures are) has been tragic, and indeed too high in the UK, but we cannot ignore the consequences of an ultra risk-averse strategy. Going forward we cannot continue to prop up large numbers of people on furlough, or businesses on grants. Equally we cannot merely allow these people to add to the unemployment figures.

If there ever was a time to be 'driven by the data' rather than panic and fear then this is it.

There are some bold decisions to be made. Let's hope Boris gets his act together.
 
Why do scientists think it’s 50% more transmissible?
And there will be 10,000 hospitalisations each day within a month according to the scientists😱. How many different scientific groups are spreading fear around with these early indicators when not enough data is available yet and may not be for 2-3 weeks. If they decide to lockdown Blackburn and Darwen it won’t just be the town’s it will be Lancashire!
 
I just don’t get it - zero evidence this strain can evade vaccines and zero evidence that it’s more deadly. Why are people shitting themselves?
Its about how transmittable it is. If it is significantly more transmittable than the Kent variant then cases will rise exponetially as we ease lockdown with hospitalisations and deaths following. Hospitalisations and deaths will be significantly lower than if there was no effective vaccination but the NHS will probably be overwhelmed if the transmittability is 40 % greater than the Kent variant and there is no reversing of lockdown easing.

At the moment the transmittability is still debatable so hopefully the worst case scenarios won't come to pass.

And remember just because you are vaccinated doesn't mean you are immune though your chances of becoming ill or dying are massively reduced.
 
And there will be 10,000 hospitalisations each day within a month according to the scientists😱. How many different scientific groups are spreading fear around with these early indicators when not enough data is available yet and may not be for 2-3 weeks. If they decide to lockdown Blackburn and Darwen it won’t just be the town’s it will be Lancashire!
You model different scenarios based on transmittability - if you modelled a 100 % increase in transmittability and that showed marginal impact on the NHS then there would be no conversation to be had. As a 40 % increase in transmittability puts NHS at risk of being overwhelmed there is definitely a risk. Hopefully transmittability is more like 10 % or so and this variant will only have a marginal effect.
 
You model different scenarios based on transmittability - if you modelled a 100 % increase in transmittability and that showed marginal impact on the NHS then there would be no conversation to be had. As a 40 % increase in transmittability puts NHS at risk of being overwhelmed there is definitely a risk. Hopefully transmittability is more like 10 % or so and this variant will only have a marginal effect.
Correct. New cases will continue to happen until as a minimum heard immunity kicks in. Step 3 starts Monday and this coupled with the Indian variant could shape the the future for the pandemic in this country. But the government and scientists were expecting increases across all criteria from Phase 1A&B and Phase 2 and it didn’t happen.
 
Why do scientists think it’s 50% more transmissible?
It seems to me that transmissibility could be affected by a whole range of factors, especially when you are comparing one variant vs another.

Firstly, the Indian variant in particular is likely to be prevalent within a community that a) are more likely to have travelled to India, b) have multi generational families & c) are less likely to have been vaccinated. To that extent it is being kickstarted in a community that is more prone to quick transmission.

Secondly, the Kent variant has been around for a while and therefore specific immunity may well have developed. So the Kent variant may well be slowing down. To that extent, it might not be a case that the Indian variant is MORE transmissible, but rather that the Kent variant has become LESS transmissible.
 
It seems to me that transmissibility could be affected by a whole range of factors, especially when you are comparing one variant vs another.

Firstly, the Indian variant in particular is likely to be prevalent within a community that a) are more likely to have travelled to India, b) have multi generational families & c) are less likely to have been vaccinated. To that extent it is being kickstarted in a community that is more prone to quick transmission.

Secondly, the Kent variant has been around for a while and therefore specific immunity may well have developed. So the Kent variant may well be slowing down. To that extent, it might not be a case that the Indian variant is MORE transmissible, but rather that the Kent variant has become LESS transmissible.
and d) live in a 2 up 2 down with about 50 others!
 
Here you have it in a nutshell ....

Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, had warned on Friday that a more transmissible B.1.617.2 variant would mean “a really significant surge” in infections, as he predicted the variant could become the most dominant strain across the UK.

“As Chris Whitty said yesterday, it’s possible [it could be more transmissible], but equally it could be much less more transmissible, if that makes sense,” Argar told BBC Breakfast on Saturday.
 
It seems to me that transmissibility could be affected by a whole range of factors, especially when you are comparing one variant vs another.

Firstly, the Indian variant in particular is likely to be prevalent within a community that a) are more likely to have travelled to India, b) have multi generational families & c) are less likely to have been vaccinated. To that extent it is being kickstarted in a community that is more prone to quick transmission.

Secondly, the Kent variant has been around for a while and therefore specific immunity may well have developed. So the Kent variant may well be slowing down. To that extent, it might not be a case that the Indian variant is MORE transmissible, but rather that the Kent variant has become LESS transmissible.
Correct. That is why it still unknown - on face value it looks like it has a significantly higher transmittability but there are many factors that might be contributing to that. Hopefully, once more information is available, it can be determined that it is not significantly worse. On the converse if it is significantly worse then we could have a problem unless it is stamped down upon firmly in the next few weeks.
 
Just think how this could have been so different. If only we were an island and had a government obsessed with border control. If only......
 
BREAKING: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced that due to the new Indian covid variant people will now be offered the Pun jab
Please start taking this Indian Covid Variant seriously !! my neighbour caught it and has been in a korma for a week and he's only just buried his naan.

Victor

Brilliant that and you've won this thread.

If you can't laugh what can you do ?
 

Looks as if the op may have been right after all.

Mex

He's not right but I'm sure he will be one day.

Even you will be right on something one day Mex.

I will refer you to a saying about acorns and blind squirrels so that you are ready for my response when you are eventually right about something. :)
 
Mex

He's not right but I'm sure he will be one day.

Even you will be right on something one day Mex.

I will refer you to a saying about acorns and blind squirrels so that you are ready for my response when you are eventually right about something. :)
Well why don’t you reread the op?

And then reread the comments by PM yesterday.

And then tell us where the difference lies.

Unless you think Boris was talking bollux of course. In which case it’d be fair for you to say so was the op.
 
Well why don’t you reread the op?

And then reread the comments by PM yesterday.

And then tell us where the difference lies.

Unless you think Boris was talking bollux of course. In which case it’d be fair for you to say so was the op.

Maybe an idea to to lighten up a little Mex.

I wasn't being overly serious.

Apologies for any offence caused though.
 
Exactly the left wing media love it. Broadcasting live outside the nearest mortuary they can find. Spewing false information. If you fell off a ladder with COVID it would still count or if you were going to die anyway it still counts. Don’t ever believe the MSM and stop paying a licence fee to a bunch of pedos.
Tories can't catch something they don't believe in. Free market at its most extreme.
 
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