Indian variant

Lost why do Bangladesh and Pakistan go on the red list with lower transmission rates and India doesn't between 9th and 23rd April?

And why do we give 4 days notice on the imposition of the change allowing a dash back

20k people came into this country from India over that period
 
They’ve fucked up with India but it isn’t surprising, political point scoring with our livelihoods and social lives. However, every variant gets whooped up hysterically and it turns out the vaccines work well against them in the end, Kent, South Africa, Brazilian, Indian etc.

I’m personally looking forward to the Texas variant coming here, this one seems mad as everything opens up, they ditch all the restrictions, your cases and hospitalisations then plummet to the lowest for a year and 70,000 watch the Boxing at an indoor venue. Get them flights from Texas landing!

Sorry, i’m being a conspiracy theorist again... 🙈
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Lost why do Bangladesh and Pakistan go on the red list with lower transmission rates and India doesn't between 9th and 23rd April?
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Concerns over South Africa and Brazil variants, which India didn't have.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ist-to-protect-uk-against-variants-of-concern


TwelveAngryMen said:
And why do we give 4 days notice on the imposition of the change allowing a dash back
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No idea, but Scotland and other countries did the same so there's presumably a good practical reason.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Lost why do Bangladesh and Pakistan go on the red list with lower transmission rates and India doesn't between 9th and 23rd April?

And why do we give 4 days notice on the imposition of the change allowing a dash back

20k people came into this country from India over that period
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That's puzzled me somewhat as well.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
India was up to 100,000 cases per day at that point with exponential growth
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Population of India is 1bn+, on a per capita basis that was lower than most of Europe.


TwelveAngryMen said:
Nice graph for you Los
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You know that India does something like 10 x the amount of testing per capita relative to the other 2 countries.

Also, I have mentioned this before, but it was the JBC that made the call, not the government.
 
Hancock said that the reason was based on the rates of Covid being picked up through U.K. border testing.

He said that this was needed to normalise significant differences in testing regimes in different t countries.. Using the India, Bangladesh, Pakistan example, he suggested that India’s higher rate was due to significantly more tests being carried out... However the U.K. was concerned with the ‘positivity rate’. Apparently the measured positivity rate for Pakistan & Bangladesh was higher than India.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Hancock said that the reason was based on the rates of Covid being picked up through U.K. border testing.

He said that this was needed to normalise significant differences in testing regimes in different t countries.. Using the India, Bangladesh, Pakistan example, he suggested that India’s higher rate was due to significantly more tests being carried out... However the U.K. was concerned with the ‘positivity rate’. Apparently the measured positivity rate for Pakistan & Bangladesh was higher than India.
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Nothing to do with trade deals at all then?

People could argue all day long about the timeframe anyway, the main problem was the four day window, even positive cases in this time were allowed to just wander off and 'self quarantine', why? It's the same mistakes made over and over and it's massively negligent while they were patting themselves on the back about the vaccine.
 
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Lytham_fy8 said:
Nothing to do with trade deals at all then?

People could argue all day long about the timeframe anyway, the main problem was the four day window, even positive cases in this time were allowed to just wander off and 'self quarantine', why? It's the same mistakes made over and over.
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That was the official explanation.👍

He did also respond to a similar accusation about people being allowed to simply ‘wander off and self-quarantine’. According to him checks are being undertaken to ensure people do self-quarantine.

In fairness, I thought he answered all questions put to him pretty well. Whether people believe him or not, is a matter for them I suppose.
 
You could describe people who do have the jab and didn’t isolate returning from India as selfish but I can think of stronger words that that. The vast majority of the public have been amazing but a small percentage just don’t care
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
That was the official explanation.👍

He did also respond to a similar accusation about people being allowed to simply ‘wander off and self-quarantine’. According to him checks are being undertaken to ensure people do self-quarantine.

In fairness, I thought he answered all questions put to him pretty well. Whether people believe him or not, is a matter for them I suppose.
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I know for a fact that the checks aren't worth the money we're paying to the private company to do, a company who have no enforcement powers at all and have struggled to get to half of those isolating.

Hey ho, here we go again...
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
I know for a fact that the checks aren't worth the money we're paying to the private company to do, a company who have no enforcement powers at all and have struggled to get to half of those isolating.

Hey ho, here we go again...
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50% is a lot lower the official contact rates, but then you’d expect anecdotal evidence to be exaggerated I suppose.

It’s not a perfect system obviously, but according to Hancock dramatic improvements have been made. I suppose the proof of that is when the system comes under any degree of pressure.

Of course if it’s anything like last time then we’re screwed, but I’d rather take an optimistic perspective....
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
50% is a lot lower the official contact rates, but then you’d expect anecdotal evidence to be exaggerated I suppose.

It’s not a perfect system obviously, but according to Hancock dramatic improvements have been made. I suppose the proof of that is when the system comes under any degree of pressure.

Of course if it’s anything like last time then we’re screwed, but I’d rather take an optimistic perspective....
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We should get away with it because of the vaccine, there's no way they can go in to another lockdown anyway so we'll have to take our chances.
 
How exactly do they check up if you are self-isolating ?

Call you and ask you to make a stat dec as to where you are 😂

What if you don't answer ?
 
I’m not sure Tim, but they seem to be picking up evidence of various types of non-compliance, including attempts to cheat the system with false declarations & document

Though of course, the system is always going to be heavily reliant on trusting people to do the right thing.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
How exactly do they check up if you are self-isolating ?

Call you and ask you to make a stat dec as to where you are 😂

What if you don't answer ?
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They turn up unannounced and ask if you're isolating, that's it, the only way they can tell you're not is if you don't answer the door or if you tell them you're not. If you're not in they refer to the police, who then turn up, you might be in then and just say you were asleep, they'll go ok then and that's it really.

You've basically got to admit to not self isolating to get found out.

It's usually one visit although you do get the texts and phone calls from the other service but that's more of an advice line, you could be half way up Ben Nevis and they have no way of knowing.

They should have a) not given people four days to leg it back and b) quarantined in a hotel. It's those three or four days that's fucked this up. Just stupid, utterly ridiculous and too reliant on people's moral behaviour and hoping the testing got all the positives, which it absolutely did not do.

Why was this outsourced again? It could have been run through local authorities instead of tendered by concerns with no real experience, have this government not realised that the only thing that has gone well in the past year is the vaccine program and that's because the NHS ran it, because it's what they do and the vaccine was developed by companies who, you know, make vaccines for a living? The obtuse doctrine of procurement, the ridiculous ethos of open market tenets during a national crisis has cost this country dearly.
 
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News all looking very positive regarding this indian variant, looks like vaccines should work just fine, should mean no issues with opening in June.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Vaccines prevent 97% of infections from Indian variant, scientists say

Studies by laboratories in the UK and India have recorded no deaths among the vaccinated population from the new strain - which has strengthened the case in favour of jabs.
www.dailymail.co.uk

Really hope this news allows us to re open fully in June if not to shut the plandemic and ridiculous great reset conspiracy nuts up on youtube I debated with, they were convinced the government won't let us out of lockdown... ever really, would be such a shock for them. Would love to see how they try and explain it and switch position to the next falsehood.
 
Its also kind of funny and ironic that hospitals are mostly full in these hotspot areas with non vaccinated people who were offered it. Probably these very type of people who always know best and don't believe in actual science and large bodies of it from multiple independent sources, but are swayed by 1 youtube video with a friendly sounding man.

Again, by all means be skeptical and take all info in, but you have to analyse it all.

You would think once these people filtered info back amongst their groups things might change..... "omg crazy Terry got hospitalised from covid, maybe we misjudged it" .......... is what you'll never hear from one of these people.

If one of them who caught it bad, who thought it was nothing, suddenly tried to explain to them they were wrong and maybe they should get the vaccine, the rest would probably just club together and call that one a shill and being bought out by the media or government.
 
BobHatton said:
The Indian varient MAY be more transmissible but is not any more lethal...

Or so I'm informed.
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Its not any more lethal to those who have had at least one jab. It’s a statistical numbers game. The more unvaxxed people who catch it the more will die. And I repeat, the point is that this India variant seems to hospitalise more under-40s - the age group that we are only just getting around to vaxxing for their first jab. So, if it really gets a hold in communities then expect the 4th wave.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
I know for a fact that the checks aren't worth the money we're paying to the private company to do, a company who have no enforcement powers at all and have struggled to get to half of those isolating.

Hey ho, here we go again...
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Arrived back from LA three weeks ago, got a call every day and and the Police came round to check I was home.
Checked twice at Amsterdam fir PCR results and checked again at Manchester.
Flew to Mexico City last week, filled a form in on the UK gov website, declaration to leave, PCR test 48 hours before flight. Airline checked when checking in all paperwork and ensured it was work not a jolly.
I’m not sure people are being left to wander into isolation, my experience tells me there checking.
The other European nations are travelling, KLM and Lufthansa flew in at the same time, pretty full flight.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Your article is from 21 April, here's what SAGE thinks 3 weeks later:

SAGE 13 May

There is not yet any clear evidence of any difference in disease severity following infection with this variant.
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SAGE opinion was based on hundreds or a couple of thousand cases in the UK then. The Senior Indian doctors are basing their opinion on hundreds of thousands if not millions, three weeks earlier. You ought to accept reality, it’s calming.
 
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Goose said:
Arrived back from LA three weeks ago, got a call every day and and the Police came round to check I was home.
Checked twice at Amsterdam fir PCR results and checked again at Manchester.
Flew to Mexico City last week, filled a form in on the UK gov website, declaration to leave, PCR test 48 hours before flight. Airline checked when checking in all paperwork and ensured it was work not a jolly.
I’m not sure people are being left to wander into isolation, my experience tells me there checking.
The other European nations are travelling, KLM and Lufthansa flew in at the same time, pretty full flight.
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The police haven't done it over the past few weeks, it's been outsourced and the rest is exactly as I said, one visit and phone calls.

As soon as this was identified as a problem in India we should have red listed, hotel quarantine or don't come in.
 
Archibald Knox said:
SAGE opinion was based on hundreds or a couple of thousand cases in the UK then. The Senior Indian doctors are basing their opinion on hundreds of thousands if not millions, three weeks earlier. You ought to accept reality, it’s calming.
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What you are saying is that, based on what you've read in the Guardian and seen on the BBC, you think you know more than the 39 top scientific experts who attended that meeting.
 
SAGE people do not have a God-given right to be always correct in their opinions. They have got plenty wrong over the past 17 months. Or have been unable to get the politicians to accept unpalatable truths so have watered down advice. “Herd immunity”, anyone? Care homes? Neil Ferguson modelling? In some circumstances Whitty and Co might have been labelled as “collaborators” by some. Let’s see how the Indian variant progresses. Personally, I hope we get lucky for once.
 
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Lost Seasider said:
Okay, thanks for bumping that thread https://avftt.co.uk/index.php?threads/indian-covid19-variant.17163/

First post was on 18/4 with the rest on 19/4 onwards, so literally the day India was being added to the red list, that's not doing any better.
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This is from 16/04;

Covid growing exponentially

Not good news Easy to be in the bubble of the current UK lull where we are at the bottom end of a wave but worldwide it's a very different story. Double mutation variants are now being found, where they can spread quicker and escape vaccines/antibodies and cases are now rising exponentially...
avftt.co.uk

Others on there thinking the same thing as well
 
More here;

Covid growing exponentially

Not good news Easy to be in the bubble of the current UK lull where we are at the bottom end of a wave but worldwide it's a very different story. Double mutation variants are now being found, where they can spread quicker and escape vaccines/antibodies and cases are now rising exponentially...
avftt.co.uk

I don't think that it could be any clearer than that.
 
No ones really discussed how deadly it is. I'm no scientist but even in O level biology we were taught that viruses that mutate to spread easier become less potent because they want to spread so damage the host less. I thought that might have been discussed at some point but haven't seen it anywhere. We seem to have fallen down a hole now where only discussion of its existence is important rather than the actual risks of harm it could cause
 
Ragnarok said:
No ones really discussed how deadly it is. I'm no scientist but even in O level biology we were taught that viruses that mutate to spread easier become less potent because they want to spread so damage the host less. I thought that might have been discussed at some point but haven't seen it anywhere. We seem to have fallen down a hole now where only discussion of its existence is important rather than the actual risks of harm it could cause
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True, but because it's not very deadly to start with the evolutionary pressure to become less deadly is weak so any change is likely to be slow, and the virus could afford to become more deadly if the mutation also added a transmission advantage.
 
Great innings this just needs a six and a few singles to get it over the line...
 
Plumbs said:
Great innings this just needs a six and a few singles to get it over the line...
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Well that would be nice, any help appreciated. I might have said earlier, tried to order a takeaway last night, Indian variant with pilau rice, unfortunately they don’t have it yet.
 
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