Keith should apologise

Perhaps people just aren’t getting tested as much given the so called “pingdemic” and worried they will have 10 days self-isolation to do whilst the weather is nice! Plenty deleting the app I believe so why not them dodging the testing.

However if its the case then I would be delighted that numbers are falling significantly.

Whilst you are demanding apologies from the Leader of the Opposition, perhaps you should also be asking one from the person who has been making all the decisions for the last 18 months or so!
 
Track and Trace has been binned now in pubs and most places so no ping and rushing to get a test when your perfectly well.
 
Cases clearly linked to the Euros gatherings. With schools now closed you'd expect a drop off but let's see how the summer goes.
 
coppiceman said:
We are at least a week away from knowing what the impact of the lifting of lockdown might be. This could go either way yet, so our anti-vax OP needs to rein himself in a bit for now.
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Quite a lot of testing not being done now all the kids are off school, but aren’t we still waiting on ONS findings to be released?
 
The true test is whether hospitalisations follow.

If they start reducing, well it means the decision was correct.

And Keir Starmer acting all Students' Union is pathetic. Johnson variant idiot.
 
Hopefully its the vaccine and antibodies in those recently infected meaning its hitting more and more dead ends.

But also could be a fact of less testing like no schools now. My work for eg stopped testing there and rely on individuals to do it but I admit I haven't done as many as I used to there.

Hopefully the slide continues though.
 
Hopefully this can usher in a sea change in attitude from politicians who blithely talk of restrictions with little consideration for the wider effects of their proposals. Especially off the back of expert advice that is far from it.
 
Upwards said:
Yes, they should take their advice from AVFTT where people have far more knowledge, or at least they seem to think they do.
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are you talking just about covid because there's quite a few other topics the know alls of AVFTT think they are the true experts with all the knowledge?
 
20togo said:
are you talking just about covid because there's quite a few other topics the know alls of AVFTT think they are the true experts with all the knowledge?
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And some of those know alls have a habit of getting most things wrong. One know all in particular 😆 No names mentioned
 
You lot are getting far too hung up on facts and figures, no one is completely sure how these are arrived at, even the people who collect the data, there's literally only one factor to look at, are admissions WITH Covid going up or not, everything else is just static.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
You lot are getting far too hung up on facts and figures, no one is completely sure how these are arrived at, even the people who collect the data, there's literally only one factor to look at, are admissions WITH Covid going up or not, everything else is just static.
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Agree. Many, many unknowns. That's why I get annoyed when the Profs come on breakfast telly spouting their own brand of religiosity. eg:

So sure of themselves but so often wrong. In the meantime, your Cats and Keiths of this world have ammunition to 'spread the word' with extra zeal. It needs to stop.
 
Apparently if the case figures falling was being caused by reaching herd immunity you would expect a protracted and slow tailing off and a more rounded peak rather than the sudden dip we have seen. So most likely to be down to something else, maybe the schools closing and a dip in testing?
Soon find out I suppose.
 
Personally I think it's too early to call the impact of the relaxation as there is always a delay

The closure of schools ( the undoubted super spreader ) will help

Let's hope the rates keep dropping
 
The incubation period can be a couple of days, so taking testing time into consideration you would expect the July 19th opening to have already started to have some impact on case numbers.

Is also all well and good people talking about this supposedly having impacted from the Euros, but the R number is either positive or negative … So it shouldn’t make any difference…

If the R number was positive, then the number would have continued to go up regardless of the Euros stopping… It just would have gone up less quickly.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Personally I think it's too early to call the impact of the relaxation as there is always a delay

The closure of schools ( the undoubted super spreader ) will help

Let's hope the rates keep dropping
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School closures were known so should've been baked into any prediction surely? It just bugs me that so much weight is put on the views of these people and they are almost always out by various orders of magnitude. On this occasion the advice has been not just out but plain wrong.
 
Mexboroseasider said:
Occupancy of mechanical ventilation beds has risen by 31% and other bed occupancy by 33% over the last week.
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Covid zero doesn't exist; it never will.

So we are the position of what is acceptable.

So, an increase which goes from 100 to 130 for 1000 to 1300, or 10000 to 13000 is completely different.

I accept that for those individuals who are involved it's horrific, but at population scale, there has to be an acceptability that some will be unlucky.

I think we are on the side of acceptability.

Whether we remain there, is the billion pound question.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
there's literally only one factor to look at, are admissions WITH Covid going up or not, everything else is just static.
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You know as well as anyone that hospitalisation lags cases by a week to 10 days, so with the peak around 19 July we're at or about the peak now and won't see a decline until next week earliest.
 
Lala said:
www.google.com

More than half of Covid patients in hospital 'tested positive after admission'

The data reportedly show that, as of last Thursday, 44 per cent of patients who were classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted
www.google.com www.google.com
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The Telegraph ran a similar story: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...d-hospitalisations-tested-positive-admission/

There's a couple of important points:

Firstly, a lot of those admitted without a test are being admitted for Covid like symptoms, so it's people not getting tested rather than people not having Covid. This is plausible because 60% of people admitted haven't been vaccinated, so it seems likely that this group of people would be much less likely to take a test as well.

Secondly, the number of patients in mechanical ventilator beds is tracking the number of admissions very closely, with a lag of about 5 days, so these patients clearly have respiritory problems and Covid is the only likely candidate, or at least the ratio of with/because of Covid hasn't changed over the last few weeks.

So as a rough guess, I'd say 90% of these patients are Covid patients regardless of test status when the enter hospital.
 
Further drop today. Should Keith apologise for his fear-mongering? It's not really on at a time where some resolve was needed, was it?
 
rockontommy said:
School closures were known so should've been baked into any prediction surely? It just bugs me that so much weight is put on the views of these people and they are almost always out by various orders of magnitude. On this occasion the advice has been not just out but plain wrong.
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How are these clowns still getting airtime?

It’s like the guy in the pub who’s got a red hot tip having a slot on ITV Racing.
 
TSSeasider said:
Covid zero doesn't exist; it never will.

So we are the position of what is acceptable.

So, an increase which goes from 100 to 130 for 1000 to 1300, or 10000 to 13000 is completely different.

I accept that for those individuals who are involved it's horrific, but at population scale, there has to be an acceptability that some will be unlucky.

I think we are on the side of acceptability.

Whether we remain there, is the billion pound question.
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I don’t disagree. But I was responding to a post that said “the true test is whether hospitalisations increase”. I was just pointing out that they seem to be.

Hopefully we’re on the right course but given the uncertainty about what’s behind the fall, my feeling is that it’s a bit early to be getting out the bunting and celebrating. The government, with its ultra cautious response to the falling numbers, seems to think the same.

And given the number of dead I don’t think the “yah boo - we were right all along” triumphalism that we’re getting from the anti vaxxers will ever be the right response.
 
Mexboroseasider said:
I don’t disagree. But I was responding to a post that said “the true test is whether hospitalisations increase”. I was just pointing out that they seem to be.

Hopefully we’re on the right course but given the uncertainty about what’s behind the fall, my feeling is that it’s a bit early to be getting out the bunting and celebrating. The government, with its ultra cautious response to the falling numbers, seems to think the same.

And given the number of dead I don’t think the “yah boo - we were right all along” triumphalism that we’re getting from the anti vaxxers will ever be the right response.
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I find your attempt to introduce a note of solemnity insincere.
 
Mexboroseasider said:
I don’t disagree. But I was responding to a post that said “the true test is whether hospitalisations increase”. I was just pointing out that they seem to be.

Hopefully we’re on the right course but given the uncertainty about what’s behind the fall, my feeling is that it’s a bit early to be getting out the bunting and celebrating. The government, with its ultra cautious response to the falling numbers, seems to think the same.

And given the number of dead I don’t think the “yah boo - we were right all along” triumphalism that we’re getting from the anti vaxxers will ever be the right response.
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I'm double vaccinated and grateful, and I hope what we are seeing is the equivalent of the VE day celebrations.

When the war was won, the people had a party; I feel it's just an overwhelming sense of relief; I don't think they forgot about the millions who had died.

I think what we see seeing is the equivalent of that.

Life is getting back to normal, fewer people are dying - it's worth celebrating.
 
TSSeasider said:
I'm double vaccinated and grateful, and I hope what we are seeing is the equivalent of the VE day celebrations.

When the war was won, the people had a party; I feel it's just an overwhelming sense of relief; I don't think they forgot about the millions who had died.

I think what we see seeing is the equivalent of that.

Life is getting back to normal, fewer people are dying - it's worth celebrating.
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And I’m just saying celebrations are a bit premature, a view shared by the government it seems.

I also don’t think the analogy with VE Day works very well. I wasn’t around at the time but don’t recall stories of people jeering at other citizens who’d also been through the war or calling people who’d fought on the front line war criminals like the anti vaxxing loon in this article.

www.google.co.uk

Met police investigate anti-vaxxer’s speech amid fears for safety of medics

Police investigate comments by Kate Shemirani, who compared medical staff to Nazi war criminals
www.google.co.uk www.google.co.uk
 
Even the deniers know isn’t isn’t over and will be with us for many years, it’s all about how we can live with it without wearing masks and keeping our distance, although I’m in favour of the latter sometimes.

Imo, cases are falling due to schools closing, therefore less testing, people deleting the app because they don’t want to get pinged, and people on holiday, whether here or abroad who are probably not going to get tested while they’re away.

Due to the lag, hospitalisations will increase as will sadly deaths in the next couple of weeks, and I expect cases will start to rise again next week, if not later this week because the effect of July 19th has not come through yet.

I was off work yesterday and everywhere I went there were more people without masks then I saw in the early part of last week.

They think it’s all over, I hope they’re right.
 
Matesrates said:
Even the deniers know isn’t isn’t over and will be with us for many years, it’s all about how we can live with it without wearing masks and keeping our distance, although I’m in favour of the latter sometimes.

Imo, cases are falling due to schools closing, therefore less testing, people deleting the app because they don’t want to get pinged, and people on holiday, whether here or abroad who are probably not going to get tested while they’re away.

Due to the lag, hospitalisations will increase as will sadly deaths in the next couple of weeks, and I expect cases will start to rise again next week, if not later this week because the effect of July 19th has not come through yet.

I was off work yesterday and everywhere I went there were more people without masks then I saw in the early part of last week.

They think it’s all over, I hope they’re right.
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Seems a fair summary to me and much more sensible than the op’s ramblings.
 
Mexboroseasider said:
Seems a fair summary to me and much more sensible than the op’s ramblings.
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It's a shame that you feel the need to put your party allegiance and ego front and centre on this one. Any comment on the scientific advice or politicians calling for unnecessary damaging restrictions or do you think by having a pop at me, you can keep your core beliefs in tact? Others have alluded to Euro 2020/schools closing so at least make some sort of effort to tackle the issue. Though I'd say Scottish schools closed last month and if the experts hadn't considered these things in their calculations, they aren't worth listening to. Not that I listen to them anyway.

Are people too invested in government scientific advice? Plenty of stuff for you to go at rather than try and smear me, Mex.
 
rockontommy said:
It's a shame that you feel the need to put your party allegiance and ego front and centre on this one. Any comment on the scientific advice or politicians calling for unnecessary damaging restrictions or do you think by having a pop at me, you can keep your core beliefs in tact? Others have alluded to Euro 2020/schools closing so at least make some sort of effort to tackle the issue. Though I'd say Scottish schools closed last month and if the experts hadn't considered these things in their calculations, they aren't worth listening to. Not that I listen to them anyway.

Are people too invested in government scientific advice? Plenty of stuff for you to go at rather than try and smear me, Mex.
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I’ve voted Labour but I’ve also voted Lib Dem and Green so I don’t have any particular allegiance to the Labour Party. If anyone is trying to make this a party political issue it’s you in the op.

I’m also not especially invested in the government scientific advice, and I expect they’ve made mistakes. But I tend to think they probably have a better handle on the pandemic than the Covid sceptics, deniers, anti vaxxers and idiots calling for medical staff to be put on death lists. I also had a former workmate die of Covid just before Xmas. 63 and a heavy smoker admittedly but no underlying health issues. So I know Covid is real and not some weird made up conspiracy.
 
rockontommy said:
"Looks like it might rain later"

AVFTT: "Are you a meteorologist or something?"
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The difference between rain and covid, is you can stick your head out of the window and see the clouds gathering, I'm not sure you can stick your head out of the window and then start pontificating on your observations of covid but it doesn't stop some people. For some people their opinion is a fact.
 
Mexboroseasider said:
I’ve voted Labour but I’ve also voted Lib Dem and Green so I don’t have any particular allegiance to the Labour Party. If anyone is trying to make this a party political issue it’s you in the op.

I’m also not especially invested in the government scientific advice, and I expect they’ve made mistakes. But I tend to think they probably have a better handle on the pandemic than the Covid sceptics, deniers, anti vaxxers and idiots calling for medical staff to be put on death lists. I also had a former workmate die of Covid just before Xmas. 63 and a heavy smoker admittedly but no underlying health issues. So I know Covid is real and not some weird made up conspiracy.
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This isn't a thread about whether Covid is real, anti-vaxxers and idiots calling for medical staff to be put on death lists though....

Okay, how about these ones:
- How wrong does the advice have to be before it is classed as worthless?
- Is there an acceptable amount of error and if so how much?
- Should the advice come with a disclaimer like the weather ie. Predicted with a Low/Medium/High degree of certainty?

As you rightly point out, people's lives and livelihoods are on the line here so it is important, would you not agree?
 
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