Lockdown Restrictions Forecast

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
Long term strategy, that's what we need, not flip flop policies

The problem is that would mean fundamental reform of the NHS into something more like the European systems, but politically Labour could never support that and the Conservatives don't have the political capital to pull it off on their own.
 

Ormergod

Well-known member
March 8th is 3 weeks after Feb 15th, which was the target for the over 70's (and other priorities), they account for 80% of deaths, the 99% figure won't be reached until after the over 50's have been vaccinated, likely towards the end of May.

Even then we don't yet know exactly how effective the vaccines are in the real world, and there's a risk of new variants evolving that is obviously higher if the virus is allowed to spread uncontrolled in the unprotected population.




And others are complaining that too much consideration is being given to other areas, that we locked down too late, came out of lockdown too early etc.




There's plenty of evidence if you bother too look.




Case numbers started to fall long before the vaccine was being administered in anything likely to have a material effect, and the falls can be seen in groups outside that haven't been vaccinated.




Do you think there's a material difference between December and January?




Testing does not affect hospitalisation and deaths, both of which are closely tracking the case numbers.

In any event I see no evidence for this claimed switch in testing and no change in daily PCR tests performed that would indicate such a change.




Correlation does not equal causality, and in this case we don't even appear to have correlation.
EuiRIO2XMAISpc1
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member

I don't think that chart shows what you think it shows but a link to the source would be nice, and can you spot the trick(s) being pulled in the chart?

Also could you explain how the use of PCR testing is resulting in hospitalisations and deaths please.
 

Wizaard

Well-known member
I actually don't know if we have underfunded the NHS. And neither do you. It depends who you listen to and who you believe. I've worked in public service and they were always moaning about being underfunded. But at the same time wasting hundreds of thousands of tax payers money. The amounts of money wasted was eye watering.
No doubt the NHS underfunded to cope with this pandemic, but who foresaw that? And do you fund the NHS to cope with a situation like this that may only happen once every 100 years? Or may never happen.
You staff it so there is some resilience built into the service. Successive cuts to meet arbitrary targets have meant there is simply no additional capacity because an accountant has determined that extra bed is surplus, or that box of gowns isn't needed right now.

Any surge in need sees the NHS struggling as reported every winter. A pandemic causing tens of thousands to seek hospitalization daily just blew the system, and the only way it's been managed is to stop everything else, hence the waiting list over 6 weeks going from 1500 to 250,000 in a year.

The decision to cut was made on ideological grounds to set the scene for privatisation, which has partially happened anyway as people get fed up of waiting to be seen about minor procedures to and go private.

The pandemic in a perverse way, has been good for the NHS because future plans will have to be carefully presented so as not to be seen to be harming the NHS. The way they've risen to the challenge of the disease and also the vaccination won't be forgotten.

This Government were literally cheering two years ago as they blocked nurses' pay rises. Boris's mate Nigel has made no secret of his wish to do away with free healthcare. Hopefully all that will be remembered by the electorate.
 

RUSTY_2_STANDS

Well-known member
You staff it so there is some resilience built into the service. Successive cuts to meet arbitrary targets have meant there is simply no additional capacity because an accountant has determined that extra bed is surplus, or that box of gowns isn't needed right now.

Any surge in need sees the NHS struggling as reported every winter. A pandemic causing tens of thousands to seek hospitalization daily just blew the system, and the only way it's been managed is to stop everything else, hence the waiting list over 6 weeks going from 1500 to 250,000 in a year.

The decision to cut was made on ideological grounds to set the scene for privatisation, which has partially happened anyway as people get fed up of waiting to be seen about minor procedures to and go private.

The pandemic in a perverse way, has been good for the NHS because future plans will have to be carefully presented so as not to be seen to be harming the NHS. The way they've risen to the challenge of the disease and also the vaccination won't be forgotten.

This Government were literally cheering two years ago as they blocked nurses' pay rises. Boris's mate Nigel has made no secret of his wish to do away with free healthcare. Hopefully all that will be remembered by the electorate.
Like I've said, I don't have enough knowledge of NHS funding to offer an answer. Luckily there's enough experts on here who do have that knowledge
 

rockontommy

Well-known member
so now we are getting the "cases" down lower? I thought this was about protecting the NHS? If 99% of the deaths are in the group that will be fully "vaccinated" by March 8th then any "cases" in the rest of the population will not lead to increased hospital admissions.

Get everything opened up.No consideration being given to the damage these lockdowns are causing in all areas outside SarsCov2.The longer the restrictions carry on then the overwhelming damage that will be happening will be non-covidn related.

We still dont have any evidence that these lockdowns or restrictions have made any impact whatsoever.Is it the lockdown?Is it the "vaccine"? Is it the climate?Is it the the switch to lateral flow testing a few weeks ago for all pillar 2 (tests undertaken outside hospital) that isnt picking up the same level of false positive "cases" that the PCR was doing and that is showing in the "case" numbers.The timing certainly seems to point towards it.
The vaccine is working so well, it is reducing the number of deaths in the under-60s unvaccinated group by the exact same percentage 😉
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
Amazing there is always these leaks before a Boris announcement 🤦🏻‍♂️

Leaks, or speculation?

Foreign holidays doesn't look like something the Government can allow or ban anyway, it's going to depend on the other countries and the situation there.

April looks a bit early for gyms, but if they are going to do that I'd suspect from the 5th rather than "mid April"

Cinemas/indoor pubs, maybe right at the end of May (but for the latter why bother).

Outdoor pubs, end of March, quite probably.

What's really missing is details of households mixing both indoors and outdoors, I'd suggest that's what people really want.

In any event we'll know for sure tomorrow.
 

Adams Kebab

Well-known member
Leaks, or speculation?

Foreign holidays doesn't look like something the Government can allow or ban anyway, it's going to depend on the other countries and the situation there.

April looks a bit early for gyms, but if they are going to do that I'd suspect from the 5th rather than "mid April"

Cinemas/indoor pubs, maybe right at the end of May (but for the latter why bother).

Outdoor pubs, end of March, quite probably.

What's really missing is details of households mixing both indoors and outdoors, I'd suggest that's what people really want.

In any event we'll know for sure tomorrow.
April looks early for gyms?! Why?

The restrictions being lifted are what I would expect without a vaccine. Horrendous.
 

Bottle

Well-known member
I’d suggest that there will be an about face by the Government who will stop trying to control the virus and will instead shift responsibility onto the individuals of society.

Pubs/Restaurants can open, but if you want to go then that’s up to you and at your own risk. These establishments can offer COVID secure wining and dining, but on your head be it if you wish to partake.

There will be some serious hand washing by the Tories BUT they will continue to offer vaccinations and advice and support the NHS and make the BIG decisions (school and sport attendance etc) but the onus is going to shift to us to take care of ourselves and ours.
 

SEASIDE2020

Well-known member
I tend to believe the people who work within the health service who say it's underfunded. Same as I trust that those in education can spot lack of investment too.
Why do i trust them? Because 99.9% of them aren't in it to get rich. They have no vested interest in getting more other than for understanding what could be done with more if it was provided.

And the argument that this is about a pandemic rather than structural underfunding is spurious in the extreme. The country hasn't had a real war for 75 years. So i presume it's fine and dandy to strip back defence budgets rather than keep investing in personnel and hardware 'just in case'?

Come on Straighters, I'm sure you make some good points but do you know of many public sector workers that tell you they receive too much funding ?
 

SEASIDE2020

Well-known member
I'm not so one-eyed as to think that there's no wasteful practices in the public sector and I would say that part of improved investment should also be aligned with better use of the money (something that seems to have been said for as long as I can remember). Part of that comes with paying staff in a way that attracts talent rather than forces it to leave for or stay in the private sector. Staff in the NHS or other public sector jobs are no different to anyone else. Treat them like you don't care and they'll work like they don't care.

Anyway, moving off topic from the original OP so I'll park my bus there.

Fair enough Straighters.

Please ignore my last post.

I hope you manage to park your bus nice and safely and have a good night.
 

Adams Kebab

Well-known member
Gyms opened after pubs in July, then closed the same time as non-essential retail in December which was 4 weeks after pubs didn’t reopen after the November lockdown.

Following the Science or the back of a fag packet, but never forget it’s all about our health.

Honest, it is.
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
8 March

schools open confirmed, 2x weekly testing of secondary school pupils.

1 person outdoor from another household, care homes can nominate 1 person to visit.


29 March

Rule of 6 or 2 households outdoors.
End of legal requirement to stay at home.
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
5/12 April
1 week notice
Non-essential shops
Gyms
Barbers
Pubs etc outdoors
libraries

17 May
Restrictions outdoors lifted (max 30)
Meeting indoors (rule of 6 or 2 x households).
Sports grounds open (capacity limits).
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
21 June
All limits removed.

Various dates, I think April
Reviews scheduled for overseas travel, major events.
Social distancing, masks etc
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
The return of schools should have been delayed until after Easter - as I have said previously if it's not safe to meet up outside how can it be safe to fill the classrooms with pupils who will then take the virus home with them

My specific concern that their full scale return will push the R rate over 1 again and that then leads the Gov't to delay everything else
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
The return of schools should have been delayed until after Easter - as I have said previously if it's not safe to meet up outside how can it be safe to fill the classrooms with pupils who will then take the virus home with them

Criticising for the sake of it again.

Easter is 2 - 5 April this year so that would mean another month with the kids off school.

As to the rest it's a cost/benefit analysis.
 

poolseasider

Well-known member
The return of schools should have been delayed until after Easter - as I have said previously if it's not safe to meet up outside how can it be safe to fill the classrooms with pupils who will then take the virus home with them

My specific concern that their full scale return will push the R rate over 1 again and that then leads the Gov't to delay everything else
Then they should be lucking at the death rate and hospital admissions and stuff the r-rate.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Criticising for the sake of it again.

Easter is 2 - 5 April this year so that would mean another month with the kids off school.

As to the rest it's a cost/benefit analysis.
No I'm not and no it doesn't

The schools break up 26th March so its three weeks and I say again if we can't meet up outside how can it be safe to fill classrooms

They aren't closed anyway as children of key workers are in and the rest working remotely
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
The schools break up 26th March so its three weeks and I say again if we can't meet up outside how can it be safe to fill classrooms

Nobody has said it's "safe", the PM himself said it will bring about an increase in cases, what they are saying is that the cost in terms of extra cases is worth the benefit of the children being back in school.

In fact it's because it's not "safe" that they are keeping other restrictions in place for now, they want to monitor the impact of this change before moving on to other relaxations, if they open up outdoor meetings and schools at the same time then they can't reliably measure the impact of either.


They aren't closed anyway as children of key workers are in and the rest working remotely

You know that the remote working provision is patchy at best, and how on earth do you get a 5 year old to work remotely.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Nobody has said it's "safe", the PM himself said it will bring about an increase in cases, what they are saying is that the cost in terms of extra cases is worth the benefit of the children being back in school.

In fact it's because it's not "safe" that they are keeping other restrictions in place for now, they want to monitor the impact of this change before moving on to other relaxations, if they open up outdoor meetings and schools at the same time then they can't reliably measure the impact of either.




You know that the remote working provision is patchy at best, and how on earth do you get a 5 year old to work remotely.
You can - my missus does it every day

It's not ideal but it's happening

I could sort of understand ' infants returning on 8/3 and those in the final year ( though most of the curriculum will have been taught by now ) with the rest to follow - but all at once ahead of literally everything 🤨
 

Wizaard

Well-known member
Nobody has said it's "safe", the PM himself said it will bring about an increase in cases, what they are saying is that the cost in terms of extra cases is worth the benefit of the children being back in school.

In fact it's because it's not "safe" that they are keeping other restrictions in place for now, they want to monitor the impact of this change before moving on to other relaxations, if they open up outdoor meetings and schools at the same time then they can't reliably measure the impact of either.




You know that the remote working provision is patchy at best, and how on earth do you get a 5 year old to work remotely.
It's happening and has been since Christmas.
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
I could sort of understand ' infants returning on 8/3 and those in the final year ( though most of the curriculum will have been taught by now ) with the rest to follow - but all at once ahead of literally everything 🤨

I suspect that'll be one of the questions this evening.

My guess is it's to do with monitoring and time lag, if you send only one group back then it's likely 5 - 6 weeks before you can send the next group back, i.e the end of April, and any other groups wouldn't be able to return at all.

Also, possibly, wider effects on the economy.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
I'd hazard a guess that there is more damage been done to the economy by prioritising the return of schools above anything else
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
I could sort of understand ' infants returning on 8/3 and those in the final year ( though most of the curriculum will have been taught by now ) with the rest to follow - but all at once ahead of literally everything 🤨

The answer is here:

AFAICS the reason to send everyone back at once is we have a natural 2 week circuit breaker after 3 weeks over Easter, so they can monitor the effects of the return over the break and if the effect is greater than anticipated further steps can be taken (P Vallance, about 37:30
 
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