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basilrobbie

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Less than three weeks to go until polling day. So probably about four and half until we know who won. 😎

Five hundred and thirty eight college votes are up for grabs, with two hundred and seventy needed to win. What are your forecasts for :

  • How the electoral college vote splits?
  • How the percentage of the popular vote splits?
  • How the Senate ends up being distributed ? (Currently 53 Republican, 45 Democrat, 2 Independent)
  • When we will know the result (date)?

And in no more than 200 words, what are the likely outcomes in terms of public order?

Over to you.
 
basilrobbie said:
Less than three weeks to go until polling day. So probably about four and half until we know who won. 😎

Five hundred and thirty eight college votes are up for grabs, with two hundred and seventy needed to win. What are your forecasts for :

  • How the electoral college vote splits?
  • How the percentage of the popular vote splits?
  • How the Senate ends up being distributed ? (Currently 53 Republican, 45 Democrat, 2 Independent)
  • When we will know the result (date)?

And in no more than 200 words, what are the likely outcomes in terms of public order?

Over to you.
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If Biden wins then Civil unrest across the country which could lead to even worse events. I can't answer the first 2 as I don't know enough about how it works but I think Biden will win with a reasonable majority and we will know on the day.
 
Rushing a bit today so can't fully answer but a Dem win in all, Biden wins by a smallish amount, Trump challenges, we still won't know by January.
 
The saddest aspect of this election is that Trump's love of all things UK and being of Scottish descent means that from political and economical viewpoints it benefits the UK to have the Don in charge. In contrast, Biden has an inherent dislike of Boris Johnson and of all things British and would go out of his way to make things difficult for us. Hobson's choice.
 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden about 87% chance of winning v 13% for trump.

It looks to me something like a 50% - 60% chance of Biden winning enough of the electoral college say 300 - 350 plus to head off any significant unrest.

Any kind of Trump victory or a small Biden victory then god knows what happens next.

Democrats are strong favourites to win the House and favourites to win the senate.

We don't know what kind of dark and underhand tricks Trump may try to pull off so everything remains up in the air.
 
Biden 330 Trump 208
Biden 16 million popular vote
Dems 58 Repos 40 ind 2

4th November but Trump disputes this and claims rather like the dear chap in Belerus that he really won and will not leave office until the Supreme court has ruled.
 
Whitstabletangerine said:
4th November but Trump disputes this and claims rather like the dear chap in Belerus that he really won and will not leave office until the Supreme court has ruled.
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I don't think the SC has a say in this case.

The constitution says Trump leaves office on 20 January, unless the HoR declares him the winner somebody replaces him, normally Biden, but possibly somebody else in the chain of succession in extraordinary circumstances.
 
Lost Seasider said:
I don't think the SC has a say in this case.

The constitution says Trump leaves office on 20 January, unless the HoR declares him the winner somebody replaces him, normally Biden, but possibly somebody else in the chain of succession in extraordinary circumstances.
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You and I read the same website.

As things stand I'm going for :

Electoral College : Biden 344, Trump 194

Popular Vote : Biden 54%, Trump 46%

Senate : Democrats 51, Republicans 49

Date result known : Friday 6 November

Impact : moderate disorder on the Tuesday evening and Wednesday until the size of victory is known. GOP fails to enthusiastically back Trump's attempts to cling on to power. Less delay and uncertainty around postal votes than some are predicting, Democrats position also looks marginally better on election night itself than predicted.

I do hope I'm broadly right about that, some of the alternative scenarios are dreadful.

LS, I see that overnights 538 have Georgia (just) turning blue.
 
tangerinenotorange said:
The saddest aspect of this election is that Trump's love of all things UK and being of Scottish descent means that from political and economical viewpoints it benefits the UK to have the Don in charge. In contrast, Biden has an inherent dislike of Boris Johnson and of all things British and would go out of his way to make things difficult for us. Hobson's choice.
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He doesn't love anything but himself.
 
A few thoughts.

First I think we don’t appreciate (or have forgotten) just how much Hillary Clinton was despised by the US electorate (not just Republicans but also many Democrats) in 2016. And yet she still won the popular vote by c3m. By contrast Biden is quite liked (even if he’s not the most inspiring of politicians). So I think he’ll win the popular vote by some margin.

So far as the electoral college is concerned a lot of states that flipped to Trump in 2016 did so by quite narrow margins (Michigan - 16 votes in the electoral college - and Pennsylvania - 20 votes in the electoral college being razor thin). According to polls, most of the swing states now show a respectable lead for Biden, and even states that are historically Republican strongholds (Georgia for instance with 16 electoral votes) are now neck and neck.

Polls also suggest that a lot of seniors, particularly in the key state of Florida, have been put off by Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

There’s also an unprecedented amount of voting underway already (by mail and in person), which according to the registers of voters seem to favour the Democrats. That said Republicans tend to prefer to vote in person on the day and obviously Trump has been making noises about the validity of postal ballots.

So while Trump clearly has an uphill task, there’s a long way to go yet, and I expect we’ll be in for a few more twists and turns between now and January 21 2021. So a tad early for predictions I think.
 
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