Ukraine - is it over?

M

Matesrates

Well-known member
The worlds attention is almost completely focused on Israel; not even Hamas now, they’re wetting themselves over Iran and the consequences of its attack, principally probably the impact on the world economy.

Meanwhile, American funding for Ukraine is still in a road block and Putin, who was already emboldened by this, will be even more emboldened by the attention on Israel.

The view in some quarters is that he could take Ukraine in its entirety before the end of this year. The consequences could be devastating for Europe and the world.
 
Putin knows he will win in Ukraine. It's just a matter of how long it will take. He will keep grinding away until the time is ripe to move in.
 
Yep too slow getting weaponry by some countries and Republicans putting up a roadblock, and sending a green light to Russia.
Needed to at the very least keep Putin busy and bogged down for as long as possible, and preferably send him out of Ukraine.
 
Read on the BBC that Russia have lost 50,000 men at least and Ukraine over 30,000 men.

Suggested that it was probably more.
 
I do believe that the UK and USA have taken their eyes off the ball. Bad move. Whilst the Middle East might result in a wider war - very bad idea - I do think we still need to focus on Ukraine. I don't know but I believe that Russia is running our of soldiers and is relying on weaponry from Iran, China and others. Our Defence Committee should be saying this to Cameron. Unfortunately, I think he's got a free hand abroad. Sunak needs to retake control.
 
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Russia has been making territory gains for a couple of months now and it seems to be moving at pace. Plus the glider bombs are almost unstoppable and demoralising.


The main positive for Ukraine is their new production capability of killer drones. They’re really ramping production up and causing real damage to Russian hardware. The costs are mounting for Putin
 
Chunkylad said:
Russia has been making territory gains for a couple of months now and it seems to be moving at pace. Plus the glider bombs are almost unstoppable and demoralising.


The main positive for Ukraine is their new production capability of killer drones. They’re really ramping production up and causing real damage to Russian hardware. The costs are mounting for Putin
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Yes. But as you say I wouldn’t write Ukraine off just yet.

As much as our lickspittle Trump and Farage supporting apologists would like that to be true.
 
I went to Kyiv and Dnipro last week for work.

The Ukranians are definitely not giving up, there's a frustration that NATO aren't supplying enough military support though.
I think both sides have an eye on the upcoming election in the US, with Russia hoping for a Trump win and Ukraine hoping for a Biden win + Democrat controlled House(s).

Aside from foreign support, Ukraine still have a few more levers to pull in terms of conscription and shifting the entire economy to a war footing.

Curfew and missile alerts aside, Kyiv remains a lively capital city and I can't see a total invasion by Russia as a likely scenario.

On the train from Poland I sat opposite an analyst who reports to the Foreign office. He'd been visiting regularly since the start of the conflict.
His view was that it would probably end up with Ukraine ceding some territory in the South but joining NATO as a full member, and a tense stalemate that Putin will claim as a victory.

Putin's health and US policy after the election are the two major variables.
 
basilrobbie3 said:
The US House of Representatives have passed a $61 billion aid package. That should help equalise things a bit.
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Hopefully! It's after 6 months of stalling by the Republicans, and a lot depends on when it actually arrives...but a positive sign.

The bill passing with bipartisan support and Mike Johnson's support is a pleasant surprise.
 
Junior_BentsPlatformShoes said:
They didn’t really have a choice but to pass it - it’s not an option to let a half-backed Ukraine get overrun by an outdated and poorly equipped convict meat grinder.
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The only valid concern in the US is that for the first time China is arguably surpassing them in terms of military capacity, and therefore every dollar to bolster a distant conflict is money that could be better used to catch up to China to discourage them from invading Taiwan.

The MAGA wing of the Republican party...are objecting from a 'murica first, culture war perspective that is so deeply stupid it's too depressing to summarise.
 
look.its.luke said:
The only valid concern in the US is that for the first time China is arguably surpassing them in terms of military capacity, and therefore every dollar to bolster a distant conflict is money that could be better used to catch up to China to discourage them from invading Taiwan.

The MAGA wing of the Republican party...are objecting from a 'murica first, culture war perspective that is so deeply stupid it's too depressing to summarise.
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The problem with that is Russia and China are well linked and if Russia were to win in Ukraine, it would bolster them both and show the US to be weak. This is a war by proxy with more riding on it than just Russia annexing Ukraine
 
Junior_BentsPlatformShoes said:
The problem with that is Russia and China are well linked and if Russia were to win in Ukraine, it would bolster them both and show the US to be weak. This is a war by proxy with more riding on it than just Russia annexing Ukraine
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Not so sure, I think China are probably having second thoughts about Taiwan now and that's the potential conflict that could tip the world over the brink.
 
Poss
Lytham_fy8 said:
Not so sure, I think China are probably having second thoughts about Taiwan now and that's the potential conflict that could tip the world over the brink.
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Possibly - but if not Taiwan, the rate they’ve built new footholds and bases on claimed islands along with building facilities for third world countries and then taking them back when they default on repayments, China are set to be ready to cause big problems in the next decade or so.
 
In my opinion Putin will never back down, he will go on killing people, even his own.
He wants his place in History.
Unfortunately it appears that no one in Russia is strong enough to oppose him.
 
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