YouGov

[SEASIDE2020]

To be fair it was the media and the bookies who were predicting a defeat for Trump and Brexit. People were just repeating the perceived wisdom. The bookies gave Trump a 15% chance of winning and Brexit a 25% chance. They were both big underdogs, Brexit unjustifiably so.

53

Forgot to say, Brexit was second favourite, obviously the odds varied all the time and you quote 25% (3/1) which it will have been at some point in time.

You say it was unjustifiably 3/1 and I assume you mean that you believe it should have been shorter - apologies if I have misunderstood.

If that was the case then you should have filled your boots because - as you advise above - it is not about trying to back winners.

It is about obtaining bigger odds about an occurrence than the true odds of that occurrence.

I am not sure that obtaining better than the true odds of an occurrence is that easy to be honest, I wouldn't be sure that your opinion on politics would be more informed than that of the bookmakers.

Please don't take that the wrong way 53 and apologies for changing the subject from politics to punting but you encouraged me.

 

[Ragnarok]

I dont think the "cancel" culture that seems to be eminating from the far left will do Labour any favours come a GE. We need to distance ourselves from this if we have any aspirations of forming a government

This is probably more important than covid and brexit combined. Labour is in a pickle as the woke left continues to wrap itself in ever decreasing circles of contradictions. The silent majority will be watching and judging...

 

[TheSpiritOf53]

53

Again, not a big problem but it is you who has introduced the bookmakers and their odds - something I do find very interesting and could discuss forever and a day - I merely stated that the majority on here have a very poor record when it comes to predicting the outcome of political events. You are right when you suggest that Trump and Brexit were second favourites but surely that makes the majority on here even worse, they even manage to get massive short ones turned over

Lol. The point is the whole media narrative said Brexit can't win and Trump can't win. To stand up against that is very difficult even when in Brexit's case the narrative was in opposition to what the polls were saying. In other words, it was the media, commentators and politicians that got it so wrong rather than those on here who just followed the crowd.

It does expose a certain lack of critical thinking that I think everybody is guilty of to some extent. If the people who have a career analysing politics can have their judgement affected by their biases and get it so wrong then what hope is there for us laymen.

 

[RUSTY_2_STANDS]

53

Thank you for your kind advice but my post had nothing to do with voting or picking winners or the Government's handling of the virus.

I was merely pointing out that the majority on here have a terrible record when it comes to predicting the outcome of political events.

"Trump will never get nominated"

"Trump will never get elected"

EU referendum, Scottish Independence referendum, etc, etc.

Or Fleetwood will never be in the same division as Blackpool. Oops, wrong thread

 

[TheSpiritOf53]

53

Forgot to say, Brexit was second favourite, obviously the odds varied all the time and you quote 25% (3/1) which it will have been at some point in time.

You say it was unjustifiably 3/1 and I assume you mean that you believe it should have been shorter - apologies if I have misunderstood.

If that was the case then you should have filled your boots because - as you advise above - it is not about trying to back winners.

It is about obtaining bigger odds about an occurrence than the true odds of that occurrence.

I am not sure that obtaining better than the true odds of an occurrence is that easy to be honest, I wouldn't be sure that your opinion on politics would be more informed than that of the bookmakers.

Please don't take that the wrong way 53 and apologies for changing the subject from politics to punting but you encouraged me.

Don't apologise it is a subject that I'm fascinated by too.

In the case of Brexit it was very close in the polls. About 2/3 were saying it would be a small win for Brexit and a 1/3 were giving it Remain by a similar margin. This should've meant Brexit was slight favourite but nobody believed the polls after the 2015 election. The thing is the polls do get it right 95% of the time so why should this poll be wrong unless we are seeing a new paradigm emerge. Most likely then that 2015 was just the 5% of times they are wrong.

So you are right I should've filled my boots but I didn't. Why not? Firstly, as you point out obtaining value from the bookies is very difficult and I'm aware of that fact. Secondly and more importantly, although my eyes were telling me to fill my boots the voices of David Cameron, Ed Milliband, Robert Peston, Nick Robinson, Beth Rigby etc etc were all telling me I was wrong. For me this says a lot about the power of the media and politicians to shape peoples opinions.

In the end I put a poxy fiver on Brexit to win and £50 on Brexit to get better than 45% which unbelievably was odds against. I've never been so disappointed with a win, ashamed of my cowardice.

 

[SEASIDE2020]

Don't apologise it is a subject that I'm fascinated by too.

In the case of Brexit it was very close in the polls. About 2/3 were saying it would be a small win for Brexit and a 1/3 were giving it Remain by a similar margin. This should've meant Brexit was slight favourite but nobody believed the polls after the 2015 election. The thing is the polls do get it right 95% of the time so why should this poll be wrong unless we are seeing a new paradigm emerge. Most likely then that 2015 was just the 5% of times they are wrong.

So you are right I should've filled my boots but I didn't. Why not? Firstly, as you point out obtaining value from the bookies is very difficult and I'm aware of that fact. Secondly and more importantly, although my eyes were telling me to fill my boots the voices of David Cameron, Ed Milliband, Robert Peston, Nick Robinson, Beth Rigby etc etc were all telling me I was wrong. For me this says a lot about the power of the media and politicians to shape peoples opinions.

In the end I put a poxy fiver on Brexit to win and £50 on Brexit to get better than 45% which unbelievably was odds against. I've never been so disappointed with a win, ashamed of my cowardice.

Spirit

I have enjoyed discussing it with you and thanks for putting up with my chite.

I hear what you say re folk on here listening to the media but they are the same folk - not you - who tell everybody not to listen to the media - that is when they are not making frivolous accusations of racism against those who dare to disagree with the chite they spout.

Brexit went out to around 10/1 on the night, as you suggest that was unbelievable but I am not going to pretend I had a carrot on myself.

 

[TheSpiritOf53]

Spirit

I have enjoyed discussing it with you and thanks for putting up with my chite.

I hear what you say re folk on here listening to the media but they are the same folk - not you - who tell everybody not to listen to the media - that is when they are not making frivolous accusations of racism against those who dare to disagree with the chite they spout.

Brexit went out to around 10/1 on the night, as you suggest that was unbelievable but I am not going to pretend I had a carrot on myself.

Remember that. There were rumours that a private poll with a mega sample size was done for some bank or hedge fund or some such organisation giving it to Remain quite decisively. Either wishful thinking by some, a crap poll or disinformation deliberately spread to move the financial markets.

 

[P t Barnum]

My misses is a tory but she won't vote for Boris as she thinks hes clueless and won't disagree with her

 

[Lytham_fy8]

This is probably more important than covid and brexit combined. Labour is in a pickle as the woke left continues to wrap itself in ever decreasing circles of contradictions. The silent majority will be watching and judging...

The 'silent majority' during social distancing...