The model calculation made of a hung parliament include Labour only winning one seat in Scotland ....... because no votes were held in Scotland last week and everything would therefore remain as it is now.
I think Sky were predicting Labour being 32 short of a majority. It is possible but unlikely that Scotland would return that many Labour seats.
It was based on last weeks voting patternsI think Sky were predicting Labour being 32 short of a majority. It is possible but unlikely that Scotland would return that many Labour seats.
However, there are lies, dam lies and statistics.
For me the real differential here will be if many vote for others than the main two as most I know are sick of both of them.
I just can’t see the majority of Tory’s (like me) who are sick and embarrassed by this bunch voting Reform to hand a victory to Labour.
I also cannot see me voting for Labour as I don’t have a clue what they really stand for and I don’t trust them not to try and remove KS and replace with a hard left candidate.
Just hope there is a serious decent independent I can agree with and vote for.
That's not a bad idea. They could start now with Kemi Badenock, Suella Braverman, Lee Anderson....oh wait a minute, that's 'hanged'. Sorry.
Correct - but they did comparisons and extrapolated results to the first pre Blair elections to get a better idea of what would happen in a GE.
I expect a lot of Green votes to go to Labour and the Lib Dems at the GE.
Probably in their interest to make it seem close.
Rishi is clutching at straws and also trying to keep morale up inside the party.
Neil, I would be very surprised if Reform win any seats at all in the GE. They only managed two councillors last week.
thanks El so i wasn’t to wide of the mark in my assumption then.
Possibly. They will definitely take votes away from the Tories. The Blackpool South style result on a national scale.
JMJ
its just one scenario. John Curtiss was pointing out that if the DEFORMS put a candidate up in every seat. Then that WOULD take huge amounts of votes from the TORIES. there would be no hung parliament.
Wasn't that David Steel with the Liberals?Correct - but they did comparisons and extrapolated results to the first pre Blair elections to get a better idea of what would happen in a GE.
The reality is who knows, with the exception they will not be right
If anything it’s a kick up the backside Labour may need.
Remember Neil Kinnock, saying something like ‘let’s get ready for power’ at the party conference - and that ended well for him!!
They wont get one. Apart from that dinosaur that signed on for them. But they will take votes away from Sunak.,
That's needed as well to put right the mess that the Tories have made of their time in Government.
I think a hung Parliament is a possibility if enough Tory seats go to the Lib Dems and Labour don't make any progress in Scotland. Even then, however, I could see a possible Lib-Lab pact, leading to a coalition Government. In Starmer's shoes I would take that. Getting rid of the Tories is the most important thing right now. That said, I wouldn't be happy for Labour to govern with the SNP. If it only needed help from the Greens that would be alright, although that would probably not be sufficient for a working majority.
I think Sky were predicting Labour being 32 short of a majority. It is possible but unlikely that Scotland would return that many Labour seats.
However, there are lies, dam lies and statistics.
For me the real differential here will be if many vote for others than the main two as most I know are sick of both of them.
I just can’t see the majority of Tory’s (like me) who are sick and embarrassed by this bunch voting Reform to hand a victory to Labour.
I also cannot see me voting for Labour as I don’t have a clue what they really stand for and I don’t trust them not to try and remove KS and replace with a hard left candidate.
Just hope there is a serious decent independent I can agree with and vote for.
Starmer has to tread very carefully at the moment. He's not going to go full on left wing right now. In fact, he's trying to appeal more to the South of the country. However, I fully expect Labour in office to start pulling the centreground of politics back to its real position instead of somewhere that the Tory right thinks it is.
Labour and the SNP currently running neck and neck in Scotland
Good question. My take is that the vast majority of Scots who turned away from Labour and to the SNP were sick and tired of the condescending and appalling way they were being ruled from Westminster. My Dad's side is Scots and were always Labour - go back three generations before me and one of the families were active Communists. In 2010 they moved to the SNP en masse (there's a lot of them). I hope they move back to Labour. Britain is three countries and all should play a part and be entitled to the same respect.
Thanks ElBurro, that's fair cheered me up.
I dont think Labour party has much of an influential hard left anymore, but the Conservatives have been dominated by a bonkers right for about 14 years.I think Sky were predicting Labour being 32 short of a majority. It is possible but unlikely that Scotland would return that many Labour seats.
However, there are lies, dam lies and statistics.
For me the real differential here will be if many vote for others than the main two as most I know are sick of both of them.
I just can’t see the majority of Tory’s (like me) who are sick and embarrassed by this bunch voting Reform to hand a victory to Labour.
I also cannot see me voting for Labour as I don’t have a clue what they really stand for and I don’t trust them not to try and remove KS and replace with a hard left candidate.
Just hope there is a serious decent independent I can agree with and vote for.
I don't detest anyone. I vote Labour for their policies. I don't detest Sunak. I quite fancy Mordaunt in a pervy kind of way. Relax mate and vote for the things you want our country to be.
Even though I didn't agree with the majority of their policies '66, I used to admire Labour as they tried to implement them and stick with their Manifesto.
Well you are right when you say left wing paper whereas there are many right wing papers!!
OK. From your perspective I would say this. The Tories have failed. Give Labour a chance. If they fail, at least you've given them a try.
I think thats the problem not many constructive policies are implemented, the Rwanda thing is extreme in my opinion, wanting to leave the EU was very extreme, running the NHS down which is more of a fact than a policy not great, apart from that its generally the smoke screen of culture wars and not policies, they generally dont benefit most people but distract from things that might benefit a few.
Which left wing papers are they? There aren't any other than the Mirror and the Guardian.
None of them are hard right
None of what you say is Hard Right though.
