Theoneandonly
Well-known member
So we’re officially in a recession until they massage the numbers. What have you noticed, how bad do you think it will be and how long do you think it will last?
That's because inflation has come down. Still going up at twice the target though, and food inflation is above that.Seems a lot better now than it was a year ago.
Someone really good at his job and a nice guy to boot had to shut up shop and mechanic I know had to mortgage his house to pay his mechanics due to customers not picking up their cars yet.Seems a lot better now than it was a year ago.
SadSomeone really good at his job and a nice guy to boot had to shut up shop and mechanic I know had to mortgage his house to pay his mechanics due to customers not picking up their cars yet.
Yes it is. It’s also sad to see layoffs coming to people who don’t know it. Tesla will be letting a lot of people go because China is subsidizing batteries and other ev companies cannot compete with government subsidies such as this. They did the same with furniture and wiped out domestic companies.
So we’re officially in a recession until they massage the numbers. What have you noticed, how bad do you think it will be and how long do you think it will last?
No big deal?!!!! Is this another example of Caring Conservatism?It's what's known as a technical recession and was fully anticipated because interest rates were kept high to get inflation down so it's no big deal. Low growth was expected. The last quarter showed marginal negative growth of -0.3% which followed a negative GDP in the September '23 quarter. The UK is probably already out of recession but the official figures won't be published until April.
No big deal?!!!! Is this another example of Caring Conservatism?
The latest administration……. Body Shop. Over 2000 jobs at risk. I bet those people think it’s a “big deal”.
The Body Shop UK enters administration threatening more than 2,000 jobs and 100 shops
Administrators are considering "all options" for the UK business and will let employees know of their fate "in due course" as trading is due to continue through the process.news.sky.com
Explain the 'technical' nature of the recession to the people in @Theoneandonly 's post above.It's what's known as a technical recession and was fully anticipated because interest rates were kept high to get inflation down so it's no big deal. Low growth was expected. The last quarter showed marginal negative growth of -0.3% which followed a negative GDP in the September '23 quarter. The UK is probably already out of recession but the official figures won't be published until April.
Yes, international corporate banking had a lot to answer for in 2008/09. This time around the cause was particularly British - a PM and Chancellor acting with hubris to burn and crashing the economy. To listen to you all that's happened has been despite the Tories' best efforts.You sound like Rachel Reeves. This is nothing like 2008/9 when the economy shrank by nearly 5%. Already business has picked up in 2024 and forecasters agree that growth will continue over the next few years. Unemployment is low, prices are rising slower than wages. Sad that businesses like Bodyshop and Wilko should fail, but it's not because of any recession.
So we’re officially in a recession until they massage the numbers. What have you noticed, how bad do you think it will be and how long do you think it will last?
Particularly British? Tell that to the Germans. In fact, tell it to 20 Eurozone countries as they struggle out of recession.Yes, international corporate banking had a lot to answer for in 2008/09. This time around the cause was particularly British - a PM and Chancellor acting with hubris to burn and crashing the economy. To listen to you all that's happened has been despite the Tories' best efforts.
It's what's known as a technical recession and was fully anticipated so it's no big deal. The last quarter showed marginal negative growth of -0.3% which followed a negative GDP in the September '23 quarter. The UK is probably already out of recession but the official figures won't be published
AI will put a lot of people out of work.You sound like Rachel Reeves. This is nothing like 2008/9 when the economy shrank by nearly 5%. Already business has picked up in 2024 and forecasters agree that growth will continue over the next few years. Unemployment is low, prices are rising slower than wages. Sad that businesses like Bodyshop and Wilko should fail, but it's not because of any recession.
Deluded.You sound like Rachel Reeves. This is nothing like 2008/9 when the economy shrank by nearly 5%. Already business has picked up in 2024 and forecasters agree that growth will continue over the next few years. Unemployment is low, prices are rising slower than wages. Sad that businesses like Bodyshop and Wilko should fail, but it's not because of any recession.
Deluded.
So insolvencies soaring but nothing to do with the government’s handling of the economy then. Or the recession.All your 2023 Guardian article says is that higher interest rates are pushing an increasing number of companies into insolvency. That's pretty obvious. Clearly, higher interest rates affect borrowing and inevitably flatline GDP. That's a trade-off for keeping inflation under control. Does that hurt the business sector? Of course it does. Will it work? It's already working. Could the situation have been better? Yes, if the BoE had taken earlier action regarding interest rates. Is the UK unique? No, most countries are struggling to maintain GDP levels. Is this the reason Body Shop is in administration? No, that's because it sells goods people no longer want to buy.
Lizz Truss and she’s still in denial mode!So insolvencies soaring but nothing to do with the government’s handling of the economy then. Or the recession.
Insolvency rates hit new highs as 2023 ends
In the final statistics release of 2023, the Insolvency Service confirmed that there were 2,466 registered company insolvencies in November 2023.www.stewartslaw.com
But no doubt any growth in the economy would be down exclusively to the unique genius and economic competence of Rishi and his gang.
Oh and let’s not forget the role played by Liz Truss in particular. And the members of the Tory party who thought she was a good choice for PM.
So insolvencies soaring but nothing to do with the government’s handling of the economy then. Or the recession.
So they're struggling out of recession while for us it's just 'technical'.Particularly British? Tell that to the Germans. In fact, tell it to 20 Eurozone countries as they struggle out of recession.
So they're struggling out of recession while for us it's just 'technical'.
You said we were heading for growth, implying no struggle at all. It was a given.Everyone in recession is struggling out of it, whether it's technical or full blown. I didn't think that needed explaining.
It is, and that's why this lot talk about anything else. Small boats, taking our jobs, claiming all our benefits will be the rhetoric between now and the election.Whilst part of the problem is a European thing (gas price increases) or self-inflicted (Brexit), inflation and (lack of) growth is going to define the election. People are poorer now than two years ago, and the GDP per capita is a more accurate indicator of the doldrums that Britain is in.
Sunak cannot take victory laps for halving inflation whilst trying to pass off the recession as beyond his control. I must say I found the Laura Trott (from the Treasury) interview worrying when she seemed unable to grasp - or acknowledge - that debt is as a percentage of GDP is in fact rising and not falling (as she claimed). Basic GCSE level economics.
Hopefully, the inane culture war rhetoric will largely be consigned to the political dustbin and the debate will be more on the cost of living crisis which it aught to have been all along.
It`s always the economy, stupid...
Really?You said we were heading for growth, implying no struggle at all. It was a given.
Really?
That reads utterly as no big deal, in fact you use the words. Nothing to see here.It's what's known as a technical recession and was fully anticipated because interest rates were kept high to get inflation down so it's no big deal. Low growth was expected. The last quarter showed marginal negative growth of -0.3% which followed a negative GDP in the September '23 quarter. The UK is probably already out of recession but the official figures won't be published until April.
doesn't meanThat reads utterly as no big deal, in fact you use the words. Nothing to see here.
You followed it up with a statement that Europe was struggling to get out of recession.
So really.
When you have an economy where I think it is 40% ish are living paycheck to paycheck and have no savings, another 25% or so cannot absorb a 400 pound emergency payment. That is 65% ish of workers that are not fully participating in the economy much beyond absolute needs. There is a large proportion of the UK population that has to decide between paying bills and eating: a significant proportion of people in full time jobs need periodic help from food banks. Even if there is only 3% unemployment those other issues, low wages and insecure employment, high living costs etc, show an economy that is broken. Economic growth doesnt matter: it does not reach 70-80% of the population, economic shrinkage really only impacts those people.Well with just over 3% of the population being unemployed, the economy should be booming.
Unfortunately that is such a massively massaged number as the vast majority of non tax payers are not included into the unemployed figure.
An economy with close to full employment should be in massive growth.
(Plus taxation is now so high that those who are tax payers are in major trouble)
You a bot?AI will put a lot of people out of work.
No but I do row.You a bot?
No you misunderstand me. I say particularly British because the direct and immediate cause of inflation and market turmoil in this country was precisely the Truss-Kwarteng budget. Yes, there have been European incidents of recession but ours happened when it did precisely for these reasons.Particularly British? Tell that to the Germans. In fact, tell it to 20 Eurozone countries as they struggle out of recession.
My view is that increased wages must be recognised with a change in the tax structure. I would reintroduce the 10p rate to help those at the lower end. I would move the standard rate up to £50k. I would then have an intermediate rate of 35p up to £100k. Above that, I would have a 50p rate up to £250k then a 70p rate above that.The issue is you cannot just keep squeezing those earning between £50-100k for more and more. That might seem a lot in the north however most professions down south pay that and in the cities up north.
Wages have increased but the tax levels didn’t so so many more people are paying higher or super tax to fund those super rich and corporations who avoid tax
No you misunderstand me. I say particularly British because the direct and immediate cause of inflation and market turmoil in this country was precisely the Truss-Kwarteng budget. Yes, there have been European incidents of recession but ours happened when it did precisely for these reasons.
Who’s going to pay for that?My view is that increased wages must be recognised with a change in the tax structure. I would reintroduce the 10p rate to help those at the lower end. I would move the standard rate up to £50k. I would then have an intermediate rate of 35p up to £100k. Above that, I would have a 50p rate up to £250k then a 70p rate above that.
Michelle Mone willWho’s going to pay for that?
Which happened because of the poor way that the Tory Government dealt with the economy, both before Truss/Kwarteng, during their pitiful tenure and subsequently. You don't want to listen directly you? Our economy tanked because of the Tories. If you don't want to listen to me then at least listen to the voters of Kingswood and Wellingborough. Or do you have your head firmly in the sand?It's interesting that you are ignoring the very same factors that have put almost all of Europe into recession and you have thrown the blame on Truss/Kwarteng. Apart from the weak Euro, which did not directly affect the UK, the reasons for the European and global recession, including those in the UK, are cost of living increases, particularly those related to fuel/power, interest rate rises, covid and the war in Ukraine.
The British taxpayers. An obvious answer to a silly question.Who’s going to pay for that?
Spot on 1966 it was a silly question to an absolutely stupid comment, but you bit as l would have expected!The British taxpayers. An obvious answer to a silly question.
Ah but my comment had reason behind it. Yours usually don't.Spot on 1966 it was a silly question to an absolutely stupid comment, but you bit as l would have expected!
Go on then please educate meAh but my comment had reason behind it. Yours usually don't.
I'd love to TB but you couldn't afford it.Go on then please educate me
who doesn’t love a debate over economicsI'd love to TB but you couldn't afford it.
Absolutely yes. Going home for my tea. Have good one TB.who doesn’t love a debate over economics