Are we on the verge of something really bad?

Russia happily sends assassins abroad to kill opponents and dissidents.
The problem is Putin, he is a megalomaniac whose upbringing in the KGB makes him think diplomacy is weakness and stops democracy within Russia.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
You could point me in the right direction? Maybe a clue?
Click to expand...
Sure.

Much has been unreported about the split in Ukraine of those who actually support, welcome and indeed fighting as separatists for a Pro-Russian movement - in Ukraine, or indeed those who were classed as Ukrainian, but still consider themselves as Russian.

This isn’t just about Putin being Satanic and NATO being Angelic, as the Western media heavily insinuate in their reporting.

To be fair your posts are like millions of others and I do understand how you’ve been hoodwinked.
 
TheEqualizer said:
No. I’ve not said that.

The point is quite simply that media can sway public opinions to believe a certain rhetoric as absolute fact with no further thought and independent verification gained.

This situation is a classic example of this.
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We have a pretty ‘open’ media though don’t we? Access to a range of perspectives, alternative political opinion etc… It’s not 1939
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
When have NATO dictated to Russia beyond don't invade this sovereign state?
Click to expand...
Th US threatened Russia over Cuba, which may as well be the same thing.

I think this article gives a good overview of the situation and explains better than I could why Russia fees threatened.

Russia feels threatened by NATO. There's history behind that

To Americans, the end of the Soviet Union 30 years ago is a done deal. To Putin, it's a catastrophe he longs to reverse.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
We have a pretty ‘open’ media though don’t we? Access to a range of perspectives, alternative political opinion etc… It’s not 1939
Click to expand...

Yes, I’d agree we do have a pretty open media.

Nonetheless, this isn’t so much necessarily a manufactured hoodwinking of a specific rhetoric (propaganda) - it’s more about the reports are very one sided in terms of the many other mitigating factors around the complexities of this situation aren’t as widely reported - leading to many posters imbalanced views.

One particular example which made me smile was a prolific poster claiming that Ukraine was invaded while Trump was President, when another was arguing the invasion was Biden’s fault - The irony is neither were true!
 
1966_and_all_that said:
My thoughts precisely.
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Why should Ukraine not have the self determination to join NATO. I was in Kiev two days after Russia invaded the Crimea, I'd been working in Ukraine for over ten years, and there was genuine fear across the city. Even ethnic russians who are ukranian are majority in favour of no interference from Russia. There is a very small proportion of the population who are often connected to or were leaders in the old Soviet regime who maintain ties with the Kremlin. The general population even ethnic russians who were not part of the Soviet elite have suspicions about Russian involvement in their country based largely on the fact that Russia starved the country into submission.

Ukraine has ambitions to join the EU and already has an association agreement. Does Russia have the right to determine whether Ukraine does that, or maybe when Ukraine wants to adopt more UN resolutions than Russia is happy with.
 
TheEqualizer said:
Yes, I’d agree we do have a pretty open media.

Nonetheless, this isn’t so much necessarily a manufactured hoodwinking of a specific rhetoric (propaganda) - it’s more about the reports are very one sided in terms of the many other mitigating factors around the complexities of this situation aren’t as widely reported - leading to many posters imbalanced views.

One particular example which made me smile was a prolific poster claiming that Ukraine was invaded while Trump was President, when another was arguing the invasion was Biden’s fault - The irony is neither were true!
Click to expand...
Part of Ukraine (Crimea) was illegally invaded by Russia though and the west stood back did nothing other than force a few sanctions which were just laughable.
 
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TheEqualizer said:
Sure.

Much has been unreported about the split in Ukraine of those who actually support, welcome and indeed fighting as separatists for a Pro-Russian movement - in Ukraine, or indeed those who were classed as Ukrainian, but still consider themselves as Russian.

This isn’t just about Putin being Satanic and NATO being Angelic, as the Western media heavily insinuate in their reporting.

To be fair your posts are like millions of others and I do understand how you’ve been hoodwinked.
Click to expand...
So just like the Nazi’s and the Sudetenland - and look how that turned out. What next - Moldova? There are huge similarities between modern day Russia and Nazi Germany - especially domestically
 
Putin is painting a picture of NATO as a threat to Russia, its not, its a defensive treaty designed to protect any member threatened by an aggressor.

There will be no appeasing Putin in the same way there was no appeasing Hitler. If he sees a gain to invading Ukraine he'll do it. In the same way NATO cannot allow itself to be dictated to, or it looses all credibility.

Rock and a hard place I'm afraid, as Mex said where's Chamberlain?'
 
TheEqualizer said:
Sure.

Much has been unreported about the split in Ukraine of those who actually support, welcome and indeed fighting as separatists for a Pro-Russian movement - in Ukraine, or indeed those who were classed as Ukrainian, but still consider themselves as Russian.

This isn’t just about Putin being Satanic and NATO being Angelic, as the Western media heavily insinuate in their reporting.

To be fair your posts are like millions of others and I do understand how you’ve been hoodwinked.
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So no actual facts about how we've all been hoodwinked? Just a vague story about some Ukranians being a bit traitorous?

Putin isn't amassing tens of thousands of troops on the border of an independent nation then? It's all a Western media conspiracy, just like Crimea?
 
1966_and_all_that said:
In 1914, we are told, we sleepwalked into war. Every day today we see headlines stating that things are getting worse. UK/Russia relations are at the worst they could be. A Russian invasion of a sovereign state is probably about to happen. Yet none of the West's supposedly senior politicians and diplomats have given Russia a serious way out. We need to present an offer that Russia seriously cannot refuse. No NATO membership for Ukraine and no NATO forces or equipment on their territory, dependent on a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the border and an end to Russian aggression should be the offer and it should be accepted. Anything less and the invasion will happen.

I hope beyond hope that it will not lead to WW3 but I can't see how it won't lead to cold war 2.
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You are quite right 66. Russia will never allow nato put troops or missiles in Ukraine, as pointed out in an earlier post in the early sixties Khrushchev attempted to get Cuba to have Russian missiles installed which nearly caused WW3 at the time. Diplomacy is the key, Blair listened to the Americans sabre rattling about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and look where that lead us to.
 
Junior_BentsPlatformShoes said:
Me too. I don’t think anyone can imagine what happens if they invade. I think Putin is confident that The West won’t intervene with force, it’s how much sanctions would hurt them and if they’re willing to take that.
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I don't think 'sanctions' against Russia will bother Putin.
He's the master of all he surveys, no one dare breath in Russia without his say-so. Putin is the complete master of Russia.
'Bump him off' anybody? Too difficult, wouldn't be able to get near him.
 
Davepick said:
I don't think 'sanctions' against Russia will bother Putin.
He's the master of all he surveys, no one dare breath in Russia without his say-so. Putin is the complete master of Russia.
'Bump him off' anybody? Too difficult, wouldn't be able to get near him.
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Isn't half the property market in London Russian owned? Given the richest people in Russia tend to have links to their government, I can see the freezing of assets might have a close impact on the wealthy individuals inside Putin's inner circle.
 
Some of you are looking at this from purely a western perspective. We are allies with the US but that doesn't stop them being the biggest war mongers over the last 100 years and I can see how Russia (irrelevant of who's in charge) would object to a country on its border being an affiliated ally of the US.
 
seasideone said:
Surely agreeing that the Ukraine can never join NATO unless it's attacked would solve the problem.
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Except that once it was attacked it would be too late to be part of Nato. Besides, Putin has already undermined Ukraine by promoting unrest and a civil war in SE Ukraine on the border of Russia. That was a classic tactic used by Hitler prior to invasions 80 years ago
 
Just watching BBC News. An English guy who's a teacher ìn Eastern Ukraine. He says nobody there is panicking. No panic buying of toilet rolls or bottled water!!

He's going to a football match this afternoon with his mates. He says most people have a plan if there is an invasion.

He drew an analogy with 2 footballers head to head with each other. The ref intervenes and they then get on with the game.

It's a good job Gary Madine isn't over there.

Also, spoke to my cousin yesterday. She lives in Manchester and her husband is Ukrainian. No panic by his family back home either.
 
bfcpete said:
Except that once it was attacked it would be too late to be part of Nato. Besides, Putin has already undermined Ukraine by promoting unrest and a civil war in SE Ukraine on the border of Russia. That was a classic tactic used by Hitler prior to invasions 80 years ago
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Ukraine can't join NATO now anyway because of the Crimea.
 
Davepick said:
I don't think 'sanctions' against Russia will bother Putin.
He's the master of all he surveys, no one dare breath in Russia without his say-so. Putin is the complete master of Russia.
'Bump him off' anybody? Too difficult, wouldn't be able to get near him.
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I was listening to the guy that created the Magnitsky law and his idea of sanctions against the oligarchs would i think be very effective in getting Putin to back down.

The Russian economy is tanking, and he no longer has widespread support, so at home he has to appear to be strong to the elites (protecting their privileges) and at the same time suppress any dissenting voices of ordinary people (which provides the cheap workforce for the elites). The general consensus is that Putin has a hidden personal stake in almost every major Russian corporation, he is widely believed to be the worlds richest single individual.
 
What is it with all these men of small stature?
I have read with interest this thread and what should be done, shouldn’t be done etc, but the bottom line is that poison dwarf Vladimir Putin started all this, no-one else.
You reap what you sow but ultimately it is the innocent who suffer and IF Putin decides to go ahead with the invasion (and from all media accounts, it appears more likely than unlikely at the moment) then he will ultimately pay the consequences.
Standing alone he does not have the military power to defeat the UN but it is the innocent lives that will be lost as a result. The general opinion of the Ukranian people is that they would rather stand and fight than to yield and let Putin walk all over them.
What is frightening however is, does Putin have any allies? Because if he does then there is a distinct chance of another World War. Imagine China and North Korea backing his corner; the mere thought is frightening.
I believe more talks are being held today between Putin and Biden, could this be the last opportunity to get him to back down or is Putin far too vain to retreat at the eleventh hour.
Maybe this was his plan all along but God help us if he goes ahead with it.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
Why should Ukraine not have the self determination to join NATO. I was in Kiev two days after Russia invaded the Crimea, I'd been working in Ukraine for over ten years, and there was genuine fear across the city. Even ethnic russians who are ukranian are majority in favour of no interference from Russia. There is a very small proportion of the population who are often connected to or were leaders in the old Soviet regime who maintain ties with the Kremlin. The general population even ethnic russians who were not part of the Soviet elite have suspicions about Russian involvement in their country based largely on the fact that Russia starved the country into submission.

Ukraine has ambitions to join the EU and already has an association agreement. Does Russia have the right to determine whether Ukraine does that, or maybe when Ukraine wants to adopt more UN resolutions than Russia is happy with.
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Of course Ukraine should have self-determination and it's nobody else's business outside of the EU if they want to apply for membership of that organisation. Likewise with any UN resolutions they might want to support - especially if they are critical of Russia.
However, there is a broader context to their geopolitical position in respect of Russia. A context that could threaten the whole world. My point is that there should be a bilateral agreement that keeps NATO forces and materiel out of Ukraine whilst requiring a commitment from Russia to keep their armed forces and missiles away from the shared border, both strategically and for any training purposes.
 
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Lytham_fy8 said:
So no actual facts about how we've all been hoodwinked? Just a vague story about some Ukranians being a bit traitorous?

Putin isn't amassing tens of thousands of troops on the border of an independent nation then? It's all a Western media conspiracy, just like Crimea?
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No, not at all.

I have given some factual accounts of other mitigating factors which aren’t as widely reported as others.

You’re obviously not aware of them if you’re describing Pro-Russian Ukrainian’s are “traitorous” - In fact, you’ve completely proven my point on being a typical Westerner hoodwinked in part on the most trumpeted story by the media.

The last paragraph of your post is a bit childish and not worthy of a response.
 
Southshoresteve said:
So just like the Nazi’s and the Sudetenland - and look how that turned out. What next - Moldova? There are huge similarities between modern day Russia and Nazi Germany - especially domestically
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Again, the facts Westerners make their opinions from are what’s reported.

The irony is you ask what next, Moldova - well Russian troops and a Pro-Russian “Government” already exists in Transnistria!

Westerners are lead by the media that this is all about Putin and NATO.

The fact remains everyone on this thread is naive to the feelings, status and complexities of the wider region.
 
TheEqualizer said:
Again, the facts Westerners make their opinions from are what’s reported.

The irony is you ask what next, Moldova - well Russian troops and a Pro-Russian “Government” already exists in Transnistria!

Westerners are lead by the media that this is all about Putin and NATO.

The fact remains everyone on this thread is naive to the feelings, status and complexities of the wider region.
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There is no irony - the fact is, like in Ukraine, Russian Troops intervened In Transnistria on the pretext of”protecting Russian people from persecution” - same argument as Hitler used. It’s a cynical ploy to be used as a land grab/furthering their military interests.
 
Southshoresteve said:
There is no irony - the fact is, like in Ukraine, Russian Troops intervened In Transnistria on the pretext of”protecting Russian people from persecution” - same argument as Hitler used. It’s a cynical ploy to be used as a land grab/furthering their military interests.
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No, the irony is that you said, “What next, Moldova?”

The irony is that they are already there!
 
1966_and_all_that said:
My thoughts precisely.
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Ukraine and any other country has the independent right to apply to join or leave whatever it likes, including NATO.

Why should, in this day and age, any country be bullied into doing something or not doing something legal under the threat of military aggression?

But yeah just agree to the bully’s terms and all will be well. Err no. That’s not how the world should operate. Surely such a cowardly and spineless position would encourage even more aggression across the world. Thankfully we don’t have such pathetic weak leaders as we do have social media commentators.
 
Malced said:
Ukraine and any other country has the independent right to apply to join or leave whatever it likes, including NATO.

Why should, in this day and age, any country be bullied into doing something or not doing something legal under the threat of military aggression?

But yeah just agree to the bully’s terms and all will be well. Err no. That’s not how the world should operate. Surely such a cowardly and spineless position would encourage even more aggression across the world. Thankfully we don’t have such pathetic weak leaders as we do have social media commentators.
Click to expand...

I know what you mean, and obviously that is morally right. The problem for Ukraine, and everyone else for that matter, is that it could easily get flattened, have it’s population decimated, and still end up under subjugation or with a puppet government in defence of that moral principle. Also it could easily all spill over into neighbouring countries.
Not sure there is a way out of this now though?
 
Yes. Very well summarised. I feel
though that there has to be this stance. It won’t be cost free for the Russians. They got away with it in Crimea to a great extent. But we need the international community to stand together to make them regret ever taking military action, if that’s what they go onto do. It not it will merely embolden them and who knows where that would lead.
 
Malced said:
Yes. Very well summarised. I feel
though that there has to be this stance. It won’t be cost free for the Russians. They got away with it in Crimea to a great extent. But we need the international community to stand together to make them regret ever taking military action, if that’s what they go onto do. It not it will merely embolden them and who knows where that would lead.
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I think if the genie is let out of the bottle with an invasion then who knows where it will end up, especially if the Chinese are going to back them up 😱 !
If this thing can be stalled and the Russians can then back down, save face, and maybe if necessary feel like they have gained some advantage (I don’t know what!) that might be the best we can hope for, but yes that will require a firm stance now, but probably not without some concessions.
 
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Malced said:
Ukraine and any other country has the independent right to apply to join or leave whatever it likes, including NATO.

Why should, in this day and age, any country be bullied into doing something or not doing something legal under the threat of military aggression?

But yeah just agree to the bully’s terms and all will be well. Err no. That’s not how the world should operate. Surely such a cowardly and spineless position would encourage even more aggression across the world. Thankfully we don’t have such pathetic weak leaders as we do have social media commentators.
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Calm down. See mine at #74.
 
Meanwhile over in Kaliningrad, (a little peice of Russia sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania) on the shores of the Baltic.
www.forbes.com

Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missile To Baltic In Range Of NATO Capitals

As U.S. paratroopers landed in Poland on Monday, a video posted on Telegram appears to depict the landing of a Russian MiG-31K Foxhound jet carrying a Kinzhal hypersonic land-attack missile in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea bordering Poland and Lithuania.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
1966_and_all_that said:
There was a majority sympathy for Russia in Crimea. Putin was pushing at an open
Click to expand...

It’s not as straightforward as that. The ‘little green men’ invaded and occupied Crimea and then held a referendum. The referendum itself was cleverly worded as a choice between joining Russia, or an independent Crimea that wasn’t part of Ukraine. There was no real option to remain in Ukraine.

Also the referendum results were reported as 95% in favor to join Russia with a 85% turnout (or there abouts), but the Russian government accidentally leaked the true figures which was a 40% turnout with 50-60% voting to join Russia.

Hardly strong support for joining Russia when most people don’t turn up to vote, because many know it’s pointless, and of those that do, only 50-60% vote for the Russian option vs the independent Crimean one.
 
LOVE THAT BIG NEGOTIATING TABLE (IS THAT STOP SOMEONE THUMPING HIM ON THE NOSE)🤣,SERIOSLY THOUGH I CANT SEE WW3 HAPPENING 🤞.
 
Putin must be sitting there laughing his socks off to see all western leaders running around making threats. HE knows they’ll agree a compromise and he’ll come out of it the winner, even if the deal doesn’t match his demands.

if not, he’ll go in and his allia with China will offset western sanctions.
 
The U. K, U. S and NATO have all said they won’t send troops in if Russia invades, and instead impose massive sanctions.

What will they do if Russia does invade and is successful in taking control of the country despite those sanctions? At what point will they decide they either have to go in, or walk away and leave the Ukrainian people.
 
Matesrates said:
The U. K, U. S and NATO have all said they won’t send troops in if Russia invades, and instead impose massive sanctions.

What will they do if Russia does invade and is successful in taking control of the country despite those sanctions? At what point will they decide they either have to go in, or walk away and leave the Ukrainian people.
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Russia have already took control of a part of Ukraine in Crimea and the west sat back and did absolutely nothing apart from some pathetic sanctions.
Looks like we’ll end up doing the same again. 🙄
 
Jaffa_The_Hut said:
Russia have already took control of a part of Ukraine in Crimea and the west sat back and did absolutely nothing apart from some pathetic sanctions.
Looks like we’ll end up doing the same again. 🙄
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What do you recommend, a military confrontation? If so, by whom, NATO (including the USA), a joint EU operation, the UK?
 
1966_and_all_that said:
What do you recommend, a military confrontation? If so, by whom, NATO (including the USA), a joint EU operation, the UK?
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It’s immaterial what I recommend but if Russia move into Ukraine they won’t move out again and the iron curtain moves closer to the west again which is exactly what Russia are moaning at now in that Ukraine don’t ever become a NATO member as they’ll feel threatened along the Ukraine border.
Should we stand back and do nothing though if they do invade? Absolutely not but any sanctions would be a complete waste of time.
Sadly though as in previous conflicts I can see Britain/US and maybe one or two others standing alone with the rest of Europe/the world turning the other way.
 
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Jaffa_The_Hut said:
It’s immaterial what I recommend but if Russia move into Ukraine they won’t move out again and the iron curtain moves closer to the west again which is exactly what Russia are moaning at now in that Ukraine don’t ever become a NATO member as they’ll feel threatened along the Ukraine border.
Should we stand back and do nothing though if they do invade? Absolutely not but any sanctions would be a complete waste of time.
Sadly though as in previous conflicts I can see Britain/US and maybe one or two others standing alone.
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OK it's just a message board. But, if you're going to make dismissive comments about one type of response it seems appropriate that you should provide your thoughts as to what should be done when asked about it.
 
The West should perhaps persuade Ukraine to become a neutral country along the lines of Finland which borders Russia but has had a non agression pact with Russia and the former Soviet Union for some considerable time.
I cannot but feel some anxiety, similar to how I felt that last weekend of October '62, never wanted to experience that again, but sadly could be heading for some sort of confrontation.
 
The past few years have seen us stagger from one self made crisis to the next, the lunatics took over the asylum a while ago and one of these days it will catch up with us, Covid was a shot across the bows. I'm glad I'm not in the first flush of youth because there's little good on the horizon.

If we somehow manage to stagger along for the next few decades the climate is going to finish us off anyway and all the self aggrandising slapping on the back of how great we are, all the hand wringing over border squabbles, the paranoia, all the money, the big important men, the average punters, the good people, our entire history, will disappear in flames, the earth won't miss us one bit.

Maybe our replacements, the next self aware species walking around on our ashes will do a better job, they can't do any worse. Or maybe the self awareness of our own mortality is our major flaw, we self destruct, because what's the point really if we're dead in a blink of an eye?
 
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Lytham_fy8 said:
The past few years have seen us stagger from one self made crisis to the next, the lunatics took over the asylum a while ago and one of these days it will catch up with us, Covid was a shot across the bows. I'm glad I'm not in the first flush of youth because there's little good on the horizon.

If we somehow manage to stagger along for the next few decades the climate is going to finish us off anyway and all the self aggrandising slapping on the back of how great we are, all the hand wringing over border squabbles, the paranoia, all the money, the big important men, the average punters, the good people, our entire history, will disappear in flames, the earth won't miss us one bit.

Maybe our replacements, the next self aware species walking around on our ashes will do a better job, they can't do any worse. Or maybe the self awareness of our own mortality is our major flaw, we self destruct, because what's the point really if we're dead in a blink of an eye?
Click to expand...

Oops! Spoiler alert!
 
What an interesting thread.

Firstly, why is it the easiest thing is to claim that people who disagree with you are blinkered and falling for MSM propaganda. Complete load of bollocks; that's plenty in here with first hand experience and fully knowledgeable about the geo-politics of the area.

To the matter in hand

I heard that the Russian economy is the start of Italy's; that isn't great considering the size of the country. But China being China they will use the trade surplus they have from the West to prop up Russia until it no longer suits them.

Back to Ukraine, I think it's hilarious that the Russians are scared of NATO membership there. It's no different to the Baltic States. And FWIW, we can launch missiles from all over the globe, there's no real advantage to sticking them in Ukraine.

Lastly, the only good thing about Trump (other than he was democratically elected and then democratically lost power) was that he was so erratic, nobody played chicken really.

I'm not so sure NATO/EU/West have the stomach for a fight military. Christ we can't even stop people trafficking! Putin is gambling on that being the case. It will be down to Ukrainians to save their own country, which will be pretty difficult if the Red Army genuinely want to advance.

Bit of a mess really and all completely unnecessary.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
My thoughts precisely.
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I might have missed the point but if Ukraine is attacked then surely it is a bit late to join NATO.
NATO is based on the principle attack one of us then we are obliged to come to your aid but I don’t think it is based on if one member decides to attack ANO for it’s own reasons the rest are obliged to actually follow.We are constantly told it a self defence based entity so hopefully that is the case.
Unfortunately and it saddens me to say so but to me Putin is effectively another Hitler in the making,if he isn’t already there.
 
bleach51 said:
I might have missed the point but if Ukraine is attacked then surely it is a bit late to join NATO.
NATO is based on the principle attack one of us then we are obliged to come to your aid but I don’t think it is based on if one member decides to attack ANO for it’s own reasons the rest are obliged to actually follow.We are constantly told it a self defence based entity so hopefully that is the case.
Unfortunately and it saddens me to say so but to me Putin is effectively another Hitler in the making,if he isn’t already there.
Click to expand...
Hopefully another Stalin, then we've only got five more years of the **.
 
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