Camberwell1
Well-known member
Fine so Grimmy’s the 2nd best keeper in the Division
In our first season in the Championship, he won usas many points as Bowler ! Just watch some of his saves that season egHull @ home
Grimmy
- Thread starter tangysider
- Start date
In our first season in the Championship, he won usas many points as Bowler ! Just watch some of his saves that season egHull @ home
AllTheBoysAreCheerin'
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Seasider1953
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As previously stated I agree , Grimmy is a good keeper, just not at his best on Tuesday night .
Fylde Seasider
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The reference to "castigating Grimmy" was directed at another poster 'Satriele Pork' who I replied with this post. It's also then a bit unfair to tag or quote me as though I was having a pop at you.
But by initiating this negative thread you did give permission to his detractors to turn it into a bash Grimmy thread.
tangysider
Well-known member
Not a negative thread, we all try to give our opinions, which I tried to do.The reference to "castigating Grimmy" was directed at another poster 'Satriele Pork' who I replied with this post. It's also then a bit unfair to tag or quote me as though I was having a pop at you.
But by initiating this negative thread you did give permission to his detractors to turn it into a bash Grimmy thread.
Would you rather have me posting Grimmy for England?
Hazi
Well-known member
Englands No.1
Long-shanks
Well-known member
Brilliant save. Keepers mistakes are always scrutinised but Grimmy for me is quality
Satriale's Pork Store
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Brilliant penalty save
But poor for the free-kick
But poor for the free-kick
Northstandsinger
Well-known member
Agree not seen it back yet though but thought he should have saved the free kick, but he saved a goal with the pen save.
PoolRule4EVA
Well-known member
Also agreed re pen and free kick.
However, his unwillingness to command his six yard box on crosses, whether they be from corners, free kicks or open play is a big weakness. Probably due to his lack of height for a keeper.
JohnnnyQuidd
Well-known member
100% at fault for the free-kick, he should be closer to his post. DogShit goalkeeping...
JohnnnyQuidd
Well-known member
D) yeah, the fella between the sticks for Posh today. Composed with it at his feet, commanded his area, excellent shot stopping... Without him for them we may have nicked an equaliser and could have been a different game...
Orange on Acid
Well-known member
Taking it to a Grimmy v Posh GK, well yeah he had a good game, but how many good games have you seen Grimmy have? Too many. Great GK.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
@td53 I thought I’d come back to this one after picking up on some further stats over the weekend.
You seem to be the resident expert, so perhaps you can explain them away, because on the face of it they don’t make very good reading. We’ve already discussed the kicking stats and @Simonized has been clinging on to the Clean Sheet stats (Which I think are more of a Team effort), but on the face of it (and it’s this season in particular) our Save % is terrible.
In fact as a club we are bottom of the rankings and Grimmy currently sits 26/28 for his Save % (That’s seems V Poor for a side in our position)
If you couple that with the good Clean Sheet % (5/24) and the fact that we are 3/24 in terms of Shots on Target conceded, then (if I’m reading it right) it suggests we have a tight defence (I.e. we’re not giving away too many chances) but our keeper is letting in too many of the chances we do concede??
Based on stats at the higher end, this could have cost us 7-9 goals (a possible 8-12 points) this season so far.
On the face of it, of course, Grimmy doesn’t appear to have been terrible, although there have been rumblings from our fan base recently about shots he should have saved and poor positioning, which is why I thought I’d see what the numbers said.
So what’s the script? Do we have an issue or can something else explain the anomaly?
You seem to be the resident expert, so perhaps you can explain them away, because on the face of it they don’t make very good reading. We’ve already discussed the kicking stats and @Simonized has been clinging on to the Clean Sheet stats (Which I think are more of a Team effort), but on the face of it (and it’s this season in particular) our Save % is terrible.
In fact as a club we are bottom of the rankings and Grimmy currently sits 26/28 for his Save % (That’s seems V Poor for a side in our position)
If you couple that with the good Clean Sheet % (5/24) and the fact that we are 3/24 in terms of Shots on Target conceded, then (if I’m reading it right) it suggests we have a tight defence (I.e. we’re not giving away too many chances) but our keeper is letting in too many of the chances we do concede??
Based on stats at the higher end, this could have cost us 7-9 goals (a possible 8-12 points) this season so far.
On the face of it, of course, Grimmy doesn’t appear to have been terrible, although there have been rumblings from our fan base recently about shots he should have saved and poor positioning, which is why I thought I’d see what the numbers said.
So what’s the script? Do we have an issue or can something else explain the anomaly?
td53
Well-known member
I think you'd have to look at the XS metric (i.e. expected saves) - the keeper equivalent of XG to know truly if Grimmy is letting too many in or not. I can't find that for League 1 anywhere.
(I'm not sure it's called 'XS' but it does exist)
Fbref has the best stats but it doesn't appear to do very much depth for league 1. For champ you can see all sorts, average position on pitch - shots saved vs shot quality, crosses claimed etc but not for league 1.
He had a decent shot stopping record in the championship - which makes it a bit strange that he doesn't seem to have a good record this year.
I wonder to what extent not having a dominant centre half impacts on the types of goals we concede. That could be an argument for a more dominant keeper I guess. We do seem to concede a few easier goals, the ones on Saturday were poor defensively as well as in relation to Grimmy.
Like you, I'd stick with the back 3 but I do think we miss Marv on crosses into the box. Possibly having 3 footballing defenders plus a keeper who likes to stay in his line and react makes us a bit soft at the back.
That said, a defender with Marv's physical attributes who can also really play as the back 3 can would be a £10 million player. Not sure how good O Donnell is either. He seems ok but from what little I've seen, he's pushed a few back out to a striker.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
I can’t find any XS stats…
Obviously we have the SoTA (Shots on Target Against ) stat and the Save % stat… with Save% being the percentage of Shots on Target Against that are saved.
DG is currently saving far less of those Shots on Target Against than all other keepers.
So either there’s something unusual about the types of shots against to us, that makes them more likely to go in OR DG is performing to a poorer standard than most keepers.
The defence generally are obviously performing well, because we are giving away one of the least number of goal scoring opportunities.
Is there a way of getting the xG against stat?
td53
Well-known member
You won't find them for League 1. I think PsXG vs GA is what I mean. I.e. the quality of the chance vs the goals conceded.
On FBref Grimmy's profile has his stats from Opta. I don't think Opta covers below Champ or if it does, doesn't make the data available..
It shows thus - he's an excellent shot stopper and very weak on crosses.
As I said above, i think these stats cover only his Champ games that come within last 365 days, not his performances this season as it includes only about 8 games worth of data.
However, some sites DO have league 1 XG so I assume it's possible to calculate the PsXG v GA somehow but no one does. At least not without paying for data.
td53
Well-known member
I'll try and find the collective XG against.
td53
Well-known member
XGA = 1.08 GA = 1.27
Crudely therefore you'd estimate Grimmy is -0.19 per game (though I honestly don't know if the PxGA vs GA is as crude as that)
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
OK and I suppose at the other end of the spectrum you might expect the better keepers to show the opposite effect.
td53
Well-known member
Yes, as per Grimmy for his previous seasons.
I'm not reigniting Grimmy vs Maxwell but in both Champ seasons Grimmy had a positive set of numbers and Maxwell lower numbers (I think slightly negative, but not spectacularly so - i.e. not 'he costs us a goal every week' level by any means.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
His Save % has dropped from 76% last season) which is pretty much in line with the best in L1) to 60.4% this season (which is rock bottom of L1).
That’s massive
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
Yep, we can see that, which is the reason I dug the stats out really… I was interested to see whether or not the stats backed up ‘our eyes’.
It seems that they do and as you say, we need him to sharpen up.
td53
Well-known member
It is, yes
We seem to have a lot of situations where grimmy is left facing a striker at far post having not defended a cross. I'm not sure if it's structural or individual or as probably the case, a bit of both. We're also playing with wingers as full backs not old style full backs which might explain that.
The difference is also we don't play with a 4 or a dominant centre half - Marvin, Keogh, Nelson etc who win crosses. Obviously our centre halves do win crosses but possibly less. This might mean Grimmy is this more exposed to a different type of shot (close range, angled across him) than before.
As his obvious weakness is not claiming crosses, then he doesn't do anything to mitigate that.
That's my best attempt at working out 'why' other than he's just not diving as well as he did.
td53
Well-known member
The one advantage of the five is it turns Hubby into a genuinely world class player.
He's got most assists so far this season...
He's a centre half
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
I’m not sure I particularly buy that to be honest.
In terms of chances conceded (or Shots on Target Against at least) only Portsmouth and Stevenage are statistically better than Blackpool.
I’m also not entirely convinced we have been particularly bad in terms of dealing with crosses. From what I’ve witnessed (and I haven’t looked at any stats if there are any) we seem to win most aerial balls in the box pretty comfortably.
The one ball that seems to get us has perhaps been the ball beyond the back post??
td53
Well-known member
Yeah, but we've had a few (ok, at least 1
) that have been flicked on of late to get there.Fun facts:. 120 players have played centre back in league one.
Here is their rank by number of headers they've won. (All aerial duels, not just defensive and raw data, i.e. not success rate per challenge)
Connelly 3
Casey 31
Penno 38
Jimmy 57
Marv 70
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td53
Well-known member
We're actually quite high too when you look at aerial challenges lost.
Penno and Casey are about 31 and 33 and hubby about 45.
(In this case, lower is worse)
We win a reasonable amount but we lose a reasonable amount and none of the regular center backs are 'dominant'
It could be down to not stopping it at source, so I'll look at tackles by wide players now.
Penno and Casey are about 31 and 33 and hubby about 45.
(In this case, lower is worse)
We win a reasonable amount but we lose a reasonable amount and none of the regular center backs are 'dominant'
It could be down to not stopping it at source, so I'll look at tackles by wide players now.
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td53
Well-known member
So, it's fairly grim reading. Tackles per game by ful backs - 107 players total - here is how all of our players who've played there rank.
CJ (Ole!) 57
Dale 61
Thommo 75
Connolly 104!
I could look at block or interceptions I guess but the lad has just finally got up and I'm going out which is probably good for my sanity...
CJ (Ole!) 57
Dale 61
Thommo 75
Connolly 104!
I could look at block or interceptions I guess but the lad has just finally got up and I'm going out which is probably good for my sanity...
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
So let’s throw those detailed stats out to what we are actually seeing out there in reality then?
Based on the ‘hypothesis’ we’d expect to see a predominance of a certain type of goal and a clear pattern in real life.
Is that the case ?
voyeur
Well-known member
Got to be worth trying a back 4 surely. We are leaking goals left right and centre. 2 per game for the last 6 games. It can't go on!
Pennington is good at RB and Hubby at LB. Marv excels in a 4. Casey and Marv should work, Casey to play the ball out, Marv as the last man sweeper dude.
I like 4231 and we have the players for it. Posh play it effectively. And it's easily adapted for two up front, just take out one of the midfield triangle.
Pennington is good at RB and Hubby at LB. Marv excels in a 4. Casey and Marv should work, Casey to play the ball out, Marv as the last man sweeper dude.
I like 4231 and we have the players for it. Posh play it effectively. And it's easily adapted for two up front, just take out one of the midfield triangle.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
I think we’re spuds deep with the 352 to be honest amd Rhodes is far more effective in a 2. What we gain with one hand we could easily lose with the other.
td53
Well-known member
I'm not sure you'd expect to see an overwhelming pattern. What you'd conclude is we're not great at stopping wingers and quote average at dealing with the results of wing play. Though, it's possible we're very good at stopping the threat earlier (i.e. pressing or retrieving possession in midfield)
I think that weakness chimes with what we've seen recently though over course of season I don't know.
I don't generally spend much time working out 'who is to blame' for each goal because all players will make mistakes and I hate the tendency to point fingers at every goal as if it's actually possible to concede zero over the season.
Take Jimbo on Saturday. He was clearly trying to play it forward quickly to start a break (correct choice in circumstances) but it got intercepted and turned into 'a howler' - for me, he makes right choice with wrong outcome. Errors are inevitable. Defences will concede, even brilliant ones.
It is also clear our wide players are weaker defensively. We always look better when CJ/Dale are on front foot because fundamentally, they aren't defensive specialists.
It also perhaps chimes with how other teams attack. We play 3-3 in the middle so logically, we're going to get pressured wide as we're solid centrally, especially with Norburn.
Someone would need to clip up all our goals conceded from the first moment of possession for opposition I guess and we could have a fun evening of pattern recognition and blame apportionment
td53
Well-known member
I agree.
For better or worse.
My view is we need to get midfield balance right and play with more conviction and stop the periods of play where we appear to be treading water and that it's not particularly about formation.
I'm convinced that with a fit Virtue we'd have a more coherent structure.
Leyland bfc
Well-known member
Lyon’s would be better at RB hes got goals in him,even from full back
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
I'm not sure you'd expect to see an overwhelming pattern. What you'd conclude is we're not great at stopping wingers and quote average at dealing with the results of wing play. Though, it's possible we're very good at stopping the threat earlier (i.e. pressing or retrieving possession in midfield)
I think that weakness chimes with what we've seen recently though over course of season I don't know.
I don't generally spend much time working out 'who is to blame' for each goal because all players will make mistakes and I hate the tendency to point fingers at every goal as if it's actually possible to concede zero over the season.
Take Jimbo on Saturday. He was clearly trying to play it forward quickly to start a break (correct choice in circumstances) but it got intercepted and turned into 'a howler' - for me, he makes right choice with wrong outcome. Errors are inevitable. Defences will concede, even brilliant ones.
It is also clear our wide players are weaker defensively. We always look better when CJ/Dale are on front foot because fundamentally, they aren't defensive specialists.
It also perhaps chimes with how other teams attack. We play 3-3 in the middle so logically, we're going to get pressured wide as we're solid centrally, especially with Norburn.
Someone would need to clip up all our goals conceded from the first moment of possession for opposition I guess and we could have a fun evening of pattern recognition and blame apportionment
OK, Let me phrase it a different way... You'd expect to see a regular pattern (in terms of the type of goals being conceded) if Grimmy's poor Save % was down to something other than Grimmy himself. In other words there needs to be something unique about the type of chances that Blackpool concede when compared to other sides (otherwise Grimmy has to be judged on the same basis as any other keeper).
Looking at a few recent games, I think that a couple of things have become apparent....
1. When Playing with 3 at the Back, I think it exposes Grimshaw's limitations at dealing with crosses.
(Arguably, a more commanding keeper might have dealt with certain balls instead of being rooted to his line)
2. We have conceded a good few breakaways (too many)
3. Grimshaw has almost certainly fluffed a few that he could and possibly should have saved
4. I think Oliver Casey (in particular) has possibly been exposed defensively at times (Free Kick (Red Card) vs P'Boro, (both Cheltenham Goals), Charlton's 1st Goal, Derby's 2nd & 3rd..... For what we gain in terms of confidence on the ball and passing, I think his lack of pace and aerial ability compared with Eki has potentially cost us goals.
5. A random and unrelated one, but something that became apparent... Carey has certainly been more active, involved and better than a lot of people (including me) have given him credit for recently.
td53
Well-known member
1. Yes.
2. Yes, I wonder to what extent we've seen this of late without Norburn which limits the way the five can become a 4 if he drops and the wide players go. Whoever replaces Norburn isn't of the same skill set. You'd be happy to drop in Norburn as an auxiliary centre back in an emergency but I don't think anyone else.
3. Agreed.
4. Yes. I agree. He's had some superb games but also some where he's been bullied a bit.
5. Sonny Carey football genius
voyeur
Well-known member
There's always cost and gain with formation shifts. Obviously. But we need to stop conceding two a game. And I think Marv is a part of that. And it's possible to play two up front and 4 at the back.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
I understand that, but for me it seems a bit foolhardy and unnecessary to throw the towel in when we’ve spent 1/3 of the season working to develop the squad within this system. I also can’t see it happening.
Presumably Ekpiteta will step in for Casey and that will probably strengthen us defensively at least. We possibly need to be looking at a more complete CH come January (Pace & Defensive qualities of EKi and passing, ball playing ability of Casey).
voyeur
Well-known member
I doubt we'll sign another CB and I don't think we really need to. We've got four or five pretty good L1 options with Eki Penno Casey Husband Connolly.
And I don't think switching to four at hhe back is a big deal. The players are well accustomed to it and are more comfortable in it than in a 3/5. I reckon.
2 goals a game being condeded.
LeeCharlesTV
Well-known member
It may just be me but I like a keeper that looks like a keeper, that is imposing, a bit of a giant of a man really, one who commands his area, catches anything and everything, can find our players either throwing it out or kicking. makes quick decisions and puts the team on the attack (yeah I know they cost about about £150M 
)
I don't dislike Grimmy but I just don't see any of that? I know it's never gonna happen but I think back to how I felt when Joe Hart came here on loan, he absolutely had everything, shot stopping, commanding his area and it was no surprise he was such a big part of the perfect 10 and that goalkeeping display away from home, I think it was Cheltenham? where he pulled off some saves in the 2nd half that were Gordon Banks! OMG it was beyond belief (there used to be a video of it on YouTube from behind the goal wish I could find it?) honestly it feels like its just a million miles away from what we are watching now.
I know we were down to 10 men and that's hard but my heart sank every time they broke away because I just knew they would score I had no faith that he would he would pull off a wonder save, he does occasionally but all keepers do.
He has yet to convince me that he is an absolute rock and I think back to Maxwell at Sunderland in that 2nd half and in the last 10 minutes (good god it was unbelievable) the last time we got up it. I honestly cannot imagine Grimmy doing that but I hope he does and I hope that we don't get on his back if he doesn't because it doesn't help
)I don't dislike Grimmy but I just don't see any of that? I know it's never gonna happen but I think back to how I felt when Joe Hart came here on loan, he absolutely had everything, shot stopping, commanding his area and it was no surprise he was such a big part of the perfect 10 and that goalkeeping display away from home, I think it was Cheltenham? where he pulled off some saves in the 2nd half that were Gordon Banks! OMG it was beyond belief (there used to be a video of it on YouTube from behind the goal wish I could find it?) honestly it feels like its just a million miles away from what we are watching now.
I know we were down to 10 men and that's hard but my heart sank every time they broke away because I just knew they would score I had no faith that he would he would pull off a wonder save, he does occasionally but all keepers do.
He has yet to convince me that he is an absolute rock and I think back to Maxwell at Sunderland in that 2nd half and in the last 10 minutes (good god it was unbelievable) the last time we got up it. I honestly cannot imagine Grimmy doing that but I hope he does and I hope that we don't get on his back if he doesn't because it doesn't help
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
Switching to 4 at the back obviously isn't a big deal as such, because we pretty much do it in the current system, when out of possession.
I think it's more a case of the work and effort that will have gone into the intricacies of how we play the current system (in and out of possession) and the associated patterns of play that will have been worked on in training to drill it into the players. Essentially a genuine change of shape would inevitably mean we'd have to go back to the drawing board, which means a lot of time and effort (and progress) will have been wasted.
I wonder if the whole '2 goals per game' thing is a bit of a red herring to a certain extent (at least as far as the system is concerned)... There's a range of factors (not least that we've been chasing the game vs both P'Boro and Derby, the former being with 10 men and probably been a bit complacent in a couple of others).
All that said, it would be useful to be able to have an alternative system up our sleeve and we do seem to be struggling to do the whole 'control the game' thing (to out possess and contain sides when necessary as it were) and maybe a 4231 might be something we could employ when appropriate?
voyeur
Well-known member
I hear what you are saying about hhe system change but it's just not that big a deal. As you say, we have four at the back at times anyway. The patterns are not significantly different and they aren't working brilliantly anyway. And three at the back is giving us problems out wide, both defensively and attacking, I think. Compromise in both. Our wing backs aren't good at defending so the back three are stretched wide.
And I've never believed in putting your biggest attacking threat because he compromises the defensive set up and that needs to be the priority. Or putting a central defender at wing back cos he's the best defender of the options. Skewed thinking IMO.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
Fair play, I think we’ll probably have to agree to disagree on this one for now.
I possibly put more weight on the work we’ve done to date (in terms of honing the system)’than you do, which is fair enough.
It will be interesting to see how the loss of Casey / introduction of Eki ( I presume) impacts and whether it’s enough to solidify us and improve the goals conceded.
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voyeur
Well-known member
Yes it's not a black and white debate. But we put a load of work into honing 433 in summer 2020 and abandoned it after 9 or 10 games with immediate effect. Because we adopted a system familiar to the players that they were comfortable within. The need is not so urgent this time and I am not sure he will do it, but I see no reason not to. We need to be able to play more than one system. Will he put Marv into the centre of the three? Probably, for the one game at least. Casey one game out?Fair play, I think we’ll probably have to agree to disagree on this one for now.
I possibly put more weight on the work we’ve done to date (in terms of honing the system)’than you do, which is fair enough.
It will be interesting to see how the loss of Casey / introduction of Eki ( I presume) impacts and whether it’s enough to solidify us and improve the goals conceded.