Have we gone too soon ?

Adams Kebab said:
Unfortunately a tool that was meant to get us out of this and save lives is causing complete and utter mayhem and isn’t fit for purpose.

School kids, Workforce’s, NHS Staff etc. having to isolate whilst fit and healthy really is now 18 months in, complete and utter lunacy.
Click to expand...
Had a positive Covid test. Sent off for a PCR and surprise surprise it was negative but in the process lost 3 days work and others were affected as they also had to isolate. The lateral flow kits are unreliable. They will be bumping up cases recorded in the process.
 
Foolweary said:
As I'm somebody who is not in the UK can someone explain to me what on earth is going so wrong, what is causing the explosion of cases?

This time last year without the vaccine cases were as good as nothing, we were told that was seasonal variation. But now with the vaccine the cases climb is near vertical.

Other similar countries with very few measures in place and similar vaccinations levels (I'm in Germany) are not seeing the case count anything like the UK. So what is behind it?

I say this as someone who has not been able to visit family in the UK for 9 months and I'm getting the awful feeling I might end up waiting till next spring at this rate. which is too awful to contemplate.
Click to expand...
It's the Delta variant which is much more transmissible and better at escaping the vaccine. It has only just become the dominant variant in Germany in the past 2 weeks. Now it has a foothold there, it will spread quicker than any of the previous variants.

There are other factors too, like the Euros crowds and people becoming weary of restrictions so giving up caring but it's more to do with the variant.
 
Personally I think this is the break for the herd immunity border. They have timed it now in the hope that as many people as possible are infected now before winter, The hope is they can build up anti bodies and the vaccine will slow the death rate down. The NHS may still be put under unsurmountable pressure but that remains to be seen.

The Govt are never going to admit to this line of thought and it is a monumental gamble but even the removal of legislation regarding the mask wearing and scrapping social distancing all point to it being the case.

As Adams Kebab alludes 99% of people are not dying of covid and at some point life has to return to a type of normality. I dont know what the acceptable level of deaths will be (and one is too many) but this is a calculated risk and an attempt to treat Covid infections the same way as flu in the future. We dont close the whole economy down for flu each year and that can kill 30k people in a bad year. I would scrap track and trace as it is a money pit and does not work with any accuracy at all.
 
CalderwoodCritchleyWon’t said:
Had a positive Covid test. Sent off for a PCR and surprise surprise it was negative but in the process lost 3 days work and others were affected as they also had to isolate. The lateral flow kits are unreliable. They will be bumping up cases recorded in the process.
Click to expand...
According to Government data if a LFT positive is followed up by a PCR test negative then the LFT test positive is removed from the recorded cases. False positive LFT tests are not pushing up the recorded figures.
 
TANGERINETOWERPOWER said:
Personally I think this is the break for the herd immunity border. They have timed it now in the hope that as many people as possible are infected now before winter, The hope is they can build up anti bodies and the vaccine will slow the death rate down. The NHS may still be put under unsurmountable pressure but that remains to be seen.

The Govt are never going to admit to this line of thought and it is a monumental gamble but even the removal of legislation regarding the mask wearing and scrapping social distancing all point to it being the case.

As Adams Kebab alludes 99% of people are not dying of covid and at some point life has to return to a type of normality. I dont know what the acceptable level of deaths will be (and one is too many) but this is a calculated risk and an attempt to treat Covid infections the same way as flu in the future. We dont close the whole economy down for flu each year and that can kill 30k people in a bad year. I would scrap track and trace as it is a money pit and does not work with any accuracy at all.
Click to expand...
Good post TTP. It’s no coincidence with the vaccination numbers dropping driven by the reluctance by many people (predominantly the younger element) that everything is now opening up with large crowds at sporting and music events, discos, hotels etc etc, it’s herd immunity through the back door in time for schools reopening and the arrival of autumn / winter. We will have to brace ourselves for ever increasing figures and at some point other countries will have to make similar decisions but doubt they will do this in the winter months, so other countries could effectively be 12 months behind England until this time next year. IMO.
 
Foolweary said:
As I'm somebody who is not in the UK can someone explain to me what on earth is going so wrong, what is causing the explosion of cases?

This time last year without the vaccine cases were as good as nothing, we were told that was seasonal variation. But now with the vaccine the cases climb is near vertical.

Other similar countries with very few measures in place and similar vaccinations levels (I'm in Germany) are not seeing the case count anything like the UK. So what is behind it?

I say this as someone who has not been able to visit family in the UK for 9 months and I'm getting the awful feeling I might end up waiting till next spring at this rate. which is too awful to contemplate.
Click to expand...
Because it’s a different variant
 
Bloodtangerine said:
Because it’s a different variant
Click to expand...

Yep.

My unscientific guess is that, coming from India, it has evolved to spread more easily in warm climates, whereas the earlier variants were much happier in cooler environments.

It'll be interesting to see if delta can maintain it's advantage as we move into winter.
 
Last edited:
TANGERINETOWERPOWER said:
Personally I think this is the break for the herd immunity border. They have timed it now in the hope that as many people as possible are infected now before winter, The hope is they can build up anti bodies and the vaccine will slow the death rate down. The NHS may still be put under unsurmountable pressure but that remains to be seen.

The Govt are never going to admit to this line of thought and it is a monumental gamble but even the removal of legislation regarding the mask wearing and scrapping social distancing all point to it being the case.

As Adams Kebab alludes 99% of people are not dying of covid and at some point life has to return to a type of normality. I dont know what the acceptable level of deaths will be (and one is too many) but this is a calculated risk and an attempt to treat Covid infections the same way as flu in the future. We dont close the whole economy down for flu each year and that can kill 30k people in a bad year. I would scrap track and trace as it is a money pit and does not work with any accuracy at all.
Click to expand...
That's the gamble they seem to be hell-bent on doing. However they, the government, have cocked up everything so far bar the vaccine, and another variant is a big risk in the Petri dish of this septic isle. Time will be the judge, and that may come very soon. Having such a shambles of a government when covid hit was a cruel fate.
 
brightontangerine said:
That's the gamble they seem to be hell-bent on doing. However they, the government, have cocked up everything so far bar the vaccine, and another variant is a big risk in the Petri dish of this septic isle. Time will be the judge, and that may come very soon. Having such a shambles of a government when covid hit was a cruel fate.
Click to expand...

So what would you do differently?
 
Lost Seasider said:
So what would you do differently?
Click to expand...
I haven't applied for a job in the government, but there are several junctures during this pandemic I would not have done what Boris has done. There's no need to repeat it it's there for all to see in the fatality figures. So it stands to reason he is just continuing in the same vein which is wind there is every reason to doubt he has got it right this time. Unless you can convince me otherwise
 
Lost Seasider said:
Yep.

My unscientific guess is that, coming from India, it has evolved to spread more easily in warm climates, whereas the earlier variant were much happier in cooler environments.

It'll be interesting to see if delta can maintain it's advantage as we move into winter.
Click to expand...
Given that Covid spreads by close proximity of people, of course it will maintain its “advantage” in winter as people stay mainly indoors. That’s how respiratory viruses spread. Unfortunately, by autumn there is still likely to be a considerable reservoir of the virus ready for a fifth wave. Or, God forbid, an even nastier variant. Such as this “South African” version. Let’s hope the vaxxing continues to be effective and is pressed home with the recalcitrants.

Track and trace has been an absolute shambles. It should have been working properly when infection rates were very low, so as to contain pockets of infection. It can’t really cope in controlling spread with the 50,000+ daily cases we have now. The virus moves faster than the pinging. And, as we have seen, it is throwing out half a million notifications and crippling businesses reopening.

The eventual Public Inquiry will be a lesson in how not to run Public Health functions and thus how not to control a pandemic disease. Don’t expect that to start before late 2022 and not to conclude before 2024 or even later... when all the miscreants will have left the stage clutching their baubles, K’s and ermine-trimmed cloaks.
 
Last edited:
cruzzer said:
All the questions “what would you do blah blah” is getting dull.
Click to expand...

I find it interesting that lots of posters on here have convinced themselves that they know better than the CMO and that the government is doing it completely wrong, but strangely none of them can say what they would do differently.
 
Archibald Knox said:
Given that Covid spreads by close proximity of people, of course it will maintain its “advantage” in winter as people stay mainly indoors. That’s how respiratory viruses spread.
Click to expand...

The advantage in this case is relative to other variants of Covid and, if my hypothesis is correct, it is far from certain that this will be maintained into winter.
 
Lost Seasider said:
The advantage in this case is relative to other variants of Covid and, if my hypothesis is correct, it is far from certain that this will be maintained into winter.
Click to expand...
Considering the delta variant comprises 99% of current infections, it would take an even more infectious variant to supplant it. I doubt the delta (Indian) variant is a hot-weather-only beast. What do you advise? Would you tell the country not to turn on the central heating in October? 🤨
 
Lost Seasider said:
You know we've not actually done that badly in terms of excess mortality, behind Spain/Portugal, quite some way behind Italy & USA, behind Poland in absolute numbers with not far off twice the population, and some in Eastern Europe have been even harder hit.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Click to expand...
I think you're being rather selective as to how you are viewing those figures. Anyway you cut it our figures are shocking and what cannot be denied is that time after time they have called lock downs too late, or for instance put India on the red list too late . Look there are a catalogue of errors that have cost a lot of lives and just remember this is the government who kept saying they don't want to compare themselves to other countries. So let's just take them up on that. Perplexes me why people continue to defend failure
 
brightontangerine said:
I think you're being rather selective as to how you are viewing those figures
Click to expand...

I think you're the one being selective, saying that our death rate is terrible whilst ignoring differences in reporting and the fact that many similar countries have suffered far worse.


brightontangerine said:
Anyway you cut it our figures are shocking
Click to expand...

It's a very infectious and very dangerous virus.


brightontangerine said:
and what cannot be denied is that time after time they have called lock downs too late, or for instance put India on the red list too late .
Click to expand...

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.


brightontangerine said:
Look there are a catalogue of errors that have cost a lot of lives
Click to expand...

Really? Name the ones that are obvious without the benefit of hindsight.


brightontangerine said:
and just remember this is the government who kept saying they don't want to compare themselves to other countries. So let's just take them up on that.
Click to expand...

IIRC what they said was that the only way to compare against other countries was with excess mortality and that is what I am doing.


brightontangerine said:
Perplexes me why people continue to defend failure
Click to expand...

Simple, I don't like posters who want to make political capital out of a global pandemic, usually from a position of ignorance.
 
Lost Seasider said:
I think you're the one being selective, saying that our death rate is terrible whilst ignoring differences in reporting and the fact that many similar countries have suffered far worse.




It's a very infectious and very dangerous virus.




With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.




Really? Name the ones that are obvious without the benefit of hindsight.




IIRC what they said was that the only way to compare against other countries was with excess mortality and that is what I am doing.




Simple, I don't like posters who want to make political capital out of a global pandemic, usually from a position of ignorance.
Click to expand...
😂
 
Archibald Knox said:
Considering the delta variant comprises 99% of current infections, it would take an even more infectious variant to supplant it. I doubt the delta (Indian) variant is a hot-weather-only beast. What do you advise? Would you tell the country not to turn on the central heating in October? 🤨
Click to expand...

I'm not advising anything, I'm simply suggesting that we might see an alpha comeback later in the year.
 
Lost Seasider said:
I find it interesting that lots of posters on here have convinced themselves that they know better than the CMO and that the government is doing it completely wrong, but strangely none of them can say what they would do differently.
Click to expand...
Neither do you, except quote random statistics to suit your agenda.

You are the perfect career politician, taking other people’s ideas and touting them as your own. You’ll go far until you get found out for being a fraud, just like Boris has.
 
cruzzer said:
Neither do you, except quote random statistics to suit your agenda.
Click to expand...

And I'm prefectly clear about that, which is why my posts generally boil down to "the CMO is probably right".



cruzzer said:
You are the perfect career politician, taking other people’s ideas and touting them as your own. You’ll go far until you get found out for being a fraud, just like Boris has.
Click to expand...

I hardly think I can be accused of passing off other peoples ideas as my own when I provide links to the source.
 
brightontangerine said:
That's the gamble they seem to be hell-bent on doing. However they, the government, have cocked up everything so far bar the vaccine, and another variant is a big risk in the Petri dish of this septic isle. Time will be the judge, and that may come very soon. Having such a shambles of a government when covid hit was a cruel fate.
Click to expand...
You have to be joking considering the alternative at the time was auld Jezza the Loon in charge with his insane bunch of crazies John?
 
Bloodtangerine said:
You have to be joking considering the alternative at the time was auld Jezza the Loon in charge with his insane bunch of crazies John?
Click to expand...
Blood I'm not a Tory, you might have detected , but note I didn't suggest it should be a Labour government merely a competent government. In football terms we've got a league 2 outfit suddenly find themselves playing in the premier League. But in all honesty I don't think jezza could have done any worse and I'm no supporter of his. At least it wouldn't have been marked by the levels of corruption we seem to be faced with, and lying bastards left right and centre.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
To be fair even though I posed the question I don't think we should but as it stands employers are being hung out to dry

We've had to batten down before ' Freedom Day 'as we can't afford an outbreak
Click to expand...
Calling it Freedom Day encourages a reckless and irresponsible attitude which some are all too keen to display as saw last week.
 
Bloodtangerine said:
You have to be joking considering the alternative at the time was auld Jezza the Loon in charge with his insane bunch of crazies John?
Click to expand...
Team sheet
1. Johnson (variant)
2. Javid (left then right back)
3: Hancock ( red card, foul play)
4. Williamson ( aka Frank Spencer)
5. Shapps ( left winker)
6. Patel ( the 'enforcer' 🤯)
7. Sunak ( poacher)
8. Trialist
9. Trialist
10. Also ran
11. Err cant think of anyone else.
Subs
All their mates and donors
 
brightontangerine said:
Blood I'm not a Tory, you might have detected , but note I didn't suggest it should be a Labour government merely a competent government. In football terms we've got a league 2 outfit suddenly find themselves playing in the premier League. But in all honesty I don't think jezza could have done any worse and I'm no supporter of his. At least it wouldn't have been marked by the levels of corruption we seem to be faced with, and lying bastards left right and centre.
Click to expand...
Jezza could have done a lot lot lot worse mate
 
Bloodtangerine said:
Jezza could have done a lot lot lot worse mate
Click to expand...
I really do not think so blood. Just look at Boris, yes just look at him. The man is a despicable human being. Who would you ask to look after your wallet , Boris or jezza, maybe neither but who the most ? Although you know where to look for Boris if he went off with it just look in any decent sized fridge
 
As I mentioned on another thread it looks like many seem to be taking advantage of self isolation to avoid the schools summer holiday vacation.
I was genuinely amazed how many kids were in Cornwall 2 weeks ago on school days and very much doubt that they were all from Scotland who broke up earlier than England as distance alone would make that challenging (plus they’d have to have been great accent mimics too).
Think self isolation has suited a lot of people this last 12 months and has damaged so many small businesses
 
brightontangerine said:
I really do not think so blood. Just look at Boris, yes just look at him. The man is a despicable human being. Who would you ask to look after your wallet , Boris or jezza, maybe neither but who the most ? Although you know where to look for Boris if he went off with it just look in any decent sized fridge
Click to expand...
Your mind is made up so I wont bother mate. You look after yourself 👍
 
The reason we are stuck with Bozo and the most self serving Govt of all time is because of the exceptionally poor quality of opposition. Corbyn was possibly the worst labour politician in my lifetime and was completely unelectable (despite what staunch reds will tell you)...Starmer had a chance to be the new broom and sweep clean but has bottled it and kept too many Corbynistas stinking the place out. This means a free ride for Bozo and co and I still think they would win again if there was an election tomorrow despite their gross incompetence and hypocrisy at every turn.
 
brightontangerine said:
Team sheet
1. Johnson (variant)
2. Javid (left then right back)
3: Hancock ( red card, foul play)
4. Williamson ( aka Frank Spencer)
5. Shapps ( left winker)
6. Patel ( the 'enforcer' 🤯)
7. Sunak ( poacher)
8. Trialist
9. Trialist
10. Also ran
11. Err cant think of anyone else.
Subs
All their mates and donors
Click to expand...
Subs is the word. That's what they pay. £100,000 will get you a fast track to a contract.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top