I hope Rishi gets some sleep tonight.

O

Ollygon

Well-known member
Tomorrow's going to be a crap day for him, with the loss of 2 more seats in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth.

And with Peter I've got a Boner, and Snotty Bent-one soon to be ousted, he's going to lose his majority before the due date of the next General Election.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
Not sure about this, Mid Beds may stay Tory with Labour and Libdems splitting the protest vote.
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Agreed, expecting two Conservative holds. Headline news will be about the 'Rishi reset' working. The right wing press will continue to sleepwalk into what could be a Tory wipeout at the GE. The fact these two seats are close is remarkable. Blair didn't win Mid Beds in 1997, not even close, and the Tories will likely only keep it now because of an unusually strong Lib Dem performance. Tamworth is their 55th biggest majority. If that is close it indicates Labour would likely win a 200+seat majority if an election were held tomorrow, perhaps close to 300.
 
foggy said:
Agreed, expecting two Conservative holds. Headline news will be about the 'Rishi reset' working. The right wing press will continue to sleepwalk into what could be a Tory wipeout at the GE. The fact these two seats are close is remarkable. Blair didn't win Mid Beds in 1997, not even close, and the Tories will likely only keep it now because of an unusually strong Lib Dem performance. Tamworth is their 55th biggest majority. If that is close it indicates Labour would likely win a 200+seat majority if an election were held tomorrow, perhaps close to 300.
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Sorry what right wing press?

To me it looks like since Covid there is no such thing as right wing press, the press as a whole couldn't wait to stick the knife in

Anyway question for you;

How do you feel about the Labour move to a central ground?

They certainly don't look like a left wing party to me, didn't really support the recent strikes and are now standing firm with Israel

Don't need war and peace just maybe either you are pro the move to the middle or against it

Thanks in advance
 
Phil_bfc deux said:
Sorry what right wing press?

To me it looks like since Covid there is no such thing as right wing press, the press as a whole couldn't wait to stick the knife in

Anyway question for you;

How do you feel about the Labour move to a central ground?

They certainly don't look like a left wing party to me, didn't really support the recent strikes and are now standing firm with Israel

Don't need war and peace just maybe either you are pro the move to the middle or against it

Thanks in advance
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Bloody hell. All my work on you has paid off.
 
Phil_bfc deux said:
Sorry what right wing press?

To me it looks like since Covid there is no such thing as right wing press, the press as a whole couldn't wait to stick the knife in

Anyway question for you;

How do you feel about the Labour move to a central ground?

They certainly don't look like a left wing party to me, didn't really support the recent strikes and are now standing firm with Israel

Don't need war and peace just maybe either you are pro the move to the middle or against it

Thanks in advance
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The Murdoch tabloids, who are still backing the Tories...for now. The Daily Mail basically reprints Conservative HQ press releases as their headlines. They are in for a massive shock once they realise all their sources are no longer in parliament after next year.

I'm basically of the opinion that a party seen as left-wing can't win in the UK. If New Labour wasn't left-wing, then we haven't had a 'proper' left wing government for 50 years. I think you have to win from the centre and move outwards. I also think that is broadly true for the Tories too, not counting a few years where Brexit threw a wrench in things. But it's all perception at the end of the day. I think Labour is quietly doing some radical things. Their acceleration of net zero, modernisation of the electrical grid, Great British Energy, the workers rights bill, their rejection of NIMBYism and fight for housing development, these are all things I like, and they carry political risk. I dislike other policies, which I can expand on (not scrapping the 2 child benefit cap). I begrudgingly accept Labour is handcuffed with the state of the economy though, and living through the cost of living crisis and mortage rate and subsequent rent increases, I can certainly appreciate the need for tight discipline. They need to find ways to raise more money post election though. It won't come from growth, not that quickly, and there is a financial black hole looming in the 2025/26 treasury accounts neither party seems to want to mention. I think more tax rises are likely, whoever wins.
 
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foggy said:
The Murdoch tabloids, who are still backing the Tories...for now. The Daily Mail basically reprints Conservative HQ press releases as their headlines. They are in for a massive shock once they realise all their sources are no longer in parliament after next year.

I'm basically of the opinion that a party seen as left-wing can't win in the UK. If New Labour wasn't left-wing, then we haven't had a 'proper' left wing government for 50 years. I think you have to win from the centre and move outwards. I also think that is broadly true for the Tories too, not counting a few years where Brexit threw a wrench in things. But it's all perception at the end of the day. I think Labour is quietly doing some radical things. Their acceleration of net zero, modernisation of the electrical grid, Great British Energy, the workers rights bill, their rejection of NIMBYism and fight for housing development, these are all things I like, and they carry political risk. I dislike other policies, which I can expand on. I begrudgingly accept Labour is handcuffed with the state of the economy.

I will add, there is a financial timebomb coming in 2025/26 and beyond. The Treasury numbers don't add up in current spending plans, without sudden significant growth. The Tories aren't talking about it and Labour aren't talking about it either. There is little left to cut. Tax rises may unfortunately be inevitable, but nobody will dare mention that now, for obvious reasons. Labour think they can solve this without spending money, which is an unfortunate hangover of the 2010s and 'magical money tree' attacks, and also a fantasy. I think Reeves is starting to allow herself a little flexibility even though she still talks about 'iron discipline', if you pay close enough attention, the breadcrumbs are starting to emerge, which is good. Someone grown up has to end the madness. The current path is not sustainable.
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Great analysis. I can't disagree with anything you've written.
 
Ollygon said:
I agree, but as the German Chancellor and Ursula von Leiden have already visited, I think he's been a bit behind the game.
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Would that be Ursula Von Leiden Hosen? I’m sure I met her in the Bier Keller in Blackpool many years ago, smashing girl…. Why did she go to Palestine, I think you might mean Palatine? 😂😜
 
Ollygon said:
Tomorrow's going to be a crap day for him, with the loss of 2 more seats in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth.

And with Peter I've got a Boner, and Snotty Bent-one soon to be ousted, he's going to lose his majority before the due date of the next General Election.
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You omitted his big deal with India has collapsed too. What a guy.
 
hertfordseasider said:
Would that be Ursula Von Leiden Hosen? I’m sure I met her in the Bier Keller in Blackpool many years ago, smashing girl…. Why did she go to Palestine, I think you might mean Palatine? 😂😜
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Nah. Now you're getting mixed up. That's Ursula von Undress. She's still around, but hasn't aged well. All the frankfurters and sauerkraut.
 
foggy said:
The Murdoch tabloids, who are still backing the Tories...for now. The Daily Mail basically reprints Conservative HQ press releases as their headlines. They are in for a massive shock once they realise all their sources are no longer in parliament after next year.

I'm basically of the opinion that a party seen as left-wing can't win in the UK. If New Labour wasn't left-wing, then we haven't had a 'proper' left wing government for 50 years. I think you have to win from the centre and move outwards. I also think that is broadly true for the Tories too, not counting a few years where Brexit threw a wrench in things. But it's all perception at the end of the day. I think Labour is quietly doing some radical things. Their acceleration of net zero, modernisation of the electrical grid, Great British Energy, the workers rights bill, their rejection of NIMBYism and fight for housing development, these are all things I like, and they carry political risk. I dislike other policies, which I can expand on (not scrapping the 2 child benefit cap). I begrudgingly accept Labour is handcuffed with the state of the economy though, and living through the cost of living crisis and mortage rate and subsequent rent increases, I can certainly appreciate the need for tight discipline. They need to find ways to raise more money post election though. It won't come from growth, not that quickly, and there is a financial black hole looming in the 2025/26 treasury accounts neither party seems to want to mention. I think more tax rises are likely, whoever wins.
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Get elected first then move the political discussion leftwards. Don't forget, after 13 years in office the Tories have moved the perceived centre very much to the right.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Anyone know of any exit polls?
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No they don't do them for by-elections but people on the ground usually get a decent indicator of what the parties think based on turnout and doorknocking. The early word seems to be Labour feeling cautiously positive about Tamworth and I've read that they are actually ahead in postal votes, which seems a good indicator they are headed for victory - especially as miserable weather today will have depressed turnout.

Mid Beds seems too muddled a picture to get any sense on thanks to the 3-way vote. Conservatives are sending out fairly despondent comms already, which may be expectation management.
 
For lots of reasons I think the election will be in May and Rishi may be happy to give up PMs job and let labour have a go. Most PMs age quickly in the job but he looks no different so appears to cope well with the stress
 
Just shows how bad the Conservatives have been if people really want Starmer to lead this country.

They have been useless.

Law & Order
Education
Brexit
Immigration
COVID

Just useless.
 
Only 35% voted in one. Probably couldn't be arsed as they're both useless, so rather than vote for Labour they haven't voted at all.
 
Just seen a couple of quotes from Tory MPs on the right of the Party.

They're saying the reason they lost is that the Government isn't radical enough.

They really don't get it. The sooner these extremists are out, the better.
 
Rishi insisted on going with being a change PM at the recent Tory party conference. What he failed to recognise was that the change people want includes his departure
 
Ollygon said:
Just seen a couple of quotes from Tory MPs on the right of the Party.

They're saying the reason they lost is that the Government isn't radical enough.

They really don't get it. The sooner these extremists are out, the better.
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Like Liz Truss for example? That went well for them
 
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