Is the Conservative Party literally dying out?

[ElBurroSinNombre]

Latest polling shows that in the under 50s age group support for left or centre left parties runs at 81%. Conservative support is at 10%. I would guess that this 81% grouping includes Labour, SNP, Green, Lib Dem, Welsh Nationalists etc.

Is the Conservative party literally dying out?
Or will they recover amongst younger people in the future? If so, how will they do this?

 

[poolseasider]

Reminds me of that old jokey observation- If you are not Liberal when you are young,you have no heart and if you are not a Conservative when old,you have no brain.

The problem with that polling hardly anyone wants the Tories of any age!

 

[spudgun]

They will regenerate into something more acceptable to the electorate they serve. This latest iteration will be seen as a low water mark and derided by historians...

 

[ElBurroSinNombre]

They will regenerate into something more acceptable to the electorate they serve. This latest iteration will be seen as a low water mark and derided by historians...

I'm not sure.
The current riders and runners for the next Conservative Party leader are all extremely right wing;
Braverman, Badenoch or even Farage are all current favorites.
There is no candidate from the one nation wing of the party and even if they did stand they would probably be knocked out pretty early on as Rory Stewart found out last time.
Perhaps Jeremy Hunt would be the stability candidate - however given the demographic of the party membership he wouldn't win (again).

 

[spudgun]

I'm not sure.
The current riders and runners for the next Conservative Party leader are all extremely right wing;
Braverman, Badenoch or even Farage are all current favorites.
There is no candidate from the one nation wing of the party and even if they did stand they would probably be knocked out pretty early on as Rory Stewart found out last time.
Perhaps Jeremy Hunt would be the stability candidate - however given the demographic of the party membership he wouldn't win (again).

Understand what you`re saying EBSN.

It will possibly not be immediate nor with the current crop of politicians. It may take many years before they make themselves acceptable to the public after the debacle of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. If Labour make a decent fist of it the Conservatives will want to move back to the centre I guess...

 

[ElBurroSinNombre]

Understand what you`re saying EBSN.

It will possibly not be immediate nor with the current crop of politicians. It may take many years before they make themselves acceptable to the public after the debacle of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. If Labour make a decent fist of it the Conservatives will want to move back to the centre I guess...

A major problem is that Conservative party membership isn't a thing amongst younger people. The average age of membership is I believe 81 and these people are generally further to the right than the electorate. Collectively they have made some very bad choices from the leadership candidates.
To get a one nation, centrist unifying figure, they would need to get a different membership. But what reasonable one nation Tory would join a party lead by Farage (for instance) or Braverman?
IMO a more likely scenario is the formation of a new centre right party in the tradition of the old Conservative party whilst the current rump withers further and becomes more like reform.

 

[foggy]

Reminds me of that old jokey observation- If you are not Liberal when you are young,you have no heart and if you are not a Conservative when old,you have no brain.

The problem with that polling hardly anyone wants the Tories of any age!

This used to pretty fairly reflect the shift in voting but not anymore, polling and voting data shows people are not getting more conservative as they get older, there's a small rise but it's massively decreased. And it makes sense, these days it's not just what we think of as 'young people' who can't afford a house, it's voters who are 35, even 40+. They can't own a home or get an NHS appointment or get a train to work on time reliably, and if they can it's too expensive, and it trickles past rivers full of shit while private owners of the water companies get billions in dividends. At this stage you'd have to be pretty brainless to not think something is wrong with our current ruling class. Whether you think Labour will solve all that is oviously another debate, but most are going to shift to the most viable alternative available.

I personally think a Tory wipeout at the next election is undervalued and I've been banging this drum for 18 months now. If there was an election tomorrow it would be a safe bet for Labour to win by 250 seats. Add in some tactical voting that will occur and the decent possibility that things get even worse and we could easily be looking at the Tories getting fewer than 40 seats with out FPTP system and Labour on 500+. Not saying I'd bet on that, but it's more possible than most realise. As the Tories delay the election it appears things are actually getting worse for them in the polls. On top of that I'm betting it will be a disastrous campaign. Rishi is irritable and doesnt like being questioned and will have some very loud bad moments while he's out campaigning, and their election guru seems to think 'Labour will go back to square one' is a wining message.

With the writing on the wall I've been able to enjoy enjoyed their twice a month resets. Lee Anderson is going to win us the red wall! The 'war on motorists' will bring everyone back! Our leader had a pop at trans people in his conference speech! Muslims will abandon Labour! And then nothing changes in the polls. Still a 20 point Labour lead. Turns out people across all demographics care most about the economy, housing, healthcare and immigration. Everything else is noise and distraction. To borrow a phrase: It's the economy, stupid.

 

[ElBurroSinNombre]

This used to be pretty fairly reflect the shift in voting but not anymore, polling and voting data shows people are not getting more conservative as they get older, there's a small rise but it's massively decreased. And it makes sense, these days it's not just what we think of as 'young people' who can't afford a house, it's voters who are 35, even 40+. They can't own a home or get an NHS appointment or get a train to work on time reliably, and if they can it's too expensive, and it trickles past rivers full of shit while private owners of the water companies get billions in dividends. At this stage you'd have to be pretty brainless to not think something is wrong with our current ruling class. Whether you think Labour will solve all that is oviously another debate, but most are going to shift to the most viable alternative available.

I personally think a Tory wipeout at the next election is undervalued and I've been banging this drum for 18 months now. If there was an election tomorrow it would be a safe bet for Labour to win by 250 seats. Add in some tactical voting that will occur and the decent possibility that things get even worse and we could easily be looking at the Tories getting fewer than 40 seats with out FPTP system and Labour on 500+. Not saying I'd bet on that, but it's more possible than most realise. As the Tories delay the election it appears things are actually getting worse for them in the polls. On top of that I'm betting it will be a disastrous campaign. Rishi is irritable and doesnt like being questioned and will have some very loud bad moments while he's out campaigning, and their election guru seems to think 'Labour will go back to square one' is a wining message.

With the writing on the wall I've been able to enjoy enjoyed their twice a month resets. Lee Anderson is going to win us the red wall! The 'war on motorists' will bring everyone back! Our leader had a pop at trans people in his conference speech! Muslims will abandon Labour! And then nothing changes in the polls. Still a 20 point Labour lead. Turns out people across all demographics care most about the economy, housing, healthcare and immigration. Everything else is noise and distraction. To borrow a phrase: It's the economy, stupid.

I feel it will be closer than your prediction, the effects of the new boundary changes to constituencies will generally benefit the Conservatives. And something might turn up as Rishi is hoping.
As you say, Rishi has the reverse Midas touch when it comes to dealing with the public, he physically bridles when he is contradicted and displays a rather petty, angry and dismissive persona. We can expect many moments of entertainment in the spirit of him asking a homeless man if worked in business - I am actually looking forward to the comedy as the political equivalent of Will from the Inbetweeners goes about his campaign.
However there are two unknown / new factors that may support your argument of a Con wipeout, the fragmentation of and decrease in support for nationalist parties in Scotland and the leaching of 10% of Conservative support by Reform.
A very large Labour majority would be bad for democracy IMO. Labour should IMO support electoral reform given the more fragmented voters that we have nowadays. Hopefully they wouldn't become too arrogant too quickly if they win by a landslide.

 

[poolseasider]

I feel it will be closer than your prediction, the effects of the new boundary changes to constituencies will generally benefit the Conservatives. And something might turn up as Rishi is hoping.

The boundary changes will be better for Labour on the Fylde Coast as the new areas are all Lab strongholds.
Blackpool South takes on Layton,Grange Park & Claremont.
Whilst Blackpool North goes in with Fleetwood.

 

[foggy]

I feel it will be closer than your prediction, the effects of the new boundary changes to constituencies will generally benefit the Conservatives. And something might turn up as Rishi is hoping.
As you say, Rishi has the reverse Midas touch when it comes to dealing with the public, he physically bridles when he is contradicted and displays a rather petty, angry and dismissive persona. We can expect many moments of entertainment in the spirit of him asking a homeless man if worked in business - I am actually looking forward to the comedy as the political equivalent of Will from the Inbetweeners goes about his campaign.
However there are two unknown / new factors that may support your argument of a Con wipeout, the fragmentation of and decrease in support for nationalist parties in Scotland and the leaching of 10% of Conservative support by Reform.
A very large Labour majority would be bad for democracy IMO. Labour should IMO support electoral reform given the more fragmented voters that we have nowadays. Hopefully they wouldn't become too arrogant too quickly if they win by a landslide.

All the electoral analysis and modelling I've seen with new vs old boundaries has it producing a negligble effect. We're talking Labour winning a 248 majority instead of a 252, in fact it's possible it would actually help Labour gain a couple.

The bigger impact by far is tactical voting which has been devastating for the Tories in by-elections and is another thing being underappreciated. That could add 20-30 seats to Labour's majority.

 

[basilrobbie3]

Interesting thread this.

I think both foggy and ESBN are right in different ways. I certainly think a complete collapse in the Tory vote is underpriced, especially as I expect more damaging stuff about their links with Russian donors will emerge and register more with voters the closer we get to the GE. And yet I also expect the Tory vote to rally somewhat from its current very low levels - their core vote can be relied upon to turn out.

I don't understand what the Tory strategy is, in doubling down on the extreme rhetoric ; perhaps they are aiming to somehow get to 35% and hope to be the biggest party in a hung Parliament. But to my mind, if people want that kind of xenophobic, anti-Europe, anti-immigration Government they are likely to vote for Reform as the real thing - especially if they make good on their threat to stand everywhere (which I think they will).

That split in the vote on the right - and the extent to which it happens - is I think key to the eventual outcome. The left of centre has more parties, but I think that they will campaign tactically and voters will follow suit, more or less. FFP is vulnerable to this phenomenon if it happens ; couple that with Reform getting (say) 10-12% and you can see a very big landslide for Labour.

I'm keeping an eye out for the market on seats won ; there could be some value there on the spreads in due course.

 

[foggy]

Interesting thread this.

I think both foggy and ESBN are right in different ways. I certainly think a complete collapse in the Tory vote is underpriced, especially as I expect more damaging stuff about their links with Russian donors will emerge and register more with voters the closer we get to the GE. And yet I also expect the Tory vote to rally somewhat from its current very low levels - their core vote can be relied upon to turn out.

I don't understand what the Tory strategy is, in doubling down on the extreme rhetoric ; perhaps they are aiming to somehow get to 35% and hope to be the biggest party in a hung Parliament. But to my mind, if people want that kind of xenophobic, anti-Europe, anti-immigration Government they are likely to vote for Reform as the real thing - especially if they make good on their threat to stand everywhere (which I think they will).

That split in the vote on the right - and the extent to which it happens - is I think key to the eventual outcome. The left of centre has more parties, but I think that they will campaign tactically and voters will follow suit, more or less. FFP is vulnerable to this phenomenon if it happens ; couple that with Reform getting (say) 10-12% and you can see a very big landslide for Labour.

I'm keeping an eye out for the market on seats won ; there could be some value there on the spreads in due course.

I would counter there that the core vote that are Tory are already captured in polling and are that 22-25% the Tories are currently on. Public opinion has lagged the fundamentals for a long time but when asked more people are now saying they expect a Labour lead. If this continues to rise and everyone expects a landslide by the time the campaing stars, Tory voters are more likely to not both to show up, it becomes a bit of a death spiral. This is what I think will happen. Turnout plumetted in 1997 and in 2001. Nobody really remembers that of course. They are remembered for being Labour landslides.

Also btw sorry I never replied to that DM you sent me, I vaguely remember being busy and aiming to coming back to it but then forgot about it.

 

[ElBurroSinNombre]

If Sunak is still leading (it's possible that he will be deposed, although it would have to be very soon) we can expect many more moments like this;

I'm sure this sort of out of touch arrogance will influence a few floating voters. You have to remember that the person he is speaking to worked in the NHS, I very much doubt that Sunak uses the NHS.
Starmer will also of course provide moments of comedy in his stilted, constipated way. But he will be determined to remain on message in his own ruthless way.

 

[foggy]

If Sunak is still leading (it's possible that he will be deposed, although it would have to be very soon) we can expect many more moments like this;

I'm sure this sort of out of touch arrogance will influence a few floating voters. You have to remember that the person he is speaking to worked in the NHS, I very much doubt that Sunak uses the NHS.
Starmer will also of course provide moments of comedy in his stilted, constipated way. But he will be determined to remain on message in his own ruthless way.

Labour have so far been a little tame in attacking his wealth for fear of being dubbed the politics of envy, but voters have already made their minds up he is out of touch. This clip doesn't help. I think once the campaign starts we will start to get some attacks on his post-election future. Is he going to ditch the UK at the first opportunity and fly in a private jet to go and live in his California mansion and find some easy job in Silicon Valley? The same guy who is asking all of us common people to tighten belts and make difficult decisions for long term future planning? I think we've barely scratched the surface on this stuff and it's in play now that the Tories and Murdoch have started scouring through Starmer's laywer days. I know which attack I think will land better. They are seriously so bad at this it's remarkable.

 

[basilrobbie3]

Also btw sorry I never replied to that DM you sent me, I vaguely remember being busy and aiming to coming back to it but then forgot about it.

You'll never know how crushed I've felt .

You might be right about the Tory core, but history tells us that the incumbent party usually improves during a GE campaign when it starts from behind. Your point about people just not showing up is important as well, I think, and we won't know for certain HOW important it is until the GE actually happens. Again, older voters tend to be more reliable and the extent to which that is cancelled out by angry millennials is hard to be sure about. I think we can all agree on the fact that the Tories have a huge problem though.

One thing I haven't seen much on concerns the section of the electorate that

• usually votes Tory, but
• is both disgusted with them and determined to punish them when the time comes, and
• where they live (marginals or not)

All of which makes me pay particular attention to numbers regarding people who say that they are certain to vote. More angry millennials, possibly.

 

[foggy]

You'll never know how crushed I've felt .

You might be right about the Tory core, but history tells us that the incumbent party usually improves during a GE campaign when it starts from behind.

Yeah I've thought that and certainly a possibility. But they also usually start narrowing the lead in the polls by now but they haven't, it's widening. They also aren't usually in the position of having governed for 14 years. And now add in fury that they are pushing the election late when the people want one now, a tactic that has historically been brutally punished by the electorate.

 

[ElBurroSinNombre]

You'll never know how crushed I've felt .

You might be right about the Tory core, but history tells us that the incumbent party usually improves during a GE campaign when it starts from behind. Your point about people just not showing up is important as well, I think, and we won't know for certain HOW important it is until the GE actually happens. Again, older voters tend to be more reliable and the extent to which that is cancelled out by angry millennials is hard to be sure about. I think we can all agree on the fact that the Tories have a huge problem though.

One thing I haven't seen much on concerns the section of the electorate that

• usually votes Tory, but
• is both disgusted with them and determined to punish them when the time comes, and
• where they live (marginals or not)

All of which makes me pay particular attention to numbers regarding people who say that they are certain to vote. More angry millennials, possibly.

Given the collapse in public services and fall in living standards which affect almost everybody it is going to be difficult for the incumbent. However it is currently very hard to determine the current Tory strategy. Personally, I would suggest that a 'steady as she goes, we have had a hard few years but we are now getting back on our feet and we wouldn't want to let the feckless left damage the economy now, would we?' message would be the best approach for Sunak. However, this approach has a few problems (Liz Truss, self inflicted economic damage through Brexit etc.) but to me is the best chance. Hunt is quite convincing but doesn't have a very high profile as chancellor - he should be a more central figure.

Instead the approach seems to be to try to stoke culture wars, often against institutions that instinctive Tories would normally support - for instance the judiciary, the lifeboat association!, the national trust, the BBC, universities, lawyers etc. I just don't believe that this strategy can work as foggy says above, Conservatism is (should be) about preserving tradition and our institutions. And of course, people care more about their pay packet than the trans debate. And the recent Rwanda policy that Sunak has staked his political life on cannot and will never work. Throw in that Cameron, for all his short comings, looks much more like a PM than the actual PM, the ungovernable nature of the parliamentary party and we have the current shambolic barrel scraping.

We do need an election quite urgently for the sake of the country.

 

[foggy]

Given the collapse in public services and fall in living standards which affect almost everybody it is going to be difficult for the incumbent. However it is currently very hard to determine the current Tory strategy. Personally, I would suggest that a 'steady as she goes, we have had a hard few years but we are now getting back on our feet and we wouldn't want to let the feckless left damage the economy now, would we?' message would be the best approach for Sunak. However, this approach has a few problems (Liz Truss, self inflicted economic damage through Brexit etc.) but to me is the best chance. Hunt is quite convincing but doesn't have a very high profile as chancellor - he should be a more central figure.

Instead the approach seems to be to try to stoke culture wars, often against institutions that instinctive Tories would normally support - for instance the judiciary, the lifeboat association!, the national trust, the BBC, universities, lawyers etc. I just don't believe that this strategy can work as foggy says above, Conservatism is (should be) about preserving tradition and our institutions. And of course, people care more about their pay packet than the trans debate. And the recent Rwanda policy that Sunak has staked his political life on cannot and will never work. Throw in that Cameron, for all his short comings, looks much more like a PM than the actual PM, the ungovernable nature of the parliamentary party and we have the current shambolic barrel scraping.

We do need an election quite urgently for the sake of the country.

Starmer pitched his tent with that speech about the RNLI and National Trust and for the first time I thought oh my god, he gets it. It was the best bit of stategy I've seen from them in a long time. The problem with the Tories advisors seems similar to what Republicans like Ron DeSantis have. They are terminally online. They think the stuff they see in the comments on Twitter is a real reflection of what the agenda should be. It's a dying platform by all metrics yet it continues to be massively overrepresented by politicians, advisors and journalists are still obsessed with it. David Cameron once said Twitter isn't real life, it's even less so now. Political advisors would do well to remember that. Starmer has started cutting through the ridiculousness of culture wars and is getting to what I think is his best message. Yes I'm boring but that's fine, I'm just going to act normal while the Tories eat themselves talking about penises. Now they just need to bring it home with their manifesto and not get spooked by Hunt's financial traps which nobody outside of Westminster actually pays attention to, and on this I have much less confidence in them doing. If they ditch this 28bn climate pledge the flip flopping attacks will ramp up even higher and for good reason. They give their opponents too much credit.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

A major problem is that Conservative party membership isn't a thing amongst younger people. The average age of membership is I believe 81 and these people are generally further to the right than the electorate. Collectively they have made some very bad choices from the leadership candidates.
To get a one nation, centrist unifying figure, they would need to get a different membership. But what reasonable one nation Tory would join a party lead by Farage (for instance) or Braverman?
IMO a more likely scenario is the formation of a new centre right party in the tradition of the old Conservative party whilst the current rump withers further and becomes more like reform.

Unfortunately all political party membership among the young is at a low ebb. The high water mark for the two big parties was in the early post-war years: 1945-1970. A similar pattern is to be found in the USA. Strange really, given that technology has made it easier for people across the world to communicate. Unfortunately, much of that bandwidth is taken up by people shouting at each other.

 

[basilrobbie3]

Given the collapse in public services and fall in living standards which affect almost everybody it is going to be difficult for the incumbent. However it is currently very hard to determine the current Tory strategy. Personally, I would suggest that a 'steady as she goes, we have had a hard few years but we are now getting back on our feet and we wouldn't want to let the feckless left damage the economy now, would we?' message would be the best approach for Sunak. However, this approach has a few problems (Liz Truss, self inflicted economic damage through Brexit etc.) but to me is the best chance. Hunt is quite convincing but doesn't have a very high profile as chancellor - he should be a more central figure.

Instead the approach seems to be to try to stoke culture wars, often against institutions that instinctive Tories would normally support - for instance the judiciary, the lifeboat association!, the national trust, the BBC, universities, lawyers etc. I just don't believe that this strategy can work as foggy says above, Conservatism is (should be) about preserving tradition and our institutions. And of course, people care more about their pay packet than the trans debate. And the recent Rwanda policy that Sunak has staked his political life on cannot and will never work. Throw in that Cameron, for all his short comings, looks much more like a PM than the actual PM, the ungovernable nature of the parliamentary party and we have the current shambolic barrel scraping.

We do need an election quite urgently for the sake of the country.

I think I agree with just about every word of that. The lack of talent and basic empathy in the current Parliamentary Tory Party is bordering on criminal.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Starmer pitched his tent with that speech about the RNLI and National Trust and for the first time I thought oh my god, he gets it. It was the best bit of stategy I've seen from them in a long time. The problem with the Tories advisors seems similar to what Republicans like Ron DeSantis have. They are terminally online. They think the stuff they see in the comments on Twitter is a real reflection of what the agenda should be. It's a dying platform by all metrics yet it continues to be massively overrepresented by politicians, advisors and journalists are still obsessed with it. David Cameron once said Twitter isn't real life, it's even less so now. Political advisors would do well to remember that. Starmer has started cutting through the ridiculousness of culture wars and is getting to what I think is his best message. Yes I'm boring but that's fine, I'm just going to act normal while the Tories eat themselves talking about penises. Now they just need to bring it home with their manifesto and not get spooked by Hunt's financial traps which nobody outside of Westminster actually pays attention to, and on this I have much less confidence in them doing. If they ditch this 28bn climate pledge the flip flopping attacks will ramp up even higher and for good reason. They give their opponents too much credit.

"They are terminally online. They think the stuff they see in the comments on Twitter is a real reflection of what the agenda should be."

Very true and very stupid.

 

[Wizaard]

I'm not sure.
The current riders and runners for the next Conservative Party leader are all extremely right wing;
Braverman, Badenoch or even Farage are all current favorites.
There is no candidate from the one nation wing of the party and even if they did stand they would probably be knocked out pretty early on as Rory Stewart found out last time.
Perhaps Jeremy Hunt would be the stability candidate - however given the demographic of the party membership he wouldn't win (again).

Maybe I dreamt it, but isn't Hunt standing down at the next election?

 

[Wizaard]

This used to pretty fairly reflect the shift in voting but not anymore, polling and voting data shows people are not getting more conservative as they get older, there's a small rise but it's massively decreased. And it makes sense, these days it's not just what we think of as 'young people' who can't afford a house, it's voters who are 35, even 40+. They can't own a home or get an NHS appointment or get a train to work on time reliably, and if they can it's too expensive, and it trickles past rivers full of shit while private owners of the water companies get billions in dividends. At this stage you'd have to be pretty brainless to not think something is wrong with our current ruling class. Whether you think Labour will solve all that is oviously another debate, but most are going to shift to the most viable alternative available.

I personally think a Tory wipeout at the next election is undervalued and I've been banging this drum for 18 months now. If there was an election tomorrow it would be a safe bet for Labour to win by 250 seats. Add in some tactical voting that will occur and the decent possibility that things get even worse and we could easily be looking at the Tories getting fewer than 40 seats with out FPTP system and Labour on 500+. Not saying I'd bet on that, but it's more possible than most realise. As the Tories delay the election it appears things are actually getting worse for them in the polls. On top of that I'm betting it will be a disastrous campaign. Rishi is irritable and doesnt like being questioned and will have some very loud bad moments while he's out campaigning, and their election guru seems to think 'Labour will go back to square one' is a wining message.

With the writing on the wall I've been able to enjoy enjoyed their twice a month resets. Lee Anderson is going to win us the red wall! The 'war on motorists' will bring everyone back! Our leader had a pop at trans people in his conference speech! Muslims will abandon Labour! And then nothing changes in the polls. Still a 20 point Labour lead. Turns out people across all demographics care most about the economy, housing, healthcare and immigration. Everything else is noise and distraction. To borrow a phrase: It's the economy, stupid.

I don't think Labour can take anything for granted. To get an overall majority, it would have to be the biggest swing they've ever had, including the landslide of 1997.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

A Tory wipeout would be great, despite them finally getting round to boundary changes that mean Labour lose 5 and they gain 7 before we start.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

They will regenerate into something more acceptable to the electorate they serve. This latest iteration will be seen as a low water mark and derided by historians...

The evidence would suggest the opposite if the current political and electoral systems are maintained. Minority and extreme voters already have the edge, particularly on the right, as centrist right leaning voters don't seem to have a problem defending and voting for extreme Tories and extreme and often quite stupid Tory policies, Brexit, silly immigration tropes, trickle down economic policies, slashing public services, privatisation, tax cuts for the very rich, etc etc etc. Keeping labour out is a key consideration.

Very left leaning voters do seemingly have an issue with centrist and right leaning Labour candidates and policies, so alternatives to labour will be sought, often splitting the leftist / social / progressive / liberal vote, and with first past the post and a typical 65 to 70% turnout, many MPs are polling at little more than 30% of the electorate.

Rishi Sunak spends more time appealing to the tiny minority of Farage supporters than actually fixing or even considering fixing deep seated problems in the UK. Additionally, the selection process for Tory candidates is often driven by acceptance from the right wing popular press, which in turn are being influenced by the various libertarian, corporatist, ultra privatisation, and other right wing lobby and pressure groups, who are funding campaigns for their favoured candidates and at the same time undermining anything that goes against what they want.

I can only see the Tories lurching further rightwards, fixing 50 plus years of supply side economics policies, privatisation (profitisation) of essential services, declining standards of living for the vast majority, the oncoming social and economic climate driven crisis, means coming up with policies that are fundamentally outside of current political thinking, taxing major corporations and the very wealthy for example, proper policies to solve the problems associated with Brexit, the problems associated with the hyper risks in the financial sector and the markets in general, trying to fix an economy that is majority rentier, when the people the Tories really represent are the big capital owners, the big banks and the big corporations. if you cant fix the actual problems the easiest thing is to turn the conversation / debate / opinion articles in the press (including the BBC) to soundbites about, boats, or blaming europe, or worker lazyness (efficiency), or crime and policing powers, and that specifically requires candidates and a party that is prepared to tow the line that the funding bodies and the press want out there.

In order for Labour to get elected they will have to move rightwards, they will have to embrace more privatisation, increased police powers, take a conservative illiberal stand on "the boats". Its what Blair did, and its what Starmer is doing.

this Tory party is some way distant from hitting rock bottom as the overton window for acceptable levels of bigotry, hypocrisy, incompetence , corruption, self serving-ness just keeps falling year on year, and there is no sign of the stopping.

Its a depressing view i know.

 

[Wizaard]

You'll never know how crushed I've felt .

You might be right about the Tory core, but history tells us that the incumbent party usually improves during a GE campaign when it starts from behind. Your point about people just not showing up is important as well, I think, and we won't know for certain HOW important it is until the GE actually happens. Again, older voters tend to be more reliable and the extent to which that is cancelled out by angry millennials is hard to be sure about. I think we can all agree on the fact that the Tories have a huge problem though.

One thing I haven't seen much on concerns the section of the electorate that

• usually votes Tory, but
• is both disgusted with them and determined to punish them when the time comes, and
• where they live (marginals or not)

All of which makes me pay particular attention to numbers regarding people who say that they are certain to vote. More angry millennials, possibly.

Bear in mind the recent changes around voter ID and the disproportionate impact that has on poorer areas and on the young, which will impact more negatively on the Labour vote.

A pensioner bus pass counts as ID, but a student one doesn't. What's that all about?

 

[foggy]

I don't think Labour can take anything for granted. To get an overall majority, it would have to be the biggest swing they've ever had, including the landslide of 1997.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

A Tory wipeout would be great, despite them finally getting round to boundary changes that mean Labour lose 5 and they gain 7 before we start.

Internally, this should be their attitude. In reality, it is a foregone conclusion. 2019 should not be the baseline. It was a single issue election on Brexit that is a complete outlier. I'm convinced we should really be looking at the wafer thin victories the Conservative achieved in 2010, '15 and '17 as the baseline.

 

[Phil_bfc deux]

Latest polling shows that in the under 50s age group support for left or centre left parties runs at 81%. Conservative support is at 10%. I would guess that this 81% grouping includes Labour, SNP, Green, Lib Dem, Welsh Nationalists etc.

Is the Conservative party literally dying out?
Or will they recover amongst younger people in the future? If so, how will they do this?

its quite ironic that the current Conservative party is probably the most left wing its ever been and labour more right and whilst I dont doubt your figures I think it's a rather lazy generalisation

 

[Shandypants]

You'd think FPTP would put fringe elements in the back seat but of late its seems the opposite with the Tories. They've lurched to the right in the vein hope of shutting up Farage, UKIP etc. Sunak in particular seems politically naive by pandering to them. I can’t fathom his motives for bring PM either, self serving springs to mind.
A wipe out would be good for the country and enable the moderates of the party to purge the likes of Braverman, Francois and 30p Lee.

 

[basilrobbie3]

its quite ironic that the current Conservative party is probably the most left wing its ever been and labour more right

I'm struggling to see how anyone could regard the current Conservative party as left wing. It's home to a bunch of reactionary, bigoted and borderline corrupt inadequates.

The only saving grace they have is that they aren't quite barmy enough to belong in Reform.

In any case, give it ten years and the current labels of "left" and "right" will become increasingly meaningless.

 

[basilexile]

In this 'instant fix to life,' we live in., all the Conservatives have to do is say nothing meaningful and criticise without offering a solution. It seems to have worked for Labour.

 

[Phil_bfc deux]

I'm struggling to see how anyone could regard the current Conservative party as left wing. It's home to a bunch of reactionary, bigoted and borderline corrupt inadequates.

The only saving grace they have is that they aren't quite barmy enough to belong in Reform.

In any case, give it ten years and the current labels of "left" and "right" will become increasingly meaningless.

I agree with your last sentence but not unsurprisingly the rest of it

The political landscape has never been more confused

Millions of Labour voters in Labour strongholds voting Brexit and several of the Tory top table not supporting it

Then we have the current failure of the government to do bugger all on the immigration epidemic and Labour not supporting the unions or the strikes

We have useless 2 tier policing and massive dept ridden local Labour councils

When the Tories wanted to build thousands of new houses Labour didn't support it now Starmer wants to do the exact thing he opposed

it's all fucked

And dont get me started on how badly the Labour Welsh government handled Covid or how much longer the Welsh Labour managed NHS waiting lists are compared to the rest of the UK

Honestly I think there is very little difference between both sets of cnuts at the 2 main political parties

 

[foggy]

I agree with your last sentence but not unsurprisingly the rest of it

The political landscape has never been more confused

Millions of Labour voters in Labour strongholds voting Brexit and several of the Tory top table not supporting it

Then we have the current failure of the government to do bugger all on the immigration epidemic and Labour not supporting the unions or the strikes

We have useless 2 tier policing and massive dept ridden local Labour councils

When the Tories wanted to build thousands of new houses Labour didn't support it now Starmer wants to do the exact thing he opposed

it's all fucked

And dont get me started on how badly the Labour Welsh government handled Covid or how much longer the Welsh Labour managed NHS waiting lists are compared to the rest of the UK

Honestly I think there is very little difference between both sets of cnuts at the 2 main political parties

Little bit of fact checking, councils are going bankrupt across the country led by both parties, their budgets have been cut massively while health and social care costs rise every year. There is no local party trend at play here, it's a national issue affecting everywhere. There is literally a cross party meeting in Westminster today with council leaders, even Tories, raising this issue to government. I remember doing some work on this years ago, some journalists were tying to raise the alarm but the warnings weren't heeded.

As for Brexit I do wonder how long Labour can ignore the majority of people who now realise it was a mistake and want to go back in, especially as older people, for lack of a nicer way of putting it, die off. They are sticking their fingers in their ears a bit because it's a divisive issue, and it's not a big issue for now, but seems inevitable it will be again at some point.

 

[Phil_bfc deux]

Little bit of fact checking, councils are going bankrupt across the country led by both parties, their budgets have been cut massively while health and social care costs rise every year. There is no local party trend at play here, it's a national issue affecting everywhere. There is literally a cross party meeting in Westminster today with council leaders, even Tories, raising this issue to government. I remember doing some work on this years ago, some journalists were tying to raise the alarm but the warnings weren't heeded.

As for Brexit I do wonder how long Labour can ignore the majority of people who now realise it was a mistake and want to go back in, especially as older people, for lack of a nicer way of putting it, die off. They are sticking their fingers in their ears a bit because it's a divisive issue, and it's not a big issue for now, but seems inevitable it will be again at some point.

Yeah that's a fair point about the councils

 

[Chunkylad]

The problem the Tory’s have for any swing voter is I don’t know what successes they can point to?
As an earlier poster said, all public services are an absolute clusterfuck. Roads, trains, healthcare, schools, refuge collection / fly tipping, policing, water, electric, gas etc. Those that are private owned have got away with murder in their neglect so that’s levelled as weak government. Those paid directly by the Govt are so woefully underfunded or poorly ran that you hate having to use them.

So ignoring the fact that a neutral cannot trust them to do anything right in terms of public service you then come to the Tory favourites of immigration and the economy.
Immigration doesn’t even need discussing as no swing voter believes in anything the Tories are doing in that, so finally it’s the economy.

Here Rishi can say “look what I did during Covid”. Then you realise we had eat out to buy, mass fraud of furlough and loans and not to mention Michelle Mone and pub landlords. Not good.
Ok then they’ve got inflation down to 4%. Then you realise Liz Trust and Rishi both created most of that issue with horrific policies. Their amazing inflation busting policy is to annihilate home owners with mortgages and change the tax laws on private landlords who exited stage right whilst rents doubled for the poor.

So as a swing voter, you are saying they’ve done nothing at all well. Even if Starmer is boring and turns out to be hopeless then how much worse could it ever get as Rishi and the team have already destroyed everything?

No neutral or swing voter will vote for this lot.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

I agree with your last sentence but not unsurprisingly the rest of it

The political landscape has never been more confused

Millions of Labour voters in Labour strongholds voting Brexit and several of the Tory top table not supporting it

Then we have the current failure of the government to do bugger all on the immigration epidemic and Labour not supporting the unions or the strikes

We have useless 2 tier policing and massive dept ridden local Labour councils

When the Tories wanted to build thousands of new houses Labour didn't support it now Starmer wants to do the exact thing he opposed

it's all fucked

And dont get me started on how badly the Labour Welsh government handled Covid or how much longer the Welsh Labour managed NHS waiting lists are compared to the rest of the UK

Honestly I think there is very little difference between both sets of cnuts at the 2 main political parties

I actually thought your first post was a joke post just trying to be argumentative, but you raise something interesting. The current Tories are the party of elitists, socially and economically and literally create policies that only benefit the top 5%, and have no qualms about stating that. When you have individuals of eastern extraction and history in very high office who are advocating racism then there is definitely something truly fubar.

Tories want to build thousands of homes but those thousands of homes were / are unlikely to be for ordinary working people, and highly unlikely to be in the price range for those on regular wages / salaries to be able to afford, without multi generational mortgages spread over 30 or even 40 years. They would in the main end up in the private rental sector at rents that most people couldn't afford.

As you and others have said there difference between labour and tory in terms of their basic capabilities, corruption and pandering to the City, big corporates and the very rich. Corbyn was probably an alternative, but without media support and his own party constantly plotting against him he never stood a chance, not that i think he would have been a good PM, but I'm not convinced he would have been as bad as Cameron, Johnson, May, Truss, or Sunak, just a less bad alternative.

Left and right already means nothing, there is authoritarianist points of view, left and right, there are individualist (selfish thatcherite thinking) points of view, left and right, there are views around low tax, corporate largesse, de-regulation, increased police powers, and it doesnt matter if its a labour or tory talking about it the messages are almost identical.

Even the brexit supporting businesses are screaming that they need higher immigration, there never was an immigration epidemic its purely a tory media talking point to take peoples eyes off of the current dire situation, and the various scandals they are directly involved in.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

The problem the Tory’s have for any swing voter is I don’t know what successes they can point to?
As an earlier poster said, all public services are an absolute clusterfuck. Roads, trains, healthcare, schools, refuge collection / fly tipping, policing, water, electric, gas etc. Those that are private owned have got away with murder in their neglect so that’s levelled as weak government. Those paid directly by the Govt are so woefully underfunded or poorly ran that you hate having to use them.

So ignoring the fact that a neutral cannot trust them to do anything right in terms of public service you then come to the Tory favourites of immigration and the economy.
Immigration doesn’t even need discussing as no swing voter believes in anything the Tories are doing in that, so finally it’s the economy.

Here Rishi can say “look what I did during Covid”. Then you realise we had eat out to buy, mass fraud of furlough and loans and not to mention Michelle Mone and pub landlords. Not good.
Ok then they’ve got inflation down to 4%. Then you realise Liz Trust and Rishi both created most of that issue with horrific policies. Their amazing inflation busting policy is to annihilate home owners with mortgages and change the tax laws on private landlords who exited stage right whilst rents doubled for the poor.

So as a swing voter, you are saying they’ve done nothing at all well. Even if Starmer is boring and turns out to be hopeless then how much worse could it ever get as Rishi and the team have already destroyed everything?

No neutral or swing voter will vote for this lot.

the more likely point of view is people dont vote, because the options are a libertarian elitist useless cnut who has demonstrated his uselessness or a potentially useless elitist institutionalist cnut. Not voting is likely to see Starmer lose more heavily than Wishy washy Rishi.

Oh for the days of John Major being a bit boring

 

[Matesrates]

The young always mainly lean left, they form principles at university where many lecturers are left thinking. That gradually filters out with many as they start to earn and encounter the new world.

As for the next GE, it’s a given that labour will win, nothing to do with labour being better, or the tories being worse, it’s a function of time, 13 years almost always brings a change.

 

[foggy]

The young always mainly lean left, they form principles at university where many lecturers are left thinking. That gradually filters out with many as they start to earn and encounter the new world.

As for the next GE, it’s a given that labour will win, nothing to do with labour being better, or the tories being worse, it’s a function of time, 13 years almost always brings a change.

How many young people do you think were going to university in the 60s and 70s? As for the current day, the old thinking that people will get more conservative as they get older is no longer true. That is not happening at all.

 

[Tangerinemoss]

The young always mainly lean left, they form principles at university where many lecturers are left thinking. That gradually filters out with many as they start to earn and encounter the new world.

I don't think that applies any longer. That was based on many being successful, and, like our generation, buying a flat in early twenties, and thinking them selves capitalist members of the system. Nowadays, many are in their mid thirties, or simply never can, before buy anything, laden with student debt and interest rates high on house prices many times salary. They understand that the current economy is not working for them, and, being social media savvy, see where the money has gone.

 

[Phil_bfc deux]

I actually thought your first post was a joke post just trying to be argumentative, but you raise something interesting. The current Tories are the party of elitists, socially and economically and literally create policies that only benefit the top 5%, and have no qualms about stating that. When you have individuals of eastern extraction and history in very high office who are advocating racism then there is definitely something truly fubar.

Tories want to build thousands of homes but those thousands of homes were / are unlikely to be for ordinary working people, and highly unlikely to be in the price range for those on regular wages / salaries to be able to afford, without multi generational mortgages spread over 30 or even 40 years. They would in the main end up in the private rental sector at rents that most people couldn't afford.

As you and others have said there difference between labour and tory in terms of their basic capabilities, corruption and pandering to the City, big corporates and the very rich. Corbyn was probably an alternative, but without media support and his own party constantly plotting against him he never stood a chance, not that i think he would have been a good PM, but I'm not convinced he would have been as bad as Cameron, Johnson, May, Truss, or Sunak, just a less bad alternative.

Left and right already means nothing, there is authoritarianist points of view, left and right, there are individualist (selfish thatcherite thinking) points of view, left and right, there are views around low tax, corporate largesse, de-regulation, increased police powers, and it doesnt matter if its a labour or tory talking about it the messages are almost identical.

Even the brexit supporting businesses are screaming that they need higher immigration, there never was an immigration epidemic its purely a tory media talking point to take peoples eyes off of the current dire situation, and the various scandals they are directly involved in.

"When you have individuals of eastern extraction and history in very high office who are advocating racism then there is definitely something truly fubar"

That looks a bit racist to me using someone's ethnic background to try and make a point

Strange post

 

[Matesrates]

I read that Brits living abroad for more than 15 years can now vote. I just don’t see why, if they’ve chosen to live in another country, why should they be able to influence voting in this country.

 

[Phil_bfc deux]

I don't think that applies any longer. That was based on many being successful, and, like our generation, buying a flat in early twenties, and thinking them selves capitalist members of the system. Nowadays, many are in their mid thirties, or simply never can, before buy anything, laden with student debt and interest rates high on house prices many times salary. They understand that the current economy is not working for them, and, being social media savvy, see where the money has gone.

Left wing propaganda from social media outlets along with schools, colleges and universities has also meant more young people drift to the far left

You only have to look at that idiot Corbyn at Glastonbury a few years ago to see where I'm coming from

 

[Tangerinemoss]

Left wing propaganda?? Social media is full of right wing conspiracy theorists, massively paid for by Bannan, Murdoch, Tufton Street, Putin.

 

[bill40]

Yes the Tory party is literally dying (thank God) but swe have no opposition to speak of. This is how I thought Capitalism worked, you fix problems from the bottom up. Take housing, it works fine from the middle up but the bottom is broken, we desperately need more affordable homes. This is basic economics, if people are paying more money to a parasic rentier class then they aren't spending that money into local economies. Underfund the NHS and have record waiting lists people get ill and fall out of the economy, this is bog standard econ 101 stuff.

The Tories believe in making a few people mega rich and because those people own the politicians Labou have followed suit we are falling into feudalism at the same rate as America and it won't end well. PS. Starmer is a bell end too.

 

[bill40]

Left wing propaganda from social media outlets along with schools, colleges and universities has also meant more young people drift to the far left

You only have to look at that idiot Corbyn at Glastonbury a few years ago to see where I'm coming from

Glastonbury isn't social media which has never been more right wing. X more right wing FB full of right wing reactionary pillocks. What social media are you reading?

 

[Wizaard]

The problem the Tory’s have for any swing voter is I don’t know what successes they can point to?
As an earlier poster said, all public services are an absolute clusterfuck. Roads, trains, healthcare, schools, refuge collection / fly tipping, policing, water, electric, gas etc. Those that are private owned have got away with murder in their neglect so that’s levelled as weak government. Those paid directly by the Govt are so woefully underfunded or poorly ran that you hate having to use them.

So ignoring the fact that a neutral cannot trust them to do anything right in terms of public service you then come to the Tory favourites of immigration and the economy.
Immigration doesn’t even need discussing as no swing voter believes in anything the Tories are doing in that, so finally it’s the economy.

Here Rishi can say “look what I did during Covid”. Then you realise we had eat out to buy, mass fraud of furlough and loans and not to mention Michelle Mone and pub landlords. Not good.
Ok then they’ve got inflation down to 4%. Then you realise Liz Trust and Rishi both created most of that issue with horrific policies. Their amazing inflation busting policy is to annihilate home owners with mortgages and change the tax laws on private landlords who exited stage right whilst rents doubled for the poor.

So as a swing voter, you are saying they’ve done nothing at all well. Even if Starmer is boring and turns out to be hopeless then how much worse could it ever get as Rishi and the team have already destroyed everything?

No neutral or swing voter will vote for this lot.

I've been asking for a while. What have the Tories actually achieved that has benefitted us in the last 14 years? I cant think one policy that has worked.

Feel free to outline all those benefits.

 

[Phil_bfc deux]

I've been asking for a while. What have the Tories actually achieved that has benefitted us in the last 14 years? I cant think one policy that has worked.

Feel free to outline all those benefits.

Have they taken us into a full blown war killing millions based on lies?

 

[bill40]

The benefits are record breaking, record national debt, record local authority debt, record NHS waiting lists, record immigration highs, record food bank use, record waiting times for a GP, record lack of NHS dentists, the trouble with people like you is you just don't understand how good you have it.

 

[ElBurroSinNombre]

Have they taken us into a full blown war killing millions based on lies?

Why are the Conservatives (seemingly) so unpopular with under 50s? That is what this thread is about, not the misjudged Iraq intervention. You can start a thread on that if you wanted although I completely agree that the billions squandered on that would have been far better spent on say social housing.
In the poll that I quoted, Labour are getting 60% support from under 50 year olds. That to me is astonishing, how has this happened and what can the Conservatives do about it?

 

[bill40]

Have they taken us into a full blown war killing millions based on lies?

They're taking us there as we speak.