What I'm saying is that we can work out the numbers who are likely to die under the various approaches.
- With a lockdown at 50 the death toll is roughly 7,500 or 25,000 if we allow for some cross-over into older age groups;
- with a lockdown at 60 the death toll is likely between 25,000 - 40,000 (again depending upon how effective the lockdown is);
- with a lockdown at 70 the death toll is likely between 75,000 - 85,000;
with no lockdown whatsoever (or circuit breakers) the death toll is probably somewhere around 150,000.
I'm not saying that lockdown at 50, or 60 is a perfect approach, but ultimately we're talking about what is the best approach, how to minimise lives lost and the impact on the economy, and if we could effectively lock down the over 50s and let the virus burn itself out among the least vulnerable population we might get through this in 4 - 6 weeks, maybe the start of December if we went now (although I think we'd need two or 3 weeks lead time to allow people to prepare).