Local Elections

Jaffa_The_Hut

Jaffa_The_Hut

Well-known member
I know we’re not voting on the Fylde coast but what’s everyone forecast for the early hours?
Party gate v Beer gate who will the people vote for?
Surely the way things have gone for Boris the criminal lately it’s going to be a landslide for Starmer?
Or will the people still back Boris for his solid support of Ukraine?
In my opinion if Labour don’t make significant gains against the Tories then Starmer might as well Jack in.
 
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According to BBC news site, Labour are 1-0 up (Starmer, 83 minutes) but, try as I might, I couldn’t find any info beyond the 1-0 score line. An uncontested vote, perhaps 🤔 - or just evidence of BBC bias writ large 🙃
 
Election night special just started on bbc 1. I loved the metaphor of one of the opening images, i.e. Boris dragging an out of control dog to a place that it clearly didn’t want to go to. What a fraud that guy is ….. and that’s only Dylan
 
I would imagine the Cons will replace Johnson before the next election when the timing is right and then you can all vote for a new shiny suit with the same lying sack of corrupt shit inside it or Starmer and his complete lack of ability to have any point of view on anything in case it upsets the electorate.

Ah, democracy!
 
I just learnt a new word whilst listening to Oliver Dowden just now

’to resile’ - to abandon a position or a course of action

As for Boris, cnut, I already knew
 
Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet, 3 massive gains for Labour in London but further north only modest gains so far.
Still lots of results to come in later today.
 
Boris will be happy with the outcome, Starmer absolutely powder puff, crap apart from London and whilst Ed Davey is dynamic and charismatic 😀they’re even worse. Onwards and upwards
 
If my maths is correct, in 75 councils declared so far, Labour have seen a 3% increase in no of councillors whilst Tories have seen an 18% decrease
 
The Tories briefed the media yesterday that they were expecting to lose 500+ so that when it is actually lower they can claim it as some form of win; classic spin. Starmer has work to do but Johnson will do a Trump and will have to be dragged out of No 10 shouting and screaming. Great news for SF in Northern Ireland if the rumours are true.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
In the largely urban councils Labour already held most seats, hence the relatively small percentage increase.
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In some, only a third of the seats were in play and turnout is around 25%. Not sure just how much any party can take out of this except in London, where the Conservatives have been pasted.
On a separate note, Labour has lost the odd seat to the Tories in parts of the north, but on the whole, it's been the Greens that have took them.
 
southshorepool said:
In some, only a third of the seats were in play and turnout is around 25%. Not sure just how much any party can take out of this except in London, where the Conservatives have been pasted.
On a separate note, Labour has lost the odd seat to the Tories in parts of the north, but on the whole, it's been the Greens that have took them.
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Bit of a Lib Dem revival. You can see another coalition at the next Gen election ousting the Tories.
 
Great night for the Tories, except in London. Labour have no chance of winning the next General Election.
 
Local elections where the majority of people don't vote for anything er local.
It's a X next to a blue or red flag and if they can't see it in themselves to support their normal party they tick the yellow flag box.
 
Where London leads, the rest of the country follows.

The electorate in London have had much longer to see through Johnson with his time as Mayor.

When the Brexit bigots in the midlands and the north finally have to admit that it's been a complete balls-up, and own up that they are the ones who got it so wrong, the Tories will be licking their wounds for years to come.
 
Ollygon said:
Where London leads, the rest of the country follows.

The electorate in London have had much longer to see through Johnson with his time as Mayor.

When the Brexit bigots in the midlands and the north finally have to admit that it's been a complete balls-up, and own up that they are the ones who got it so wrong, the Tories will be licking their wounds for years to come.
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They'll never admit they were wrong. Something else is always to blame.
 
Sussex said:
Great night for the Tories, except in London. Labour have no chance of winning the next General Election.
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With 191/200 councils declared the ups and downs are:

Labour +238
Lib Dem +186
Green +81
SNP +62
PC -2
Others -233
Tories -386

Which all goes to show what we guessed was always the case - that AVFTT RWNJs talk bollocks.
 
Wizaard said:
Bit of a Lib Dem revival. You can see another coalition at the next Gen election ousting the Tories.
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Lib Dem's role is predominantly related to local government and in a wider sense their backing is just a protest vote. The party has nothing to offer in the context of governing the country and Ed Davey would never ever be accepted as a PM. That doesn't mean there couldn't be a pact with Labour though.
 
The media has become obsessed with the "red wall" because they saw the sexy 2016 US election coverage about rust belts and red walls and wanted to copy some terminology. They're obsessed so much with it they are missing the real story which is this was a disastrous night for the Tories and they have a VERY narrow chance of being our next government. All signs are pointing towards a Labour led coalition or confidence and supply, to the point that you should get pretty long odds on anything else right now.
 
foggy said:
The media has become obsessed with the "red wall" because they saw the sexy 2016 US election coverage about rust belts and red walls and wanted to copy some terminology. They're obsessed so much with it they are missing the real story which is this was a disastrous night for the Tories and they have a VERY narrow chance of being our next government. All signs are pointing towards a Labour led coalition or confidence and supply, to the point that you should get pretty long odds on anything else right now.
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What, confidence and supply with the DUP? I think that ship has sailed. Good post otherwise.
 
People can daydream as much as they want but Boris will win the election again so you may as well get used to it. No opposition as you all know. Local elections mean nothing as proved by the greens winning loads of seats. Starmer will be gone once he gets his FPN as we don’t want hypocrisy in high office do we. Boris has charisma and is a serial election winner, he won the mayoral election twice in supposedly red London.
 
Memphisboy said:
People can daydream as much as they want but Boris will win the election again so you may as well get used to it. No opposition as you all know. Local elections mean nothing as proved by the greens winning loads of seats. Starmer will be gone once he gets his FPN as we don’t want hypocrisy in high office do we. Boris has charisma and is a serial election winner, he won the mayoral election twice in supposedly red London.
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You've misspelt chlamydia as charisma
 
Labour must be disappointed at only reaching similar levels to what they achieved under Corbyn. There's talk of Starmer having to resign if he gets a FPN and then the whole Left/Centre thing will start again and there just isn't time to go through all of that before the next election.

Labour also securing London while not making headway in the (real) country just reinforces that they are now the party of the affluent middle-class which must be worrying for them as that doesn't win elections - they will need a strong Midlands and Northern return at the General Election as they can't rely on the South-East outside of the capital.

For the Tories, it's a wake-up call but it's an expected wake-up call and it looks like they just about got away with it. Most of the Labour gains were from NOC and winning Harrow from Labour negates one of the so-called 'symbolic' London councils although what's symbolic about Barnet I have no idea.

Finally, it looks like the nationalist parties - Sinn Fein, SNP and Plaid Cymru - made gains which says to me these parties have a core 'shock troops' of voters who will always vote for them even if you dangle their cat over a canal. Those who are willing to change their vote - Tory to LibDem, Labour to Green - need to be wary of these people. They're the true nutters of British politics, not those voting for mainstream parties.
 
Memphisboy said:
People can daydream as much as they want but Boris will win the election again so you may as well get used to it. No opposition as you all know. Local elections mean nothing as proved by the greens winning loads of seats. Starmer will be gone once he gets his FPN as we don’t want hypocrisy in high office do we. Boris has charisma and is a serial election winner, he won the mayoral election twice in supposedly red London.
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Tony Blair was also popular once.
 
Kip said:
Labour must be disappointed at only reaching similar levels to what they achieved under Corbyn. There's talk of Starmer having to resign if he gets a FPN and then the whole Left/Centre thing will start again and there just isn't time to go through all of that before the next election.

Labour also securing London while not making headway in the (real) country just reinforces that they are now the party of the affluent middle-class which must be worrying for them as that doesn't win elections - they will need a strong Midlands and Northern return at the General Election as they can't rely on the South-East outside of the capital.

For the Tories, it's a wake-up call but it's an expected wake-up call and it looks like they just about got away with it. Most of the Labour gains were from NOC and winning Harrow from Labour negates one of the so-called 'symbolic' London councils although what's symbolic about Barnet I have no idea.

Finally, it looks like the nationalist parties - Sinn Fein, SNP and Plaid Cymru - made gains which says to me these parties have a core 'shock troops' of voters who will always vote for them even if you dangle their cat over a canal. Those who are willing to change their vote - Tory to LibDem, Labour to Green - need to be wary of these people. They're the true nutters of British politics, not those voting for mainstream parties.
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London is as real as Lancashire or Yorkshire. It's got more MPs than Scotland. And I think I need a citation that the affluent middle class don't win elections.
 
foggy said:
Tony Blair was also popular once.
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Tony Blair won 1800 council seats before coming PM Starmer isn't even close add on no Labour government has ever got to power without at least 40 seats from Scotland (ain't happening) going to be difficult for them to win power.
 
foggy said:
London is as real as Lancashire or Yorkshire. It's got more MPs than Scotland. And I think I need a citation that the affluent middle class don't win elections.
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Geographically, London is a real place. Culturally, it's the least 'real' place in the United Kingdom. The idea that the rest of the country takes it's lead from London has long gone.

As for the second point, perhaps I should have said the affluent middle-class don't win elections for Labour.
 
Kip said:
Geographically, London is a real place. Culturally, it's the least 'real' place in the United Kingdom. The idea that the rest of the country takes it's lead from London has long gone.

As for the second point, perhaps I should have said the affluent middle-class don't win elections for Labour.
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They do if they start voting for Labour as they are doing.

The idea that any one city or area is more "real" than another is silly. All seats count the same. Conservatives being wiped out in London is a problem.
 
poolseasider said:
Tony Blair won 1800 council seats before coming PM Starmer isn't even close add on no Labour government has ever got to power without at least 40 seats from Scotland (ain't happening) going to be difficult for them to win power.
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That wasn't my point. But since we're on the subject, why is the biggest Labour victory for the last 80 years the bar here? Is that always the standard we hold for opposition parties? Labour doesn't need a landslide victory like Blair got. They could win 130 fewer seats than he did and still lead the nest government.
 
Memphisboy said:
People can daydream as much as they want but Boris will win the election again so you may as well get used to it. No opposition as you all know. Local elections mean nothing as proved by the greens winning loads of seats. Starmer will be gone once he gets his FPN as we don’t want hypocrisy in high office do we. Boris has charisma and is a serial election winner, he won the mayoral election twice in supposedly red London.
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Too try-hard Memphis.
 
foggy said:
That wasn't my point. But since we're on the subject, why is the biggest Labour victory for the last 80 years the bar here? Is that always the standard we hold for opposition parties? Labour doesn't need a landslide victory like Blair got. They could win 130 fewer seats than he did and still lead the nest government.
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I think there will be increasingly incidents of coalition Governments. It wouldn't surprise me if 2024 were a Lib-Lab Govt. Don't forget that 2019 was the first time since 1992 that the Tories had a real workable majority. 2010 was a coalition, 2015 was a majority of 12, that was lost in 2017 when a grubby deal was struck with the DUP. All of the the from 2010 onwards there had been a significant SNP majority in Scotland. So, don't think it's just a Labour problem, not being able to call on Scottish seats.
 
foggy said:
That wasn't my point. But since we're on the subject, why is the biggest Labour victory for the last 80 years the bar here? Is that always the standard we hold for opposition parties? Labour doesn't need a landslide victory like Blair got. They could win 130 fewer seats than he did and still lead the nest government.
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These local election results are nowhere near good enough for Labour to win power but it's a good start I actually thought they'd do a lot better!
So you can look back at TB results and try and compare.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I think there will be increasingly incidents of coalition Governments. It wouldn't surprise me if 2024 were a Lib-Lab Govt. Don't forget that 2019 was the first time since 1992 that the Tories had a real workable majority. 2010 was a coalition, 2015 was a majority of 12, that was lost in 2017 when a grubby deal was struck with the DUP. All of the the from 2010 onwards there had been a significant SNP majority in Scotland. So, don't think it's just a Labour problem, not being able to call on Scottish seats.
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Would rather we just got on with PR for the one hundredth millionth time bloody hate our two party first past the post system.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I think there will be increasingly incidents of coalition Governments. It wouldn't surprise me if 2024 were a Lib-Lab Govt. Don't forget that 2019 was the first time since 1992 that the Tories had a real workable majority. 2010 was a coalition, 2015 was a majority of 12, that was lost in 2017 when a grubby deal was struck with the DUP. All of the the from 2010 onwards there had been a significant SNP majority in Scotland. So, don't think it's just a Labour problem, not being able to call on Scottish seats.
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100%. Scotland is entirely SNP and you can't take away a 10th of the electorate - more with NI - and expect majority governments. Our system encourages coalitions and more people including inside Labour HQ should cotton on to that fact. I have no problem with it. Couldn't even a decently well run Labour win every election with SNP? They probably vote together on 90% of issues that aren't on independence anyway.
 
poolseasider said:
These local election results are nowhere near good enough for Labour to win power but it's a good start I actually thought they'd do a lot better!
So you can look back at TB results and try and compare.
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They actually are. All the data is showing Labour to be the largest party in Westminster.
 
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