London in tier 2

GJJW

GJJW

Well-known member
So figures much worse in London than Lancs and many other areas in tier 3, yet they are placed in tier 2.
I was under the impression this was done to protect the NHS and the vulnerable? I no longer believe this.
 
GJJW said:
So figures much worse in London than Lancs and many other areas in tier 3, yet they are placed in tier 2.
I was under the impression this was done to protect the NHS and the vulnerable? I no longer believe this.
Click to expand...

I've already told you this is not true, and posting R numbers does not change that.

Full reasons for London:

"The trajectory of key indicators of Covid-19 in an area (including all age case rates, over 60s case rates and positivity) have been increasing until very recently. The situation in London is not uniform throughout the city. 13 of the 33 boroughs have case rates which are 10% or more higher than a week ago and ten boroughs where case rates for over 60s are above 150 per 100,000. Hospital admissions continue to increase in the East and North London in particular, although they are still well below the spring peak. Taken as a whole, the situation in London has stabilised at a similar case rate and positivity to other parts of the country in Tier 2".

My emphasis.
 
GJJW said:
So figures much worse in London than Lancs and many other areas in tier 3, yet they are placed in tier 2.
I was under the impression this was done to protect the NHS and the vulnerable? I no longer believe this.
Click to expand...

It depends on where in London you mean. I only checked the SE London Boroughs around where I live ; most of them have rates miles below that in Blackpool. Only Greenwich comes close.
 
With the rates in Newham, Tower Hamlets , Ealing etc - this is a complete joke !! Its takes minutes on the tube to go from these boroughs into central London , whereas we are suffering due to high rates in East Lancashire , which is some 40 minutes travel distance away .
Talk about levelling up ? that is one hell of a set of scales they use !!!
 
LS please can you get the Mayor of London to take some boroughs in like Hyndburn, Darwen, Rossendale, Pendle, Burnley, Blackburn and Preston so the rest of Lancs can be placed in Tier 1 🤣🤣
 
Lost Seasider said:
I've already told you this is not true, and posting R numbers does not change that.

Full reasons for London:

"The trajectory of key indicators of Covid-19 in an area (including all age case rates, over 60s case rates and positivity) have been increasing until very recently. The situation in London is not uniform throughout the city. 13 of the 33 boroughs have case rates which are 10% or more higher than a week ago and ten boroughs where case rates for over 60s are above 150 per 100,000. Hospital admissions continue to increase in the East and North London in particular, although they are still well below the spring peak. Taken as a whole, the situation in London has stabilised at a similar case rate and positivity to other parts of the country in Tier 2".

My emphasis.
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Because r numbers and growth rates dont suit your argument!
 
Lost Seasider said:
I've already told you this is not true, and posting R numbers does not change that.

Full reasons for London:

"The trajectory of key indicators of Covid-19 in an area (including all age case rates, over 60s case rates and positivity) have been increasing until very recently. The situation in London is not uniform throughout the city. 13 of the 33 boroughs have case rates which are 10% or more higher than a week ago and ten boroughs where case rates for over 60s are above 150 per 100,000. Hospital admissions continue to increase in the East and North London in particular, although they are still well below the spring peak. Taken as a whole, the situation in London has stabilised at a similar case rate and positivity to other parts of the country in Tier 2".

My emphasis.
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A criteria that could be applied to many Tier 3 areas, Lancashire included.
 
GJJW said:
Blackpool not in Lancs pal. Im in Wyre.
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Most of Lancashire is far worse than London though, isn't it?

I'm not trying to make any particular point, other than that large swathes of London generally are below average.
 
basilrobbie said:
Most of Lancashire is far worse than London though, isn't it?

I'm not trying to make any particular point, other than that large swathes of London generally are below average.
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Maybe in actually case numbers but not in growth rates or r numbers. A lot can be put at the door of East Lancs sadly. Lancs is coming down apart from Hyndburn.
 
basilrobbie said:
Most of Lancashire is far worse than London though, isn't it?

I'm not trying to make any particular point, other than that large swathes of London generally are below average.
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No, it's not, the R number is decreasing in larger areas of Lancashire than London.

It's economic Bazzle, you know it is, fuck the North.

The Tier system is fundamentally flawed and the usual committee/politics based decision. Either lock down or don't, this stupid compromise solves nothing.
 
They are just making it up to suit.

Anyway, I’m sick of hearing about lockdown this, tier that.
What about a coherent plan of action to get the country back on a normal track?
 
I don't buy into these conspiracy theories- that London gets special treatment.
Tier 3 in Blackpool is probably right given it's location if nothing else.
Review in 2 weeks, lets see where the numbers are then.
 
Lost Seasider said:
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases

Case numbers/100,000:

London: 182
Lancs: 248.3
Fylde: 238.9

Only Wyre and Lancaster could make a case for T2 but they're hardly unique in being lumped in with a larger geographic area.
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Latest by NHS England regions​

These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions.

RegionRGrowth rate % per day
England1.0-1.10 to +2
East of England1.0-1.3+1 to +4
London1.0-1.20 to +3
Midlands1.0-1.2+1 to +3
North East and Yorkshire1.0-1.10 to +2
North West0.8-1.0-3 to 0
South East1.1-1.3+1 to +4
South West1.0-1.3+1 to +4

Going up in London. Growth rate and r rate higher than Niorth West.
Lockdown supposed go stop growth rate. So put a region where the growth rate is going up in the lower tier and a region where it is going down in the upper one.
 
GJJW said:
Going up in London. Growth rate and r rate higher than Niorth West.
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Out of date information? London actually went down in w/e 20/11, not as much as Lancs but from a lower starting point.


GJJW said:
Lockdown supposed go stop growth rate. So put a region where the growth rate is going up in the lower tier and a region where it is going down in the upper one.
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Both are going down, but one has 182 cases/100,000 and the other has 250.

There's also the point that because of the far higher case numbers in previous weeks there's much more pressure on the NHS and thus far lower room for maneouver.
.
 
Professional said:
And 'large swathes' of Lancashire are generally below average , some boroughs in London are higher !! And minutes away on the tube
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And passenger numbers on Tubes and trains have fallen through the floor in London and the South East. The only significant pressures are on buses, and even they are much quieter than normal. Central London is so much of a ghost town that a large proportion of the cab fleet is parked up in fields.

I'm not saying that this allocation of tiers is perfect or that there aren't anomalies. There are. But there isn't a homogenous picture in London anymore than there is in Lancashire, and no amount of frothing about it will change the facts.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Out of date information? London actually went down in w/e 20/11, not as much as Lancs but from a lower starting point.




Both are going down, but one has 182 cases/100,000 and the other has 250.

There's also the point that because of the far higher case numbers in previous weeks there's much more pressure on the NHS and thus far lower room for maneouver.
.
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The out of date info as you say is from the official Government data site. States 20th November.
www.gov.uk

The R value and growth rate

The latest reproduction number (R) and growth rate of coronavirus (COVID-19).
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
Latest update from Blackpool Vic states massive improvement.
Of course, its East Lancs bringing us down but London has boroughs doing the same.
 
Wizaard said:
Why are London boroughs classified separately, but vast swathes of the North lumped together? London-centric view of the world perhaps.
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They are administrative regions. And the population in most (not the City of London) is around a third of a million.
 
basilrobbie said:
And passenger numbers on Tubes and trains have fallen through the floor in London and the South East. The only significant pressures are on buses, and even they are much quieter than normal. Central London is so much of a ghost town that a large proportion of the cab fleet is parked up in fields.

I'm not saying that this allocation of tiers is perfect or that there aren't anomalies. There are. But there isn't a homogenous picture in London anymore than there is in Lancashire, and no amount of frothing about it will change the facts.
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Not totally true Basil. More people are using the underground compared to the first lockdown. I got caught in a mini rush hour yesterday at 5.45. The train I was on was around 2/3rds full. The difference now.. its much harder to find a passenger without a mask.
 
It's not 'frothing' Bazzle, it's concern that a region with a rising infection rate isn't subjected to the restrictions it should because of politics and the economy. No amount of buggering around with R numbers for this borough against that borough can hide the fact that keeping London in Tier 2 goes against the whole lockdown system and is implicitly risky.

So like I said, either lock it all down or don't, this solves nothing.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Published 20th, presumably based on data to the 13th, as I've said elsewhere cases actually fell in London w/e 20th.
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So London is publishing data off it's own back, and out of sync with the official Government r rate site?
That's helpful.
I'd hazard a guess that the rvrate and growth rate us still higher in London than the North West mind.
 
Dark_Side_of_the_Lune said:
It does mean we can go to the ballet though
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It's about time you lot tried to close the culture gap. 😀

Kurios

if you catch Tube during rush hour, of course it is going to be at its busiest. I'd say two thirds full at quarter to six is pretty much unheard of, in normal times.

I catch the train into London Bridge once a week. Two thirds empty on the way in, 95% empty on the way back.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Which region would that be, because rates are falling in London overall.
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According to the Mayor of London's office the infection rate for London as a whole is 187 cases per 100,000 population - this is based on data from November 13 to November 19.

A drop of three from the previous week.

Some areas are 300+ though.
 
It is not just about the overall level of infections and infection rates but also the data for for higher risk groups. Here in Lincolnshire my district council area (and 4 other districts) is below the average but two of our districts have had a big increase in over 60s infections and hospitalisations. That has pulled the whole of Lincolnshire into Tier 3 when we were Tier 1 before lockdown. The main advantage of Tier 3 is that you can get access to mass community testing to help drive down the numbers
 
Looking closer to home:

Tier 2
Liverpool (Total cases 868: Rolling Rate 174.3)
Knowsley (Total cases 253: Rolling Rate 167.7)
Formby (Total cases 443: Rolling Rate 159.9)

Tier 3
Wyre (Total cases 163: Rolling Rate 145.4)
Lancaster (Total cases 160: Rolling Rate 109.6)

All with reducing growth rates.

According to Steve Rotheram (Liverpool's Metro Mayor): "Everyone here bought into the idea of sticking together, adjusting behaviours and recognising that sticking to the restrictions would make them a temporary thing. Today has been a total vindication of our approach."

Does beg the question "What have Wyre and Lancaster residents been doing wrong?" 🤔
 
Normoss_Rambler said:
Looking closer to home:

Tier 2
Liverpool (Total cases 868: Rolling Rate 174.3)
Knowsley (Total cases 253: Rolling Rate 167.7)
Formby (Total cases 443: Rolling Rate 159.9)

Tier 3
Wyre (Total cases 163: Rolling Rate 145.4)
Lancaster (Total cases 160: Rolling Rate 109.6)

All with reducing growth rates.

According to Steve Rotheram (Liverpool's Metro Mayor): "Everyone here bought into the idea of sticking together, adjusting behaviours and recognising that sticking to the restrictions would make them a temporary thing. Today has been a total vindication of our approach."

Does beg the question "What have Wyre and Lancaster residents been doing wrong?" 🤔
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It's blatantly political. Smoke blown up Liverpool's arse following the army going in - even though the city (on the whole) stuck two fingers up to mass testing. Manchester on the naughty step for daring to push against the narrative. It's as plain as day yet some still can not or will not see.
 
rockontommy said:
It's blatantly political. Smoke blown up Liverpool's arse following the army going in - even though the city (on the whole) stuck two fingers up to mass testing. Manchester on the naughty step for daring to push against the narrative. It's as plain as day yet some still can not or will not see.
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Exactly, it’s only two or three weeks since were get fed the crap that the bodies were piling up in Liverpool hospitals and the city was on the fringe of disaster 😯 now low and behold a couple of weeks later it’s all fine and dandy, yet we’re gonna be stuck in this fir months😠
 
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