Narrowing the odds

Maths

Maths

Well-known member
10 games to go and I think we are of all the assumption that we need 7/10 wins.
It effectively means we can lose 3 games or lose a game and draw 3 but win the rest.
Pompey are top and Northampton are no mugs and so come through those two unscathed and it will make it interesting as suddenly the odds then reduce to 5 wins from 8 games.
That's all we can hope for at this stage of the season that we carry on reducing the odds.
And if you think that's impossible, when a lot had written the season off after Cheltenham, we then needed 10 wins from 14 games. That sounded well out of our reach. 7 from 10 sounds better - 5 from 8 would look even better.
Massive long shot and am still not sure I have that faith in this side but let's see where we are after the next two games.
 
As said above, one game at a time sweet Jesus, as Lena Martell sings at these times. However Stevenage play FT on sat so you'd expect them to win.....7 points gap. Game in hand....might be 10 if we lose, 9 if we draw against Portsmouth. Even a win and we'd require a 3 game turnaround over 9 games....one hell of an ask.

Looking at the last 5 games and projecting that forward, Stevenage would finish on 74 + a game in hand and us on 72.
 
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fcblackpool said:
As said above, one game at a time sweet Jesus, as Lena Martell sings at these times. However Stevenage play FT on sat so you'd expect them to win.....7 points gap. Game in hand....might be 10 if we lose, 9 if we draw against Portsmouth. Even a win and we'd require a 3 game turnaround over 9 games....one hell of an ask.

Looking at the last 5 games and projecting that forward, Stevenage would finish on 74 + a game in hand and us on 72.
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I and the bookies expect us to win on Saturday, so even if Stevenage win, still a four point gap.
 
fcblackpool said:
As said above, one game at a time sweet Jesus, as Lena Martell sings at these times. However Stevenage play FT on sat so you'd expect them to win.....7 points gap. Game in hand....might be 10 if we lose, 9 if we draw against Portsmouth. Even a win and we'd require a 3 game turnaround over 9 games....one hell of an ask.

Looking at the last 5 games and projecting that forward, Stevenage would finish on 74 + a game in hand and us on 72.
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We could appoint an experienced no.2 for the last ten games, maybe? 😉
 
I’m not sure FT is that easy a game for Stevenage ,FT done well recently and if they do fall short it will be a big blow to them .
 
hampshire_exile said:
When I start getting overly pessimistic (or occasionally optimistic) , I go back to Oddschecker and see what the bookies have to say.

Currently Stevenage are 2/5 on to make the playoffs, we are 7/2, Oxford are 4/1.

That’s probably all that needs to be said.
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Dimitri Van Den Bergh was 7/2 in UK open darts final on Sunday against Luke Humphries (world no 1 and heavy odds on). 😎
 
Stevenage have 5 of the top 10 to play in their last 11 games, one of which is Oxford. IF we beat Portsmouth on Saturday, that leaves us with Barnsley at home and Derby away in the top 10.
Honestly, I'd fancy our chances if we get a result on Saturday, especially with Rhodes returning and Dembele in form.
 
poolfc said:
Stevenage's game in hand is Barnsley at home on Tue 9/4.

16 clean sheets so far (most in league with Portsmouth) that they've turned into 13 wins. A team in the vision of the manager. Not a pretty sight but effective.
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Which is why I can't see them caving in. It's a massive ask to climb above them.
 
I think we need to see Stevenage run out of steam, as I don’t think we have the consistency to get seven or eight wins, very happy to be proved wrong.
 
Saturday is such a huge hurdle but with a week off, long journey for Pompey, they'll be hesitant about playing us, home crowd etc then who knows what might happen.
 
voyeur said:
We could appoint an experienced no.2 for the last ten games, maybe? 😉
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But, given the outstanding progress we've made this season under the stewardship of 'wonderkind' Critchley, is there even any need to raise the question of 'an experienced no. 2' being appointed?
Having considered this for an entire nano-second - I'm now wondering why I even felt the need to ask this ...
 
Maths said:
10 games to go and I think we are of all the assumption that we need 7/10 wins.
It effectively means we can lose 3 games or lose a game and draw 3 but win the rest.
Pompey are top and Northampton are no mugs and so come through those two unscathed and it will make it interesting as suddenly the odds then reduce to 5 wins from 8 games.
That's all we can hope for at this stage of the season that we carry on reducing the odds.
And if you think that's impossible, when a lot had written the season off after Cheltenham, we then needed 10 wins from 14 games. That sounded well out of our reach. 7 from 10 sounds better - 5 from 8 would look even better.
Massive long shot and am still not sure I have that faith in this side but let's see where we are after the next two games.
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Agree entirely. 4 points or more from those 2 games and I might start believing. I would be surprised if 78 points weren't enough.
 
Meliora said:
According to many on here we're dead after each defeat, judging by the 'season's over' posts after each one. The season isn't over and it won't be even if we don't win on Saturday. Winning 7 or 8 out of 10 means not winning 2 or 3, but there are over-reactios every time we drop points.
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We have lost more games already than the teams around us, we have a slight opportunity of 6th place, so yes any defeats would reduce our slight chance to a miniscule one. Not being pessimistic just realistic.
If we recruit we'll and get defenders happy to bring the ball out from the back, I think we will have a good next season
 
NAPMer said:
So where does this leave us? Suppose we still need 7 wins but now from 9 games?
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Put it this way, I think tonight could be a game changer IF we win .. don't think the other two will and so a minimum of 2 points catch up would be huge. After that Wigan and Derby could catapult or kill us!
 
Night matches away tonight against teams at grounds like this have been Pool‘s nemesis all season. They must play like they finished on Saturday. Anything less won’t win it .
 
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