O N S updated report…

Towerpower99

Towerpower99

Well-known member
Has anyone read the ONS report revising past economy figures upwards by a large amount….
Instead of the UK being at the bottom and performing badly they now say we are near the top above Germany and just behind Italy and France.
This is a big deal as opposition parties always used the ONS poor performance figures as a stick to beat the Government with…
Any thoughts…keep them balanced and fair please 😉
 
I'm sure everyone who was struggling to pay for their weekly shop and is worrying about heating their home this winter has now realised they are wrong to think times are tough thanks to a revised spreadsheet number saying things are actually going well.

In all seriousness, it is farfical how this all works. Of course we have to try to track our economy but it's so hard to, and our government has decided we have to have stringent (arbitrary) fiscal rules based on numbers that are constantly changing, and Labour are too scared to do anything different. It leads to ridiculous situations like delaying HS2 because of a silly self enforced fiscal rule in a move that will cost Britain £500m extra, just so we can say we didn't take on any extra debt in 2024. Half a billion quid burned for nothing. We constantly shoot ourselves in the foot over these things and maybe this news will make people question the lunacy of it all
 
On what basis have they revised their initial figures, sorry have not read the report, and given they got it wrong once who is to say they have it right this time?

And, from experience it seems to me that most people arrive at their view on the economic outlook on the basis of how well, or not, they are doing.
 
foggy said:
I'm sure everyone who was struggling to pay for their weekly shop and is worrying about heating their home this winter has now realised they are wrong to think times are tough thanks to a revised spreadsheet number saying things are actually going well.

In all seriousness, it is farfical how this all works. Of course we have to try to track our economy but it's so hard to, and our government has decided we have to have stringent (arbitrary) fiscal rules based on numbers that are constantly changing, and Labour are too scared to do anything different. It leads to ridiculous situations like delaying HS2 because of a silly self enforced fiscal rule in a move that will cost Britain £500m extra, just so we can say we didn't take on any extra debt in 2024. Half a billion quid burned for nothing. We constantly shoot ourselves in the foot over these things and maybe this news will make people question the lunacy of it all
Click to expand...
The lunacy of
braymarina said:
On what basis have they revised their initial figures, sorry have not read the report, and given they got it wrong once who is to say they have it right this time?

And, from experience it seems to me that most people arrive at their view on the economic outlook on the basis of how well, or not, they are doing.
Click to expand...
They say that they now have a wealth of new information that is proven…instead of having to guess….sort of proves the point that the ONS info shouldn’t have the total credibility it is given…,,
 
braymarina said:
On what basis have they revised their initial figures, sorry have not read the report, and given they got it wrong once who is to say they have it right this time?

And, from experience it seems to me that most people arrive at their view on the economic outlook on the basis of how well, or not, they are doing.
Click to expand...

They get better and more detailed information as time goes on, so their initial reports are based on a relatively small sample, as the sample size grows the margin of error shrinks.
 
Perhaps if they waited a bit before publishing their reports, on which various institutions act, they might better provide information which is both more accurate and of value. Just a thought.
 
Lost Seasider said:
They get better and more detailed information as time goes on, so their initial reports are based on a relatively small sample, as the sample size grows the margin of error shrinks.
Click to expand...
Agree LS but what they say has big consequences…large businesses decide future investment and finance is all driven off sentiment aswell…what’s different this time is for over 2 years the ONS we’re so far off it’s scary.
 
The Uk didn't grow more at the end of 2021 it shrank but by less after more updated figures became available from it's annual survey. So the economy shrank 0.6% as opposed to 1.2%. I hope this helps you all feel richer, no problems with winter bills anymore.
 
Towerpower99 said:
Agree LS but what they say has big consequences…large businesses decide future investment and finance is all driven off sentiment aswell…what’s different this time is for over 2 years the ONS we’re so far off it’s scary.
Click to expand...

What's the alternative?

As a general rule, I suggest we add 0.5% - 1% to any economic forecasts for the UK economy, because they all have a baked-in anti-brexit bias and consistently underestimate the actual performance by a considerable margin, perhaps this is another example of the same.
 
Lost Seasider said:
What's the alternative?

As a general rule, I suggest we add 0.5% - 1% to any economic forecasts for the UK economy, because they all have a baked-in anti-brexit bias and consistently underestimate the actual performance by a considerable margin, perhaps this is another example of the same.
Click to expand...
What is the alternative?

As a general rule, I suggest we deduct 2% - 3% from any economic forecasts for the U.K. economy, because the twats have a baked in pro Brexit bias and consistently overestimate the actual performance by a considerable margin, perhaps your post is another example of the same?
 
bill40 said:
The Uk didn't grow more at the end of 2021 it shrank but by less after more updated figures became available from it's annual survey. So the economy shrank 0.6% as opposed to 1.2%. I hope this helps you all feel richer, no problems with winter bills anymore.
Click to expand...
Bill the article says that the UK economy was in fact 0.6 Bigger than pre pandemic levels at the end of 2021..not as the ONS had published 1.2 below…that’s how I read it anyway.
 
ONS, IMF, BoE. All hopelessly wrong in forecasting European economics all of the time. I don't recall them forecasting that 20 Eurozone countries would be in recession. I do remember them saying the UK would be. I also recall the IMF telling us how Russia's economy would be healthier than the UK's. These aren't economic forecasters, they're idiots.
 
Another tread with another load of politically charged biased nonsense.

If it had gone against the government, certain people would be fawning all over the figures.

As they’ve gone in the government’s favour and more importantly OUR favour, we have folk questioning the well established tried and tested economic forecasting and reporting procedures. (Procedures which will be in line with all other major economies and to the specifications of the IFS)!

You couldn’t make it up. Only on AVFTT.
 
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