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basilrobbie

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For some time now (as you do), I have been visiting Nate Silver's "FiveThirtyEight" website and monitoring Trump's net approval/disapproval rating.

For. a long time it hovered between minus 6 and minus 7 percent. Currently, it is minus ten point one. Just pandemic related, do we think?
 
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For some time now (as you do), I have been visiting Nate Silver's "538" website and monitoring Trump's net approval/disapproval rating.

For. a long time it hovered between minus 6 and minus 7 percent. Currently, it is minus ten point one. Just pandemic related, do we think?
Definitely not helped and mainly probably yes.
 
For some time now (as you do), I have been visiting Nate Silver's "538" website and monitoring Trump's net approval/disapproval rating.

For. a long time it hovered between minus 6 and minus 7 percent. Currently, it is minus ten point one. Just pandemic related, do we think?
The Covid-19 briefings have exposed his limitations as a leader, to the American public, more than anything else. It comes as no surprise that his advisers have stopped him attending.
 
More probably the economic effect of the lockdown I’d guess.

But I wouldn’t write him off yet. Still a long way to go to November.

And if he blames China for the virus; and Biden for being soft on China; and the State Governors for deaths arising from the pandemic; then he’s playing to the sentiments of a lot of his supporters.
 
More probably the economic effect of the lockdown I’d guess.

But I wouldn’t write him off yet. Still a long way to go to November.

And if he blames China for the virus; and Biden for being soft on China; and the State Governors for deaths arising from the pandemic; then he’s playing to the sentiments of a lot of his supporters.
That's how I see it Mex and reckon that's how the narcissist will play it
A friend and cousin live in the states- NYC and California- both say his supporters know he is a liar and inept but they will vote for him regardless

Mex he also has the xenophobic ace up his sleeve which again could be a game changer nearer to the election
 
More probably the economic effect of the lockdown I’d guess.

But I wouldn’t write him off yet. Still a long way to go to November.

And if he blames China for the virus; and Biden for being soft on China; and the State Governors for deaths arising from the pandemic; then he’s playing to the sentiments of a lot of his supporters.
Are you his campaign manager?
 
He could get dangerous if he thinks he is going to lose IMO.
He could be tempted into some reckless grand gestures in order to try and turn things around.
 
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I'd recomend the 538 podcast too.

The likelihood is that the dip in Trump's approval is virus related, another good listen is David Runciman's Taking Politics Podcast where he interviewed Michael Lewis, this was orginally published in December and he forecast that all of Trump's inadequacies as President would be laid bare if ever there was a national disaster such as 9/11 or Katrina. Also it highlights his imcompetance and negligence since assuming office.


Lytham is right, some of the rustbelt states that elected Trump in 2016 also went for Sanders over Clinton in the Democrat primaries. Biden has trounced Sanders in the same states this time around suggesting a siginificant anti-Clinton vote four years ago in some of the key swing states.
 
You have to ask yourself why did people vote for Trump?

I think one big contributor (as with many populist politicians) is a sense of grievance. That may or may not be a justified grievance, but that is irrelevant to the person who has the grievance. The grievance might be a feeling of being left behind. Of historically being higher up in the pecking order but now (whether true or not) falling behind other communities or ethnicities in your country. Then in the States abortion (pro and anti), religion and guns are far more important than they are here. Anything that challenges those values (feminism, atheism, calls for gun control) fuel the sense of grievance.

And once there’s a grievance there’s a desire for revenge. Where someone has done you wrong it would be revenge against that person. But that isn’t possible when you’re talking about a country. So it focuses on groups of people or, these days, a culture. So in the States, the “enemy” of the Trump supporters are the liberals, feminists, homosexuals, media, the “elite” and the “deep state” etc.

And Trump (like many populist politicians) has tapped into that sense grievance and that desire for revenge. He knows achieving revenge against the groups his supporters perceive as being responsible for all their woes, is more important for those supporters than actually improving their lives economically.

In short, provided he can find an enemy and attack that enemy, he’ll be doing precisely what his supporters crave. Now you and I might think it’s bonkers to support him, but clearly he’s hit a rich seam. People really do enjoy a good hate.
 
His limitations have been there to see for a long time
His limitations have been highlighted on here for over three years but regardless, there are still acolytes saying he's misunderstood and is great for America and the world in general.
 
Only in America.
Voters had the choice of a woman who couldn't lie straight in bed and a moron.
They opted not to vote for the former and got the latter who is depriving a village somewhere of an idiot.
 
His limitations have been highlighted on here for over three years but regardless, there are still acolytes saying he's misunderstood and is great for America and the world in general.
And they believe that because they know it pisses off the left/liberals etc. For his acolytes that’s the most important thing; not what he actually achieves.
 
Clinton was a poor candidate before the campaigns even started, hated in parts of the country and failed to land obvious blows on Trump, but even then he failed to win the popular vote.

He doesn't have time to bribe through the economy and there's a lot of unemployed now in the very states he won.

He was scared of Biden before all this and acted beyond his office to try and stop him, hence the impeachment.

There's a long way to go but you can only really see Trump digging himself deeper as he flusters, blusters and panics.
 
I think there is a hard core of close to 40% of those who turned out last time who will vote for him come what may. Call it the Red Neck Belt ; they carry guns when they go to the toilet, think they need a passport to go out of state and would really prefer to vote for Tom Clancy if they could. They will believe anything of Sleepy Joe and thus will lap Trump's slurs up.

For me there are two things that could bring him down :

1) the swing states that are not seeing much sign of economic recovery by November OR have been disproportionately hit by the virus (I'm thinking Florida and Michigan, mainly, but there could be others)

2) how well the Democrats succeed in getting the Afro-American and Hispanic vote out. They won the popular vote last time, and I think it wouldn't take too many more in the right places to carry the electoral college

The bookies think it is too close to call at the moment. The polls typically have Biden 6 points in front. It could go right to the wire. And of course there is a lot of water yet to flow under the bridge.
 
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I think there is a hard core of close to 40% of those who turned out last time who will vote for him come what may. Call it the Red Neck Belt ; they carry guns when they go to the toilet, think they need a passport to go out of state and would really prefer to vote for Tom Clancy if they could. They will believe anything of Sleepy Joe and thus will lap Trump's slurs up.

For me there are two things that could bring him down :

1) the swing states that are not seeing much sign of economic recovery by November OR have been disproportionately hit by the virus (I'm thinking Florida and Michigan, mainly, but there could be others)

2) how well the Democrats succeed in getting the Afro-American and Hispanic vote out. They won the democratic vote last time, and I think it wouldn't take too many more in the right places to carry the electoral college

The bookies think it is too close to call at the moment. The polls typically have Biden 6 points in front. It could go right to the wire. And of course there is a lot of water yet to flow under the bridge.
Six points ahead of a sitting president without any campaigning is massive.
 
Yet before the pandemic the economy was booming with record employment levels, including Afro-Americans. Explain that one folks if he’s such a cretin.
 
Yet before the pandemic the economy was booming with record employment levels, including Afro-Americans. Explain that one folks if he’s such a cretin.
He told you it was booming, but the rust belt was still exactly that. He also told you he'd lock up Hillary and build a wall that Mexico would pay for. How's those election promises going?
 
Yet before the pandemic the economy was booming with record employment levels, including Afro-Americans. Explain that one folks if he’s such a cretin.
Fair point but now it is facing record unemployment and benefit requests. USA USA USA is teetering on the edge and Trump has played a major part in that
 
He borrowed massively, he's added almost 10 trillion in 3 years, almost a third.
That's the problem Lytham they wont give a fk - it's not about the economy- its vase instinct and Trump knows how to sling the red meat to his baying supporters
I'll tell you something else ge would have supporters in the UK- indeed isn't Farage a fan - our very own red meat man
 
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