Reform ⬆️ Conservatives ⬇️

foggy said:
Hopefully they've vetted him a bit more than some of the other candidates they've had to drop recently. At least he's got a better background, having set up a food bank. Must have had some interesting conversations with 30p Lee on the campaign, since he doesn't think food poverty exists in Britain?

They should be aiming for 20% at least, anything under and it will confirm more my suspicions they aren't converting their polling into votes when the time comes.
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Your probably expecting too much there.

Firstly a by election doesn't get the masses out.

They AFAIK didn't plan to run here and now are, so have a month of campaigning and then are relying on their current national status, which is growing but not where it needs to be yet. The polling isn't even that high in the best polls yet and you'd have to get everyone out presumably.

It will be interesting as people will likely not go mad for the Tories, yet also moan like hell about the local labour council, so to do that then vote Labour seems a bit odd, but I guess is slightly different.
 
JJpool said:
Your probably expecting too much there.

Firstly a by election doesn't get the masses out.

They AFAIK didn't plan to run here and now are, so have a month of campaigning and then are relying on their current national status, which is growing but not where it needs to be yet. The polling isn't even that high in the best polls yet and you'd have to get everyone out presumably.

It will be interesting as people will likely not go mad for the Tories, yet also moan like hell about the local labour council, so to do that then vote Labour seems a bit odd, but I guess is slightly different.
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You are arguing that the Tories should step aside and let Reform have a go and you think 20% in Blackpool South is too high an expectation? That's a very low bar. It's 20% of the vote, it doesn't matter what the turnout is. It's a relative number. I don't know where this story has come from that they weren't planning on running at all but that's absolutely bizarre if true, and kind of illustrates my point that they are not a serious party with local organisation to run campaigns. Blackpool South should be a fertile area for them. White working class red wall area without many college/university graduates, collapse in trust in the Conservatives, and according to you people don't trust Labour very strongly locally and were clearly departing the party in the last few elections. Wages are far, far below the UK average.

UKIP were consistenly getting 20% and over around 2014-16 in by elections. They were able to actually motivate protest voters who were disillusioned with the two main parties. UKIP and then the Brexit party were undoubtedly becoming a real electoral force. If this is what you are arguing Reform might be able to do, then it's odd to have such a low standard for them now. If they are truly polling in the mid teens, then it's only logical that in places like Blackpool they need to be hitting in the 20s, to make up for all the places they will get far less than their polling average, like Scotland, the Home Counties and London
 
foggy said:
You are arguing that the Tories should step aside and let Reform have a go and you think 20% in Blackpool South is too high an expectation? That's a very low bar. It's 20% of the vote, it doesn't matter what the turnout is. It's a relative number. I don't know where this story has come from that they weren't planning on running at all but that's absolutely bizarre if true, and kind of illustrates my point that they are not a serious party with local organisation to run campaigns. Blackpool South should be a fertile area for them. White working class red wall area without many college/university graduates, collapse in trust in the Conservatives, and according to you people don't trust Labour very strongly locally and were clearly departing the party in the last few elections. Wages are far, far below the UK average.

UKIP were consistenly getting 20% and over around 2014-16 in by elections. They were able to actually motivate protest voters who were disillusioned with the two main parties. UKIP and then the Brexit party were undoubtedly becoming a real electoral force. If this is what you are arguing Reform might be able to do, then it's odd to have such a low standard for them now. If they are truly polling in the mid teens, then it's only logical that in places like Blackpool they need to be hitting in the 20s, to make up for all the places they will get far less than their polling average, like Scotland, the Home Counties and London
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Well if the Tories stepped aside then they'd get far more votes, wouldn't they, which was the point made in jest as it's not going to happen.

So you expect them to get higher than the highest poll...

I'm sure I read it somewhere but maybe it was wrong. I can't find anything now but it's hard to find. Might have been Blackpool gazette, which might explain it..anyway irrelevant now.

By elections are largely about ground game according to some, general elections have far more over the airwaves so you can't always link what happens in one to a general.

Locally people's trust in the Conservative mp was mixed, he'd put himself about more than any past mp according to many and yes people do also slate the local labour council, whereas I actually overall defend them. So it's a bit of a weird one as to what people will do.

Ukip had a strong ground game according to NF, something Reform do currently lag behind in, but this general election is about building, increasing brand recognition which will go through the roof when the general begins and being best placed to take advantage of it and for next time, it's a long game too.

I think considering the lack of ground game 20% would be quite hopeful, but whoknows.
 
JJpool said:
Well if the Tories stepped aside then they'd get far more votes, wouldn't they, which was the point made in jest as it's not going to happen.

So you expect them to get higher than the highest poll...

I'm sure I read it somewhere but maybe it was wrong. I can't find anything now but it's hard to find. Might have been Blackpool gazette, which might explain it..anyway irrelevant now.

By elections are largely about ground game according to some, general elections have far more over the airwaves so you can't always link what happens in one to a general.

Locally people's trust in the Conservative mp was mixed, he'd put himself about more than any past mp according to many and yes people do also slate the local labour council, whereas I actually overall defend them. So it's a bit of a weird one as to what people will do.

Ukip had a strong ground game according to NF, something Reform do currently lag behind in, but this general election is about building, increasing brand recognition which will go through the roof when the general begins and being best placed to take advantage of it and for next time, it's a long game too.

I think considering the lack of ground game 20% would be quite hopeful, but whoknows.
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JJ, you don't seem to understand that polls cover the entirety of Great Britain. If Reform were hoping to get 16% of the vote in an election tomorrow, they would simply have to get a much higher result in a demographically friendly place like Blackpool South, because they will be getting nowhere near that in certain other areas of the country. It's an average, the votes aren't evenly distributed. Labour got 33% of the overall vote in the UK in 2019, and yet got 48% in London. Yes, Reform needs to be higher than their polling average in Blackpool South, by a decent amount too. That's entirely normal and expected. Blackpool South has exactly the sort of people Reform are trying to make their pitch to.

General elections absolutely rely on local ground game too, and while I'm open to the idea that Reform may do slightly better in a GE than a BE, I think that's a huge uncertainty that is widely open to debate. What I know for sure is, UKIP did very well in by-elections when they were becoming a political force. So they set historical precedents that Reform have so far fallen well short of. You are correctly identifying problems with Reform have as to why they may fail to get over 20%, which has been my point this entire thread! You're agreeing with me without realising. They are not a serious electoral force. Not right now. If Farage comes back, then that may well change, but as of right now they are a minor footnote on the electoral landscape. Everyone has known a Blackpool South by-election was coming a year now, and anyone who knows anything about the British voting landscape would be able to identify it as a consituency they can do well in (relatively). The fact they only just picked a candidate and started campaigning and are so far behind locally as you said, shows how poorly ran they are.
 
foggy said:
JJ, you don't seem to understand that polls cover the entirety of Great Britain. If Reform were hoping to get 16% of the vote in an election tomorrow, they would simply have to get a much higher result in a demographically friendly place like Blackpool South, because they will be getting nowhere near that in certain other areas of the country. It's an average, the votes aren't evenly distributed. Labour got 33% of the overall vote in the UK in 2019, and yet got 48% in London. Yes, Reform needs to be higher than their polling average in Blackpool South, by a decent amount too. That's entirely normal and expected. Blackpool South has exactly the sort of people Reform are trying to make their pitch to.

General elections absolutely rely on local ground game too, and while I'm open to the idea that Reform may do slightly better in a GE than a BE, I think that's a huge uncertainty that is widely open to debate. What I know for sure is, UKIP did very well in by-elections when they were becoming a political force. So they set historical precedents that Reform have so far fallen well short of. You are correctly identifying problems with Reform have as to why they may fail to get over 20%, which has been my point this entire thread! You're agreeing with me without realising. They are not a serious electoral force. Not right now. If Farage comes back, then that may well change, but as of right now they are a minor footnote on the electoral landscape. Everyone has known a Blackpool South by-election was coming a year now, and anyone who knows anything about the British voting landscape would be able to identify it as a consituency they can do well in (relatively). The fact they only just picked a candidate and started campaigning and are so far behind locally as you said, shows how poorly ran they are.
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Of course I do, the poll of polls was about 12%, so it would be higher in Blackpool probably but also its a by-election and again the ground game. It's all about who's motivated to come out.

I'd just be pleasantly surprised if they get 20% in a by election, but they do seem to have a decent enough guy.

I am agreeing about the by election not without realising, or maybe you're just not realising that I'm only making the points based on what's happening, you enter a debate on here people suddenly think you're wedded to an idea forever, or that you feel more strongly than you do.

The thread was about a national poll and the rise of Reform, which is happening. There are factors that may lessen a by election vs general and also after what happened I'm not sure how much people wanted this, given there may be a general in short time, so it's unknown who will come out. Labour will be motivated as they'll have just got many people to sign the petition.

I hope they do well, it might be good for the town to have some real focus now from someone who sees the worst side to really push those improvements after tons of other regeneration. I mean it's on the cards anyway with plans to improve the worst neighbourhoods, but it'll take time and more money than what's been secured.

They may be behind in many areas but are doing very well considering many still don't know about them but will and also the growth they are yet to make. It's all about growing and being recognised as the alternative, which the advertising of a general election will do. If the Tories didn't stand, people would then vote for them far more given they've nowhere else to go.
 
JJpool said:
Of course I do, the poll of polls was about 12%, so it would be higher in Blackpool probably but also its a by-election and again the ground game. It's all about who's motivated to come out.

I'd just be pleasantly surprised if they get 20% in a by election, but they do seem to have a decent enough guy.

I am agreeing about the by election not without realising, or maybe you're just not realising that I'm only making the points based on what's happening, you enter a debate on here people suddenly think you're wedded to an idea forever, or that you feel more strongly than you do.

The thread was about a national poll and the rise of Reform, which is happening. There are factors that may lessen a by election vs general and also after what happened I'm not sure how much people wanted this, given there may be a general in short time, so it's unknown who will come out. Labour will be motivated as they'll have just got many people to sign the petition.

I hope they do well, it might be good for the town to have some real focus now from someone who sees the worst side to really push those improvements after tons of other regeneration. I mean it's on the cards anyway with plans to improve the worst neighbourhoods, but it'll take time and more money than what's been secured.

They may be behind in many areas but are doing very well considering many still don't know about them but will and also the growth they are yet to make. It's all about growing and being recognised as the alternative, which the advertising of a general election will do. If the Tories didn't stand, people would then vote for them far more given they've nowhere else to go.
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My points all along in this thread is that Reform haven't been backing up their polling and so far havent been converting that in by-elections for a myriad of reasons, so I'm highly spectical they will do so at a GE. At the start of this thread you were sort of pushing this poll and idea they can get 15% or a bit higher, which is what I've been arguing against. I think 12% is more reasonable (but still on the high end). In the last few replies you have agreed with some of my reasoning as they pertain to Blackpool. If you're adding more information and adapting your opinions, that's a good thing! I will do likewise if they start turning around some of these BE results. If they do get over 20% in Blackpool South (or if Farage comes back), I will say it's time to sit up and take a bit of notice.

The problem with people getting to know you more is a) they might not like what they see (look at all these stories starting to come out about their candidates elsewhere), or the embarrassment of a party leader debasing himself with Twitter drama over Gullis as Tice did over the weekend (which tbf as someone who can't stand Gullis, I'm very much here for) and b) they actually might not really get to know you more at all. As I said, this by-election has been coming for a year, the more I think about it, the poorer it looks for Reform that they are so far behind in campaigning efforts. That's a lack of organisation. Everything I've seen from them so far tells me they are poorly placed to capture a real, significant third party vote, if indeed there is an appetite for such a vote (I tend to think this idea is overpriced).
 
foggy said:
My points all along in this thread is that Reform haven't been backing up their polling and so far havent been converting that in by-elections for a myriad of reasons, so I'm highly spectical they will do so at a GE. At the start of this thread you were sort of pushing this poll and idea they can get 15% or a bit higher, which is what I've been arguing against. I think 12% is more reasonable (but still on the high end). In the last few replies you have agreed with some of my reasoning as they pertain to Blackpool. If you're adding more information and adapting your opinions, that's a good thing! I will do likewise if they start turning around some of these BE results. If they do get over 20% in Blackpool South (or if Farage comes back), I will say it's time to sit up and take a bit of notice.

The problem with people getting to know you more is a) they might not like what they see (look at all these stories starting to come out about their candidates elsewhere), or the embarrassment of a party leader debasing himself with Twitter drama over Gullis as Tice did over the weekend (which tbf as someone who can't stand Gullis, I'm very much here for) and b) they actually might not really get to know you more at all. As I said, this by-election has been coming for a year, the more I think about it, the poorer it looks for Reform that they are so far behind in campaigning efforts. That's a lack of organisation. Everything I've seen from them so far tells me they are poorly placed to capture a real, significant third party vote, if indeed there is an appetite for such a vote (I tend to think this idea is overpriced).
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As I said at the time they pretty much went along with national polling in past by elections, yes might have been higher but again it is a factor they are behind on the ground, less of a factor in the general given the amount of media coverage on tv online etc. So to be doing so well with so little already is a sign they can grow.

Actually I mentioned the national poll as a news discussion article and also said they need to improve their ground campaigns etc. I've also said it's unlikely they'll get in due to the system but are growing and building longer term too, whilst making an impact now.

My opinion hasn't changed, I think I said if that poll was right it could be interesting as they got more than that in Wellingborough, which you'd expect but also given what they lack by-elections aren't best built for them. This thread wasn't about by-elections.

You may be right about being behind and that shows where they are however they are starting for almost nothing, they've got their guy out now and let's see.

As for nationally there's no doubt as more become aware they will grow, some will like some wont, but they are far from maxed out yet, given the disadvantages you state they have, to be doing so well shows that.
 
JJpool said:
As I said at the time they pretty much went along with national polling in past by elections, yes might have been higher but again it is a factor they are behind on the ground, less of a factor in the general given the amount of media coverage on tv online etc. So to be doing so well with so little already is a sign they can grow.

Actually I mentioned the national poll as a news discussion article and also said they need to improve their ground campaigns etc. I've also said it's unlikely they'll get in due to the system but are growing and building longer term too, whilst making an impact now.

My opinion hasn't changed, I think I said if that poll was right it could be interesting as they got more than that in Wellingborough, which you'd expect but also given what they lack by-elections aren't best built for them. This thread wasn't about by-elections.

You may be right about being behind and that shows where they are however they are starting for almost nothing, they've got their guy out now and let's see.

As for nationally there's no doubt as more become aware they will grow, some will like some wont, but they are far from maxed out yet, given the disadvantages you state they have, to be doing so well shows that.
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You mention Wellingborough with a very odd interpetation of that result again - that should have also been a seat they needed to do better than their national polling in. UKIP got 2nd place there above Labour in the 2015 GE with 20% of the vote, but got 13% overall in the UK. Sorry to beat a dead horse but to repeat my point, polling is an average. UKIP and Reform are not exacty the same of course, but if UKIP outperformed their national average by 7 percentage points in Wellinborough, the fact that Reform only beat theirs by 2.6% is poor and is why I believe their polling numbers doesnt reflect how voters would vote in a GE if there was one tomorrow

If this thread is about Reform's electoral chances, then it is also about by-elections, as they are obviously decent barometers in midterms while we await the GE. It's a data point. These are concrete things that I put more stock into now, rather than a completely open question about how they will do at a general election. Their non-existent ground game and poor quality of candidates will surely be more exposed. If they want the attention they better be ready for prime-time, as yet they haven't given any reason for confidence that they are. If they can't even focus on one very demographically friendly seat with a year of time to plan, when they could and should push the Tories for 2nd place and generate a lot of buzz and publicity, how are they going to run an entire national campaign fielding candidates in every consituency in the UK? That would worry me greatly if I were a Reform supporter. Well, relatively of course. I wouldn't let it ruin my weekend or anything.
 
I don't think Reform will win any seats, but they will attract some protest votes that will cause more Tories to lose their seats to Labour and the LDs.
I also think many Tory voters will protest by staying at home and turnout will be down
 
foggy said:
You mention Wellingborough with a very odd interpetation of that result again - that should have also been a seat they needed to do better than their national polling in. UKIP got 2nd place there above Labour in the 2015 GE with 20% of the vote, but got 13% overall in the UK. Sorry to beat a dead horse but to repeat my point, polling is an average. UKIP and Reform are not exacty the same of course, but if UKIP outperformed their national average by 7 percentage points in Wellinborough, the fact that Reform only beat theirs by 2.6% is poor and is why I believe their polling numbers doesnt reflect how voters would vote in a GE if there was one tomorrow

If this thread is about Reform's electoral chances, then it is also about by-elections, as they are obviously decent barometers in midterms while we await the GE. It's a data point. These are concrete things that I put more stock into now, rather than a completely open question about how they will do at a general election. Their non-existent ground game and poor quality of candidates will surely be more exposed. If they want the attention they better be ready for prime-time, as yet they haven't given any reason for confidence that they are. If they can't even focus on one very demographically friendly seat with a year of time to plan, when they could and should push the Tories for 2nd place and generate a lot of buzz and publicity, how are they going to run an entire national campaign fielding candidates in every consituency in the UK? That would worry me greatly if I were a Reform supporter. Well, relatively of course. I wouldn't let it ruin my weekend or anything.
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Again, the lack of a ukip strength ground campaign won't help in by elections, as you yourself said, so whilst they are slightly up on national polls you'd expect a bit more, but only if they can get their mesaage and voters out. In a general election their presence will grow, the media coverage will be huge and the vote far more important.

As I've said all along the longer they wait for a general election the more time Reform have to get things in place, get the message out there, increase brand awareness etc.

I think they view it as a long game too, everyone will know of them during and after the election and they've done well to get the polling so far given the time they've been going, what they lack, so if I were the tories I'd be a little worried that they aren't near their full potential yet.

If they had a ukip style recognition and ground campaigns and were still only on a low amount, you might legitimately say they haven’t for much growth left.

But that's not the case.
 
JJpool said:
Again, the lack of a ukip strength ground campaign won't help in by elections, as you yourself said, so whilst they are slightly up on national polls you'd expect a bit more, but only if they can get their mesaage and voters out. In a general election their presence will grow, the media coverage will be huge and the vote far more important.

As I've said all along the longer they wait for a general election the more time Reform have to get things in place, get the message out there, increase brand awareness etc.

I think they view it as a long game too, everyone will know of them during and after the election and they've done well to get the polling so far given the time they've been going, what they lack, so if I were the tories I'd be a little worried that they aren't near their full potential yet.

If they had a ukip style recognition and ground campaigns and were still only on a low amount, you might legitimately say they haven’t for much growth left.

But that's not the case.
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I think you're forgetting what the point of a poll is here and what I've been arguing. Pollsters ask people who they would vote for if an election were tomorrow. Some people are saying Reform, yet imperfect but still useful by-election results so far aren't matching that number. Polls aren't asking you who you will vote for if they run a good campaign, get their message out, and once you hear far more about them locally and nationally - which you are presuming will a) actually happen, because what could happen is everyone focuses on Labour and they get drowned out and b) help and not hinder. Polls are a snapshot of how things stand, right now. And it's this snapshot that I'm suspecting is currently overhyping Reform by a few percentage points, as they perform below expectations on what should be their easiest seats. So you can have the opinion that Reform will rise and do better come a GE, and I think that is a perfectly reasonable belief but one that there are in my mind just as many arguments against as for. We can only wait to see how it shakes out. But my argument throughout this thread is that they are underperforming their polls right now. That those numbers, reflecting what people would vote like tomorrow, are not quite accurate. And if they don't hit 20% in BS, that's more evidence. But I'm not saying that Reform can't reach that number or higher come October or whenever the election will be. That's a different debate altogether.
 
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foggy said:
I think you're forgetting what the point of a poll is here and what I've been arguing. Pollsters ask people who they would vote for if an election were tomorrow. Some people are saying Reform, yet imperfect but still useful by-election results so far aren't matching that number. Polls aren't asking you who you will vote for if they run a good campaign, get their message out, and once you hear far more about them locally and nationally - which you are presuming will a) actually happen, because what could happen is everyone focuses on Labour and they get drowned out and b) help and not hinder. Polls are a snapshot of how things stand, right now. And it's this snapshot that I'm suspecting is currently overhyping Reform by a few percentage points, as they perform below expectations on what should be their easiest seats. So you can have the opinion that Reform will rise and do better come a GE, and I think that is a perfectly reasonable belief but one that there are in my mind just as many arguments against as for. We can only wait to see how it shakes out. But my argument throughout this thread is that they are underperforming their polls right now. That those numbers, reflecting what people would vote like tomorrow, are not quite accurate. And if they don't hit 20% in BS, that's more evidence. But I'm not saying that Reform can't reach that number or higher come October or whenever the election will be. That's a different debate altogether.
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I stand by what I've said and disagree about them underperforming, given the factors. Their by election result in Wellingborough was OK, if not groundbreaking, considering they shouldn't really be as strong at by-elections and the sort of voters needed are possibly harder to mobilise for smaller events. Even with all that said it'll still be interesting to see how they do.

Labour being a cert actually helps IMO in the general election, as people don't have to vote conservative now, there may be more freedom.

They were polling about 6% 6 months ago, they've risen fast since then and should continue to with publicity, the NF factor and more to come.
 
JJpool said:
I stand by what I've said and disagree about them underperforming, given the factors. Their by election result in Wellingborough was OK, if not groundbreaking, considering they shouldn't really be as strong at by-elections and the sort of voters needed are possibly harder to mobilise for smaller events. Even with all that said it'll still be interesting to see how they do.

Labour being a cert actually helps IMO in the general election, as people don't have to vote conservative now, there may be more freedom.

They were polling about 6% 6 months ago, they've risen fast since then and should continue to with publicity, the NF factor and more to come.
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If they can't mobilise voters and get them out to the ballot box as you are admitting then I am literally correct in my assertion that 13% is too high because right now they wouldn't be able to convert that. That is my point. All you've done is bake in the expectation.

By the way, Blackpool South is not a small event. I'm surprised you keep downplaying this and I suspect you're engaged in a bit of expectation management because you support them but it isn't helping. It is one of the best constituencies for them in the entirety of the United Kingdom. They could and should be targeting 2nd place, beating the Tories. That would give a tidal wave of publicity, because our news media is desperate for any new narrative. They would get weeks of press pushing them as a real alternative and challenger to the Tories. They've had a year to prepare to gain that. If they can't run an effective campaign here God help them at the general election. The idea that they can half arse this but will run a brilliant strategy across 650 seats in 6 months time is pretty bizarre. They can literally pour all their resources into this one town. Looking at the news stories that have come out about some of their candidates recently, this one clearly ranks as one of their best. Lee Anderson and Richard Tice can rent out a holiday flat and live in Blackpool South for a month if they wanted. You think Lee Anderson is going to be driving around a Reform bus across every single constituency in the UK come October?
 
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Reform will be lucky to get a dozen seats. Like it or not at the next Election the only party to be able to remove the Tories is Labour.
 
foggy said:
If they can't mobilise voters and get them out to the ballot box as you are admitting then I am literally correct in my assertion that 13% is too high because right now they wouldn't be able to convert that. That is my point. All you've done is bake in the expectation.

By the way, Blackpool South is not a small event. I'm surprised you keep downplaying this and I suspect you're engaged in a bit of expectation management because you support them but it isn't helping. It is one of the best constituencies for them in the entirety of the United Kingdom. They could and should be targeting 2nd place, beating the Tories. That would give a tidal wave of publicity, because our news media is desperate for any new narrative. They would get weeks of press pushing them as a real alternative and challenger to the Tories. They've had a year to prepare to gain that. If they can't run an effective campaign here God help them at the general election. The idea that they can half arse this but will run a brilliant strategy across 650 seats in 6 months time is pretty bizarre. They can literally pour all their resources into this one town. Looking at the news stories that have come out about some of their candidates recently, this one clearly ranks as one of their best. Lee Anderson and Richard Tice can rent out a holiday flat and live in Blackpool South for a month if they wanted. You think Lee Anderson is going to be driving around a Reform bus across every single constituency in the UK come October?
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No, there are factors for a by-election, different to a general and you keep repeating the same points so we're going round in circles, I'm just judging it as I see it, even Farage said as much in the video I posted, given a general election gets massive media coverage.

I'm not downplaying anything, they get what they get, I've only stated factors that may well limit then getting the numbers you mentioned. Maybe they'll do better, whoknows.

I hope they do put a lot into it as yes it would be a result that gets big news, however if it's not quite as high as you expect them it's doesn't define what can happen in a general and the impact they can have overall and long term as they grow.

I've no idea what will happen as it's a weird landscape, with local labour dislike yet likely voting for them on a national scale. I agree this should be one of their best chances for a big number in a general or by election, but what's their ground campaign like compared to an established outfit, not sure.

It's going to be interesting to see how this one unfolds.
 
JJpool said:
No, there are factors for a by-election, different to a general and you keep repeating the same points so we're going round in circles, I'm just judging it as I see it, even Farage said as much in the video I posted, given a general election gets massive media coverage.

I'm not downplaying anything, they get what they get, I've only stated factors that may well limit then getting the numbers you mentioned. Maybe they'll do better, whoknows.

I hope they do put a lot into it as yes it would be a result that gets big news, however if it's not quite as high as you expect them it's doesn't define what can happen in a general and the impact they can have overall and long term as they grow.

I've no idea what will happen as it's a weird landscape, with local labour dislike yet likely voting for them on a national scale. I agree this should be one of their best chances for a big number in a general or by election, but what's their ground campaign like compared to an established outfit, not sure.

It's going to be interesting to see how this one unfolds.
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Farage definitely knows a lot about winning general elections with the 7 times he stood and 7 times he's lost 👍
 
foggy said:
Farage definitely knows a lot about winning general elections with the 7 times he stood and 7 times he's lost 👍
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Yep he knows nowt about being involved in them and how they work.

He'll probably tell you it's quite difficult in the system we have and when on the right with the campaigns against him. Did well in the European ones though.
 
Reform don’t need to get any seats. By virtue of the media repeating their ‘threat’ to voting numbers they’re dragging the Tory party (and indirectly Labour) further and further right. Sunak saying he’d pull out of the ECHR is an attempt to appease the right of his party who are effectively Reform- see who attended Farage’s birthday party. It’s not a conspiracy, but like Labour got swamped with Corbynites, the Tories are currently dominated by the Reform wing. They’re wielding power without actually doing anything and having no accountability.
 
Seaside Aggro said:
Reform don’t need to get any seats. By virtue of the media repeating their ‘threat’ to voting numbers they’re dragging the Tory party (and indirectly Labour) further and further right. Sunak saying he’d pull out of the ECHR is an attempt to appease the right of his party who are effectively Reform- see who attended Farage’s birthday party. It’s not a conspiracy, but like Labour got swamped with Corbynites, the Tories are currently dominated by the Reform wing. They’re wielding power without actually doing anything and having no accountability.
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I agree with you that - as far as social media goes - our politics seems increasingly polarised and shrill. You can see that just by reading a few of the thoughts of our own extremists on AVFTT.

But most British people aren't on the fringes. They are decent and fair minded and want to vote for politicians who are similar. It's not a case of being "dragged" to left or right. It's about occupying moderate middle ground and offering people a mixture of principle and pragmatism. If you can manage to look fairly serious minded and halfway competent along the way, all the better.

Reform and a certain wing of the Tory Party appeal to a slice of the electorate that hanker after a Britain that disappeared for good after WW2. They try to appeal to that sense of nostalgia by demonising the rest of the world and parroting a few three word cliches (it's nearly always three) and wrapping it all up in the Union Jack. It's no serious basis for Government, and fortunately enough people continue to see through it.
 

Interesting interview with Aaron Banks here, suggesting that many tories could defect if Farage comes back and suggesting he'll find it hard not to. If he leads Reform or gets involved then some serious money, tens of millions, could be coming in from many donors...
 
foggy said:
My points all along in this thread is that Reform haven't been backing up their polling and so far havent been converting that in by-elections for a myriad of reasons, so I'm highly spectical they will do so at a GE. At the start of this thread you were sort of pushing this poll and idea they can get 15% or a bit higher, which is what I've been arguing against. I think 12% is more reasonable (but still on the high end). In the last few replies you have agreed with some of my reasoning as they pertain to Blackpool. If you're adding more information and adapting your opinions, that's a good thing! I will do likewise if they start turning around some of these BE results. If they do get over 20% in Blackpool South (or if Farage comes back), I will say it's time to sit up and take a bit of notice.

The problem with people getting to know you more is a) they might not like what they see (look at all these stories starting to come out about their candidates elsewhere), or the embarrassment of a party leader debasing himself with Twitter drama over Gullis as Tice did over the weekend (which tbf as someone who can't stand Gullis, I'm very much here for) and b) they actually might not really get to know you more at all. As I said, this by-election has been coming for a year, the more I think about it, the poorer it looks for Reform that they are so far behind in campaigning efforts. That's a lack of organisation. Everything I've seen from them so far tells me they are poorly placed to capture a real, significant third party vote, if indeed there is an appetite for such a vote (I tend to think this idea is overpriced).
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If a GE was called tomorrow, they are forecast to get no seats. They'll push a few places close but won't get enough of the collapsing Tory vote.
 
JJpool said:

Interesting interview with Aaron Banks here, suggesting that many tories could defect if Farage comes back and suggesting he'll find it hard not to. If he leads Reform or gets involved then some serious money, tens of millions, could be coming in from many donors...
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Gets involved? He literally owns it.
 
JJpool said:

Interesting interview with Aaron Banks here, suggesting that many tories could defect if Farage comes back and suggesting he'll find it hard not to. If he leads Reform or gets involved then some serious money, tens of millions, could be coming in from many donors...
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Russians, like Aaron Banks' funding 😉
 
Wizaard said:
Gets involved? He literally owns it.
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But he's not actually involved yet and doing so would see a big shift in polls, bringing with him the UKIP experience on the ground etc.

Wizaard said:
Russians, like Aaron Banks' funding 😉
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Yet nothing is ever proven, like with Trump, seemed to be a typical attack from those who dislike them. It's the Russians.

Infact he sued someone successfully on appeal...
 
JJpool said:
But he's not actually involved yet and doing so would see a big shift in polls, bringing with him the UKIP experience on the ground etc.


Yet nothing is ever proven, like with Trump, seemed to be a typical attack from those who dislike them. It's the Russians.

Infact he sued someone successfully on appeal...
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Using the Oyston bullying libel laws.
 
Wizaard said:
Using the Oyston bullying libel laws.
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Either the law is on your side or not, if there was any evidence, people would have been found out.

Key difference to Oystons too, seems he might have actually won something in court...
 
JJpool said:
Either the law is on your side or not, if there was any evidence, people would have been found out.

Key difference to Oystons too, seems he might have actually won something in court...
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Plenty of people couldn't afford to take them on in court, that's my point.
 
Wizaard said:
Plenty of people couldn't afford to take them on in court, that's my point.
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My point is these claims are a lot more serious and despite the best intelligence in the world, like in the claims against trump, afaik nothing concrete was ever found.
 
JJpool said:
My point is these claims are a lot more serious and despite the best intelligence in the world, like in the claims against trump, afaik nothing concrete was ever found.
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All the claims against Trump unfounded? Other than he was convicted of sexual assault? Other than he bought off a porn star? Other than his house was stuffed with government papers he shouldn't have access to after his Presidency?

His fans just don't see it.
 
Wizaard said:
All the claims against Trump unfounded? Other than he was convicted of sexual assault? Other than he bought off a porn star? Other than his house was stuffed with government papers he shouldn't have access to after his Presidency?

His fans just don't see it.
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Were on about the Russia claims remember 🙄
 
JJpool said:
Were on about the Russia claims remember 🙄
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You mentioned Trump, but I now realise you mean the Russian blackmail/funding claims about him.

His blocking of help for Ukraine for months only helps one nation, is all I'd say about that.
 
Wizaard said:
You mentioned Trump, but I now realise you mean the Russian blackmail/funding claims about him.

His blocking of help for Ukraine for months only helps one nation, is all I'd say about that.
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Although, despite his media coverage, in his time he didn't actually go to war with anyone did he? Unlike some others who were in power.

Anyway am not that bothered here about almost that, only posting an interesting interview with Mr Banks given what he said about Nigel and seeing as he knows him well and what might happen if he did come back.

The Tories already look in bad trouble, but that could be the extinction event...
 
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