Shit happens....literally

[1966_and_all_that]

And so the fag end of this failed Tory project continues. Today's news is about the state of Britain's sewerage system. The BBC reports:
"Sewage spills into England's rivers and seas by water companies more than doubled last year. According to the Environment Agency there were 3.6 million hours of spills compared to 1.75 million hours in 2022. Water UK, the industry body for sewerage companies, said it was 'unacceptable' but the record levels were due to heavy rain." [my bold font]. Heavy rain?! This is the lamest excuse since the railway was scuppered by leaves on the tracks. Environmentalists are saying that these spills should only happen in exceptional weather conditions. Even the Environment Agency is saying that "heavy rainfall does not affect water companies' responsibility to manage storm overflows in line with legal requirements."

The BBC itself, conducted an investigation in 2023 that, they say, shows how "Three major water companies illegally discharged sewage hundreds of times last year on days when it was not raining...The practice, known as "dry spilling", is banned because it can lead to higher concentrations of sewage in waterways. Thames, Wessex and Southern Water appear to have collectively released sewage in dry spills for 3,500 hours in 2022 - in breach of their permits. Water UK, the industry body, said the spills 'should be investigated'. The BBC requested the same data from the other water companies in England, which said they could not respond due to being under an Environment Agency (EA) criminal investigation." An early estimate of the most recent Environment Agency's figures (for 2023), suggest that total discharges from the 14,000 storm overflows owned by English water companies that release untreated sewage into rivers and coastal waters increased by 59% to 477,972, making 2023 the worst year for sewage spills.

Now these are failures of the privatised water companies, not the Government per se. That said, the Government is responsible for the regulatory framework and for setting the national, strategic objectives of the industry as a whole. In this regard the Government has clearly failed to hold the industry to account.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

And so the fag end of this failed Tory project continues. Today's news is about the state of Britain's sewerage system. The BBC reports:
"Sewage spills into England's rivers and seas by water companies more than doubled last year. According to the Environment Agency there were 3.6 million hours of spills compared to 1.75 million hours in 2022.Water UK, the industry body for sewerage companies, said it was 'unacceptable' but the record levels were due to heavy rain." [my bold font]. Heavy rain?! This is the lamest excuse since the railway was scuppered by leaves on the tracks. Environmentalists are saying that these spills should only happen in exceptional weather conditions. Even the Environment Agency is saying that "heavy rainfall does not affect water companies' responsibility to manage storm overflows in line with legal requirements."

The BBC itself, conducted an investigation in 2023 that, they say, shows how "Three major water companies illegally discharged sewage hundreds of times last year on days when it was not raining...The practice, known as "dry spilling", is banned because it can lead to higher concentrations of sewage in waterways. Thames, Wessex and Southern Water appear to have collectively released sewage in dry spills for 3,500 hours in 2022 - in breach of their permits. Water UK, the industry body, said the spills 'should be investigated'. The BBC requested the same data from the other water companies in England, which said they could not respond due to being under an Environment Agency (EA) criminal investigation." An early estimate of the most recent Environment Agency's figures (for 2023), suggest that total discharges from the 14,000 storm overflows owned by English water companies that release untreated sewage into rivers and coastal waters increased by 59% to 477,972, making 2023 the worst year for sewage spills.

Now these are failures of the privatised water companies, not the Government per se. That said, the Government is responsible for the regulatory framework and for setting the national, strategic objectives of the industry as a whole. In this regard the Government has clearly failed to hold the industry to account.

It was only about three years ago that an investment management company was sending me notices to get in on UK utilities because the share price was significantly undervalued. Water utilities were a specific point of interest with Thames Water in particular showing potential very high returns.

The failures of the water companies and the rest of the utilities in my opinion is that they cannot be profitised the way the markets need them to be profitised. In order to be attractive to the markets, and raise the capital from private sources (the way government privatisation is supposed to, or was claimed to function) they have to function in line with the markets, which creates a cycle of degradation in infrastructure and a continual focus on the share price, and hance bottom line. Customers have to be gouged, infrastucture investment has to be reduced to the minimum. These sorts of incidents will only get worse.

 

[Newholland]

And so the fag end of this failed Tory project continues. Today's news is about the state of Britain's sewerage system. The BBC reports:
"Sewage spills into England's rivers and seas by water companies more than doubled last year. According to the Environment Agency there were 3.6 million hours of spills compared to 1.75 million hours in 2022.Water UK, the industry body for sewerage companies, said it was 'unacceptable' but the record levels were due to heavy rain." [my bold font]. Heavy rain?! This is the lamest excuse since the railway was scuppered by leaves on the tracks. Environmentalists are saying that these spills should only happen in exceptional weather conditions. Even the Environment Agency is saying that "heavy rainfall does not affect water companies' responsibility to manage storm overflows in line with legal requirements."

The BBC itself, conducted an investigation in 2023 that, they say, shows how "Three major water companies illegally discharged sewage hundreds of times last year on days when it was not raining...The practice, known as "dry spilling", is banned because it can lead to higher concentrations of sewage in waterways. Thames, Wessex and Southern Water appear to have collectively released sewage in dry spills for 3,500 hours in 2022 - in breach of their permits. Water UK, the industry body, said the spills 'should be investigated'. The BBC requested the same data from the other water companies in England, which said they could not respond due to being under an Environment Agency (EA) criminal investigation." An early estimate of the most recent Environment Agency's figures (for 2023), suggest that total discharges from the 14,000 storm overflows owned by English water companies that release untreated sewage into rivers and coastal waters increased by 59% to 477,972, making 2023 the worst year for sewage spills.

Now these are failures of the privatised water companies, not the Government per se. That said, the Government is responsible for the regulatory framework and for setting the national, strategic objectives of the industry as a whole. In this regard the Government has clearly failed to hold the industry to account.

Very concerning and unacceptable... to save me looking ( I’m lazy that way) how does the next government propose to solve this issue quickly?

 

[Jaffa_The_Hut]

And people often ask me why wild Salmon no longer return to our rivers in the numbers they used to.

 

[Newholland]

And people often ask me why wild Salmon no longer return to our rivers in the numbers they used to.

... because they’ve got wise to being yanked out the water by anglers ..

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Very concerning and unacceptable... to save me looking ( I’m lazy that way) how does the next government propose to solve this issue quickly?

It won't be able to solve it quickly. That's another problem it will be landed with. Even so, it will act quickly to stop the water companies breaking the law on spilling. Labour plans to put the water industry under “special measures” to end the sewage crisis once and for all. Expanding the regulatory powers of Ofwat, water bosses who fail to meet high environmental standards on sewage pollution will be met with significant sanctions, including a ban on senior managers taking their bonuses, until their illegal spillage activities are stopped and measures put in place to significantly reduce the polluting of rivers and coasts.

 

[Jaffa_The_Hut]

... because they’ve got wise to being yanked out the water by anglers ..

If only that was true.

Seriously not caught a Salmon for 4 years now previously I averaged anything from 1-6 a year.
The fish are simply not returning the Lune and Ribble last season recorded their worst ever Salmon fish returns same for Sea Trout as well.

 

[Wizaard]

If only that was true.

Seriously not caught a Salmon for 4 years now previously I averaged anything from 3-6 a year.
The fish are simply not returning the Lune and Ribble last season recorded their worst ever Salmon fish returns same for Sea Trout as well.

Seals as a protected species are eating them all.

 

[Jaffa_The_Hut]

Seals as a protected species are eating them all.

But seals have been around for as long as us so why the sudden massive drop in fish returns?

 

[1966_and_all_that]

If only that was true.

Seriously not caught a Salmon for 4 years now previously I averaged anything from 1-6 a year.
The fish are simply not returning the Lune and Ribble last season recorded their worst ever Salmon fish returns same for Sea Trout as well.

When I used to work in St. Annes I'd go into Lytham regularly and got used to seeing wild, Ribble-caught salmon on sale at Lanigans.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

Very concerning and unacceptable... to save me looking ( I’m lazy that way) how does the next government propose to solve this issue quickly?

Needs to be bought back under national control. The problem with that is the fundamental incompetence of government at a political administration level. Some form of national control that side steps government with a legislative remit for supply security, sustainability and actual efficiency rather than financial efficiency

 

[Bend it like Suddick]

But seals have been around for as long as us so why the sudden massive drop in fish returns?

Obese seals

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Needs to be bought back under national control. The problem with that is the fundamental incompetence of government at a political administration level. Some form of national control that side steps government with a legislative remit for supply security, sustainability and actual efficiency rather than financial efficiency

This takes us onto a wider discussion about what the future public ownership of national infrastructures should look like. If the senior executives currently working in the water companies are experts in their field - it's hard to believe that right now - then there's no reason that they can't continue to be employed in a regionally structured industry (as it currently is), whilst working to a strategy for water and sewerage provision developed and run by an over-arching public corporation.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Obese seals

....would be an easy catch for sharks and whales.

 

[Newholland]

It won't be able to solve it quickly. That's another problem it will be landed with. Even so, it will act quickly to stop the water companies breaking the law on spilling. Labour plans to put the water industry under “special measures” to end the sewage crisis once and for all. Expanding the regulatory powers of Ofwat, water bosses who fail to meet high environmental standards on sewage pollution will be met with significant sanctions, including a ban on senior managers taking their bonuses, until their illegal spillage activities are stopped and measures put in place to significantly reduce the polluting of rivers and coasts.

Agriculture... field run off... is the largest cause of waterway pollution... quite rightly since leaving the EU the EA are ramping up pressure on the farming industry to improve things... new legislation for animal waste storage is however crippling a business like mine... grants are available but nigh on impossible to get... don’t even get me started on fcuking planning... I’ve now spent £10000 trying to meet the mind blowing requirement to put plans in... trying to do right thing in this country is literally soul destroying..

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Agriculture... field run off... is the largest cause of waterway pollution... quite rightly since leaving the EU the EA are ramping up pressure on the farming industry to improve things... new legislation for animal waste storage is however crippling a business like mine... grants are available but nigh on impossible to get... don’t even get me started on fcuking planning... I’ve now spent £10000 trying to meet the mind blowing requirement to put plans in... trying to do right thing in this country is literally soul destroying..

Good post Newholland. I would imagine the NFU is busy lobbying the Government over this matter?

 

[traffordtang]

Very concerning and unacceptable... to save me looking ( I’m lazy that way) how does the next government propose to solve this issue quickly?

The next government shouldn’t have to be solving the issue. It’s the responsibility of the current government under whose watch things have got considerably worse.

 

[Sooty59]

It seems we've not progressed very far from chucking shit out of the front door. The Victorians made a giant leap in the right direction. But unfortunately we've failed to keep up with improvements & costly ones too, privatisation clearly puts shareholders first & as the population has increased actually almost doubled there's a lot more shit to get rid of. This will take some solving & undoubtedly cost us more in water rates hopefully to fund a better system & not pay dividends that are unwarranted.

 

[Newholland]

Good post Newholland. I would imagine the NFU is busy lobbying the Government over this matter?

Too much nepotism in that organisation for my liking... a small tenant farmer don’t carry much weight... plus I don’t shake hands with my trouser leg rolled up..

 

[Tangerinemoss]

Obese seals

Immigrant seals, coming over here eating all our salmon

 

[Tangerinemoss]

I understand Thames Water, one of the biggest polluters in the country, is on the verge of Admin and is discussing with the Governmnet a huge bail out.

Now, if you want a private business, fine, but when it fails, it should be the shareholders who take the hit, not Joe and Joanna Public.

The other wee fact I came across is how many of the OFWAT staff are ex water company, and how many senior OFWAT staff go onto jobs with the water companies. It's fixed and we pay for sewage in our rivers and seas.

 

[Newholland]

I understand Thames Water, one of the biggest polluters in the country, is on the verge of Admin and is discussing with the Governmnet a huge bail out.

Now, if you want a private business, fine, but when it fails, it should be the shareholders who take the hit, not Joe and Joanna Public.

The other wee fact I came across is how many of the OFWAT staff are ex water company, and how many senior OFWAT staff go onto jobs with the water companies. It's fixed and we pay for sewage in our rivers and seas.

If you ask me .. the whole industry stinks and is going down the pan...

 

[BigHandsOliverKahn]

But seals have been around for as long as us so why the sudden massive drop in fish returns?

You were warned Brexit would lead to this. The evidence was all there previously. The British Government have only ever looked after the environment when forced to by the EU. It was inevitable they would relax restrictions again and the environment would suffer.

 

[Jaffa_The_Hut]

You were warned Brexit would lead to this. The evidence was all there previously. The British Government have only ever looked after the environment when forced to by the EU. It was inevitable they would relax restrictions again and the environment would suffer.

Yer let’s blame Brexit.

The Salmon have obviously all decided to go up the French German and Dutch rivers.

 

[CCFskiver]

If you ask me .. the whole industry stinks and is going down the pan...

Sounds like they've all got their snouts in the trough.

 

[seasideone]

I understand Thames Water, one of the biggest polluters in the country, is on the verge of Admin and is discussing with the Governmnet a huge bail out.

Now, if you want a private business, fine, but when it fails, it should be the shareholders who take the hit, not Joe and Joanna Public.

The other wee fact I came across is how many of the OFWAT staff are ex water company, and how many senior OFWAT staff go onto jobs with the water companies. It's fixed and we pay for sewage in our rivers and seas.

Shareholders will lose out, as in this situation the government would take a very large percentage (if not all) of the shares - therefore diluting every one else.

It’s a RBS scenario.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

This takes us onto a wider discussion about what the future public ownership of national infrastructures should look like. If the senior executives currently working in the water companies are experts in their field - it's hard to believe that right now - then there's no reason that they can't continue to be employed in a regionally structured industry (as it currently is), whilst working to a strategy for water and sewerage provision developed and run by an over-arching public corporation.

and that conversation just cannot happen in the current political climate or business / economic situation.

Certainly at the top end of the company I seriously doubt there will be actual industry expertise, there will be general management experience and lots of MBA's (and little management capability beyond financial and administative function). It always surprises me (well it doesnt really anymore, i just live in hope) just how far down the management structure of big corporates and governments you have to go to get firstly; people with actual management skills and / or expertise.

I've been listening to / watching the post office enquiry which clearly shows malfeance allied to gross incompetence at senior management levels (and downwards) of: a) several government institutions, b) a global corporation and c) the systems of operation for financial management, justice, and accountability. My guess (and my general experience) is that the majority of large corporations will be / are run in exactly the same way as The Post Office. They are almost all run at the precipice of failure / collapse, in order to maximise market expectations, which seems to be what is taught in most MBA's in one aspect or another.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

I understand Thames Water, one of the biggest polluters in the country, is on the verge of Admin and is discussing with the Governmnet a huge bail out.

Now, if you want a private business, fine, but when it fails, it should be the shareholders who take the hit, not Joe and Joanna Public.

The other wee fact I came across is how many of the OFWAT staff are ex water company, and how many senior OFWAT staff go onto jobs with the water companies. It's fixed and we pay for sewage in our rivers and seas.

Same with all the utilities, and energy companies, and tech companies and and and . . . . . . . . . . .; a revolving door between industry and so called oversight. Then you get the revolving door of industry and government appointees.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

Shareholders will lose out, as in this situation the government would take a very large percentage (if not all) of the shares - therefore diluting every one else.

It’s a RBS scenario.

Then the big wealth management and investment funds and individual fund managers could be held to account; the company sending me reccomendations for UK water utilities was based on data so flawed that it was criminally irresponsible in my opinion.

 

[seasideone]

Then the big wealth management and investment funds and individual fund managers could be held to account; the company sending me reccomendations for UK water utilities was based on data so flawed that it was criminally irresponsible in my opinion.

Quite possibly.

One thing I have learnt in my investing career, is that you have to be ultra careful where you get ideas and information from - as many don’t have a Scooby.

If you are serious about your money, then learn how to do it yourself.

…as no fund manager cares as much as you do!

 

[1966_and_all_that]

and that conversation just cannot happen in the current political climate or business / economic situation.

Certainly at the top end of the company I seriously doubt there will be actual industry expertise, there will be general management experience and lots of MBA's (and little management capability beyond financial and administative function). It always surprises me (well it doesnt really anymore, i just live in hope) just how far down the management structure of big corporates and governments you have to go to get firstly; people with actual management skills and / or expertise.

I've been listening to / watching the post office enquiry which clearly shows malfeance allied to gross incompetence at senior management levels (and downwards) of: a) several government institutions, b) a global corporation and c) the systems of operation for financial management, justice, and accountability. My guess (and my general experience) is that the majority of large corporations will be / are run in exactly the same way as The Post Office. They are almost all run at the precipice of failure / collapse, in order to maximise market expectations, which seems to be what is taught in most MBA's in one aspect or another.

You're pushing at an open door with me in that post. I don't disagree with any of it. NBAs have a lot to answer for.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Shareholders will lose out, as in this situation the government would take a very large percentage (if not all) of the shares - therefore diluting every one else.

It’s a RBS scenario.

Whereas since 1989 they've been coining it.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

Quite possibly.

One thing I have learnt in my investing career, is that you have to be ultra careful where you get ideas and information from - as many don’t have a Scooby.

If you are serious about your money, then learn how to do it yourself.

…as no fund manager cares as much as you do!

The whole financial investment sector is based upon the general population not having a scooby, it wouldnt exist otherwise. I'd also bet that 99% of the people in the industry dont have a scooby either, if they did the 2008 financial collapse would not have happened, or the dot ccom crash, or the bio tech crash or the 95(ish) property crash.

fund managers dont have to care because they get paid not matter what.

 

[seasideone]

The whole financial investment sector is based upon the general population not having a scooby, it wouldnt exist otherwise. I'd also bet that 99% of the people in the industry dont have a scooby either, if they did the 2008 financial collapse would not have happened, or the dot ccom crash, or the bio tech crash or the 95(ish) property crash.

fund managers dont have to care because they get paid not matter what.

100% true - and hence why I got myself a proper financial education when I sold my business, and have always managed my own money.

I think the game changer for me is, I have passed it on to my son who is 22 and has loads of investments that are doing well.

If I have had that at that age - I would be far better off than I am now.

If anyone is reading this I can highly recommend a book called - Rich Dad, Poor Dad - it explains the difference of having a financial education against not.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

I understand Thames Water, one of the biggest polluters in the country, is on the verge of Admin and is discussing with the Governmnet a huge bail out.

Now, if you want a private business, fine, but when it fails, it should be the shareholders who take the hit, not Joe and Joanna Public.

The other wee fact I came across is how many of the OFWAT staff are ex water company, and how many senior OFWAT staff go onto jobs with the water companies. It's fixed and we pay for sewage in our rivers and seas.

What your experience in Scotland? Is Scottish Water just as bad?

 

[seasideone]

Whereas since 1989 they've been coining it.

No idea what dividends they paid, but lots of people will have bought shares closer to now.

They will lose probably everything they invested.

I don’t feel sorry for them as investments go up and down - it was their choice!

 

[seasideone]

What your experience in Scotland? Is Scottish Water just as bad?

Utilities is a mugs game for me now globally.

In general…..

Governments encourage investment
People cannot afford the price when it’s set at market value, especially when the return on investment needs to be paid.
Governments set a price less than what the company needs.

You can work out the rest!

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Utilities is a mugs game for me now globally.

In general…..

Governments encourage investment
People cannot afford the price when it’s set at market value, especially when the return on investment needs to be paid.
Governments set a price less than what the company needs.

You can work out the rest!

Naive question. I always recall that at the initial sale of UK utilities, the rush for shares pushed their price up considerably. Despite (or because they were), being under-priced initially.

 

[Newholland]

and that conversation just cannot happen in the current political climate or business / economic situation.

Certainly at the top end of the company I seriously doubt there will be actual industry expertise, there will be general management experience and lots of MBA's (and little management capability beyond financial and administative function). It always surprises me (well it doesnt really anymore, i just live in hope) just how far down the management structure of big corporates and governments you have to go to get firstly; people with actual management skills and / or expertise.

I've been listening to / watching the post office enquiry which clearly shows malfeance allied to gross incompetence at senior management levels (and downwards) of: a) several government institutions, b) a global corporation and c) the systems of operation for financial management, justice, and accountability. My guess (and my general experience) is that the majority of large corporations will be / are run in exactly the same way as The Post Office. They are almost all run at the precipice of failure / collapse, in order to maximise market expectations, which seems to be what is taught in most MBA's in one aspect or another.

In my, albeit, limited experience…the best managers have worked at all levels of a business to gain a wealth of knowledge…not just a fancy degree …I know there are obvious caveats to this….but I think the general principle holds.

 

[seasideone]

Naive question. I always recall that at the initial sale of UK utilities, the rush for shares pushed their price up considerably. Despite (or because they were), being under-priced initially.

Something is only worth want someone is prepared to pay.

…and there are plenty of mugs out there.

I also think, people think the stock market is rational - it’s the exact opposite though.

I believe in Warren Buffetts beliefs when it comes to investing.

Buy something that’s worth a quid and pay 50p for it.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Something is only worth want someone is prepared to pay.

…and there are plenty of mugs out there.

I also think, people think the stock market is rational - it’s the exact opposite though.

I believe in Warren Buffetts beliefs when it comes to investing.

Buy something that’s worth a quid and pay 50p for it.

I am very familiar with your opening statement. It is something with which I simultaneously agree with you whilst rejecting completely.

Value is not allocated in money alone.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

In my, albeit, limited experience…the best managers have worked at all levels of a business to gain a wealth of knowledge…not just a fancy degree …I know there are obvious caveats to this….but I think the general principle holds.

The best managers might have worked at all levels and gained the appropriate experience and expertse, the problem is that those types of people dont make up management class, there is often a specific disregard of industry expertise for senior management positions. If there is a general principle it is that senior management types (at big institutional corporations) tend to fail upwards.

 

[seasideone]

I am very familiar with your opening statement. It is something with which I simultaneously agree with you whilst rejecting completely.

Value is not allocated in money alone.

You can reject it if you like thats fine - I never used the term value - I used the term worth.

It’s completely true that some people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

However, we are talking about the stock market where everything has a price (you could argue not to use the words value or worth) - but it has a price.

So the more people who want to buy something, the higher the price goes.

 

[Newholland]

The best managers might have worked at all levels and gained the appropriate experience and expertse, the problem is that those types of people dont make up management class, there is often a specific disregard of industry expertise for senior management positions. If there is a general principle it is that senior management types (at big institutional corporations) tend to fail upwards.

Yep... can agree with that.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

You can reject it if you like thats fine - I never used the term value - I used the term worth.

It’s incompletely true that some people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

However, we are talking about the stock market where everything has a price (you could argue not to use the words value or worth) - but it has a price.

So the more people who want to buy something, the higher the price goes.

Got the basic economics - tick.
Worth/value....semantics
Incompletely?.....new word of the day!

 

[1966_and_all_that]

The best managers might have worked at all levels and gained the appropriate experience and expertse, the problem is that those types of people dont make up management class, there is often a specific disregard of industry expertise for senior management positions. If there is a general principle it is that senior management types (at big institutional corporations) tend to fail upwards.

The Peter principle.

 

[seasideone]

Got the basic economics - tick.
Worth/value....semantics
Incompletely?.....new word of the day!

Auto bloody correct - changed to completely

 

[Costero Poderoso]

Something is only worth want someone is prepared to pay.

…and there are plenty of mugs out there.

I also think, people think the stock market is rational - it’s the exact opposite though.

I believe in Warren Buffetts beliefs when it comes to investing.

Buy something that’s worth a quid and pay 50p for it.

Ill second 66AAT. The initial statement is correct and fundamentally flawed at the same time. Perception of value (in moetary terms anyway) is viral, if enough people believe then the value is extractable, however its only extractable for a small minority.

its a very true statement that the markets are not rational. however its not irrationality that drives the markets but faith in the market's rationality, and the presuppositions inherent in that faith.

if you are in Warren buffets position then almost anything you buy at 50p can be turned into a quid in the not too distant future because the markets simply react to him and other major investors. Financial regulations underpin that benefit as well.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

You can reject it if you like thats fine - I never used the term value - I used the term worth.

It’s completely true that some people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

However, we are talking about the stock market where everything has a price (you could argue not to use the words value or worth) - but it has a price.

So the more people who want to buy something, the higher the price goes.

value and worth are the same thing, its the verb and noun. semantics

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Ill second 66AAT. The initial statement is correct and fundamentally flawed at the same time. Perception of value (in moetary terms anyway) is viral, if enough people believe then the value is extractable, however its only extractable for a small minority.

its a very true statement that the markets are not rational. however its not irrationality that drives the markets but faith in the market's rationality, and the presuppositions inherent in that faith.

if you are in Warren buffets position then almost anything you buy at 50p can be turned into a quid in the not too distant future because the markets simply react to him and other major investors. Financial regulations underpin that benefit as well.

Re. your last statement, isn't the whole futures market based on that....or am I just thinking of a bull market?