Should the EU ban Russian oil?

tommytwojags

tommytwojags

Well-known member
The EU is desperately seeking to engineer an EU-wide ban on Russian oil exports, but with Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria opposing an oil embargo it is currently failing to reach any kind of agreement. According to the EC President, the key to success is solidarity with Ukraine and unity in the European Union. So not much prospect at all then.

The issue to be resolved is whether an EU ban on Russian oil will have any positive effect. Since the war in Ukraine began, Russia's oil revenue has risen by 50%. A European ban would not only seriously damage European countries but would push up the oil price further and actually increase Russia's revenue with lower production. A win-win for Putin, but a nightmare for European consumers.

So, should Europe be concerned about banning oil supplies from Russia?
 
tommytwojags said:
The EU is desperately seeking to engineer an EU-wide ban on Russian oil exports, but with Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria opposing an oil embargo it is currently failing to reach any kind of agreement. According to the EC President, the key to success is solidarity with Ukraine and unity in the European Union. So not much prospect at all then.

The issue to be resolved is whether an EU ban on Russian oil will have any positive effect. Since the war in Ukraine began, Russia's oil revenue has risen by 50%. A European ban would not only seriously damage European countries but would push up the oil price further and actually increase Russia's revenue with lower production. A win-win for Putin, but a nightmare for European consumers.

So, should Europe be concerned about banning oil supplies from Russia?
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Not our concern. We cut them off, remember?
 
tommytwojags said:
The EU is desperately seeking to engineer an EU-wide ban on Russian oil exports, but with Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria opposing an oil embargo it is currently failing to reach any kind of agreement. According to the EC President, the key to success is solidarity with Ukraine and unity in the European Union. So not much prospect at all then.

The issue to be resolved is whether an EU ban on Russian oil will have any positive effect. Since the war in Ukraine began, Russia's oil revenue has risen by 50%. A European ban would not only seriously damage European countries but would push up the oil price further and actually increase Russia's revenue with lower production. A win-win for Putin, but a nightmare for European consumers.

So, should Europe be concerned about banning oil supplies from Russia?
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ttj can you clarify the 50%. When I was looking it was 100%, which was a while back. Therefore if revenue has started to decrease to 50% you could argue that the buying ban is working, bearing in mind the 100% was an artificially high reactionary price.
 
Wizaard said:
Not our concern. We cut them off, remember?
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Yes indeed. The UK can make a unilateral decision on this, but what about the rest of Europe?
fcblackpool said:
ttj can you clarify the 50%. When I was looking it was 100%, which was a while back. Therefore if revenue has started to decrease to 50% you could argue that the buying ban is working, bearing in mind the 100% was an artificially high reactionary price.
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Russia’s oil revenues are up 50% on pre-invasion/pre-sanction levels.
 
Wizaard said:
Because prices have doubled?
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Prices could double again if the EU bans Russian oil. In other words, Russia could lose half of its customers but earn the same revenue by producing half the oil. Putin would no doubt be happy with that but what about European consumers?
 
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Like with many other things, the EU should have a two-tier system where some countries press on and late adopters can delay implementation until they're ready and willing. Unfortunately, Brussels is only interested in the dogma of 'unity' which appears to supercede everything else.

As for prices, they may rise in the short term but, once the EU stops buying, oil revenues will be drastically cut in the longer term and it will be basically India and China funding Russia which shouldn't overly concern Europeans.

My issue with sanctions is not applying them in the first place but how will they be taken off. What criteria should be met and who gets to make the demands from a post-Putin Russia? A Russia that believes it's trying to do the right thing and getting no return from the West is more dangerous than this one. Economic pain inflicted from outside was one of Germany's and Japan's reasons for WW2.
 
tommytwojags said:
And prices could double again if the EU bans Russian oil. In other words, Russia could lose half of its customers but earn the same revenue by producing half the oil. Putin would no doubt be happy with that but what about European consumers?
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This is where Governments should be doing more. There's nothing to stop them reducing the 80% cut they get from fuel. Stop Russian imports, get Newcastle United to produce more and stop the price going mad.

All within their power.
 
Kip said:
Like with many other things, the EU should have a two-tier system where some countries press on and late adopters can delay implementation until they're ready and willing. Unfortunately, Brussels is only interested in the dogma of 'unity' which appears to supercede everything else.
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The problem here is that once the oil enters the EU single market, there's no way to stop it moving to any other member state, so an outer circle of one is enough to defeat the whole sanctions regime.
 
I can't believe you've all still got your knickers in a twist over this nonsense. Have you not all moved on to monkeypox yet?
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
The EU have struck an agreement that bans two thirds of Russian oil. What an amazing show of diplomacy and negotiation between so many countries. Compare that to the Boris style dictatorship of lies that we now suffer instead.
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So a third of Russian oil is still being bought and coming in to the EU that’s showing great solidarity.
I bet Putin is laughing his cock off at this, at least Boris had the balls to ban it full stop something the vast majority of the EU leaders want to do.
 
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Jaffa_The_Hut said:
So a third of Russian oil is still being bought and coming in to the EU that’s showing great solidarity.
I bet Putin is laughing his cock off at this, at least Boris had the balls to ban it full stop something the vast majority of the EU leaders want to do.
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Nothing on gas either
 
Fuel prices hit new high today after the EU announcement. Other oil producers around the world need to be pressed to step up.
 
The increased revenues are linked to higher prices and a genreal increase in demand compared to the last couple of years. Russia is selling its crude at a major discount to China and India, whilst some of the Central European countries - Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia etc - can’t access much crude without the Drubzha pipeline that supplies Russian stuff. You also won’t have seen this on the news but there’s more civil war/unrest in Libya that’s taken 500k barrels per day off the global market. Plus the US has actually done very little to help global supply other than release strategic reserves. The number of rigs in the key US shale fields is still well below pre-pandemic levels. The general problem being that oil majors have focused on shareholders getting dividends from profits rather than reinvesting in new operations.

It will take time for EU countries to make the switch to alternative supplies and it also needs other suppliers to step up and assist. It’s not just about availability but the logistics of getting the stuff from source to refineries. Fine if you’re coastal with ports - Rotterdam for example - less fine if you’re inland and landlocked.

Fwiw, my company expects Brent to rise further in the short term.
 
Jaffa_The_Hut said:
So a third of Russian oil is still being bought and coming in to the EU that’s showing great solidarity.
I bet Putin is laughing his cock off at this, at least Boris had the balls to ban it full stop something the vast majority of the EU leaders want to do.
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We buy only 4% of our oil from Russia so not so difficult to do.
Incidentally how much of our goods are imported from China? China uses Russian oil and will simply buy up any excess from Russia. Maybe if we really want to show solidarity we should ban all goods made in China or any country which uses Russian oil from coming into the UK. Hmm not so easy, just like it’s not so easy for countries who rely heavily on Russian oil to just stop using it especially if other oil producing countries don’t massively increase their output.
 
Jaffa_The_Hut said:
So a third of Russian oil is still being bought and coming in to the EU that’s showing great solidarity.
I bet Putin is laughing his cock off at this, at least Boris had the balls to ban it full stop something the vast majority of the EU leaders want to do.
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90% actually, and the remaining 10% is a temporary measure.
 
The EU actually did something not dissimilar to what I suggested yesterday. Not sure it's 'amazing' but at least it keeps the ball rolling.
 
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