Stock Market

GrahamwantshisOates said:
Ocado now up over 20% in a couple or so days. Nice profit.
Maybe look at Vodafone soon as the amount of calls whilst we are in isolation!

There may be a rebound with travel stocks tomorrow as they announce bailing them out of the crisis.
May close my shorts and reverse in the morning
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TUI and Carnival up over 30% in last couple days as I predicted and nice profits. Hope someone took my advise. This rise is only in hope and we will see falls again. Take your profits today!
 
Good calls Graham. I won’t be following any of your ‘tips’ as have no unspoken for cash, but I am sure others will enjoy this! A bit of excitement in hard times!
PS my nephew is into this, and reckons Eddie Stobart could be a good tip for a while, any views?
 
On an aside, I see the banks etc., didn't pass on the rate cut when it went down to 0.25% which the BofE were not happy about and they are hoping the new decrease will mean they will pass it on to customers.

I was looking at how the banks, lenders and credit card companies are going to help customers in these difficult times. i mean we bailed them out when they were in shit street over 10 years ago. So what were my findings? Mortgage holiday for 3 months, other than that the square root of fuck all. Banks are still going togo ahead with their 40% interest charges on overdrafts, Lenders still expect payment with no change in the interest rate or a holiday or a freeze until this is over and so on. So they are just showing their true colours yet again, when you hear the term bank robbers they got the perpetrators the wrong way round.
 
At this time and not just in this area we need firm leadership. Johnson should tell the banks what they are doing to help at this time, just like he should tell pubs and restaurants to close and insurance companies to pay out. If need be he should get emergency powers to get the outcome we need.
The British public bailed out our banks in 2008, now they need to be forced to return the favour. I am sure that most banks are focused on how they can make money out of the current uncertainty.
 
glasshalffull said:
Sounds like the price of oil is collapsing? Stay away from the oil company shares whoever above on this thread was thinking of dabbling! Looks like the Saudis and Russians are grabbing market share?
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Well if I sold now I’d be 29% & 44% up. 😏
Also on Topps Tiles from this morning, but only looking to double my money on that one. I’ll get out if they return to 80p.
 
Here's a bit of background for you on crude.

Demand for crude between now and end of May could be between 4m-10m b/day lower than the same time last year. Why? Because nobody is flying or driving anywhere...

In that same period, Saudi is saying (and there's clearly some brinkmanship in play) that it will increase output to its max level of 12m b/day in order to recapture market share if other nations - Russia and the US - don't agree to unilateral cuts. This could see supply growth peak in Q2 at nearly 16m b/day and bring a crude surplus of around 1 billion b/day.

Most global oil production has operating costs of $20 bl for Brent, so there's still potential for countries to keep pushing out supply. Those with higher cost production may also be countries beholden to oil production to generate cashflow - Venezuela, Iran, Brazil etc...Even the UK will need to push out crude as a means of getting money into the treasury.

My company is forecasting that even as a base-case scenario, crude will hit $10/bl in April or May. How quickly it recovers from that position is entirely dependent on how quickly the world gets back to normal from C19 and how quickly the major oil producing countries can agree on cuts to production.
 
FTSE currently up 6.5% today, Wall street nearly 9%
Noticed the FTSE stabilised at around 5000 for the last few days - have the markets factored in the virus now with a 33% drop?
Is this another dead cat bounce or are we on the way back?
 
Having a great time on the day trading with the large swings.
The rise is with optimism but reality will kick in once again.
Time to short again.
 
GrahamwantshisOates said:
Having a great time on the day trading with the large swings.
The rise is with optimism but reality will kick in once again.
Time to short again.
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As long as you're having a great time, what do other people's financial futures matter?
 
I am sure Simon Sadler is playing a similar game of hedging both ways.

Basil- My pension investments are well down so it’s not all joy for me.

FTSE up 9% on day.
Suckers rally and the big boys are “pumping and dumping” stock.
Wait until reality of the Coronavirus kicks in.
 
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Here's the latest view from my company. This is a forecast so doesn't mean it's gospel, but it's a neutral view with no political or commercial tie-in.

2020 world growth forecast to be lowered by another 1.5% – this means global 'growth' of -0.5% to -1.0% this year. By way of comparison, global growth in 2009 was -1.7%.
We are assuming that the infections peak in the July/August time frame. This means that the biggest quarterly impacts will be in Q2/Q3. The declines in those quarters could be horrific.
Depending on the countries in question, the recovery (in terms of positive growth) will likely start no earlier than the fourth quarter.

As said, this is purely a forecast. Trump seems to be saying that deaths from the economic fallout of a mass slowdown will be greater than deaths from being less draconian in terms of lockdown. That's a big gamble to take...

They have improved the stimulus package though. It was previously $1 trillion and i believe this will now double. That will help in the short-term and probably prevent a worst-case scenario, but whether it's really enough to stop a recession and large-scale unemployment in the US is up for debate. Forecasters are saying unemployment could be between 20-30%. And this is a country that lives on credit and will have been discouraged to save for years due to chronically low interest rates. You have to question the spending power of the masses in this latest cycle.

Of course what is most likely, is that the Fed provides more QE at almost free cost to borrowers. They invest in the 'markets' and this gives a sheen of economic recovery linked to improved portfolios. You have to ask whether this is a system that truly support us many or the few.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
Down another 10% today - that is about 25% in ten days.
Does anyone want to predict where the bottom is?
Are there more bad days to come or is that the end of it? Have the markets now factored in a massive global slowdown and world wide recession? Or is there more to come?
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Well my batch of shares are currently rocketing... outstanding!
 
Bought Marsden ( pubs) on Monday and now doubled.
As mentioned on earlier post, bought the likes of TUI , Carnival, RIo Tinto.
Had a punt on Hurricane energy at 10p last week and sold all now at a tidy profit.
Shorted Next this morning and making a slight loss right now.
 
hertfordseasider said:
On an aside, I see the banks etc., didn't pass on the rate cut when it went down to 0.25% which the BofE were not happy about and they are hoping the new decrease will mean they will pass it on to customers.

I was looking at how the banks, lenders and credit card companies are going to help customers in these difficult times. i mean we bailed them out when they were in shit street over 10 years ago. So what were my findings? Mortgage holiday for 3 months, other than that the square root of fuck all. Banks are still going togo ahead with their 40% interest charges on overdrafts, Lenders still expect payment with no change in the interest rate or a holiday or a freeze until this is over and so on. So they are just showing their true colours yet again, when you hear the term bank robbers they got the perpetrators the wrong way round.
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It has crossed my mind given my mortgage doesn't have that long to run, to take out a loan at 0.1% when it becomes available and pay off the mortgage currently around 0.95%.
 
Wizaard said:
It has crossed my mind given my mortgage doesn't have that long to run, to take out a loan at 0.1% when it becomes available and pay off the mortgage currently around 0.95%.
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Absolutely. Borrow low on a fixed term and invest higher on a fixed term, or more adventurous if you were inclined.

Immoral imho., but then it all is. Didn't some geezer in the EU make , like 100mill this week on the back of these times?
 
London stock markets fell on Thursday after staging a robust recovery in the past two days as investors feared the incoming economic data will cement their worries of a sharp economic slump as the coronavirus crisis hits the entire world.

After posting the biggest two-day percentage gain since the blue-chip index .FTSE was launched in 1984, it dropped 2.6% as heavyweights such as British American Tobacco (BATS.L), Ferguson (FERG.L) and Prudential (PRU.L) traded without entitlement to its latest dividend pay-out.
 
Yep, as I mentioned that it was a “Suckers rally”.
I certainly will wait until we know the true damage this virus has caused globally, before investing for the long term again.
Only good for day trading or short term with such volality.
 
td53 said:
Suspend all this stocks shite and release the traders to do a real days work...

It all baffles me. It's mental how we revere the stock market but it doesn't actually seem to do anything for anyone.
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It generates unit income for your private pension if you have one, which most of us do. The ups and downs are part of it. Just because it all crashes doesn’t mean it’s all bad for everyone in the medium longer term.
 
Now up 4%. The average American household will receive a $1200 windfall.
This may encourage spending in the short term but it is like peeing into the wind.
Wait until this Coronavirus really hits USA big time across all the States.
Unemployment will be huge.
 
Reality will kick in again following further bad news on Coronavirus.
Its on the decline again.

Simon Sadler will be making a killing with these predictable rise and falls.
Good news for us fans.
 
So what would have happened if stock markets around the world were suspended a few weeks back when they were at a high?
Would the economy have ground to halt?
If traders are making some big profits are they doing this in their own right?
Alternatively if they are making these profits for the funds they manage shouldn't we all be quids in?
For the record Simon Sadler is permitted to make as much money as he likes. 😃
 
The problem with a lot of pension funds/ ISA’s is that they are not allowed to short the stock market.Many are only allowed to sell 20% of holding into cash too.
Shorting is considered gambling in the financial fair play rule.
Of course this does not apply to hedge funds as the name implies.
Hedge funds are often guilty of manipulating the markets too.
This recent rally is a “pump and dump” tactic. It makes some think we have reached the bottom and buy back.
Just look at posts on this thread who have mistaken that the worse is over.
Lots will have their fingers burned by these upward movements.

I held my nerve after shorting ”Next” when the price spiked after I placed the trade.I am now in profit.
 
FTSE bumping along at around 5500 for the last few days - is this the new normal with the economic shutdown factored in or do we expect more volatility in the coming days and weeks?
Pound has made a comeback to 1.13 against the Euro from a low of 1.06 a few days back - can we expect mainly gains from here on as the shock has settled down and we are almost bound to get more positive news on how we can tackle the virus in the coming weeks?
 
Wow didn’t realise the crude oil price had increased to over 20% today.
This must be to do with the deal with Russia and Saudi Arabia to reduce production.

I bought hurricane energy at 9.5 ( again) on Monday and up £300 now. Think it will rocket when the markets open in the morning.

Have placed a large trade on Gilead life sciences this morning. They are in advance of developing an inoculation ageist Covid- 19. High risk but it will shoot to the stars if successful
 
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GrahamwantshisOates said:
Simon Sadler would not have made his fortune without having to short at sometime. It is healthy for the stock market and yes “hedge funds”. They hedge both ways.
I will gladly buy shares when the time is right. Bought Ocado a few days ago and watching them fly against the falling market. Just bought Apple ahead of tonight’s Trump speech.
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Profiteering in a time of misery. There's a much shorter and eminently more satisfying name for those who practice such things.
 
Crude will drop again. The Saudis and the Russians are saying they’ve not even spoken to Trump. Refineries all over the world are slashing rates and nobody has actually cut crude production. North Sea Brent was selling at $6 per barrel yesterday. Futures are higher because everyone is applying a big contango on the basis that it will get better quick. I don’t think it will. As per the China thread, that’s the only place where a swift recovery has been seen and who believes anything they say?
 
Wizaard said:
It has crossed my mind given my mortgage doesn't have that long to run, to take out a loan at 0.1% when it becomes available and pay off the mortgage currently around 0.95%.
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Good idea. You are with the Bradford and Bingley presumably? 😁
 
I see some of the most undeserving will benefit. Should be made to give it all to the Nurses!

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s firm stands to make a fortune out of the turmoil caused by the coronaviruscrisis.
The MP owns at least 15 per cent of a company investing in businesses hit by falling share values.
Somerset Capital Management says investors have a “once in a generation” chance of “super normal returns”.
Mr Rees-Mogg stood down as a director of SCM to become Leader of the House of Commons. SCM said it was focusing on clients’ long-term security.
As millions face financial misery, SCM managers are buying into businesses where valuations have tumbled – but should bounce back. Potential gains of 500 per cent are touted.
 
Chishandfips said:
I see some of the most undeserving will benefit. Should be made to give it all to the Nurses!

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s firm stands to make a fortune out of the turmoil caused by the coronaviruscrisis.
The MP owns at least 15 per cent of a company investing in businesses hit by falling share values.
Somerset Capital Management says investors have a “once in a generation” chance of “super normal returns”.
Mr Rees-Mogg stood down as a director of SCM to become Leader of the House of Commons. SCM said it was focusing on clients’ long-term security.
As millions face financial misery, SCM managers are buying into businesses where valuations have tumbled – but should bounce back. Potential gains of 500 per cent are touted.
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The media were very happy to take aim at football players whilst neglecting to mention that most of the cabinet are seriously rich, where is the faux outrage demanding that they give up their salaries?
I have mixed feelings about the above they are just doing what every pension fund will be doing in this situation.
 
FTSE up 2.5% in early trading, seemingly it has stabilised over the last couple of weeks, is this the bottom or will we see some more volatility in the coming weeks and months
 
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