The 19th July

T

Thegoalmachine

Well-known member
God I can’t bloody wait, but on a serious note I hope it will be the end of this daft publishing of figures every day at 5pm. who cares anymore it’s done it’s dusted, it’s time to rejoice👍🏻 Let’s be honest who would want figures every day of how many of us have had a runny nose or the shits 😯
 
Thegoalmachine said:
God I can’t bloody wait, but on a serious note I hope it will be the end of this daft publishing of figures every day at 5pm. who cares anymore it’s done it’s dusted, it’s time to rejoice👍🏻 Let’s be honest who would want figures every day of how many of us have had a runny nose or the shits 😯
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I think everyone has sacked it off more or less now anyway, just open everything.
 
It's going to be a tricky decsions.

26,000 cases today, doubling roughly every 10 days or so from the start of the month, if the trend continues will they really be willing to relax in the face of 100,000 cases per day?

1,720 patients in hospital, doubling roughly every month, so rising less slowly, but what level is acceptable?

Deaths on average 16/day, doubling every 3 - 4 weeks, again what level is acceptable?

I suspect until we see cases going down we may have gone as far as is possible in terms of releasing lockdown.
 
Lost Seasider said:
It's going to be a tricky decsions.

26,000 cases today, doubling roughly every 10 days or so from the start of the month, if the trend continues will they really be willing to relax in the face of 100,000 cases per day?

1,720 patients in hospital, doubling roughly every month, so rising less slowly, but what level is acceptable?

Deaths on average 16/day, doubling every 3 - 4 weeks, again what level is acceptable?

I suspect until we see cases going down we may have gone as far as is possible in terms of releasing lockdown.
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If those doubling times are correct, then I suspect the epidemic/wave would reach a natural end before hospitalisation and death reached a level that risked collapse of the NHS (which is what they seem to have been managing around thus far)…So on that basis I’d expect the modelling would justify the end of lockdown measures on 19th July as planned.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Deaths on average 16/day, doubling every 3 - 4 weeks, again what level is acceptable?

I suspect until we see cases going down we may have gone as far as is possible in terms of releasing lockdown.
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Doubling from 8 to 16 in the last 4 weeks then? That's more than acceptable.

This is all political now. The Government sensed the public mood wasn't right for June but will be more than ready for July. Absolutely zero chance of extending past the 19th imo.

The next challenge is to open up foreign travel, in Europe and the USA which still hasn't approved the AZ vaccine yet.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
If those doubling times are correct, then I suspect the epidemic/wave would reach a natural end before hospitalisation and death reached a level that risked collapse of the NHS (which is what they seem to have been managing around thus far)…So on that basis I’d expect the modelling would justify the end of lockdown measures on 19th July as planned.
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Yes, however there are lots of unknowns.

So far cases have been concentrated in younger age groups, but they are starting to spread up the age range so potentially hospital numbers might start to rise more quickly with deaths following.

Another unknown is that the school terms ends on 23 July, hopefully that'll generate downward pressure on cases, but the effect won't be seen for a couple of weeks.

Maybe it'll be a change of approach, lift restrictions but emphasize personal responsibility, vulnerable groups encouraged to be careful and continue to limit social contact.

As I said it's likely to be a tough decision, and I don't think it's in the bag yet.
 
Kip said:
Doubling from 8 to 16 in the last 4 weeks then? That's more than acceptable.

This is all political now. The Government sensed the public mood wasn't right for June but will be more than ready for July. Absolutely zero chance of extending past the 19th imo.

The next challenge is to open up foreign travel, in Europe and the USA which still hasn't approved the AZ vaccine yet.
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We can open up foreign travel as much as we like Kip, but will other countries make it easy for US to visit them - not that I intend to this year at least - but with high case numbers, no matter the vaccine rollout, will they risk UK travellers visiting without restrictions?
 
Kip said:
Doubling from 8 to 16 in the last 4 weeks then? That's more than acceptable.
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What level is unacceptable?


Kip said:
This is all political now. The Government sensed the public mood wasn't right for June but will be more than ready for July. Absolutely zero chance of extending past the 19th imo.
Click to expand...

I don't believe that for one minute, cases were rising rapidly, the effect on deaths and healthcare was unknown, and I'm sure the PM would've been strongly in favour of releasing restrictions if possible.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Yes, however there are lots of unknowns.

So far cases have been concentrated in younger age groups, but they are starting to spread up the age range so potentially hospital numbers might start to rise more quickly with deaths following.

Another unknown is that the school terms ends on 23 July, hopefully that'll generate downward pressure on cases, but the effect won't be seen for a couple of weeks.

Maybe it'll be a change of approach, lift restrictions but emphasize personal responsibility, vulnerable groups encouraged to be careful and continue to limit social contact.

As I said it's likely to be a tough decision, and I don't think it's in the bag yet.
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I don't have access to the case numbers by age group and, of course, if the rate of increase (doubling) of hospitalisations / deaths were to speed up over the next couple of week, then the Government might have something to think about. As things stand though I can't see any reason why we wouldn't expect to see lockdown lifted as planned.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Yes, however there are lots of unknowns.

So far cases have been concentrated in younger age groups, but they are starting to spread up the age range so potentially hospital numbers might start to rise more quickly with deaths following.

Another unknown is that the school terms ends on 23 July, hopefully that'll generate downward pressure on cases, but the effect won't be seen for a couple of weeks.

Maybe it'll be a change of approach, lift restrictions but emphasize personal responsibility, vulnerable groups encouraged to be careful and continue to limit social contact.

As I said it's likely to be a tough decision, and I don't think it's in the bag yet.
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When this nonsense ends, Lost Seasider will be Lost, because he’ll have nothing to post about anymore as he doesn’t post anything about BFC.


Some people have found their whole identity, purpose and meaning in Covid-19 and they do not want to relinquish it because it will mean having to find another.

The way some are desperately clinging on to it is both sad and amusing.

It's over... Go out and live.

A large % of Covid doomers will convert into 'climate crisis' doomers.
 
Adams Kebab said:
When this nonsense ends, Lost Seasider will be Lost, because he’ll have nothing to post about anymore as he doesn’t post anything about BFC.


Some people have found their whole identity, purpose and meaning in Covid-19 and they do not want to relinquish it because it will mean having to find another.

The way some are desperately clinging on to it is both sad and amusing.

It's over... Go out and live.

A large % of Covid doomers will convert into 'climate crisis' doomers.
Click to expand...

 
Politically, the 19th will be the day when all legal restrictions end, there’s no alternative for the government, even if hospitalisations and deaths increase.
 
Lost Seasider said:
The heatmap is available for England: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
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Thanks for that...

It's interesting actually because if you overlay the heatmap pattern over the progression of the virus back in September / October, then there's quite an obvious difference, insomuch as the progression through the age groups (which happened back in October) appears to have been halted or slowed significantly this time around.

Vaccine is the obvious answer to that as I wouldn't expect there to be any signifcant behavioural changes and, if anything you would have expected that progression to have been much swifter this time around, due to the more transmissible virus.👍
 
We need to stop the testing and only test those that are ill this counting of numbers every day is a load of nonsense.

Two double jabbed that I know have tested positive and are fine not a tap, start living with the virus roll on the 19th.
 
poolseasider said:
We need to stop the testing and only test those that are ill this counting of numbers every day is a load of nonsense.

Two double jabbed that I know have tested positive and are fine not a tap, start living with the virus roll on the 19th.
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Testing is an important tool to control the virus for the time being.... The public / media fixation of case data probably needs to be phased out, but you don't need to stop testing to deal with that.
 
The testing needs to stop all together. They dont even work. The PCR test is not a diagnostic,not my words but the words of the inventor. The lateral flow tests have been recalled by the FDA in America and warned against their use.

www.fda.gov

Stop Innova Medical Group SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test

The FDA has significant concerns that performance of the test has not been adequately established, presenting a risk to health.
www.fda.gov www.fda.gov
nursingnotes.co.uk

US recalls lateral flow tests amid ‘significant’ accuracy concerns

The FDA has instructed US citizens to stop using the tests amid "significant concerns that the performance of the test has not been adequately established, pres
nursingnotes.co.uk nursingnotes.co.uk
www.medicaldevice-network.com

US regulator warns against use of Innova SARS-CoV-2 test

The US FDA has warned the public against the use of Innova Medical Group’s SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test for diagnostic purposes.
www.medicaldevice-network.com www.medicaldevice-network.com

PCR tests are equally as useless at determining live virus and fragments of RNA. When the PCR is run at higher than 35 cycles the false positive rate increases. We are advised to run 50 cycles by the World Health Organisation.

Screenshot-2020-11-02-at-12-15-42.jpg


Screenshot-2020-11-02-at-12-24-43.jpg
 
Old_Laytonian said:
He likes a graph doesn’t he?
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Would you prefer the alternative?
29-06-20217,0424,800,905
28-06-202124,9334,793,863
27-06-202117,7714,768,930
26-06-202115,7244,751,159
25-06-202117,6944,735,435
24-06-202118,2344,717,741
23-06-202117,8714,699,507
22-06-202116,9874,681,636
21-06-202115,9554,664,649
20-06-20219,8734,648,694
19-06-20218,2564,638,821
18-06-202110,0534,630,565
17-06-202110,7664,620,512
16-06-202110,7824,609,746
15-06-202110,5034,598,964
14-06-202110,1094,588,461
13-06-20216,9474,578,352
12-06-20216,1114,571,405
11-06-20217,4454,565,294
10-06-20217,8424,557,849
09-06-20217,9834,550,007
08-06-20217,6684,542,024
07-06-20217,7194,534,356
06-06-20215,4034,526,637
05-06-20214,6204,521,234
04-06-20215,7144,516,614
03-06-20216,0934,510,900
02-06-20216,0514,504,807
01-06-20215,2434,498,756
31-05-20213,8034,493,513
30-05-20213,0994,489,710
29-05-20212,9314,486,611
28-05-20213,4884,483,680
27-05-20213,6354,480,192
26-05-20213,8004,476,557
25-05-20213,2944,472,757
24-05-20213,2304,469,463
23-05-20212,2404,466,233
22-05-20211,9324,463,993
21-05-20212,2914,462,061
20-05-20212,4274,459,770
19-05-20212,7124,457,343
18-05-20212,7054,454,631
17-05-20212,7624,451,926
16-05-20211,8534,449,164
15-05-20211,5804,447,311
14-05-20211,8504,445,731
13-05-20212,0904,443,881
12-05-20212,2284,441,791
11-05-20212,2004,439,563
10-05-20212,6484,437,363
09-05-20212,1684,434,715
08-05-20211,5104,432,547
07-05-20211,8644,431,037
06-05-20212,1584,429,173
05-05-20212,3914,427,015
04-05-20212,4014,424,624
03-05-20211,9744,422,223
02-05-20211,4244,420,249
01-05-20211,3534,418,825
30-04-20211,6994,417,472
29-04-20212,0824,415,773
28-04-20212,3634,413,691
27-04-20212,0604,411,328
26-04-20212,4384,409,268
25-04-20211,9934,406,830
24-04-20211,4634,404,837
23-04-20211,8884,403,374
22-04-20212,2474,401,486
21-04-20212,5374,399,239
20-04-20212,3634,396,702
19-04-20212,5964,394,339
18-04-20212,4344,391,743
17-04-20211,6384,389,309
16-04-20212,1904,387,671
15-04-20212,1864,385,481
14-04-20212,3954,383,295
13-04-20212,3304,380,900
12-04-20212,7074,378,570
11-04-20212,2504,375,863
10-04-20212,2594,373,613
09-04-20212,7814,371,354
08-04-20212,9814,368,573
07-04-20213,0794,365,592
06-04-20213,1164,362,513
05-04-20212,6144,359,397
04-04-20212,2924,356,783
03-04-20212,4064,354,491
02-04-20212,6214,352,085
01-04-20213,4694,349,464
31-03-20213,7644,345,995
30-03-20213,5964,342,231
 
Bottle said:
We can open up foreign travel as much as we like Kip, but will other countries make it easy for US to visit them - not that I intend to this year at least - but with high case numbers, no matter the vaccine rollout, will they risk UK travellers visiting without restrictions?
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I read today that the UK and the EU are co-operating on a mutually acceptable app that will show the vaccination status and dates of last positive test where applicable. This should open up travel to the EU.

The USA could be trickier as they don't appear to acknowledge the AZ vaccine even though its the world's most used vaccine. Given the Canadians primarily seem to be using AZ I'm not sure how that will fit in for the US/Canada border re-opening which is planned to happen late July.

The UK has exclusions from lots of different countries but, really, we're ahead of the curve on this one as the Delta variant will inevitably spread across Europe and North America. We've already gone through the pain and largely come out the other side so countries taking a hard-line now with the UK will almost inevitably see that reciprocated in the coming months when the shoe's on the other foot. It feels political rather than medical at this stage.

Remember as well that the UK hasn't really got more Covid than anyone else - its down to the increased genome testing that we have to recognise variants and the 6 million standard tests a week. If you extrapolate the German tests to our levels their case levels are slightly higher and Spain's is about 3 times higher.
 
Vaccine working well then? Wait till they start with the autumn booster that won't work either.
 
Lost Seasider said:
What level is unacceptable?




I don't believe that for one minute, cases were rising rapidly, the effect on deaths and healthcare was unknown, and I'm sure the PM would've been strongly in favour of releasing restrictions if possible.
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There are people who do things like 'acceptable deaths' for a living - or at least for academic research - but I'm not one of them. Put it in the context of 67 million people and against all the other diseases people are currently dying from often in greater numbers than covid,
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Testing is an important tool to control the virus for the time being.... The public / media fixation of case data probably needs to be phased out, but you don't need to stop testing to deal with that.
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Why we don't test people who have a cold or the Flu in normal years it's utter scaremongering nonsense.
If some found out those figures in years to come the soft arses would lock themselves away.

We need to stop all this TV published data NOW including how many are dying from Covid when your consider that a lot more diseases are currently higher up the death rate than this.
 
poolseasider said:
Why we don't test people who have a cold or the Flu in normal years it's utter scaremongering nonsense.
If some found out those figures in years to come the soft arses would lock themselves away.

We need to stop all this TV published data NOW including how many are dying from Covid when your consider that a lot more diseases are currently higher up the death rate than this.
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I think we have to accept that this isn’t a cold or flu. I appreciate that was a comparison being drawn at the beginning (and one I bought into tbh), but time and information has moved on.

There will be a time when testing will be stopped, but as things stand it seems to me to be the ideal ‘bridge’ between where we are now and where we want to be.

The media focus on the data is a different matter entirely and I tend to agree that it needs to be phased out….
 
Kip said:
we're ahead of the curve on this one as the Delta variant will inevitably spread across Europe and North America.
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15% in Germany, 20% - 25% in Spain, Italy, USA, Portugal now up to 56%. https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/



Kip said:
Remember as well that the UK hasn't really got more Covid than anyone else - its down to the increased genome testing that we have to recognise variants and the 6 million standard tests a week. If you extrapolate the German tests to our levels their case levels are slightly higher and Spain's is about 3 times higher.
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I'm afraid it doesn't work like that, it's the test positivity rate you need to look at, which is slightly lower in Germany than the UK, if their case levels where were you claim they are you'd expect to see substantially higher test positivity rates in Germany.

Spain's TPR% is about 3 times that of the UK, but even then it's not a simple case of multiplying their reported case numbers by that, it's an indication that they're under-detecting cases, but the extent is difficult to judge.

What you really need is the German/Spanish equivalents of our REACT and ONS studies.
 
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