What will America do

Matesrates

Well-known member
When China invades Taiwan, and from what I’ve read, it is when, not if. Will they engage, they’ve said they will, but what are the consequences of that? Who else will be drawn in? I’m sure China has been watching the Ukraine situation and seen that while the west uses strong words and supplies equipment, they’re not willing to go in.
 

Mr Tangerine Man

Well-known member
China have been saying that they will iinvade Taiwan since the 50's. Not saying they won't however. We can't keep bowng down to China and Russia, both countries use fear as strength, Super power Russia have struggled against the Ukraine, they have shown that you can stand up to these bullies. Seeing Taiwan make most of the worlds microchips I can't see the USA letting China have control of that. As Donald Trump said "I have a Red button on my desk and its far bigger than yours.
 
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Wizaard

Well-known member
When China invades Taiwan, and from what I’ve read, it is when, not if. Will they engage, they’ve said they will, but what are the consequences of that? Who else will be drawn in? I’m sure China has been watching the Ukraine situation and seen that while the west uses strong words and supplies equipment, they’re not willing to go in.
Plus an amphibious landing is far more complex logistically than going over land borders. China will be judging the world mood in response to their testing and will back down.
 

BWseasider

Well-known member
I think the lesson China will be taking from Ukraine is that it’s incredibly hard to invade and occupy a country with the capacity to resist. As far as invasions go, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is about as easy a scenario as you can imagine.

A country that borders right next to you, that you surround on 3 sides, mostly completely flat. The fact Russia has completely stalled and taken incredibly high losses would make even the most hawkish Chinese decision-maker pause for thought. Russia also has much more experience of using its armed forces and developing doctrines before this years invasion, something modern China has never done.

If you have all that going for Russia, and they have really struggled, then you have a much tougher task ahead for China, where they need to perform an ambhimbious invasion. As @Wizaard points out, these are incredibly difficult. Probably the hardest thing you can pull off in modern warfare. With the advancement of antiship missiles I’m not entirely sure they’re feasible anymore. Even then once the landing is complete you have to take the island which is densely populated, and where it isn’t densely populated it’s mountainous. Again Ukraine has shown it’s incredibly costly to take cities, and Afghanistan shows how mountains can make occupation efforts a nightmare.

I would say though that Taiwan much is smaller than Afghanistan or Ukraine, which does make things slightly easier but not enough to outweigh the other factors.

I think a realistic scenario is that China would blockade Taiwan rather than try full on invasion, similar to the US in the Cuban missile crisis. I have no clue how the US would react to that. A blockade would be much less costly, and also shows why they’re so keen on building military infrastructure in the sea and claiming islands wherever possible.
 

Matesrates

Well-known member
I think the lesson China will be taking from Ukraine is that it’s incredibly hard to invade and occupy a country with the capacity to resist. As far as invasions go, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is about as easy a scenario as you can imagine.

A country that borders right next to you, that you surround on 3 sides, mostly completely flat. The fact Russia has completely stalled and taken incredibly high losses would make even the most hawkish Chinese decision-maker pause for thought. Russia also has much more experience of using its armed forces and developing doctrines before this years invasion, something modern China has never done.

If you have all that going for Russia, and they have really struggled, then you have a much tougher task ahead for China, where they need to perform an ambhimbious invasion. As @Wizaard points out, these are incredibly difficult. Probably the hardest thing you can pull off in modern warfare. With the advancement of antiship missiles I’m not entirely sure they’re feasible anymore. Even then once the landing is complete you have to take the island which is densely populated, and where it isn’t densely populated it’s mountainous. Again Ukraine has shown it’s incredibly costly to take cities, and Afghanistan shows how mountains can make occupation efforts a nightmare.

I would say though that Taiwan much is smaller than Afghanistan or Ukraine, which does make things slightly easier but not enough to outweigh the other factors.

I think a realistic scenario is that China would blockade Taiwan rather than try full on invasion, similar to the US in the Cuban missile crisis. I have no clue how the US would react to that. A blockade would be much less costly, and also shows why they’re so keen on building military infrastructure in the sea and claiming islands wherever possible.
The blockade makes sense, I doubt they’d want to copy Putins bomb the place to bits method, because Taiwan makes ple of cash with microchips and tech. Again, the question is, what would America do in those circumstances.
 

BigHandsOliverKahn

Well-known member
We have been taken over by China via stealth. They have infiltrated countries in the background all over the world in the past 30 years and made everyone dependent on them due to infrastructure or commodity dependency. Not something that will be very easy to reverse. You can tell by the language now being used by the Chinese Government that it knows it is in a position of strength. Time to stop buying Chinese goods, if that is possible.
 

Thatseasider

Well-known member
With Ji about to make himself leader for life at the party conference, he has more than enough time to pull a Hong Kong on Taiwan and subvert them slowly over the course of decades.

A seaborne military invasion I would argue, would be virtually impossible for China to successfully accomplish.
 

poolseasider

Well-known member
We have been taken over by China via stealth. They have infiltrated countries in the background all over the world in the past 30 years and made everyone dependent on them due to infrastructure or commodity dependency. Not something that will be very easy to reverse. You can tell by the language now being used by the Chinese Government that it knows it is in a position of strength. Time to stop buying Chinese goods, if that is possible.
Good post China are the super power now not the West anymore we need to stop buying their crap and instead of having a draw full of five pound t-shirts have 3 or 4 made in your own country but I wouldn't hold your breath.
 

TheRealKingKenny

Well-known member
I think much the same as the response to Ukraine. Supply them with arms and intelligence but avoid engaging directly. None of the superpowers want to engage directly as the consequences could be so severe.
 

BWseasider

Well-known member
The blockade makes sense, I doubt they’d want to copy Putins bomb the place to bits method, because Taiwan makes ple of cash with microchips and tech. Again, the question is, what would America do in those circumstances.
Not a clue really. It’s incredibly hard to know because it can depend on several factors, like when the blockade would take place, who would be in charge of the US reaction, what would the political climate be? I imagine they would try and circumvent it somehow, maybe with an airlift but that’s probably not feasible given the scale necessary. The USSR backed down from trying to get into Cuba, the US might do the same, it may depend on how much they value the tech industry in Taiwan and if they don’t feel secure with letting the Chinese have it. If that’s the case they may try and risk flouting the blockade and it becomes a standoff of who’s willing to shoot first.

I think if Taiwan didn’t have the domination of the microchip market it has, there wouldn’t be an issue to be honest. They would let it go like we’ve had to with Hong Kong. They would kick up a fuss but wouldn’t risk conflict over it.
 

Whitstabletangerine

Well-known member
The Americans could have a big problem if they decide to take any action against the Chinese over Taiwan, mainly becouse of the geography, 2000 miles from Guam and a good deal distant from their bases in South Korea and Japan, unlike the Russian/Ukraine conflict with the US already in Western Europe.
The advantage is with the Chinese this is their back yard, they can impose sanctions which would cause problems for Taiwan and they could sit it out for some years knowing the US would do little other than equipe Taiwan with weapons.
As for the the USSR backing down over Cuba and installing missiles in the country, it is worth remembering that the deal was for the US to remove it's missiles from Turkey which they did in the following months.
 

Shandypants

Well-known member
We have been taken over by China via stealth. They have infiltrated countries in the background all over the world in the past 30 years and made everyone dependent on them due to infrastructure or commodity dependency. Not something that will be very easy to reverse. You can tell by the language now being used by the Chinese Government that it knows it is in a position of strength. Time to stop buying Chinese goods, if that is possible.
Ditto Russia with gas and oil. The West have very short term strategies both China and Russia have very long term thinking and they've got themselves in a position that is now showing
 

Scaramanga

Well-known member
Reckon sleepy will eat some cheerios and mumble a few words while KH will have a news conference and refer to herself in the past tense or something. You can just see China shaking in their boots cant you 😂😂
 

Paradiddle_01

Well-known member
Anybody who has ever played the board game 'Risk' will know full well just how difficult defending a small island against an aggressor with loads more pieces than you, especially when they're getting the rub of the green with the dice!

The current military intel suggests that IF China do decide to crack on and move some of their pieces into Taiwan, then it's likely to be done over an intense 48hr period.
How likely this is to happen though, is anybody's guess.
Putin keeps on moving his pieces in tactically unfathomable ways, and currently his dice throwing is pants!

We can but hope and pray that this threat to all of humanity doesn't continue escalating, but I think deep down that we realise that things worldwide are going to get a damn site worse in the coming months....
 
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