London the new Covid hotspot

Poultongirl said:
Raggy??? I know someone called raggy, he lives in Blackpool, sometimes see him when I am in Blackpool and am in the Lytham road area. Im not really attracted to macho men but he does seem a nice ladšŸ‘šŸ»
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Iā€™ve heard heā€™s only half the man he used to bešŸ˜‰

And as for TAM, since winning the Labour leadership race, heā€™s turned into a right Commy. I can only assume the E in BBE stands for Ebenezer.
 
There isnā€™t a perfect solution unfortunately

My proposals simply sought to allow some flexibility whilst militating against the impact of allowing a relaxation as currently planned

Common sense says less contact = less infections You donā€™t seriously need to produce modelling for that principle to be accepted

Not seeing your parents on Xmas day is a big deal for me - and more so perhaps for them

You talk about getting all Stasi but letā€™s get it right

1/ those with family members in care homes have had nearly 9 months or no / very restricted contact

2/ we have had students effectively locked up in halls of residence for weeks after being placed into a Covid pressure cooker

3/ weā€™ve had businesses arbitrarily closed based on tiering

4/ people having to self-isolate - often on their own

There will be many other examples of restrictions imposed on us all that weā€™ve had to accept

We all have to decide if we want to go back to all that as thatā€™s whatā€™s coming - and thatā€™s without even analysing the impact on death rates

You post as if Iā€™m suggesting something radical however the polls suggest a significant percentage of the population harbour the same concerns
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Iā€™ve heard heā€™s only half the man he used to bešŸ˜‰

And as for TAM, since winning the Labour leadership race, heā€™s turned into a right Commy. I can only assume the E in BBE stands for Ebenezer.
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Maybe not sure, donā€™t know him that well.
think I might know who you are. Are you about 65 with fuzzy hair and beard, normally wear inenco blackpool top from about 25 years ago , sometimes carry a back pack.
 
Like I have said on more than one occasion. If a significant percentage of the population (presumably who are similarly ā€˜Alright Jackā€™) have these concerns, then that will drastically limit interactions.

As you rightly point out though... Many of us havenā€™t seen our families for 9 Months... Weā€™ve used common sense over the summer... For my own part missing kids birthdays, sister-in-laws 50th and Neices 21st.

Iā€™ve done shopping online, avoided all indoor settings. Didnā€™t get involved in the nonsense that was ā€œEat out to Help Outā€

As far as Iā€™m concerned, Iā€™ve more than earned the right to do whatever I want at Christmas...

That will likely be a scaled down Christmas dinner with all my kids only... However if we do choose, we may get together again ... perhaps even on New Years Eve...

Iā€™ve spoken to the kids, reminded them to limit any contact leading up to Christmas to try and limit risk.

I also donā€™t agree that your revised plan will particularly reduce contact, nor do I think that it is reasonable or practical. The government proposals strike the right balance and seek to take account of everyoneā€™s circumstances, rather than essentially being driven by personal priorities.
 
Well if you look at the masses of shoppers packed in central London you can see why they need Tier3. My daughter lives there and says there is little social distancing or mask wearing and that some pubs are behaving like there are no restrictions at all
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
It's also worth adding that others in the EU are not actually placing any limitation on the number of households, which given the nature of the virus and the fact that risk is likely to be contained in each household bubble, makes their circumstances potentially more risky... i.e. 10 adults from any number of households mixing is likely to pose more risk than 20 people from 3 households mixing.
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Presumably also much harder to police and enforce, 10 people at a house party one night, then at 10 different parties the next, who's to say who shouldn't be at any particular party? At least with 3 distinct households it's easier to identify who should be there.

It will be interesting to see what happens compared to our neighbours, I suspect that unlike what the Guardian and Times would like you to believe our approach will be one of the more sensible ones.

Do you have a good source for what the other countries are doing?
 
Lost Seasider said:
Presumably also much harder to police and enforce, 10 people at a house party one night, then at 10 different parties the next, who's to say who shouldn't be at any particular party? At least with 3 distinct households it's easier to identify who should be there.

It will be interesting to see what happens compared to our neighbours, I suspect that unlike what the Guardian and Times would like you to believe our approach will be one of the more sensible ones.

Do you have a good source for what the other countries are doing?
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Iā€™ve tended to go off up to date News articles in the mainstream press and extracted the information from there...(so secondary sources tbf). Itā€™s also important to remember that the situation does appear to be fluid...Iā€™ve not clarified the actual position (beyond sensational headlines) in Germany yet...
 
Greenwich schools forced to close
Statement from Danny Thorpe, Leader of the Council:

Iā€™m writing this open letter to let you know the situation in Greenwich in relation to COVID-19 is now escalating extremely quickly and I have today been briefed by colleagues from Public Health England that the pandemic in Greenwich is now showing signs that we are in a period of exponential growth that demands immediate action.

We now have the highest rates of infection in Greenwich than at any time since March, and for these reasons I have therefore asked all schools in Greenwich to close their premises from Monday evening and move to online learning for the duration of the term, with the exception of key worker children and those with specific needs (exactly the same as in the first lockdown).

In another letter to families, Mr Thorpe stressed: "It is absolutely essential that everyone understands this is NOT an opportunity to extend Christmas celebrations in any way, and I'm asking for this to happen to reduce the risk of transmission."

He apologised for the disruption that the school closures were likely to cause to family lives, adding: "I wouldn't be asking for this unless the risk was extreme, but with numbers rising so rapidly it is clear action is needed."
 
Link for those who want to check: https://www.royalgreenwich.gov.uk/news/article/1753/statement_on_school_closures

225.0 cases per 100k in the last 7 days, less than half of what was being seen across large parts of Lancs in October; a rise of 48.6% in the last 7 days, not good but nowhere near the "doubling every 4 days" that he talks about and the comparison to March is obvious nonsense given the availability of testing back then.

On the face of it the decision seems premature, is he getting the wrong end of the stick, or is this another case of a local (Labour) politician playing politics with the virus and trying to make a name for himself?

I guess we'll have to wait and see.
 
London may face tier three restrictions soon to combat surging coronavirus cases

Cases in London continue to rise, making it increasingly likely that the city will be put under tier three coronavirus rules. ā€œWe know that as cases go up, hospitalisations and deaths follow. The current trajectory is a worrying one,ā€ Public Health England (PHE) London director, Kevin Fenton, told the Evening Standard. The seven-day average across England is 153 cases per 100,000 people. London now has a case rate of 191.2 per 100,000, with 22 of the 32 boroughs above the national average. Four boroughs in the north east ā€“ Havering, Barking and Dagenham, Waltham Forest and Redbridge ā€“ have case rates above 300 per 100,000. Last week Fenton warned Londoners: ā€œIf we want to avoid being placed in tier three, it is vital we keep transmission down.ā€ And after a meeting of London MPs with health minister Helen Whately on Thursday, one MP told Sky News: ā€œIt was a very clear preparation for tier three. I think the decision is pretty much made.ā€ The UK government is expected to review the tier allocation for London, as well as for all other regions in England, on 16 December.

Across the UK as a whole, the R number has increased slightly to between 0.9 to 1.0 in the most recent official estimate, from between 0.8 and 1.0 in the previous weekā€™s estimate. The R number estimate for London is slightly higher than that for the UK as a whole, at between 0.9 and 1.1. These estimates are most likely to represent the situation two or three weeks ago due to a time lag in the data used to model the R. The latest UK government figures indicate the number of new infections across the country is shrinking by between 0 and 2 per cent each day.


Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/articl...ectory-says-public-health-boss/#ixzz6gXggsXkR
 
GJJW said:
Greenwich schools forced to close
Statement from Danny Thorpe, Leader of the Council:

Iā€™m writing this open letter to let you know the situation in Greenwich in relation to COVID-19 is now escalating extremely quickly and I have today been briefed by colleagues from Public Health England that the pandemic in Greenwich is now showing signs that we are in a period of exponential growth that demands immediate action.

We now have the highest rates of infection in Greenwich than at any time since March, and for these reasons I have therefore asked all schools in Greenwich to close their premises from Monday evening and move to online learning for the duration of the term, with the exception of key worker children and those with specific needs (exactly the same as in the first lockdown).

In another letter to families, Mr Thorpe stressed: "It is absolutely essential that everyone understands this is NOT an opportunity to extend Christmas celebrations in any way, and I'm asking for this to happen to reduce the risk of transmission."

He apologised for the disruption that the school closures were likely to cause to family lives, adding: "I wouldn't be asking for this unless the risk was extreme, but with numbers rising so rapidly it is clear action is needed."
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Oh dear , isnā€™t Greenwich basil robbies manor? So all the pompous crap that heā€™s been spouting has come back to bite him on his big fat behind šŸ˜
 
This country has tried to do Lockdown-Lite and is even now opening the flood gates at Xmas so January cases followed by deaths are going to soar. Everyone knows the pattern by now yet we still don't go tough on Covid.

By comparison, someone I know who lives in Hong Kong and has had a son studying over here, is welcoming him back to Hong Kong for Xmas. Despite a negative Covid test before he flew, then another negative one on arrival, he still has to stay in a hotel for 14 days in quarantine.

That's the lengths other countries are going to and that's the freedom loss citizens are giving up to fight this virus.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
By comparison, someone I know who lives in Hong Kong and has had a son studying over here, is welcoming him back to Hong Kong for Xmas. Despite a negative Covid test before he flew, then another negative one on arrival, he still has to stay in a hotel for 14 days in quarantine.
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Erm, isn't that pretty much the same situation for anyone arriving here?

Edit:

Not that it makes a blind bit of difference when you're getting 20,000 or so cases per day anyway.
 
That didnā€™t look that busy to be fair

Looks like the Germans realise the need to be flexible and are imposing tighter restrictions over Xmas despite their original

New rules only allowing a max of 5 people to meet from no more than two households relaxed for three days ( 24-26th ) where one household can invite a max of 4 close family members to meet

Bavaria also has a curfew

Their rates are nothing like ours either
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
That didnā€™t look that busy to be fair

Looks like the Germans realise the need to be flexible and are imposing tighter restrictions over Xmas despite their original

New rules only allowing a max of 5 people to meet from no more than two households relaxed for three days ( 24-26th ) where one household can invite a max of 4 close family members to meet

Bavaria also has a curfew

Their rates are nothing like ours either
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German are recording more than double the number of daily infections compared to the UK and their deaths have been rising exponentially ?

Yet still their rules are not materially any different to what is being proposed in the UK...
 
Lost Seasider said:
Really? going by one of my usual sources I thought they were running at about the same number as us, where are you getting your figures from?
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I am same - 20k Germany and about 18.5k here
Their population is higher by about 25% so our rates are higher - albeit it's currently closer than I thought

Edit to add I think you are on Friday's rate and I am on today's info - to be fair weekends tend to be lower here Maybe they are there
 
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Lost Seasider said:
Really? going by one of my usual sources I thought they were running at about the same number as us, where are you getting your figures from?
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www.worldometers.info

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info


Apologies...They appear to be reporting rates around 60% higher than us.... I'm looking at confirmed data so 10th & 11th December Germany running around 28K+ compared to UK around 18K... weekend data is delayed and corrected etc..
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
www.worldometers.info

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info


Apologies...They appear to be reporting rates around 60% higher than us.... I'm looking at confirmed data so 10th & 11th December Germany running around 28K+ compared to UK around 18K... weekend data is delayed and corrected etc..
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My info says 22,200
Highest death toll so far though at 500+
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
My info says 22,200
Highest death toll so far though at 500+
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You're looking at todays data and completely ignoring the underlying trend ..Germany consistently under-report at weekends. Their death toll is rising exponentially, whereas ours has been trending downwards...

Were also in a completely different position because a) we know that placing some areas in Tier 3 between now and Christmas can bring our rates down and b) we have access to a vaccine and have already started the vaccination process in earnest.

The fact is that Germany were previously proposinbg much more generous measures for Christmas than the UK in any case...

To apply from December 23 to January 1 (LONGER TIME PERIOD)


  • Meetings involving people from more than two households to be permitted (NO UPPER LIMIT ON NO OF HOUSEHOLDS)
  • Maximum of five may be increased to 10 people (under-14s still exempt) (10 ADULTS FROM MULTIPLE MIXED HOUSEHOLDS)
So essentially all Germany are doing, is bringingthemselves more in line with the more sensible measures that have been proposed by the UK Goverment.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Iā€™m not sure itā€™s sentimental guff, so much as having an appreciation of the reality and accepting that swimming against the tide is pointless.

Celebrating with friends and family isnā€™t compulsory and weā€™re all free to make a considered choice.

Didnā€™t the scientific modellers also tell us that the circuit break was the answer ?

That went well šŸ˜‚
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As the rate has dropped by about 400 round our way, I'd say it did actually .

Meanwhile Tier 2 London sees a rise to around 500 compared to our 120. Bet you were all in tier 3 next week.
 
Levi501 said:
Anyone with a modicum of sense knows the Christmas rules all to well, but there are many people out there with large extended families who are just going to think, oh bugger that weā€™ll go and see old auntie Betty and uncle Tom who may not make it to next Christmas, whoā€™ll know anyway. Itā€™s going to happen, there are so many reasons why the rules will be broken, and who or by what means could this be monitored. Surely being a bit naive BFC3 to think otherwise tbh.
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And as a consequence old auntie Betty definitely wont make it
 
Wizaard said:
As the rate has dropped by about 400 round our way, I'd say it did actually .

Meanwhile Tier 2 London sees a rise to around 500 compared to our 120. Bet you were all in tier 3 next week.
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We didn't implement a "Circuit Break"...The Welsh did!! (It was an complete flop) and as we all expected further measures were required in any case. The Tier system has been far more effective.

To put into context...They are running at a daily case rate of around 800 per million compared to Englands 300
 
Wizaard said:
As the rate has dropped by about 400 round our way, I'd say it did actually .

Meanwhile Tier 2 London sees a rise to around 500 compared to our 120. Bet you were all in tier 3 next week.
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Tory MP's want the Govt to keep Central London in tier 2 according to the Evening Standard - completely ignoring the fact that will just encourage those in Tier 3 to hit the centre
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
We didn't implement a "Circuit Break"...The Welsh did!! (It was an complete flop) and as we all expected further measures were required in any case. The Tier system has been far more effective.
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We had a fortnight lockdown then went into tier 3. Have you forgotten that?
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
We didn't implement a "Circuit Break"...The Welsh did!! (It was an complete flop) and as we all expected further measures were required in any case. The Tier system has been far more effective.
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I'd agree with that My issue is with the projected impact of the relaxation and the stupidity of keeping London in Tier 2 when it was blatantly obvious it should have been placed in Tier 3 from the outset - on the basis it was a special case
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
I'd agree with that My issue is with the projected impact of the relaxation and the stupidity of keeping London in Tier 2 when it was blatantly obvious it should have been placed in Tier 3 from the outset - on the basis it was a special case
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To keep the economy going whereaver practically possible and particulary in our major cities is in our collective interests. The fact that they have managed the epidemic, without overburdening the NHS would suggest that they have, so far, got the balance right.
 
Wizaard said:
We had a fortnight lockdown then went into tier 3. Have you forgotten that?
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I thought it was more like 3 weeks and it was supposed to be a reset?

Essentially we remain in lockdown in anything, but name... The scientists were selling the circuit breaker as some kind of short sharp cure / reset.... Wales have demostrated that the theory was utter bollocks
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
I thought it was more like 3 weeks and it was supposed to be a reset?

Essentially we remain in lockdown in anything, but name... The scientists were selling the circuit breaker as some kind of short sharp cure / reset.... Wales have demostrated that the theory was utter bollocks
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Fair enough, but us remaining in lockdown in all but name has seen a marked decline in the rate of infection. Those with more leeway are exponentially on the rise.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
To keep the economy going whereaver practically possible and particulary in our major cities is in our collective interests. The fact that they have managed the epidemic, without overburdening the NHS would suggest that they have, so far, got the balance right.
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Hospitalisation doesnā€™t happen immediately you contract Covid
Itā€™s generally some weeks after
So letā€™s park that argument for now
For the record I agree about the economic impact of Tier 3 and hope we see Tier 2 shortly but London was made an exception when the rest of us ( inc the economic centres of the North ) were told to take the medicine
As it stands rates are going up in all 30+ boroughs
If theyā€™d gone into Tier 3 when they should their rates would likely be a lot lower now
 
Wizaard said:
Fair enough, but us remaining in lockdown in all but name has seen a marked decline in the rate of infection. Those with more leeway are exponentially on the rise.
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We know that shutting everything down for ever will stop the virus.... Itā€™s just not practical long term...

So the reality is that without a successful vaccine we have to learn to live with this virus and deal with a certain amount of death unfortunately.

Hopefully the vaccines will fulfil their promise .
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Hospitalisation doesnā€™t happen immediately you contract Covid
Itā€™s generally some weeks after
So letā€™s park that argument for now
For the record I agree about the economic impact of Tier 3 and hope we see Tier 2 shortly but London was made an exception when the rest of us ( inc the economic centres of the North ) were told to take the medicine
As it stands rates are going up in all 30+ boroughs
If theyā€™d gone into Tier 3 when they should their rates would likely be a lot lower now
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London wasnā€™t made an exception at all... Whether they now need to go into Tier 3 is one for those who have access to the detailed data to consider.

Im not sure thereā€™s any argument that Tier 3 would have resulted in less infections in London, but thereā€™s more to managing this than simply preventing virus transmission, otherwise weā€™d just be in lockdown indefinitely.
 
Birmingham was placed into Tier 3 with almost identical rates at the end of lockdown

For me what we saw was a exception made for the capital that wouldn't have been made elsewhere

Even now they are talking about splitting the capital up between Tier 2 and 3 when rates are worryingly high

No suggestion of that for anyone else - the whole administrative area went in irrespective of local anomolies

Here's the rate to 7/12 - every borough above 100 and many very high
www.mylondon.news

Coronavirus cases are increasing rapidly in every area of London

Every borough now has an infection rate above 100 cases per 100,000 people
www.mylondon.news www.mylondon.news

You can also bet your bottom dollar they are a lot higher now
 
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Copy & Paste

The first thing to note is that the capitalā€™s economy is seriously strong. With just 13% of the national population, London is responsible for 23% of the UK economy.

The capital contributed Ā£32.6bn more to the national purse than it took out. That money was then redistributed around the country, funding hospitals, schools and railways. If London was declared an independent country tomorrow, the rest of the nation would soon be bankrupt.
 
SlaveToTheRythm said:
Copy & Paste

The first thing to note is that the capitalā€™s economy is seriously strong. With just 13% of the national population, London is responsible for 23% of the UK economy.

The capital contributed Ā£32.6bn more to the national purse than it took out. That money was then redistributed around the country, funding hospitals, schools and railways. If London was declared an independent country tomorrow, the rest of the nation would soon be bankrupt.
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Is that a Daily Mail quote?
 
SlaveToTheRythm said:
Copy & Paste

The first thing to note is that the capitalā€™s economy is seriously strong. With just 13% of the national population, London is responsible for 23% of the UK economy.

The capital contributed Ā£32.6bn more to the national purse than it took out. That money was then redistributed around the country, funding hospitals, schools and railways. If London was declared an independent country tomorrow, the rest of the nation would soon be bankrupt.
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Well thatā€™s a massive reason why they need to start investing in the north and other areas and and distributing business and economic opportunities more evenly.
 
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And letā€™s get it right that doesnā€™t justify swerving the guidelines for entry to Tier 3

The main ā€˜ economic change ā€˜ in Tier 3 is in hospitality Without tourists that isnā€™t any more of a significant contributor to the UK economy than it is in the rest of the country

If you donā€™t apply the rules evenly any remaining faith in the tiering g system ( and tier 3 does seem to work ) and the Govtā€™s handling of pandemic will evaporate Theyā€™ve already had issues there due to Cummings et al

As the capital London should lead by example and itā€™s leaders should not seek to make excuses as by doing so they come across as acting like a petulant child who wonā€™t take its medicine
 
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TwelveAngryMen said:
And letā€™s get it right that doesnā€™t justify swerving the guidelines for entry to Tier 3

The main ā€˜ economic change ā€˜ in Tier 3 is in hospitality Without tourists that isnā€™t any more of a significant contributor to the UK economy than it is in the rest of the country

If you donā€™t apply the rules evenly any remaining faith in the tiring system ( and tier 3 does seem to work ) and the Govtā€™s handling of pandemic will evaporate Theyā€™ve already had issues there due to Cummings et al

As the capital London should lead by example and itā€™s leaders should not seek to make excuses as by doing so they come across as acting like a petulant child who wonā€™t take its medicine
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Totally agree. Especially regarding the fact hospitality is the only tier 3 to tier 2 difference. It shouldnā€™t impact any other part of the economy šŸ¤·ā€ā™€ļø
 
A think about what ?
Every single London borough has rising rates
Every borough has a rate that's higher than Wyre and Fylde, most are above Blackpool and three are in the top 8 areas in England for infection rate - and that's before the latest figures are released
The overall London rate is significantly higher than Manchester when it was forced into the highest restrictions
Are you saying ' Forget that - this is London ' ?
Where do you think London will be in Jan on that basis ?
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Birmingham was placed into Tier 3 with almost identical rates at the end of lockdown
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24th November, Birmingham was higher than every borough in London, and from memory about 50% higher than London as a whole.

However, as we know that headline case rates are one of several measures used in determining tiers, and since you've clearly decided that you know more than the CMO, could you let me have your assessment of the following for both cities, as of 24 November:
  • case rates amongst over 60's;
  • distribution of case rates across age ranges;
  • positivity rates from testing;
  • pressure on NHS in the regions, both from covid and elsewhere;
  • rate of change in the above.
Thanks in advance.
 
Lost Seasider said:
24th November, Birmingham was higher than every borough in London, and from memory about 50% higher than London as a whole.

However, as we know that headline case rates are one of several measures used in determining tiers, and since you've clearly decided that you know more than the CMO, could you let me have your assessment of the following for both cities, as of 24 November:
  • case rates amongst over 60's;
  • distribution of case rates across age ranges;
  • positivity rates from testing;
  • pressure on NHS in the regions, both from covid and elsewhere;
  • rate of change in the above.
Thanks in advance.
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Lost I accept I was wrong there - the piece I read was a little ambiguous and I took it that the rates were similar as we exited lockdown however I accept on re-reading the piece it mean't as at last week
 
lots of different things go into the cake mix to produce what in theory should be a Fairly balanced outcome - I think that size of GDP contribution is fairly Chunky wouldnā€™t you agree. You know, Probably enough to suggest we donā€™t just apply a one size fits all strategy?

What I donā€™t understand is for somebody who was originally advocating that the cure was worse than the illness youā€™re now changing tack and deciding The complete opposite
 
SlaveToTheRythm said:
Copy & Paste

The first thing to note is that the capitalā€™s economy is seriously strong. With just 13% of the national population, London is responsible for 23% of the UK economy.

The capital contributed Ā£32.6bn more to the national purse than it took out. That money was then redistributed around the country, funding hospitals, schools and railways. If London was declared an independent country tomorrow, the rest of the nation would soon be bankrupt.
Click to expand...
And investment in London from the tax revenues raised is proportionally higher as well. Railways is the classic example with Ā£1500 per head in London, compared to around Ā£100 per head in the North.
 
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