London the new Covid hotspot

With regard to London I had to go there last week. I caught the 8.10 train from Birmingham New Street which was deserted and got into Euston at 9.30 ( why do we need HS2?) Euston was empty and took the Tube to Charing Cross Hospital, very quiet. Then had to get to North Middlesex Hospital which is in Edmonton so Tube to Seven Sisters ( White Hart Lane looks very nice) which was quiet. Then I had to get the Overground which was rammed so the City is quiet but the suburbs are still packed . This is exactly like the West Midlands but every area has got put into Tier 3. My return from New Street on the 5.45 to my local station was really quiet had a carriage to myself and would normally be standing all the way,
Consistency across the country is required.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
And that wasn't the case in Manchester albeit with university students ?
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I don't think so.

If we take this map and wind it back to early/mid September there's a relatively high number of cases in Manchester and the NW that pre-dates the return of students, Bolton e.g. is 220.5 in w/e 12/9, which would be T3 levels today.

We don't see the student effect in, say, Nottingham until the end of September to early October, even then in w/e 26/9 you're talking about 74.5/100k in Nottingham compared to 397.2 in Manchester.

I don't have the information to check further (at least not in reasonable time), but I think it's reasonable to assume that the outbreak from early September was spread more across the community, which is to say in older age groups that then leads to pressure on the NHS further down the line.
 
basilrobbie said:
I'm mildly surprised that it hasn't been any worse here. Even now, it is mainly a problem of the outer East and outer West of the city and the East End. Where most people live most closely to each other, in fact.
I’ll f it’s the ‘
But large parts of the city are around the national average and some are a good bit better. I can't speak for anywhere else, but people HAVE significantly changed their behaviour here. We are not going out as much, hardly anyone is commuting, the Tube is pretty empty outside of peak hours. The trains are just pretty empty full stop.

Like it or not, it is still the epicentre of the nation's wealth and its economic engine. I don't blame them for hesitating about changing the Tier ; with all due respect, the impact of a change here is far more significant economically than what you do in a Northern seaside resort, in the middle of winter. There is a balance to be struck, and not only is it not easy, there is no single, definitive right answer.
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If London is the ‘epicentre’ of the Nations wealth, they may as well scrap HS2..... be no need to venture upt North will there?
While we’re at it, ban whippets, woodbines, flat caps and pigeons! I mean, these towns and Cities a north of the ‘epicentre’ contribute nothing in the way of Tax, Corporation tax, VAT, etc....
 
Old_Laytonian said:
It’s been brought in to stop any “naughty “
Families going abroad over Christmas and enjoying themselves.
“ We have you under control and you vill obey orders at all time “
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P
Scaramanga said:
She’s allowed an opinion without being pressed on why she feels that way, what’s your problem you bell end.
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Sorry to have an opinion, I’m a total bell end, thank fuck the pair of you have, humble apologies 😔😘😘
 
Fylde now at 73 per 100k , soon be lowest in country but still in tier 3. Our village pubs still classed as Covid hotspots ... enjoy your beer and scotch egg in London tomorrow
 
carlmb1966 said:
Fylde now at 73 per 100k , soon be lowest in country but still in tier 3. Our village pubs still classed as Covid hotspots ... enjoy your beer and scotch egg in London tomorrow
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Good rate for lancs but doubt it will be the lowest in the Country. Llandudno were only 27/100k a few weeks back and still were in severe restrictions, Places will be less than Fylde
 
carlmb1966 said:
Not many in London
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its probably varies quite a bit but yeah i would highly doubt many areas are as low as that.
I would say its better to be in fylde than London if you want to avoid folk with covid so that should be seen as good for fylde 👍
bbc says Blackpool area is still above national average last week.

146
cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 1 Dec-7 Dec. The average area in England had 134.
 
Lost Seasider said:
I don't think so.

If we take this map and wind it back to early/mid September there's a relatively high number of cases in Manchester and the NW that pre-dates the return of students, Bolton e.g. is 220.5 in w/e 12/9, which would be T3 levels today.

We don't see the student effect in, say, Nottingham until the end of September to early October, even then in w/e 26/9 you're talking about 74.5/100k in Nottingham compared to 397.2 in Manchester.

I don't have the information to check further (at least not in reasonable time), but I think it's reasonable to assume that the outbreak from early September was spread more across the community, which is to say in older age groups that then leads to pressure on the NHS further down the line.
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Yeah Bolton - that famous university town 😆
 
Plumbs said:
This is very true indeed they started the Great Plague down there simply by not washing their hands after going to the toilet,and if you've been to the Hole in the Wall pub in Waterloo then you'll understand why.

Very selfish people down there who have little in the way of community spirit, any sort of personal ethics or standards, and often simply caricatures like the Bishop of Bath and Wells in Blackadder.
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Feck orf !

 
deary said:
Its a tricky one,
Probably not a popular view but London is pretty much the finance capital of Europe so its probably more important to keep it open than say Hull.
Personally i think the whole Country should be in tier 3 but im not making the decision & trying to juggle the safety v economic impact.
I actually think there is a good chance London will be placed in tier 3 next week.

The only way to seriously limit infections in winter is probably lockdown or tier 3 at best & close all unis & colleges imho.

As soon as you open up especially now in the run up to xmas unfortunately it will likely spread big time.
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The city can still function in Tier 3.

A late Jan lockdown is a certainty, nationally.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Only because of the Xmas stupidity

We would be best tiering and parking the festivities
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You know what occurs to me.

Through your posts, you seem to think that you know better than the CSA, CMO and DCMO together with countless other experts who have far more information available to them to guide the decisions and decades of experience working in the area.

The closest parallel I can think of is the football fan who's never played the game above school level but thinks he could run a professional side, or even a national one, better than whoever has the job at the time.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Only because of the Xmas stupidity

We would be best tiering and parking the festivities
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Agreed xmas break in restrictions is a sentimental move driven by the likes of the Daily Mail with all the guff about hugging granny
Unfortunately we will not go into tier 2 a week before xmas then have this nonsense starting on 23rd for 4 days
This will surely keep us in tier 3 until February
Hope I'm wrong but gave not met one person who thinks the xmas break is a good idea
 
Despite the relaxed rules we’ve decided to not have the usual family round for this one (hopefully) Xmas. We think now there is light at the end tunnel it’s just not worth the risk. Just like Bisphamtang most people I know don’t see the benefit...only the increased risk. Our thinking is also influenced by the fact that 5 of my wife’s colleagues currently has COVID and one has died after testing positive.
 
This is Ska said:
Despite the relaxed rules we’ve decided to not have the usual family round for this one (hopefully) Xmas. We think now there is light at the end tunnel it’s just not worth the risk. Just like Bisphamtang most people I know don’t see the benefit...only the increased risk. Our thinking is also influenced by the fact that 5 of my wife’s colleagues currently has COVID and one has died after testing positive.
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Is your Mrs a civil servant?
 
fcblackpool said:
The city can still function in Tier 3.

A late Jan lockdown is a certainty, nationally.
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I agree & think they should be seems a lot of the bleating on here was mainly because London was in tier 2 and people wanted Blackpool to also be.
Perhaps so folk could go to the pub? 😉
I also think lockdown will be introduced again in Jan. Heavy restrictions unfortunately seems the only way to get some control over it,

Read a report in the summer that after easing restrictions the rates in another Country hit hard Mexico tripled within a few weeks.
 
Nothing will change here next week and more areas will be placed in T3.

The R rate is up, and all weekly comparative stats are up. Positive tests up by 24%, deaths marginal by 1.5% but the numbers are still horrific, hospital admissions up by 8.7%.
 
Lost Seasider said:
You know what occurs to me.

Through your posts, you seem to think that you know better than the CSA, CMO and DCMO together with countless other experts who have far more information available to them to guide the decisions and decades of experience working in the area.

The closest parallel I can think of is the football fan who's never played the game above school level but thinks he could run a professional side, or even a national one, better than whoever has the job at the time.
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Their own modelling says the five day break with double the number of infections

You don't need to be ' an expert ' to realise that's not a sensible plan and in any event I doubt very much any expert will have recommended this

It's sentimental guff driving policy - it has nothing to do with ' following the science '
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Their own modelling says the five day break with double the number of infections
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The thread was originally about what tier London was in, you've been saying for weeks that they should be in T2, the CMO etc seem to disagree.

Regarding Christmas, what do you think will happen if they don't relax the rules for a few days? My guess is:
  • poorer compliance in the weeks running up to Christmas
  • large numbers ignore the rules and do Christmas as normal anyway;
  • this gets repeated a week later for new year;
  • this lack of compliance becomes ingrained and carries on into next year;
  • cases go up anyway, and it's much harder to get them down because people aren't folling the rules anymore;
thus I see this as an attempt to place limits on the inevitable and ensure continued compliance across a wider timescale than just a few days.
 
cruzzer said:
Nothing will change here next week and more areas will be placed in T3.

The R rate is up, and all weekly comparative stats are up. Positive tests up by 24%, deaths marginal by 1.5% but the numbers are still horrific, hospital admissions up by 8.7%.
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Hospital admissions increase in December!! Gosh what’s a shock that is, just like every other bloody December aye??
all this bull is really getting tedious now, just open everything up ffs, if you get I’ll just stay in bed.
 
The madness is that tonight, despite the infection rate in London, people are allowed to attend the theatre. Strange how the Government acted so quickly in other areas. Why wait until next week.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Their own modelling says the five day break with double the number of infections

You don't need to be ' an expert ' to realise that's not a sensible plan and in any event I doubt very much any expert will have recommended this

It's sentimental guff driving policy - it has nothing to do with ' following the science '
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I’m not sure it’s sentimental guff, so much as having an appreciation of the reality and accepting that swimming against the tide is pointless.

Celebrating with friends and family isn’t compulsory and we’re all free to make a considered choice.

Didn’t the scientific modellers also tell us that the circuit break was the answer ?

That went well 😂
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
You can talk about the economic impact in Blackpool in winter but we had to deal with the loss of the summer season

Manchester / Leeds / Sheffield / Birmingham / Newcastle / Liverpool have all had to deal with the economic impact of Tier 3 as well

London shouldn't be treated as ' a special case ' - it leaves a sour taste
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My brother in law’s family live in Highgate
Both kids refer to us “them up North”
Enough said.
 
Luton whilst not in London but definitely down South has 295 COVID cases per 100,000 but allowed fans in today. They are in Bedfordshire so Tier 2. Yep, that makes sense
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Their own modelling says the five day break with double the number of infections

You don't need to be ' an expert ' to realise that's not a sensible plan and in any event I doubt very much any expert will have recommended this

It's sentimental guff driving policy - it has nothing to do with ' following the science '
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It's people driving policy. If they didn't allow relaxation then people would crack on regardless. At least now they know what is right and wrong.

TAM you forget people are as thick as fuck and essentially so self-centered, they don't give a shit unless told to do so. Even then....
 
Lost all the polls taken confirm that even Joe Public doesn't think the five day relaxation is a good idea

Neither does it make economic sense as the shops and businesses forced to close won't benefit and we'll have to lockdown harder again in the New Year

The only ones seemingly who do are Boris and his cabinet - oh and you
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
I’m not sure it’s sentimental guff, so much as having an appreciation of the reality and accepting that swimming against the tide is pointless.

Celebrating with friends and family isn’t compulsory and we’re all free to make a considered choice.

Didn’t the scientific modellers also tell us that the circuit break was the answer ?

That went well 😂
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Personally I think the best plan would have been to leave things as they were but turn a blind eye on the day itself if a few locally based family members want to get together

One thing we shouldn't be encouraging is relatives travelling up and down the country for a five day family shindig as that is going to undo all the good work in those areas that are seeing drops in rates / deaths

Plenty of people I have spoken to all have the same view - and are left asking ' What was the point ? '
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Personally I think the best plan would have been to leave things as they were but turn a blind eye on the day itself if a few locally based family members want to get together

One thing we shouldn't be encouraging is relatives travelling up and down the country for a five day family shindig as that is going to undo all the good work in those areas that are seeing drops in rates / deaths

Plenty of people I have spoken to all have the same view - and are left asking ' What was the point ? '
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They don’t have any choice to turn a blind eye, regardless of what happens. We simply don’t have the resource to even attempt to Police it and it would be massively counterproductive in any case.

Personally, I think accepting the situation and treating people like adults is the sensible approach and so I have no problem with government policy.

I accept that you may speak to people who have, in brief conversation, suggested they have the same view... I’d say a few things about that... Firstly, in polite conversation people are often agreeable just to be polite... Secondly, I very much doubt people give it much thought and so draw fairly flimsy and I’ll founded conclusions and thirdly, as I have said repeatedly, it’s not compulsory.

I can say with absolute assurance that the alternative would be carnage.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
They don’t have any choice to turn a blind eye, regardless of what happens. We simply don’t have the resource to even attempt to Police it and it would be massively counterproductive in any case.

Personally, I think accepting the situation and treating people like adults is the sensible approach and so I have no problem with government policy.

I accept that you may speak to people who have, in brief conversation, suggested they have the same view... I’d say a few things about that... Firstly, in polite conversation people are often agreeable just to be polite... Secondly, I very much doubt people give it much thought and so draw fairly flimsy and I’ll founded conclusions and thirdly, as I have said repeatedly, it’s not compulsory.

I can say with absolute assurance that the alternative would be carnage.
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I fully accept that compliance would slip over Xmas
It's human nature
Sanctioning something that will double infection rates I just don't get
We just have to hope the general populous have enough common sense not to take up all the opportunities this relaxation presents
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Personally I think the best plan would have been to leave things as they were but turn a blind eye on the day itself if a few locally based family members want to get together
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Sounds like the worst of all worlds to me, having rules in place that people then ignore, what's to stop them continuing to ignore them over new year and then ignore them on into January.

Also, take those polls with a large pinch of salt, especially the ones in the Guardian, they always depend upon the question that is asked and I suspect a lot of those who say it is a bad idea would break the rules anyway.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
I fully accept that compliance would slip over Xmas
It's human nature
Sanctioning something that will double infection rates I just don't get
We just have to hope the general populous have enough common sense not to take up all the opportunities this relaxation presents
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So what’s the alternative? To create a situation where large scale non-compliance is normalised and essentially not challenged?

That sets the wrong tone moving forwards... You have to remember we’re dealing with a longer term issue, not just a few days.
TwelveAngryMen said:
Just our household this Xmas and perhaps my sister and her partner in the evening
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So presumably that involves kids returning from Uni? And, as you say relatives round in the evening ... and that’s what you’re admitting to😂😂😂

At the end of the day, that’s likely all that the vast majority of people will be doing, if anything. so it’s a bit rich calling it out mate.

We’re having all our kids and partners round as well as our granddaughter. Not bothering with extended family members or other celebrations

I’ve barely seen my kids for the past 9 Months....
 
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