10 wins from last 17

BpoolFred34

BpoolFred34

Well-known member
Looking at previous tables from the last few years, it would appear that the minimum amount of points is 77 to finish in the playoffs.That means in our last 17 games, we need 10 wins and a draw with us currently on 46 points at the moment, would put us on 77. Big ask, but is it achievable?
 
BpoolFred34 said:
Looking at previous tables from the last few years, it would appear that the minimum amount of points is 77 to finish in the playoffs.That means in our last 17 games, we need 10 wins and a draw with us currently on 46 points at the moment, would put us on 77. Big ask, but is it achievable?
Click to expand...
Oxford had 74 points three years ago when we played them in the playoffs.

Not sure why you're saying 77 is the minimum?
 
This is how the table will finish I'd all teams continue their points per game. We'd be 10 points off 6th. It's a lot to make up and 8 of our next 12 games are away from home. And 6 are against teams above us. We're going to have to be really good to get a top 6 finish.

Bolton 97.0
Posh 92.0
Pompey 92.0
Derby 88.8
Barnsley 85.4
Stevenage 83.5
Oxford 79.3
Blackpool 73.0

80 points could well fall short of the playoffs. Comparing this season with our promotion season doesn't work, the table has a different balance. If we need 84 points it means 38 more points from 17 games, 12 wins and 2 draws. If you're being positive you look at beating Stevenage and Oxford to close the gap and then argue that they might struggle to keep going at the rate they have done so far. It's still possible but we have two really tough months ahead and need to win a lot of away games.

We are 14/1 to get promoted.
Oxford 10/1
Stevenage 6/1
Barnsley 3/1
Top 4 are all odds on.
 
voyeur said:
This is how the table will finish I'd all teams continue their points per game. We'd be 10 points off 6th. It's a lot to make up and 8 of our next 12 games are away from home. And 6 are against teams above us. We're going to have to be really good to get a top 6 finish.

Bolton 97.0
Posh 92.0
Pompey 92.0
Derby 88.8
Barnsley 85.4
Stevenage 83.5
Oxford 79.3
Blackpool 73.0

80 points could well fall short of the playoffs. Comparing this season with our promotion season doesn't work, the table has a different balance. If we need 84 points it means 38 more points from 17 games, 12 wins and 2 draws. If you're being positive you look at beating Stevenage and Oxford to close the gap and then argue that they might struggle to keep going at the rate they have done so far. It's still possible but we have two really tough months ahead and need to win a lot of away games.

We are 14/1 to get promoted.
Oxford 10/1
Stevenage 6/1
Barnsley 3/1
Top 4 are all odds on.
Click to expand...
Every time we take 3 points away in those 8 games - the likely points total of the teams we beat drops (those above us potentially) and given our pretty abysmal away form in the first half of the season our likely points total increases.
A playoff finish really isn’t unlikely and certainly isn’t beyond us.
Critchley also develops and improves players - that’s what he does - so we’re likely to finish stronger than we started imo.
 
LA1 Seasider said:
Every time we take 3 points away in those 8 games - the likely points total of the teams we beat drops (those above us potentially) and given our pretty abysmal away form in the first half of the season our likely points total increases.
A playoff finish really isn’t unlikely and certainly isn’t beyond us.
Critchley also develops and improves players - that’s what he does - so we’re likely to finish stronger than we started imo.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't disagree with that but we have no wiggle room and we need to improve our away form significantly. Only three of the 8 away games are against teams above us, too.
 
Looks to me like 79 or 80 points might be needed to get into the top six and whilst tough I don't think that it's too big an ask. We need to be more consistent though - even with four games unbeaten I think we all agree that Charlton was 2 points dropped.
 
Chunkylad said:
Is the team better now than it was in November? I’d say yes both in terms of personnel and style.

That looks game on to me.
Click to expand...
We can still do it but we have a really tough schedule ahead of us with lots of away games and top 7 teams. We are better than we were but still feel a bit vulnerable defensively and Rhodes hasn't scored in his last 8 games. 80 points might not be enough either. I'm not sure we are yet good enough to get the points we need from the games we have over the next couple of months. Time will tell.
 
I believe that we are are at best when the odds are against us. I think and hope that Critchley and the team will use this to rise to the challenge. We are I believe A team that thrives better under pressure and in true Blackpool fashion we will sneak into the playoffs on the back of an amazing run. Once again we will be the form team that nobody wants to play and we will have another victorious day at Wembley. I like the look of the new signings, particularly Byers to make an immediate impact and looking how Kouassi performed the other night against Bolton, I think he will be massive for us in the next few weeks. Let it begin on Saturday. Come on !!!
 
The average points for 6th place over the last 5 seasons is 78 (77.8) points. That average comes down if taken over a longer period.
That is mirrored by 5th bottom,on average over the same period, staying up with 46 points.

Fleetwood stayed up with 40 points recently.
Plymouth didn’t make the play offs with 80 points one season.

Stats suggest there is a lot of dross in this division that the top teams beat home & away.
 
One of those away wins was when we dismantled Pompey. We are better away against the top teams.

For me only Peterborough at home was the game where we looked a far worse team. The other defeats have been where we just didn’t defend properly or got caught on the counter being too impatient.

Accept a draw in the impatient games against the 10 man block if that means securing the defence away from home.
 
Out of our last 17 games, we've got 7 at home and 10 away
Home
Oxford, Bolton, Portsmouth, Fleetwood, Wycombe, Cambridge, Barnsley

Away
Stevenage, Cheltenham, Peterborough, Leyton, Shrewsbury, Northampton, Wigan, Derby, Carlisle, Reading
 
BpoolFred34 said:
Out of our last 17 games, we've got 7 at home and 10 away
Home
Oxford, Bolton, Portsmouth, Fleetwood, Wycombe, Cambridge, Barnsley

Away
Stevenage, Cheltenham, Peterborough, Leyton, Shrewsbury, Northampton, Wigan, Derby, Carlisle, Reading
Click to expand...
Home. 4 out of the top 7, the 3 other games we managed to muster 1 whole point from the corresponding matches.
(Waits for the, we've got a great home record cry)

Away. Well, apart from dismantling Pompy it's all been a bit sketchy and we've 6, imo, really tough away fixtures from that list.

Obviously being a Blackpool fan I want them to be as successful as they can but I can't be as blindingly optimistic as some on here🤷
 
BpoolFred34 said:
Out of our last 17 games, we've got 7 at home and 10 away
Home
Oxford, Bolton, Portsmouth, Fleetwood, Wycombe, Cambridge, Barnsley

Away
Stevenage, Cheltenham, Peterborough, Leyton, Shrewsbury, Northampton, Wigan, Derby, Carlisle, Reading
Click to expand...
To get to 80 points as has been suggested on this thread as a target to get into the playoffs, we’d have to win all home games and draw all away, any we lose whether at home or away, we’d have to pick up from away games. Of course some of the teams above us have a bad run
 
We definitely have the players to do it.
Play the right players, in the right positions, with the 'up & at em' tactics (cease the tippy, tappy, backwards, sidewards, boring stuff) like we played the year we went to the PL, and we will finish in the play offs, maybe even higher!
Let's go for it & our fantastic supporters will help to earn the points.
 
I'm going to be honest, as much as I would love us to do it, I think we will finish just outside in 7th place. We had a lot of new players this season, we also had to reset after last season. I think have a good summer of transfers, sell the likes of Carey, Virtue (or release if out of contract), bring some quality additions in and with the nucleus of what we already have, I think we will get promoted next season
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
I really can't see it
Far too cautious and incredibly inconsistent
We needed to win at least two of those three away games around Xmas to give ourselves a decent chance
It's a pity as the squad is and always was good enough
Click to expand...
We needed a good start to the season Tim and still don't understand how some were happy by not winning any of the Orient and PV at home with Exeter away, coupled with Wycombe away.
It's been an uphill slog from the start.
 
voyeur said:
This is how the table will finish I'd all teams continue their points per game. We'd be 10 points off 6th. It's a lot to make up and 8 of our next 12 games are away from home. And 6 are against teams above us. We're going to have to be really good to get a top 6 finish.

Bolton 97.0
Posh 92.0
Pompey 92.0
Derby 88.8
Barnsley 85.4
Stevenage 83.5
Oxford 79.3
Blackpool 73.0

80 points could well fall short of the playoffs. Comparing this season with our promotion season doesn't work, the table has a different balance. If we need 84 points it means 38 more points from 17 games, 12 wins and 2 draws. If you're being positive you look at beating Stevenage and Oxford to close the gap and then argue that they might struggle to keep going at the rate they have done so far. It's still possible but we have two really tough months ahead and need to win a lot of away games.

We are 14/1 to get promoted.
Oxford 10/1
Stevenage 6/1
Barnsley 3/1
Top 4 are all odds on.
Click to expand...
Can't see Notlob being 24pts better off than us
 
20togo said:
play a game, re-assess, play a game re-assess.
Click to expand...
It's a bit bloody late for that now, we need an average of two points per match and even that may not be enough, Critchley was the wrong appointmant at the wrong time.
 
Last season 6th finished on 77 points. So that sets the bar in my opinion, more so given the higher than average PPG this season. 6th finished with an average of 1.67 PPG. So far 6th is averaging 1.72 PPG which if that continues finishes with 79-80 points. We are currently averaging 1.58 PPG. Far too short of either totals. 80 points is not so impossible a requirement.
 
voyeur said:
This is how the table will finish I'd all teams continue their points per game. We'd be 10 points off 6th. It's a lot to make up and 8 of our next 12 games are away from home. And 6 are against teams above us. We're going to have to be really good to get a top 6 finish.

Bolton 97.0
Posh 92.0
Pompey 92.0
Derby 88.8
Barnsley 85.4
Stevenage 83.5
Oxford 79.3
Blackpool 73.0

80 points could well fall short of the playoffs. Comparing this season with our promotion season doesn't work, the table has a different balance. If we need 84 points it means 38 more points from 17 games, 12 wins and 2 draws. If you're being positive you look at beating Stevenage and Oxford to close the gap and then argue that they might struggle to keep going at the rate they have done so far. It's still possible but we have two really tough months ahead and need to win a lot of away games.

We are 14/1 to get promoted.
Oxford 10/1
Stevenage 6/1
Barnsley 3/1
Top 4 are all odds on.
Click to expand...
83 to squeeze in. More to be sure…..to be sure
 
The last 10 years the PPG for 6th place were as follows:

2023 - 1.67 (77pts)
2022 - 1.8 (83 pts)
2021 - 1.6 (74 pts)
2020 - 1.71 (60 points - season cut short due to covid - would be 74 pts over 46 games)
2019 - 1.58 (73 pts)
2018 - 1.54 (71 pts)
2017 - 1.58 (73 pts)
2016 - 1.6 (74 pts)
2015 - 1.5 (69 pts)
2014 - 1.6 (74 pts)

Total Average - 1.61 (74 pts)

Note that 82 points would not have been enough to make the play offs 2 years ago so yes it has happened. Plymouth finished 7th on 80 points. Again at current pace the required points haul required would be 80 points which is 34 points from our remaining 17 games at an average of 2 PPG. That's automatic form. Well above average but we did it in 2021

Current pace is 1.72, which would rank 2nd out of the last 11 years. Tough season.
 
Last edited:
LA1 Seasider said:
Every time we take 3 points away in those 8 games - the likely points total of the teams we beat drops (those above us potentially) and given our pretty abysmal away form in the first half of the season our likely points total increases.
A playoff finish really isn’t unlikely and certainly isn’t beyond us.
Critchley also develops and improves players - that’s what he does - so we’re likely to finish stronger than we started imo.
Click to expand...
If we’re not in the playoffs it’s meaningless.
 
It will be one of the higher points totals and could be the highest ever. We're capable of picking up enough points but the games against our rivals are vital.
 
Wizaard said:
To be 6th? Utter nonsense.
Click to expand...
It’s really not hard to work out using simple maths… unless TWO teams really drop off in terms of form then it will be minimum 80 points… it’s no good looking at previous seasons average, the teams above us are much stronger than usual in league one
 
Every team will have a bad patch, we are undoubtedly getting stronger as the season goes on so our points per game ratio is going up. Critch generally gets a better result in the 2nd game against teams in the league. Still not ruled out automatic but we will make the play offs I am sure. We are undisputed world champions of winning play offs.
 
L’étranger said:
I think we’ve got every chance.
Whilst Oxford may improve, Barnsley have been massively over achieving (results far better than performances - not sustainable in the longer term).
I also expect a drop off from Stevenage. Teams that rely more on fitness and physicality often fall away towards the end of the season - we saw it three years ago when Evans was in charge of Gillingham.
I’d be very surprised if we need 80 points to get in the top six.6️⃣
Click to expand...
Agree on Stevenage, teams tend to work these teams out 2nd time around. Fingers crossed with a good wind it starts today. 1-4 statement win.
 
BlackpoolJord said:
It’s really not hard to work out using simple maths… unless TWO teams really drop off in terms of form then it will be minimum 80 points… it’s no good looking at previous seasons average, the teams above us are much stronger than usual in league one
Click to expand...
And history tells me that over the last 10 years, you've needed 80 points once. The average to be 6th is 74.

It's really not hard to work out. Teams cannot sustain averaging 1.75 points a game over a whole season.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top