Blackpool South by-election poll.

Which party will you vote for?

  • Conservative

    Votes: 11 17.5%

  • Labour

    Votes: 28 44.4%

  • Lib Dem

    Votes: 2 3.2%

  • Green

    Votes: 2 3.2%

  • Reform UK

    Votes: 20 31.7%
  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .
JJpool said:
We'll see, could be overrun with labour supporters on here...
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Almost certain Labour will get higher than the 44% they are on here and Reform will likely get closer to half of what it is on this poll.

My prediction would be

Labour 49%
Conservatives 28%
Reform 17%

Labour will want to hit 50 but might fall just short at 48/49. Reform have plateaued nationally the last month. Wouldn't be shocked if the gap for 2nd is smaller though considering they have put a lot of effort into the local campaign and have an unusually strong candidate compared to their baseline.
 
foggy said:
Almost certain Labour will get higher than the 44% they are on here and Reform will likely get closer to half of what it is on this poll.

My prediction would be

Labour 49%
Conservatives 28%
Reform 17%

Labour will want to hit 50 but might fall just short at 48/49. Reform have plateaued nationally the last month. Wouldn't be shocked if the gap for 2nd is smaller though considering they have put a lot of effort into the local campaign and have an unusually strong candidate compared to their baseline.
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Could be right, however would be disappointing if so many still go for the Conservatives and tbh if so many go for Labour after all that is moaned about, but it is what it is. There's a hope it could be a bigger amount but it's just hope and is unknown how we'll they've done on the doorsteps and how many they've actually managed to reach in a short time really.

It's a good trial run though for the real big one in 6 months or so maybe and a good chance to grow brand recognition in the area.

If Webb gets in as is likely he's then under the spotlight for that time, which isn't that long, but gives Mark the chance as he says "to give Labour a bloody nose" in that time and we know many love to blame those in power.
 
JJpool said:
Could be right, however would be disappointing if so many still go for the Conservatives and tbh if so many go for Labour after all that is moaned about, but it is what it is. There's a hope it could be a bigger amount but it's just hope and is unknown how we'll they've done on the doorsteps and how many they've actually managed to reach in a short time really.

It's a good trial run though for the real big one in 6 months or so maybe and a good chance to grow brand recognition in the area.

If Webb gets in as is likely he's then under the spotlight for that time, which isn't that long, but gives Mark the chance as he says "to give Labour a bloody nose" in that time and we know many love to blame those in power.
Click to expand...

A "bloody nose"? Reform is an absolute gift to Labour. All those far right wingers being drawn in by populist drivel will make it an overwhelming shoe in for Labour. Not quite a bloody nose lol!
 
JJpool said:
Could be right, however would be disappointing if so many still go for the Conservatives and tbh if so many go for Labour after all that is moaned about, but it is what it is. There's a hope it could be a bigger amount but it's just hope and is unknown how we'll they've done on the doorsteps and how many they've actually managed to reach in a short time really.

It's a good trial run though for the real big one in 6 months or so maybe and a good chance to grow brand recognition in the area.

If Webb gets in as is likely he's then under the spotlight for that time, which isn't that long, but gives Mark the chance as he says "to give Labour a bloody nose" in that time and we know many love to blame those in power.
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It would certainly reflect what has been happening for two years now. People saying that nobody really likes Labour all that much while they rack up some of the biggest by-election wins in UK parliamentary history on course to winning what is likely to be the largest majority for a single party in the era of universal suffrage.
 
Macseasider said:
A "bloody nose"? Reform is an absolute gift to Labour. All those far right wingers being drawn in by populist drivel will make it an overwhelming shoe in for Labour. Not quite a bloody nose lol!
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Did you read what I put... It's what he said about if Webb wins and what he'll be doing in between this and the next election.

It gives him far more time than you usually get to get his message out and he's a likeable guy and people respect what he's done.

Oh and there's that far right nonesense again, laughable.
 
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JJpool said:
You've replied to yourself you daft sod and no it's because it's funny to try and deny it exists.
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JJ. " woke" culture is a label, nothing more, nothing less. It's also a pejorative label,which makes it entirely subjective.
 
JJpool said:
A label for things people see that are have to be called something, it's real.
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It's totally subjective. " People ". Which people? It's a meaningless, pejorative label. You subscribe to it,ok, that's your right,but lots don't. It's a nonsense label.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
No it is not. Your insistentce on this issue says more about you than it says about those who are awake to the tragedy of extreme views.
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You're seriously deluded, everyone knows woke exists, but it's just a name for some of the daft things that happen these days.

Maybe get out into the real world and open your eyes.

As long as we have some of the trans stuff, have 'chest feeders' and 'people who menstruate' etc, then it's just a few examples of woke. Pandering to tiny minorities in ways that affects the vast majority.

The lunatic left are all the same, denying things that don't affect them, like cancel culture, that's not real either apparently. Laughable.
 
Brazil said:
It's totally subjective. " People ". Which people? It's a meaningless, pejorative label. You subscribe to it,ok, that's your right,but lots don't. It's a nonsense label.
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It's just a descriptive term for daft things that exist.
 
www.spectator.co.uk

Is 'woke' real?

Woke is a strange phenomena, but what does it actually mean? Activists and columnists alike declare that being woke is simply being aware of social injustices and challenging racism and sexism. But if that is the case, where are the out and proud woke warriors? Where are the ‘I’m woke’ pin...
www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk
 
JJpool said:
You're seriously deluded, everyone knows woke exists, but it's just a name for some of the daft things that happen these days.

Maybe get out into the real world and open your eyes.

As long as we have some of the trans stuff, have 'chest feeders' and 'people who menstruate' etc, then it's just a few examples of woke. Pandering to tiny minorities in ways that affects the vast majority.

The lunatic left are all the same, denying things that don't affect them, like cancel culture, that's not real either apparently. Laughable.
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What is it about your, so called, 'woke' that scares you? I'm not being fascetious either.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
What is it about your, so called, 'woke' that scares you? I'm not being fascetious either.
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There are some worrying things.

There's just a lot of nonesense around, virtue signalling.

Should biological males be beating women in women's sports?

Should male rapists going into female prisons because they identify as a woman now?

Should kids be taught about 100 different genders and encouraged to change, with young impressionable minds?

Should they be taught about white privilege and made to feel guilty?

Should be promote critical race theory and see the whole world though the eyes of race?

Should politicians be struggling to ask the most basic questions about biological sex? They can wriggle out of anything and answer a question with 5 other questions, but ask that and suddenly they look ridiculous.

Etc etc. Let's not deny these things exist.
 
JJpool said:
There are some worrying things.

There's just a lot of nonesense around, virtue signalling.

Should biological males be beating women in women's sports?

Should male rapists going into female prisons because they identify as a woman now?

Should kids be taught about 100 different genders and encouraged to change, with young impressionable minds?

Should they be taught about white privilege and made to feel guilty?

Should be promote critical race theory and see the whole world though the eyes of race?

Should politicians be struggling to ask the most basic questions about biological sex? They can wriggle out of anything and answer a question with 5 other questions, but ask that and suddenly they look ridiculous.

Etc etc. Let's not deny these things exist.
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I think that the insistence you place on it is not that important.
 
www.thetimes.co.uk

Why Tory sleaze and migrant hotels make Blackpool a perfect target for Reform UK

The party believes it could be on the verge of a breakthrough at the by-election. Labour is expected to regain the seat, but all eyes will be on who comes second
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk

Reform UK hoping to inflict damage on Tories in Blackpool and beyond | Reform UK | The Guardian

Polls suggest party could eat into Tory vote in Lancashire town’s Westminster byelection as well as in mayoral and local elections
amp.theguardian.com amp.theguardian.com
 
JJpool said:
www.thetimes.co.uk

Why Tory sleaze and migrant hotels make Blackpool a perfect target for Reform UK

The party believes it could be on the verge of a breakthrough at the by-election. Labour is expected to regain the seat, but all eyes will be on who comes second
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk

Reform UK hoping to inflict damage on Tories in Blackpool and beyond | Reform UK | The Guardian

Polls suggest party could eat into Tory vote in Lancashire town’s Westminster byelection as well as in mayoral and local elections
amp.theguardian.com amp.theguardian.com
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Do you think that the Reform voter is closer to mirroring a Conservative voter or a Brexit voter?
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Do you think that the Reform voter is closer to mirroring a Conservative voter or a Brexit voter?
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Probably Brexit, but whoknows, there's elements of both and some are one and the same.

For me over never been a Tory, voted once for brexit.

I'd imagine Reform can, in time, capitalise on all, including those sick of the 2 party system, protest vote etc.

But whoknows.
 
JJpool said:
Probably Brexit, but whoknows, there's elements of both and some are one and the same.

For me over never been a Tory, voted once for brexit.

I'd imagine Reform can, in time, capitalise on all, including those sick of the 2 party system, protest vote etc.

But whoknows.
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Thanks. I was thinking that the Reform Party appeals more to poorer Brexit voters than it does to staunch Tories. In that sense I believe its appeal will attract more voters in the 'red wall' seats than in traditional Tory heartlands, where the main threat will come from the Lib Dems and (to a lesser extent) from Labour. In the more common 'swing' seats I expect Labour to do very well.
 
I consider myself a bit of a neutral in the woke/far right debate. I’m neither “of the left” or “of the right”, but find the debate interesting. For what it’s worth I used to live and work in the US (hence my username) and the term woke has been used there, primarily by black Americans, since the 1940’s. It’s now considered in the US to be a “skunk term”, demonised by non progressives therefore no longer widely used. The term far-right is following a similar path, no longer a term for falangists, nazis or fascists in general but an expanded meaning covering all non progressives. Political activists have always tried to redefine language to suit their narratives, but they all have shelf lives.
 
foggy said:
It would certainly reflect what has been happening for two years now. People saying that nobody really likes Labour all that much while they rack up some of the biggest by-election wins in UK parliamentary history on course to winning what is likely to be the largest majority for a single party in the era of universal suffrage.
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By people, there's the Mail, Telegraph, Sun, GB News and Lost Seasider
 
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Reform are Nazis led by that Tice prick. Surprised he hasn't rolled Farage in to stand as a publicity stunt.
If Chris Webb loses this Labour may as well give up.
 
Fargo99 said:
Reform are Nazis led by that Tice prick. Surprised he hasn't rolled Farage in to stand as a publicity stunt.
If Chris Webb loses this Labour may as well give up.
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Really how many millions of Jews have they gassed to date?

Pathetic and embarrassing comments comparing them to Nazis.
 
basilrobbie3 said:
We've been watching the C4 documentary "Defiance : Fighting the Far Right" this week. Obviously almost exclusively shown from the Asian / Bengali perspective but a very good reminder of what a casually racist society we were back then. Mainly born out of fear and ignorance that was cynically exploited - but still pretty ugly.

Those brain dead idiots giving Nazi salutes in Southall haven't gone away. They've just got older and more resentful about their total failure to take decent, fair-minded people with them. All of which seems to lead some of them to defend the indefensible, thus putting their personal inadequacies on show for all to see.
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WEll remember their slogan IF your white your alright. If your black you.ii go back. JEEZ.
 
I’m very left leaning as a person but there’s only so many times you can hear one man say “local born and bred” next to a giant picture of his own face
 

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Purely anecdotal but interesting.

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This guy was a former independent I think, says the Conservatives are finished.

Let's see if he's right.

You hear a bit of both depending where you look, an article that says it was all Labour, comments that say only the Reform guy was talked about at their work etc.

I've not seen that about any other parties, unless Conservative voters are keeping quiet.
 
Reform sound chippy and with a latest YouGov poll today has Tories plummeting to new depths even Truss didn't manage. If that poll is true and not an outlier it would certainly bring Blackpool South into the sort of territory where you expect Reform to come 2nd. Sounds like Labour will romp home with a dominant victory and the media will focus on who was the best loser because dominant Labour wins are boring now and they need a new narrative.
 
Just watching the BBC election results coming in.

Why is Kussenberg presenting this? Known Tory accolite. She's scoffing at Labour gains stating "well it's not as good as they claimed it would be" like a bitter Tory MP.
 
Reform will be the 'protest'vote for those pissed off with the norm, but they are in the news and being talked about so for them I think their aims are being achieved.
 
A result that shows Labour are underrepresented on here and Reform far overrepresented. Also a result that continues to show the idea people really want to vote for third parties is too simplistic. Labour at nearly 60% is massive. Tory vote plummeted and it nearly all went to Labour.

Pretty poor showing from Reform.

Cut through all the noise and we keep being shown people are voting for Labour in droves up and down the country no matter how desperately people try to shift the narrative away from that.
 
Really interesting to see such a poor voting number for Reform, although from a standing start 3k is maybe what they expected?

Was that the Reform candidate or as suggested that Reform appeals more to an over 60 white male demographic (represented on here)?
 
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Will Sunak call an election now? Results nationally are very poor for the Tories and it could prompt another leadership challenge. Sunak has said he would call an election in these circumstances. We do need one asap.
 
foggy said:
A result that shows Labour are underrepresented on here and Reform far overrepresented. Also a result that continues to show the idea people really want to vote for third parties is too simplistic. Labour at nearly 60% is massive. Tory vote plummeted and it nearly all went to Labour.

Pretty poor showing from Reform.

Cut through all the noise and we keep being shown people are voting for Labour in droves up and down the country no matter how desperately people try to shift the narrative away from that.
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the Labour Massive. . Sounds pretty good to me.
 
Oh great. Got to listen to Labour now harp on about how and what the Tories have done. Critchley as manager and Labour in Government. When will it end.
 
Goes to show there's no real appetite for Reform, they're a protest party, a home for disaffected Tories.

Reform supporters can cling to the naive hope that they see it as a new party, "building brand awareness", but Reform's DNA is UKIP and then the Brexit Party. Its owned by Farage, if anyone wants to vote for Farage's politics they know where to go.
 
Chunkylad said:
Really interesting to see such a poor voting number for Reform.

Was that the Reform candidate or as suggested that Reform appeals more to an over 60 white male demographic (represented on here)?
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Labour south is a Labour stronghold until the protest vote last time round at the GE.

The residents where never going to back Reform or Cons normal service has been resumed.
 
Lee Anderson just on the radio predicting Reform parliamentary seats in a GE based on last night. Is he nuts? Based on this they will get precisely zero seats.
 
A_Tense_Grin said:
Oh great. Got to listen to Labour now harp on about how and what the Tories have done. Critchley as manager and Labour in Government. When will it end.
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Because the tories have been so incredibly successful, improving lives for the majority over the last 14 years….the tories have done nothing for us and it’s time for change. It’s a shame that we will spend the next 5 years hearing the tories criticising Labour for what they do to unpick years of tory mismanagement and no doubt in 5 years time the turkeys will be voting for Christmas again….
 
Phil_bfc deux said:
it certainly isn't a far right racist political party

Did you know that if you were a previous member of the EDL, NF combat 18 etc you can't stand for Reform?

This Far Right tag gets thrown about far too much and its just lazy nonsense
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Ok, but you haven’t answered. What is it if it’s not a far right racist political party?

Don’t forget, their one and only MP was booted out of the Conservative Party for comments made about “islamists”. Hardly a ringing endorsement for a party that isn’t a far right or racist.
 
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