Covid growing exponentially

BigHandsOliverKahn

BigHandsOliverKahn

Well-known member
Not good news

Easy to be in the bubble of the current UK lull where we are at the bottom end of a wave but worldwide it's a very different story. Double mutation variants are now being found, where they can spread quicker and escape vaccines/antibodies and cases are now rising exponentially.

Make the most of any freedom you get in the next few weeks. This ride isn't over yet.
 
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What is vital is to ensure robust management of those who have to enter the country from abroad. Of course we require them to isolate through home quarantining.
Has anyone heard why Public Health England has then decided to go and disband the Dept responsible for conducting home checks so as to enforce compliance with quarantine? Must be a fuckin doozy of a reason.
 
The answer is to vaccinate the public and do with the approved vaccines that work.
The mutation fear is currently just that, fear. Current vaccines like AZ and Pfizer are stopping the transmission and hospitalisation as seen here in the UK.

I feel for the countries that are not getting the vaccine out there to their population- they need to make it clear to their politicians that this not acceptable.

Look how the US are getting on now Biden is on power and making it a priority. I hear there’s been robust conversations with Governor’s who’s states are lagging behind on roll out?
 
Is the OP's post true though?

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...ropean+Union~North+America~South+America~Asia

EU levels are about where they've been for the last 5 months, world levels are lower than at the start of the year and again there or thereabouts for the last 5 months.

South America is getting hit hard but North America is down over 50% from peak, Asia seems to be starting to show substantial number for the first time, although that's mostly driven by India rather than East Asia, which continues to appear to be immune to the virus.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Not good news

Easy to be in the bubble of the current UK lull where we are at the bottown end of a wave but worldwide it's a very different story. Double mutation variants are now being found, where they can spread quicker and escape vaccines/antibodies and cases are now rising exponentially.

Make the most of any freedom you get in the next few weeks. This ride isn't over yet.
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This is your 2nd worst post in history, but still won’t top “they are just waiting for the cheque to clear from the Premier League before we sign someone”.

“Double mutation variants” ha ha
 
Adams Kebab said:
This is your 2nd worst post in history, but still won’t top “they are just waiting for the cheque to clear from the Premier League before we sign someone”.

“Double mutation variants” ha ha
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That's what the WHO reported if you care to read the link and links from it. As for the waiting for Premier League money, that's what happened so not sure why you find that odd. Waiting for the PL money to come through
 
Dark_Side_of_the_Lune said:
What is vital is to ensure robust management of those who have to enter the country from abroad. Of course we require them to isolate through home quarantining.
Has anyone heard why Public Health England has then decided to go and disband the Dept responsible for conducting home checks so as to enforce compliance with quarantine? Must be a fuckin doozy of a reason.
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We've done such a good job of managing the borders because of Brexit giving us full control of course.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Is the OP's post true though?

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...ropean+Union~North+America~South+America~Asia

EU levels are about where they've been for the last 5 months, world levels are lower than at the start of the year and again there or thereabouts for the last 5 months.

South America is getting hit hard but North America is down over 50% from peak, Asia seems to be starting to show substantial number for the first time, although that's mostly driven by India rather than East Asia, which continues to appear to be immune to the virus.
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I listened to a lad on the world service last night basically saying that what the biggest issue is is there isn't a 'Marshall plan for vaccination' and that global numbers are growing fast. His argument was essentially that it's in the world's interest to stop acting nationally or regionally and start acting globally as mutations in high density populations are dangerous to all.
 
td53 said:
I listened to a lad on the world service last night basically saying that what the biggest issue is is there isn't a 'Marshall plan for vaccination' and that global numbers are growing fast. His argument was essentially that it's in the world's interest to stop acting nationally or regionally and start acting globally as mutations in high density populations are dangerous to all.
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Spot on. It's a global pandemic. Nations thinking they can beat this nation by nation are just being stupid. BBC news just mentioned how the WHO said the pandemic is still yet to hit its peak. Then you see shopping centres full and people saying "glad we are back to normal again" and you just know it's not going to take long before the next lockdown is needed here.

It's massively vital the rich countries start supplying the poorer countries with vaccines ASAP. Any countries that are hotspots around the world need to be prioritised with vaccines over other countries with less cases, regardless of rich or poor. Vaccines need deploying where they are most needed, not where people have the most wealth. There has to be a global solution to a global problem. It's no good putting the fire out in your own back garden if the fire keeps raging in the rest of your street.
 
It highlights what a nonsense the pause in the AZ vaccination has become in several countries, while thousands are dying every day. Seriously fcuked up sense of risk evaluation. Also, vaccine production should have stepped up by now. Certain areas are letting down the global attack against this virus.
 
Dark_Side_of_the_Lune said:
What is vital is to ensure robust management of those who have to enter the country from abroad. Of course we require them to isolate through home quarantining.
Has anyone heard why Public Health England has then decided to go and disband the Dept responsible for conducting home checks so as to enforce compliance with quarantine? Must be a fuckin doozy of a reason.
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Just arrived from the US yesterday. Checked Covid test paperwork in LA, checked when getting off the flight in Amsterdam, checked getting on the flight in Amsterdam and finally checked everything in Manchester, Covid , Covid test day 2 and 8 and the locator form.
complete opposite to arriving in December where I never even showed a passport as I came via Dublin.
In 24 hours I’ve had two telephone calls to check I’m isolating. So to those stating the borders are lax, not from my experience yesterday.
 
Goose said:
Just arrived from the US yesterday. Checked Covid test paperwork in LA, checked when getting off the flight in Amsterdam, checked getting on the flight in Amsterdam and finally checked everything in Manchester, Covid , Covid test day 2 and 8 and the locator form.
complete opposite to arriving in December where I never even showed a passport as I came via Dublin.
In 24 hours I’ve had two telephone calls to check I’m isolating. So to those stating the borders are lax, not from my experience yesterday.
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Welcome back
 
What a depressing thread we've had going shopping your thick, prepare for another lock down, need to vaccine the world but on the other hand it doesn't work, supply poor countries first not realising the rich countries are paying for it and need to generate the funds getting back to work by being vaccinated.

At some point we have to live with the virus but I wouldn't expect anything else from the usual doom-mongers.
 
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BigHandsOliverKahn said:
That's what the WHO reported if you care to read the link and links from it. As for the waiting for Premier League money, that's what happened so not sure why you find that odd. Waiting for the PL money to come through
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Well isn’t that insightful, could you forward it on to any future promoted teams who get to the PL just so they can plan their transfer activity in the summer, wouldn’t want them thinking they could spend any money or give their players their bonus before the money drops.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Is the OP's post true though?

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...ropean+Union~North+America~South+America~Asia

EU levels are about where they've been for the last 5 months, world levels are lower than at the start of the year and again there or thereabouts for the last 5 months.

South America is getting hit hard but North America is down over 50% from peak, Asia seems to be starting to show substantial number for the first time, although that's mostly driven by India rather than East Asia, which continues to appear to be immune to the virus.
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Most EU countries have a massive spike, it's only because the UK and Germany are at the lower end of the curve that it doesn't look any different. A few months ago we were contributing nearly 2500 more daily deaths between us than what we are now. Some of the smaller countries don't look that bad and you often miss just how bad their numbers are. Take Montenegro - 20 deaths in a day is the equivalent of the UK having around 2200 deaths. Bosnia 150 deaths is the equivalent of us having 3000 deaths. I have noticed a few bad days in some small countries which were the equivalent of the UK having 5000 daily deaths!

The far East has managed it well but the one to watch is Thailand, 3 consecutive days of nearly 1k infections so it will be interesting to see if they can really stay on top it with their robust system 👍
 
hertfordseasider said:
That’s because we have a lot of people in this country who are as thick as mince.
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Being happy to go shopping or that a little normality is returning is now classed as being thick as mince?

I loved seeing people out and about yesterday, Lytham was bouncing, Farmers and Spen Dyke outside areas packed, people socialising, enjoying themselves, that’s what humans are meant to do.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Spot on. It's a global pandemic. Nations thinking they can beat this nation by nation are just being stupid. BBC news just mentioned how the WHO said the pandemic is still yet to hit its peak. Then you see shopping centres full and people saying "glad we are back to normal again" and you just know it's not going to take long before the next lockdown is needed here.

It's massively vital the rich countries start supplying the poorer countries with vaccines ASAP. Any countries that are hotspots around the world need to be prioritised with vaccines over other countries with less cases, regardless of rich or poor. Vaccines need deploying where they are most needed, not where people have the most wealth. There has to be a global solution to a global problem. It's no good putting the fire out in your own back garden if the fire keeps raging in the rest of your street.
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If we’ve vaccinated 90% of the 99% who are hospitalised I’m struggling to see why we would need another lockdown, EVER.

It’s almost as if people love doom and gloom and negative news and to see others not being able to enjoy themselves and businesses struggle.


So weird.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Heathrow Arrivals
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A lot of these flights are bringing cargo in and very few passengers. 47 people on my flight yesterday and 13 on a Heathrow to Seattle flight a few weeks ago that a pal of mine was on.
I spoke to a stewardess and she said cargo is keeping them flying not people.
The majority are business people and essential workers with a couple of families, I’m assuming returning from funerals or other matters.
I tend not to believe a lot of what I’ve seen on the news recently regards travel. Airports are deserted.
 
avftt candidates for deprogramming making themselves known once again.
 
Some of you have forgotten what it was like to be young. 18-20 year olds have been spending the best part of their lives stuck in at home, when they should be (to quote the late great Kev Seed) 'ravin and misbehavin'. They haven't spent the last 30+ years in the boozer to the extent that it's no longer exciting and we just want to go home and get an early night. It's still fresh and interesting, and most importantly, a place for genuine socializing. It's making them happy. I can guarantee they'll be facing plenty of misery for the next couple of years when the economic hit of COVID really bites...

From my own experiences yesterday, I was positively bursting to visit the Chinese Health and Relaxation salon. Just seeing Sindy and Jasmine in their uniforms gave me an immediate lift after so many months away and the huge wave that washed over me when the ladies got to the ending of their treatments left me very happy indeed.
 
I am not blaming or praising the Government or anybody but I am of the opinion that in the future we will laugh - maybe that's not the word - at the overreaction to this virus.

Great to see folk getting on with their lives yesterday.
 
td53 said:
I listened to a lad on the world service last night basically saying that what the biggest issue is is there isn't a 'Marshall plan for vaccination' and that global numbers are growing fast. His argument was essentially that it's in the world's interest to stop acting nationally or regionally and start acting globally as mutations in high density populations are dangerous to all.
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Is that true though?

There's the Covax programme, with the UK pleding £500m, there's the Ox/AZ vaccine developed by the UK and made available to the world at cost, if that's "vaccine nationalism" then more of the same please.

There's a counterpoint that if countries (and companies) that invested heavily in vaccine development and production don't see a return then nobody gets any vaccines, and the UK's domestic production is far too small to make an impact on a global scale anyway.

In fact the biggest mistake the EC made was not investing in production early, which has left EU production far behind where it could've been, so in that respect the right sort of "vaccine nationalism" would've been a good thing, both for the EU and the rest of the world.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Is that true though?

There's the Covax programme, with the UK pleding £500m, there's the Ox/AZ vaccine developed by the UK and made available to the world at cost, if that's "vaccine nationalism" then more of the same please.

There's a counterpoint that if countries (and companies) that invested heavily in vaccine development and production don't see a return then nobody gets any vaccines, and the UK's domestic production is far too small to make an impact on a global scale anyway.

In fact the biggest mistake the EC made was not investing in production early, which has left EU production far behind where it could've been, so in that respect the right sort of "vaccine nationalism" would've been a good thing, both for the EU and the rest of the world.
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I can't see any other approach than getting your own house in order and when you've done that, you move onto helping others. It's a planning and logistics operation ultimately and you have to build from the base up.
 
There’s a degree of people in glass houses here. When the UK was in its darkest hours in relation to Covid and was under control in mainland Europe - the tone was very different.
UK was vilified, our drivers treated like leper’s and constant media barrage. The vaccination program here is excellent - it’s an example of how to do things properly which other countries either have not followed or only just now getting it right (USA).
This isn’t a pro government message either, as I’m appalled how everything prior to vaccination was handled even without hindsight, but it’s a fact that Germany has got it badly wrong and UK got it very right.

My friends in Germany and ex work colleagues there keep telling me more and more stories of the sort that would make Cats head implode if the Tories had done the same.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Spot on. It's a global pandemic. Nations thinking they can beat this nation by nation are just being stupid. BBC news just mentioned how the WHO said the pandemic is still yet to hit its peak. Then you see shopping centres full and people saying "glad we are back to normal again" and you just know it's not going to take long before the next lockdown is needed here.

It's massively vital the rich countries start supplying the poorer countries with vaccines ASAP. Any countries that are hotspots around the world need to be prioritised with vaccines over other countries with less cases, regardless of rich or poor. Vaccines need deploying where they are most needed, not where people have the most wealth. There has to be a global solution to a global problem. It's no good putting the fire out in your own back garden if the fire keeps raging in the rest of your street.
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Wealthy nations are doing both, ensuring their own citizens are vaccinated, whilst at the same time looking to support the nations you allude to. Getting the machinery of the global economy moving benefits everyone.

Many smaller and less wealthy nations have done fantastically well, because they have adopted and followed strict protocols. I offer most Caribbean nations as an example, where the loss of tourism has impacted massively, yet they have good control, despite relatively few being vaccinated.

In contrast, other nations have not adopted strict protocols and their citizens have gone on with life and gatherings as normal. How are wealthy nations responsible for that?
 
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We controlled Covid19 very well here in Oz - it's just that we've completely stuffed up the vaccination program..
 
Lost Seasider said:
Is that true though?

There's the Covax programme, with the UK pleding £500m, there's the Ox/AZ vaccine developed by the UK and made available to the world at cost, if that's "vaccine nationalism" then more of the same please.

There's a counterpoint that if countries (and companies) that invested heavily in vaccine development and production don't see a return then nobody gets any vaccines, and the UK's domestic production is far too small to make an impact on a global scale anyway.

In fact the biggest mistake the EC made was not investing in production early, which has left EU production far behind where it could've been, so in that respect the right sort of "vaccine nationalism" would've been a good thing, both for the EU and the rest of the world.
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As well as the Covax program we're going to have millions of spare vaccines we've already paid for to help the rest of the world.
 
TangerineMorph said:
Most EU countries have a massive spike, it's only because the UK and Germany are at the lower end of the curve that it doesn't look any different. A few months ago we were contributing nearly 2500 more daily deaths between us than what we are now. Some of the smaller countries don't look that bad and you often miss just how bad their numbers are. Take Montenegro - 20 deaths in a day is the equivalent of the UK having around 2200 deaths. Bosnia 150 deaths is the equivalent of us having 3000 deaths. I have noticed a few bad days in some small countries which were the equivalent of the UK having 5000 daily deaths!
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Eastern Europe is undoubtedly getting hammered in this wave, a lot of them have suffered worse deaths per capita than us now, worse still they largely avoided the first wave so all of that is concentrated in the second wave and I dont trust the numbers either (probably add on 50% for some).

That said none of this is new and the picture is not uniform, France and Sweden have peaks at the moment, but are well below where we (and Spain) were in January, Spain and Portugal are well down from peak, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands are unremarkable (the last fairly high though), Germany is high by their standards but still relatively low.

Of course none of this is good news, but the original post implied that things were getting much worse and claimed that cases were rising exponentially, but globally this is simply not true, we're largely where we've been for the last 6 months.
 
Our ability to get vaccinated has a lot to do with AZ being a British company and having British manufacturing facilities. There was no way in the world the government was going to allow vaccines to leave the country before we had got going with the program. It's been a good approach and it's been aided by having no ties to other countries (as would have been the case if we were still in the EU), but i do feel as though that based on the circumstances, it was harder to fuck it up than get it right. Still been positive though so credit where it's due.
 
straightatthewall said:
but i do feel as though that based on the circumstances, it was harder to fuck it up than get it right.
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Quite the opposite, it would've been very easy to f*** it up (just ask the EU), and it was very difficult to get right, had Ox/AZ failed (like Sanofi/GSK) we might have been in a very different place.

We started out with next to no vaccine manufacturing capacity, they had to build it pretty much from scratch including the supply chains, that was an enourmous undertaking.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Quite the opposite, it would've been very easy to f*** it up (just ask the EU), and it was very difficult to get right, had Ox/AZ failed (like Sanofi/GSK) we might have been in a very different place.

We started out with next to no vaccine manufacturing capacity, they had to build it pretty much from scratch including the supply chains, that was an enourmous undertaking.
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So you're telling me that AstraZeneca had no existing infrastructure or supply chain connections to call upon before it started manufacturing the vaccine?
 
straightatthewall said:
So you're telling me that AstraZeneca had no existing infrastructure or supply chain connections to call upon before it started manufacturing the vaccine?
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Not for vaccines AFAIK, they're new at the game, in fact the UK production is being made by Oxford Biomedica and Cobra Biologics in Keele, with the fill and finish down in Wrexham, and I don't think either of those were originally involved in vaccine production at scale either.

It's a similar story in Europe, their production is in existing facilities and AZ have just contracted for production.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Not for vaccines AFAIK, they're new at the game, in fact the UK production is being made by Oxford Biomedica and Cobra Biologics in Keele, with the fill and finish down in Wrexham, and I don't think either of those were originally involved in vaccine production at scale either.

It's a similar story in Europe, their production is in existing facilities and AZ have just contracted for production.
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A lot of the infrastructure and supply chain parts will be the same as they have in place for other products produced. The focus will have simply been around refits and making things work. The key element was always around getting an effective vaccine and rolling it out to scale. AstraZeneca are a major pharmaceutical company and will have had no problem doing it, especially with government finance to utilize. To imply it's an operation that has been created 'from scratch' is just not accurate in the true sense. Appreciate you may not have said it to be deliberately misleading.
 
straightatthewall said:
A lot of the infrastructure and supply chain parts will be the same as they have in place for other products produced. The focus will have simply been around refits and making things work. The key element was always around getting an effective vaccine and rolling it out to scale. AstraZeneca are a major pharmaceutical company and will have had no problem doing it, especially with government finance to utilize. To imply it's an operation that has been created 'from scratch' is just not accurate in the true sense. Appreciate you may not have said it to be deliberately misleading.
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I'm not an expert in the area but my understanding is that the processes are completely different, the AZ vaccine is created by growing a live product in a bioreactor and then separating it out "it's more like brewing" is how I've heard it explained, rather than the sort of chemical engineering AZ normally does (long in the past AZ was part of ICI).

I said "pretty much from scratch", obviously some of the infrastructure already existed, we're lucky that the Wrexham bottling plant opened just before the pandemic hit, otherwise we could be relying upon the EU for fill and finish, the productions facilities in Oxford and Keele are separate companies that normally work in the gene therapy field but have the bioreactors and have been repurposed for vaccine production.

My point it that the vaccine programme was not the simple task you seemed to imply it was, in fact it was increadibly challenging and something that few if any other countries have managed to pull off.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Eastern Europe is undoubtedly getting hammered in this wave, a lot of them have suffered worse deaths per capita than us now, worse still they largely avoided the first wave so all of that is concentrated in the second wave and I dont trust the numbers either (probably add on 50% for some).

That said none of this is new and the picture is not uniform, France and Sweden have peaks at the moment, but are well below where we (and Spain) were in January, Spain and Portugal are well down from peak, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands are unremarkable (the last fairly high though), Germany is high by their standards but still relatively low.

Of course none of this is good news, but the original post implied that things were getting much worse and claimed that cases were rising exponentially, but globally this is simply not true, we're largely where we've been for the last 6 months.
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It will be frightening to see how many daily deaths India gets in their second wave. I fully expect 5 to 6 thousand a day within the next 4 weeks. Not good at all 👎
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Not good news

Easy to be in the bubble of the current UK lull where we are at the bottom end of a wave but worldwide it's a very different story. Double mutation variants are now being found, where they can spread quicker and escape vaccines/antibodies and cases are now rising exponentially.

Make the most of any freedom you get in the next few weeks. This ride isn't over yet.
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I bet you are fun at a party 🙄
Project fear indeed, what would be your long term strategy then? Oh and where does the money come from to fund years of furlough and business support that this would cause
 
You love all this doom mongering don't you. I seem to remember you taking some perverse pleasure in stating that the number of Covid deaths in England could fill Wembley Stadium. Weird
 
The bigger story here is why isn't India one of the red list countries given the scale of the problems there? Pakistan and Bangladesh are on the list.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Covid variant first detected in India is found in the UK - Times of India

UK News: NEW DELHI: A highly infectious new double mutant Covid-19 variant that was first detected in India has now been found in the UK sparking calls for Bor.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Speculation is that Johnson doesn't want to jeopardise trade trip that he hopes will lead to a trade deal with India before the EU agrees one.
He has to put public health first, anything else is insane given the sacrifices we have already made.
 
Old_Laytonian said:
You love all this doom mongering don't you. I seem to remember you taking some perverse pleasure in stating that the number of Covid deaths in England could fill Wembley Stadium. Weird
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There was no perverse pleasure except in the minds of those who went looking for it.

If facing up to the reality of this situation makes you feel uncomfortable, maybe you're too used to running from the truth.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
The bigger story here is why isn't India one of the red list countries given the scale of the problems there? Pakistan and Bangladesh are on the list.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Covid variant first detected in India is found in the UK - Times of India

UK News: NEW DELHI: A highly infectious new double mutant Covid-19 variant that was first detected in India has now been found in the UK sparking calls for Bor.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Speculation is that Johnson doesn't want to jeopardise trade trip that he hopes will lead to a trade deal with India before the EU agrees one.
He has to put public health first, anything else is insane given the sacrifices we have already made.
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India supplied a lot of our AZ vaccines. They are also one of the biggest manufacturers of pharmaceutical products. We depend on them more than most people realise.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
One of the double mutant variants has now arrived in the UK. That didn't take long. Maybe those who scoffed at this post giving early warning will now begin to take it seriously.

Double Mutant
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You might be pitching one in your Lonsdale undies over a “double mutation virus” but we’ve had this scaremongering over the SA and the Kent variant which was then dismissed, fear sells and it obviously gets you excited, weirdly.

The only variant to brick it from is the Legoland one.
 
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