Frexit, Italexit, Grexit etc.

[ElBurroSinNombre]

Looks like all of the Brexiteer soothsayers on here who were predicting the break-up of the EU after Brexit were 100% wrong again. Brexit has actually made the EU stronger;

Collapse in support for leaving EU in member states since Brexit, new data shows

Survey confirms a trend in politics that has seen eurosceptic political forces moderate their positions

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Mexboroseasider]

Looks like all of the Brexiteer soothsayers on here who were predicting the break-up of the EU after Brexit were 100% wrong again. Brexit has actually made the EU stronger;

Collapse in support for leaving EU in member states since Brexit, new data shows

Survey confirms a trend in politics that has seen eurosceptic political forces moderate their positions

www.irishtimes.com

Trammo has been forecasting the collapse of the EU for as long as I’ve been on here.

But just you wait!!!!

ANY MOMENT NOW!!!!

 

[TSSeasider]

Full disclosure required I guess.

The ESS is funded by the EU

Funding | European Social Survey (ESS)

www.europeansocialsurvey.org

With results published by the well known Eurosceptic paper the Irish Times....

Ignoring the obvious potential for accusations of bias in both funding and publishing; my guess is it's probably cyclical.

A survey taken at a time when the UK was having a completely unnecessary ding dong with the EU, is bound to make people think twice - there are some who suggested that the EU positions were deliberately designed to 'punish' the UK to put other nations off leaving - in which case, they have succeeded in their primary aim.

I'm not so sure that's the true reason for a declining desire to leave the EU. I think desire for change is cyclical. High points of a desire to leave are when economies are thriving and things are going well - low points are when you feel membership shelters you from the worst of whatever is happening (this survey was done during Covid and the war in Ukraine and the EU/UK bun fight). Structural funds to net beneficiaries are quite the sweetener during times of uncertainty.

Although I don't foresee a time of EU collapse, I do wonder how long they will tolerate Hungary (in particular) mind. I expect the EU are playing the long game; expecting that Hungarians will eventually vote a different leader in and therefore may get back to being happy to be part of all the structures of the EU and not just the juicy bits which are income generators for them.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

At the time of Brexit I foresaw a movement away from the EU by a number of countries under the pressure of their far-right political movements. This latest trend in the opposite direction is, I believe, less to do with the failings of Brexit and more to do with the Russian aggression in the East.

 

[Wizaard]

Looks like all of the Brexiteer soothsayers on here who were predicting the break-up of the EU after Brexit were 100% wrong again. Brexit has actually made the EU stronger;

Collapse in support for leaving EU in member states since Brexit, new data shows

Survey confirms a trend in politics that has seen eurosceptic political forces moderate their positions

www.irishtimes.com

Funny how they all see it as a shitshow and a salient lesson to them all, while here, some are still arguing it's a temporary blip and their mate who knows someone who owns a shop is unaffected...

 

[Brazil]

Looks like all of the Brexiteer soothsayers on here who were predicting the break-up of the EU after Brexit were 100% wrong again. Brexit has actually made the EU stronger;

Collapse in support for leaving EU in member states since Brexit, new data shows

Survey confirms a trend in politics that has seen eurosceptic political forces moderate their positions

www.irishtimes.com

Just read the same. The EU is going nowhere. Well done, Brexiteers, for strengthening support for the EU.

 

[Brazil]

Full disclosure required I guess.

The ESS is funded by the EU

Funding | European Social Survey (ESS)

www.europeansocialsurvey.org

With results published by the well known Eurosceptic paper the Irish Times....

Ignoring the obvious potential for accusations of bias in both funding and publishing; my guess is it's probably cyclical.

A survey taken at a time when the UK was having a completely unnecessary ding dong with the EU, is bound to make people think twice - there are some who suggested that the EU positions were deliberately designed to 'punish' the UK to put other nations off leaving - in which case, they have succeeded in their primary aim.

I'm not so sure that's the true reason for a declining desire to leave the EU. I think desire for change is cyclical. High points of a desire to leave are when economies are thriving and things are going well - low points are when you feel membership shelters you from the worst of whatever is happening (this survey was done during Covid and the war in Ukraine and the EU/UK bun fight). Structural funds to net beneficiaries are quite the sweetener during times of uncertainty.

Although I don't foresee a time of EU collapse, I do wonder how long they will tolerate Hungary (in particular) mind. I expect the EU are playing the long game; expecting that Hungarians will eventually vote a different leader in and therefore may get back to being happy to be part of all the structures of the EU and not just the juicy bits which are income generators for them.

That's a good post.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

Looks like all of the Brexiteer soothsayers on here who were predicting the break-up of the EU after Brexit were 100% wrong again. Brexit has actually made the EU stronger;

Collapse in support for leaving EU in member states since Brexit, new data shows

Survey confirms a trend in politics that has seen eurosceptic political forces moderate their positions

www.irishtimes.com

I dont think it has made the EU stronger, what it has done is make euro skeptics in other european countries consider their oppositional stance, because the public in these countries see how fucked the uk is. The state of the uk and its degeneration is now a frequent item on the news here in Spain, and the question is often how did the UK allow this to happen.

The structural weaknesses in the EU, have i think been made worse by Brexit and the push by dogmatic EU bureaucrats and politicians towards greater poitical alliances possibly towards some form of federalism will only expose those weaknesses more. The inability of the EU to deal with big issues, it hasn't dealt with Poland and its judicial issues, nor Hungary and the problems there, although sanctions against Russia are significant, the infighting between Germany wanting exceptions for energy, the italians wanting exceptions for luxury goods, the french wanting exceptions for their wine etc etc is a clear example of the issues with trying to politically and culturally align almost 30 countries under one banner. The US has been trying for a quarter century and it is as disparate as it has ever been.

The Euro is a structurally weak currency, the back stop (the german economy) is under-securitised by about 80-90%, and the relationship between the euro, its global importance and the importance of EU trade is a risk to the whole edifice. If expansion of the EU is still on the cards and that seems to be the way it is going, countries coming in will put the Euro under increasing pressure. What EU politicians want is fo rthe euro to replace the dollar or at least acquire equivalence with the dollar as a global reserve currency, and it aint going to happen unless the US goes completely belly up.

I was of the opinion originally that the UK leaving would increase the tendency towards EU federalism, and im still of that opinion, that in itself might be the long term risk of the EU. The problems in the UK (when viewed as a yardstick) and in russia and political turmoil in the states is probably giving EU leaders a bit of respite from actually dealing with its internal problems.

 

[Mexboroseasider]

I dont think it has made the EU stronger, what it has done is make euro skeptics in other european countries consider their oppositional stance, because the public in these countries see how fucked the uk is. The state of the uk and its degeneration is now a frequent item on the news here in Spain, and the question is often how did the UK allow this to happen.

The structural weaknesses in the EU, have i think been made worse by Brexit and the push by dogmatic EU bureaucrats and politicians towards greater poitical alliances possibly towards some form of federalism will only expose those weaknesses more. The inability of the EU to deal with big issues, it hasn't dealt with Poland and its judicial issues, nor Hungary and the problems there, although sanctions against Russia are significant, the infighting between Germany wanting exceptions for energy, the italians wanting exceptions for luxury goods, the french wanting exceptions for their wine etc etc is a clear example of the issues with trying to politically and culturally align almost 30 countries under one banner. The US has been trying for a quarter century and it is as disparate as it has ever been.

The Euro is a structurally weak currency, the back stop (the german economy) is under-securitised by about 80-90%, and the relationship between the euro, its global importance and the importance of EU trade is a risk to the whole edifice. If expansion of the EU is still on the cards and that seems to be the way it is going, countries coming in will put the Euro under increasing pressure. What EU politicians want is fo rthe euro to replace the dollar or at least acquire equivalence with the dollar as a global reserve currency, and it aint going to happen unless the US goes completely belly up.

I was of the opinion originally that the UK leaving would increase the tendency towards EU federalism, and im still of that opinion, that in itself might be the long term risk of the EU. The problems in the UK (when viewed as a yardstick) and in russia and political turmoil in the states is probably giving EU leaders a bit of respite from actually dealing with its internal problems.

I think that’s a fair summary of the challenges the EU faces.

But to claim that the very fact the EU faces such challenges is a sign that the whole project is fundamentally flawed, is missing the point (I know you aren’t saying that by the way, but some people do).

By definition any political institution is going to face challenges that it has to try to resolve. In fact that’s what it exists to do!

 

[basilrobbie3]

I think that’s a fair summary of the challenges the EU faces.

But to claim that the very fact the EU faces such challenges is a sign that the whole project is fundamentally flawed, is missing the point (I know you aren’t saying that by the way, but some people do).

By definition any political institution is going to face challenges that it has to try to resolve. In fact that’s what it exists to do!

I think it is a good post by CP as well. But I agree with your main point too, Mex.

Wanting to work collaboratively in your regional sphere is not necessarily political federalism, albeit it might look a lot like it. I'd argue that given the twin threats from the East, the mainland Europeans and / or NATO Members would be mad if they weren't looking for the political, military and economic comfort that comes from being part of a wider alliance.

The war in Ukraine has arguably done us some favours, in that it has kept us tied closer to the EU than we otherwise would have been. I don't think we will feel any economic benefit (that boat has already sailed), but politically it is making us more relevant than we probably deserve to be.

 

[TSSeasider]

I think it is a good post by CP as well. But I agree with your main point too, Mex.

Wanting to work collaboratively in your regional sphere is not necessarily political federalism, albeit it might look a lot like it. I'd argue that given the twin threats from the East, the mainland Europeans and / or NATO Members would be mad if they weren't looking for the political, military and economic comfort that comes from being part of a wider alliance.

The war in Ukraine has arguably done us some favours, in that it has kept us tied closer to the EU than we otherwise would have been. I don't think we will feel any economic benefit (that boat has already sailed), but politically it is making us more relevant than we probably deserve to be.

Your last line makes no sense.

We are relevant because we deserve to be; the fact that we we've been supporting Ukraine for years military, and then backed it up when they were invaded, kind of demonstrates why we are relevant.

Those decisions were political - and right

 

[Matesrates]

Who knows what the situation would be if the pandemic and Ukraine hadn’t happened, those two events have strengthened the European togetherness.

 

[ElBurroSinNombre]

At the time of Brexit I foresaw a movement away from the EU by a number of countries under the pressure of their far-right political movements. This latest trend in the opposite direction is, I believe, less to do with the failings of Brexit and more to do with the Russian aggression in the East.

Brexit and the war in Ukraine are, to me, very much linked together. A strategic aim of Russia is to create division in the western world and the extent to which they have infiltrated our [and European] political establishment is a key part of this. And of course, Russia also funded a part of the Leave campaign through Aaron Banks and interfered in the election through cyber campaigning. They got the result that Putin wanted which has caused instability and damaged relations between the UK and our military allies - their strategic aim. In all of this, Johnson [and Farage for that matter] appears to have taken the role of a useful idiot for Russian interests.
So with the EU and UK distracted by the effects of pandemic and the chaos caused by Brexit, it was a good time for Russia to invade Ukraine.
Fortunately Europe, including the UK, has managed a fairly unified response to the invasion despite relations being at a 50 year low.

 

[basilrobbie3]

Your last line makes no sense.

We are relevant because we deserve to be; the fact that we we've been supporting Ukraine for years military, and then backed it up when they were invaded, kind of demonstrates why we are relevant.

Those decisions were political - and right

I agree with your last sentence.

As for the rest, it makes perfect sense to me. If Ukraine doesn't happen we would be cast adrift on all fronts by now, mainly because of our own rank stupidity.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

Brexit and the war in Ukraine are, to me, very much linked together. A strategic aim of Russia is to create division in the western world and the extent to which they have infiltrated our [and European] political establishment is a key part of this. And of course, Russia also funded a part of the Leave campaign through Aaron Banks and interfered in the election through cyber campaigning. They got the result that Putin wanted which has caused instability and damaged relations between the UK and our military allies - their strategic aim. In all of this, Johnson [and Farage for that matter] appears to have taken the role of a useful idiot for Russian interests.
So with the EU and UK distracted by the effects of pandemic and the chaos caused by Brexit, it was a good time for Russia to invade Ukraine.
Fortunately Europe, including the UK, has managed a fairly unified response to the invasion despite relations being at a 50 year low.

Oh yes, 100%. From a Russian perspective I think you are bang on. I was looking at it from the western perspective. Those countries, (Italy, Germany, France), that have burgeoning far right movements have been forced to think again about the threat from the East. Whilst xenophobic nationalism in Europe has not yet run its course, the bulwark against Russia lies in the EU and NATO. I think Europeans are waking up to this.

 

[TSSeasider]

Oh yes, 100%. From a Russian perspective I think you are bang on. I was looking at it from the western perspective. Those countries, (Italy, Germany, France), that have burgeoning far right movements have been forced to think again about the threat from the East. Whilst xenophobic nationalism in Europe has not yet run its course, the bulwark against Russia lies in the EU and NATO. I think Europeans are waking up to this.

Given how the two largest Nations in the EU acted during the build up and start of the war, I'm not convinced the EU is that much of a help. They certainly were for appeasement of Russia and they still aren't 100% committed to supporting Ukraine militarily and have an eye on the Nathan interest.

Germany have been a facilitator of Russia for some time (in the same way London had been a facilitator of the Oligarchs) which tainted their response.

NATO definitely is a help.

 

[TSSeasider]

I agree with your last sentence.

As for the rest, it makes perfect sense to me. If Ukraine doesn't happen we would be cast adrift on all fronts by now, mainly because of our own rank stupidity.

I think Ukraine is just a gentle reminder that we are relevant in a wide range of spheres and not wanting a close relationship with us is rank stupidity.

 

[Shearer9]

Looks like all of the Brexiteer soothsayers on here who were predicting the break-up of the EU after Brexit were 100% wrong again. Brexit has actually made the EU stronger;

Collapse in support for leaving EU in member states since Brexit, new data shows

Survey confirms a trend in politics that has seen eurosceptic political forces moderate their positions

www.irishtimes.com

Ha ha ha, this has to be the most deluded post yet. And there’s been some whoppers

 

[spudgun]

I think Ukraine is just a gentle reminder that we are relevant in a wide range of spheres and not wanting a close relationship with us is rank stupidity.

That line of thinking is getting close to a notion of `English exceptionalism`, and any `rank stupidity` was obviously instigated by our self.

 

[20togo]

That line of thinking is getting close to a notion of `English exceptionalism`, and any `rank stupidity` was obviously instigated by our self.

a bit like Putin being "risk averse" eh!

 

[Costero Poderoso]

I think that’s a fair summary of the challenges the EU faces.

But to claim that the very fact the EU faces such challenges is a sign that the whole project is fundamentally flawed, is missing the point (I know you aren’t saying that by the way, but some people do).

By definition any political institution is going to face challenges that it has to try to resolve. In fact that’s what it exists to do!

I think political and by default cultural unions are by their very nature fundamentally flawed, I've always felt the EU should be a trading Union amongst relatively like minded nations or at least nations that share core rights, freedom of speech, press, judiciary etc. Beyond that trying to align Greece and Germany for example in cultural, political and economic terms is the definition of madness.

 

[Always tangerine]

I think political and by default cultural unions are by their very nature fundamentally flawed, I've always felt the EU should be a trading Union amongst relatively like minded nations or at least nations that share core rights, freedom of speech, press, judiciary etc. Beyond that trying to align Greece and Germany for example in cultural, political and economic terms is the definition of madness.

Im not sure what you mean by cultural alignment Have there been any moves to align or unify European countries on a cultural level ? What we have lost with leaving the EU are schemes such as Erasmus, loss of free movement and its effect on specific areas such as musicians.
Also reduced exchange with EU countries eg in science and research.
I think we benefited greatly through EU legislation neong incorporated into UK law eg employment rights such as the statutory right to paid holidays and environmental protections.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

Im not sure what you mean by cultural alignment Have there been any moves to align or unify European countries on a cultural level ? What we have lost with leaving the EU are schemes such as Erasmus, loss of free movement and its effect on specific areas such as musicians.
Also reduced exchange with EU countries eg in science and research.
I think we benefited greatly through EU legislation neong incorporated into UK law eg employment rights such as the statutory right to paid holidays and environmental protections.

Political alignment has cultural consequences. Expecting German work ethic or productivity in southern Spain or Greece for example is an expectation of cultural homogeny. Even expecting fiscal responsibility across let's say Germany and Greece requires cultural alignment, Germans have an entirely different attitude to fiscal management, debt, tax, public works etc than they do in Greece.

I'm a massive supporter of the EU, and I still don't understand how brexiters can't see the issues leaving has created and will create in the future, the defining principles of freedom of movement trade and finance had so many benefits, but I also see big issues with EU political expansion, and I don't think they are beneficial to anyone bar a few massive corporate interests.

 

[1966_and_all_that]

I think political and by default cultural unions are by their very nature fundamentally flawed, I've always felt the EU should be a trading Union amongst relatively like minded nations or at least nations that share core rights, freedom of speech, press, judiciary etc. Beyond that trying to align Greece and Germany for example in cultural, political and economic terms is the definition of madness.

Yes, I have to agree regarding the economic alignment. But then, is that not already the case in the UK? London overheats whilst the old industrial towns and the rural fringes lie fallow. There's no getting away from the fact that economies gravitate towards the large areas of demand. Where the EU came a cropper was in trying to unify the currencies. This has caused the fringes to fail badly.

 

[Costero Poderoso]

I think there is a difference between economic performance and economic alignment ie having economies homogenised. EU countries are not particularly aligned in regards to their economies, they have different tax rates and systems, different economic priorities. im not sure what economies gravitating to demand means, people gravitate to wealth and economic success, which creates pockets of economic high performance, but London still operates within the same economic model as blackpool, tax systems etc. I do get the point that most western economic models are similar in that they are largely supply side models, with all the pitfalls that entails.

I'd agree about the euro, even though i thought it was a good idea when first mooted and introduced, That was mostly to do with personal convenience. The big problem with the euro was initially only three or four countries within the EU met the criteria to join the currency, and two of those didnt join. secondly the euro has never had a proper central bank, so it is structurally risky in comparison to the dollar, although from a currency trading point of view it seems to make no difference. and then of course there is the problem that individual central banks in EU countries no longer have financial control. Im of the opinion now that EU countries should have all been dual currency with a non tradable national currency, which has the ability to fluctuate against the euro periodically to account for economic ups and downs. Ive seen in the past that sweden if its joins the euro wants a nationally backed crypto currency to run alongside it, not sure if thats still a thing, but thought it was interesting at the time.

 

[Shearer9]

Good to read a these good arguments for Brexit, seems it’s sinking in to even the most ardent of remainiacs

 

[Lost Seasider]

The elephant in the room is the Euro, which is still a time-bomb ticking away waiting to explode, if/when it does then all bets are off.