Going against the data and the science

C

cruzzer

Well-known member
The government is breaking its own promise to be guided by the data.

They are going against the majority of the scientific advisors who are saying releasing the population to their own devices is extremely reckless.

My source, a senior scientific advisor has been fired for his overly vocal criticism.
 
The decision is being made now so parliament can go on holiday with no restrictions. That means this crazy decision will not be reviewed until they’re back in September.
 
Chunkylad said:
Does suggest that he mask is a crutch that offers little benefit? There’s no way Vallance would sit inside without a mask if there risk was real.

That said we do know that Covid does not affect the wealthy and is purely the scourge of the poor
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Indeed it doesn’t and that’s why a certain megastar (according to himself) can get tickets and attend major events all on one day, Wimbledon and Euro 2020 final.
 
No matter what the data says.........................how long can we keep these controls in place realistically?
 
EagleDay said:
No matter what the data says.........................how long can we keep these controls in place realistically?
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Well we can’t. There has to be a release and the largely vaccinated population is that point. Should have been done a few weeks ago imo.
Oh, and they can stop releasing test data as well, unless there’s a variant of significance we need to know about.
 
EagleDay said:
No matter what the data says.........................how long can we keep these controls in place realistically?
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I think the key point is that no other date is likely to be any better and may in fact be worse.

Delaying by another month puts you into the schools/universities going back, after that you're heading into the autumn/winter flu season so it's really a choice between now or April next year.
 
cruzzer said:
The government is breaking its own promise to be guided by the data.

They are going against the majority of the scientific advisors who are saying releasing the population to their own devices is extremely reckless.

My source, a senior scientific advisor has been fired for his overly vocal criticism.
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It's a big experiment. No country has dropped all precautions at the same time the case numbers are shooting up exponentially. All eggs are being put in the vaccine basket despite knowing the vaccine won't protect everyone. Very negligent.
 
Until we see a dramatic rise with deaths then I wouldn't be concerned. Currently the deaths are stable at around 30-35 a day. I'd personally stop posting the amount of cases.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
It's a big experiment. No country has dropped all precautions at the same time the case numbers are shooting up exponentially. All eggs are being put in the vaccine basket despite knowing the vaccine won't protect everyone. Very negligent.
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It’s only negligence if deaths rise significantly or the NHS is overwhelmed.

If neither happen and The vaccine holds tight we can raise tax revenues, improve mental health, educate children, get people treated finally on the NHS for so many ailments that are ruining their lives, create jobs, create hope, create fun and pleasure.

It’s a gamble - we will know pretty soon whether we should have stuck or twisted.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
It's a big experiment. No country has dropped all precautions at the same time the case numbers are shooting up exponentially. All eggs are being put in the vaccine basket despite knowing the vaccine won't protect everyone. Very negligent.
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Let's be clear, we're not dropping all precautions at the same time, this is the end of a 4 month process of relaxation and even then there's likely to be continued voluntary precautions in place and of course test and trace.

In fact it would be negligent to not remove the precautions at this stage, since this would in fact push the next wave into the autumn/winter RV season when there is likely to be substantial pressure on the NHS anyway.

Finally, the Chief Medical Officer says that you are wrong.
 
Chunkylad said:
It’s only negligence if deaths rise significantly or the NHS is overwhelmed.

If neither happen and The vaccine holds tight we can raise tax revenues, improve mental health, educate children, get people treated finally on the NHS for so many ailments that are ruining their lives, create jobs, create hope, create fun and pleasure.

It’s a gamble - we will know pretty soon whether we should have stuck or twisted.
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The problem though is that the vaccine only does a good job at reduction but isn't 100% effective and to some people not effective at all. The estimate is between 1,000 and 2,000 hospitalisations per day by mid-August and with long covid patients taking up time and resources for months or years, I'm not sure how letting people ignore all previous precautions will help waiting lists for other ailments. Going into autumn, when education opens back up, with already high numbers from the summer amounts to a gamble on herd immunity and the vaccine doing a better job against the Delta variant than multiple layers of protection have failed to do so far.
 
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You still have the personal choice to isolate. You can wear yours mask where ever you feel fit to do so too.
So if you’re nervous or even just cautious then keep on doing what you’re doing and stay safe.
If you feel enough is enough then take as many risks as you want to and if you catch Covid-19 then you knew the risks.

Fortunately everyone is suitably educated now on this virus so if you’re vulnerable or just scared then do what you need to do.
 
Chunkylad said:
Does suggest that he mask is a crutch that offers little benefit? There’s no way Vallance would sit inside without a mask if the risk was real.

That said we do know that Covid does not affect the wealthy and is purely the scourge of the poor
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I've never worn one outside, the data suggests the chance of infection outdoors is negligible, but wouldn't go anywhere public inside without one and will continue to wear one indoors.
 
SeasideKurt said:
Until we see a dramatic rise with deaths then I wouldn't be concerned. Currently the deaths are stable at around 30-35 a day. I'd personally stop posting the amount of cases.
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You seem very blasé about 30+ people dying daily. I hope it’s nobody you know or care about.

BigHandsOliverKahn said:
The problem though is that the vaccine only does a good job at reduction but isn't 100% effective and to some people not effective at all. The estimate is between 1,000 and 2,000 hospitalisations per day by mid-August and with long covid patients taking up time and resources for months or years, I'm not sure how letting people ignore all previous precautions will help waiting lists for other ailments. Going into autumn, when education opens back up, with already high numbers from the summer amounts to a gamble on herd immunity and the vaccine doing a better job against the Delta variant than multiple layers of protection have failed to do so far.
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Long Covid isn’t taking up too much resource. I’ve been left with a fucked heart and lungs and the NHS have said there’s fuck all they can do to help me.
 
cruzzer said:
You seem very blasé about 30+ people dying daily. I hope it’s nobody you know or care about.


Long Covid isn’t taking up too much resource. I’ve been left with a fucked heart and lungs and the NHS have said there’s fuck all they can do to help me.
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People die from flu? Car crashes? Cancer? Murder? Multitude of reasons. It's life it happens. If I got sad about every individual life it would consume you? Not blaise at all. Shit reply.
 
cruzzer said:
If you think my reply was shit then you really are a sad pathetic individual.
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Awful reply, I wasn't blaise. If we sit inside for 30 individuals dying per day, then we're fucked aren't we? If we go up towards 100 rapidly, 200 etc then we need to be concerned.

Actually, it was a really stupid reply. Thick.
 
SeasideKurt said:
People die from flu? Car crashes? Cancer? Murder? Multitude of reasons. It's life it happens. If I got sad about every individual life it would consume you? Not blaise at all. Shit reply.
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Well taking one of your examples as an analogy, for car crashes we have seat belts, we have air bags, we have warning signs, we have speed limits, we have drink drive limits etc etc. We don't see the government saying, let's rely on just seat belts and sod the rest of the precautions, take down the speed limits and just leave it to individual drivers to decide how fast they go.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Well taking one of your examples as an analogy, for car crashes we have seat belts, we have air bags, we have warning signs, we have speed limits, we have drink drive limits etc etc. We don't see the government saying, let's rely on just seat belts and sod the rest of the precautions, take down the speed limits and just leave it to individual drivers to decide how fast they go.
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That is a terrible terrible comparison for a thousand reasons BHOK.
 
cruzzer said:
After the peak of this so-called third wave, and when most have had their 2nd jab.
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Once the schools are back, as we head into the autumn/winter respiritory virus season (likely to be a bad one too), or are you suggesting holding off until April/May next year?

66.2% of people have already had the 2nd jab including all over 40s (who want it) and other vulnerable groups, so the "most" condition is already met


cruzzer said:
It’s now to allow MP’s to go on holiday and pass the buck to the population.
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What utter rot.
 
I think you are in a minority. Most people want to get back to some form of normality. I have been to a number of outside events recently. Very few waring masks. Now is the time to go to stage 4, if not now, when? Otherwise what is the point of the vacation programme? Use common sense as to where and when to wear a mask. If you don't feel safe act appropriately.
 
Sussex said:
I think you are in a minority. Most people want to get back to some form of normality. I have been to a number of outside events recently. Very few waring masks. Now is the time to go to stage 4, if not now, when? Otherwise what is the point of the vacation programme? Use common sense as to where and when to wear a mask. If you don't feel safe act appropriately.
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I quite like the idea of a vacation programme. Is that where we go around the world catching other variants and bringing them home?
 
1617218954
 
I mentioned this the other day but it’s scary how anxious some people have become and how happy they are but also craving to be told what to do by the Government. Just live your life how you desire, everyday life has risks wherever you go.

Some people are obsessed with staying alive without actually living. Death is part of life and the biggest fear shouldn't be dying but dying having never lived.

It should be a celebration for next week, we’ve lived through nearly 18 months of restrictions on daily life. We have vaccines now. We have knowledge and lots of immunity.

What more do these people actually want?
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
The problem though is that the vaccine only does a good job at reduction but isn't 100% effective and to some people not effective at all. The estimate is between 1,000 and 2,000 hospitalisations per day by mid-August and with long covid patients taking up time and resources for months or years, I'm not sure how letting people ignore all previous precautions will help waiting lists for other ailments. Going into autumn, when education opens back up, with already high numbers from the summer amounts to a gamble on herd immunity and the vaccine doing a better job against the Delta variant that multiple layers of protection have failed to do so far.
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If you're that worried, then lock yourself away at home and continue wetting the bed.
 
cruzzer said:
Really, your opinion only. Where are you holidaying?
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If you want to argue that we should delay phase 4 until next year (or any other time) then that's a defensible position, suggesting that decisions involving the CMO's of all 4 nations are being made based on MP's holiday arrangements is not.

When do you think we should go to phase 4 BTW, and please a specific month rather than a general "some point in the future".
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Israel, who are 4 weeks ahead of the UK in having tried to fully open up, are now putting measures back in place. I'll bet we do the same when the politicians come back from their holidays in September.
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Based on an average of 1 death per day at the moment, some might consider that an over-reaction, I'll leave others to judge.

The modelling seems to suggest this wave will peak in August BTW, so re-imposing restrictions in September is likely to be pointless.
 
Lost Seasider said:
If you want to argue that we should delay phase 4 until next year (or any other time) then that's a defensible position, suggesting that decisions involving the CMO's of all 4 nations are being made based on MP's holiday arrangements is not.

When do you think we should go to phase 4 BTW, and please a specific month rather than a general "some point in the future".
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The BMA have now come out against the governments approach -their view should carry some authority.
It is one thing to ease restrictions, which IMO should be done, but it is another completely to rely on the 'common sense' of the public to act responsibly. We saw yesterday how that can go. It is a way that the government can abdicate itself of responsibility when things inevitably go wrong.
The public need clear guidance, 'wear masks inside when in contact with other people' would be a good rule backed by sanction. I noticed that the government had rowed back a little from their freedom day rhetoric yesterday. Some vulnerable people have no choice as to whether they use public transport, they need to be protected.
 
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ElBurroSinNombre said:
The BMA have now come out against the governments approach -their view should carry some authority.
It is one thing to ease restrictions, which IMO should be done, but it is another completely to rely on the 'common sense' of the public to act responsibly. We saw yesterday how that can go. It is a way that the government can abdicate itself of responsibility when things inevitably go wrong.
The public need clear guidance, 'wear masks inside when in contact with other people' would be a good rule backed by sanction. I noticed that the government had rowed back a little from their freedom day rhetoric yesterday. Some vulnerable people have no choice as to whether they use public transport, they need to be protected.
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Did anyone care about about vulnerable people pre-March 2020? They would have still been at risk from other viruses etc.

People shouldn’t need a man on the telly to tell them to wear a mask (the same men who told them not to last year). Grown adults, should be able to decide for themselves what to do and evaluate the risks accordingly. We are adults ffs.

I’m sorry but this needs to be said again. Even if you believe in the effectiveness of masks, asking people to wear one whilst walking around in a pub/restaurant but can take it off whilst sitting down to eat, chat and have a laugh is complete unscientific nonsense. It’s a total piss take. Honestly, it really is.
 
50 deaths today, over 210 in the past 7 days. Over 560 hospital admissions today and over 3,200 in the last 7 days.

That’s at case rates of 35,000. Triple it to what Javid thinks will happen and we’ll hit over 150 deaths a day, and over 9,000 hospital admissions a day.

The NHS will be seriously overwhelmed and we’ll be back at square one. All could be avoided by waiting until IMO mid August, the time when the MP’s are all on holiday and the cat at No. 10 is running the country.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
The BMA have now come out against the governments approach -their view should carry some authority.
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Less than you might think.


ElBurroSinNombre said:
It is one thing to ease restrictions, which IMO should be done, but it is another completely to rely on the 'common sense' of the public to act responsibly. We saw yesterday how that can go. It is a way that the government can abdicate itself of responsibility when things inevitably go wrong.
The public need clear guidance, 'wear masks inside when in contact with other people' would be a good rule backed by sanction. I noticed that the government had rowed back a little from their freedom day rhetoric yesterday. Some vulnerable people have no choice as to whether they use public transport, they need to be protected.
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Unfortunately that's unworkable and unenforcable if you want to get rid of the 2m rule, so it's really a case of do we delay stage 4 until next year or not?
 
Lost Seasider said:
Less than you might think.




Unfortunately that's unworkable and unenforcable if you want to get rid of the 2m rule, so it's really a case of do we delay stage 4 until next year or not?
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It is not a simple choice between drop all restrictions or stay as we are until next year and to characterise the situation as a binary choice between the two is plain nuts. A gradual lifting of restrictions is completely possible.

There are lots of things the government could do, an obvious one is to make it mandatory to wear a mask on public transport. This rule would be completely enforceable and in fact many airlines actually already do this despite being outside of government jurisdiction.
Another enforceable rule would be to mandate the wearing of masks in shops, again very easy to understand and completely enforceable.
It seems that the Covid passport is back on the agenda, I wouldn't be surprised if this became mandated at some future point for certain types of venue. Again completely enforceable and easy to understand for the general public.

The government have already backtracked partially since last week over home working and mask wearing, I am expecting plenty more uturns to come.
 
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