Inflation is linked to several factors.
The single biggest element is probably energy costs, which were rising well before Russia invaded Ukraine, due to a lack of stored energy and low output from renewable sources. Now there’s no chance of them dropping short-term, because of the invasion.
The invasion has also brought massive increases in the cost of foodstuffs (primarily wheat), whilst there’s been a huge uplift in the cost of packaging.
The price of gasoline on the open market has been at record highs in recent weeks/months.
Why? The war is mainly responsible again: Gasoline blenders usually start to build inventories of finished blends and blend stocks (products that go into gasoline to ensure finished blends have the right octane levels etc) in March. This didn’t happen because crude prices jumped with the invasion and people held off building inventories because forward/futures pricing were at massive discounts to prompt prices and nobody wanted to be sat on stocks that were losing value on paper. Fast forward to May and fuels demand in pretty much everywhere but China (locked-down again...) is pretty much back at pre-covid levels. Meanwhile supply of gasoline blend stocks (and other refined products) from Russia are not available. End result, record high gasoline crack spreads over crude and record prices globally.
Note - gasoline is already much lower than it was. Let’s see how quickly retail prices move back down...
Next point - and possibly the biggest problem facing us longer term - the global supply chain is still broken. Markets for commodities remain highly localised and logistics solutions are generally not easy to find. There’s a lack of warehouse space, there’s an acute lack of drivers (many in Central Europe were Ukrainian) and deep-sea movements of all kinds are still way more expensive than they were 12-36 months ago.
Add all this to the weak pound versus other currencies, combined with our lack of heavy industry to be more self-sufficient across commodities and goods and it makes for a perfect storm of inflation and limited supply, the latter then adds to inflation as tight supply (usually) means higher prices.
It’s a right mess.