Have we (hopefully) reached the peak?

C

cruzzer

Well-known member
Cases numbers gradually dropping over the past few days, sadly deaths rising which I guess is expected.

Fingers crossed šŸ¤ž
 
There is always a lag between number of infections and sadly deaths, but not sure we have peaked yet as the effect of opening up, large events etc probably wonā€™t be known until August.
 
Not going down around here from what I can see - rates are 5x higher than Jan

Think we've a few weeks to go before we see how ' opening up ' affects things
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Not going down around here from what I can see - rates are 5x higher than Jan

Think we've a few weeks to go before we see how ' opening up ' affects things
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The rates are higher than January, but there has been a very slight decrease in the last few days. Even in my FY4.
 
National Figures actually looking good, a week on week decrease today for the first time and below 40,000 from a peak of 54,000 a few days ago.
Zoe covid symptoms app giving the same sort of slowing in Covid symptoms
Can we dare to hope?
 
Weā€™d like to think they have looking at the figures, but they donā€™t reflect whatā€™s happened since 19th July. Without doubt infections will rise rapidly in a couple of weeks, especially amongst the young, so watch this space.
 
I live in chorley and travel around the North West doing my work. The number of cases was very high just before the last lockdown, this feels even higher. Rife at the minute.
 
As above - weā€™ve only just reopened.

I think the SAGE minutes from early July predicted the peak would be at the end of August at the earliest.
 
Schools finishing and the testing of fit and healthy students stopping as they are off for 6 weeks will help.

That and the fact loads of people caught it in the pub watching the Euros and weā€™ll hopefully be right by September.
 
Going to be very interesting to track.

ā€˜Freedom Dayā€™ polarised opinions.
You either felt it was a catastrophic mistake and open season for variants and mass hospitalisation. Or you felt it was time to do it now and the impact would be little on hospitals or deaths. Either way, the stats will give a clear answer.
 
I keep getting news from friends and work colleagues that they are catching covid even though double jabbed and have all caught it off their kids in the 18 to 25 age group it seems to be rife. Hopefully it will peak soon and then start going down. However they are talking about going back to stage 3 by the end of August, Still unsure how things like football, gigs etc/. are going to work, it's a pain in the arse!
 
News report keeps showing people in hospital with the new variant. On interview they were either too busy to get vaccinated (wtf??) or social media put them off getting it (fuckwit syndrome)
 
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Chunkylad said:
Going to be very interesting to track.

ā€˜Freedom Dayā€™ polarised opinions.
You either felt it was a catastrophic mistake and open season for variants and mass hospitalisation. Or you felt it was time to do it now and the impact would be little on hospitals or deaths. Either way, the stats will give a clear answer.
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Personally I doubt "freedom day" made much of a difference, the 20 - 25's were ignoring it all anyway so I doubt they'll be catching it any faster.

I guess we'll just have to wait for them to burn it out.
 
So all along all we had to do was put Wanksock back in his box, hold firm against the yellow-mattress brigade and ride it out?
 
hertfordseasider said:
I keep getting news from friends and work colleagues that they are catching covid even though double jabbed and have all caught it off their kids in the 18 to 25 age group it seems to be rife. Hopefully it will peak soon and then start going down. However they are talking about going back to stage 3 by the end of August, Still unsure how things like football, gigs etc/. are going to work, it's a pain in the arse!
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Yep, just the same for me.
 
Adams Kebab said:
Its going to be quite something if cases keep dropping after restrictions have been lifted... let us pray šŸ™šŸ¼
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I guess some credit has to go to BHOK for all of those warnings and to everyone who hassled disabled shoppers in the new year.
 
rockontommy said:
I guess some credit has to go to BHOK for all of those warnings and to everyone who hassled disabled shoppers in the new year.
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I think credit has to go to everybody who has been vaccinated and followed the public health guidelines.
If we are going to resort to insults, I'd say that 'bedwetter' is a good description for someone who is too scared to be vaccinated and then hides behind the libertarian argument to justify it. I would add that it is not a sign of machismo to ignore public health warnings, instead it is a sign of narcissism and gullibility.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
I think credit has to go to everybody who has been vaccinated and followed the public health guidelines.
If we are going to resort to insults, I'd say that 'bedwetter' is a good description for someone who is too scared to be vaccinated and then hides behind the libertarian argument to justify it. I would add that it is not a sign of machismo to ignore public health warnings, instead it is a sign of narcissism and gullibility.
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I'm not too macho (not macho at all actually) to say I'm scared of getting jabbed. As for name calling, I can assure you I've been called MUCH worse in the last year but it is what it is.
 
rockontommy said:
I'm not too macho (not macho at all actually) to say I'm scared of getting jabbed. As for name calling, I can assure you I've been called MUCH worse in the last year but it is what it is.
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The vast majority of Covid patients in hospital are 'libertarians', libertarians who have put themselves in danger and now are unnecessarily wasting a lot of UK tax payer money. These people, people like you, are making further lockdowns much more likely and that is why it is hard for many to stomach your missives on personal freedom. It is not an option to pretend this is not happening as you would like. The vaccine is the lesser of two evils.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
The vast majority of Covid patients in hospital are 'libertarians', libertarians who have put themselves in danger and now are unnecessarily wasting a lot of UK tax payer money. These people, people like you, are making further lockdowns much more likely and that is why it is hard for many to stomach your missives on personal freedom. It is not an option to pretend this is not happening as you would like. The vaccine is the lesser of two evils.
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Wasting tax payers money? I hope that is a sick joke? As for these rest, you are right... I am putting myself in danger. Accepting a small amount of personal risk is a very small price to pay for getting things back to normal for everyone.
 
rockontommy said:
Wasting tax payers money? I hope that is a sick joke? As for these rest, you are right... I am putting myself in danger. Accepting a small amount of personal risk is a very small price to pay for getting things back to normal for everyone.
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People who do not get jabbed are now the largest group of Covid patients in hospital (~60%). It costs a lot of tax payers money to treat them, and this is essentially an avoidable cost, so yes it is public money wasted, quite apart from the bed blocking that it causes. In addition, other people will now not be able to have urgent treatment because of their narcissism and this too will cost money. The unjabbed are also making further lockdowns more likely because they are allowing the virus to spread freely. Each lockdown costs the UK tax payer many billions of pounds.
So yes, people who behave like you are in a small way, costing all UK tax payers money. And then to add insult to injury you come onto AVFTT and call people who have acted in a public spirited way 'bedwetters'. And at the same time you admit to being scared to have a vaccine .....
 
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ElBurroSinNombre said:
People who do not get jabbed are now the largest group of Covid patients in hospital (~60%). It costs a lot of tax payers money to treat them, and this is essentially an avoidable cost, so yes it is public money wasted, quite apart from the bed blocking that it causes. In addition, other people will now not be able to have urgent treatment because of their narcissism. The unjabbed are also making further lockdowns more likely because they are allowing the virus to spread freely. Each lockdown costs the UK tax payer many billions of pounds.
So yes, people who behave like you are in a small way, costing all UK tax payers money. And then to add insult to injury you come onto AVFTT and call people who have acted in a public spirited way 'bedwetters'. And at the same time you admit to being scared to have a vaccine .....
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The best Friday joke Iā€™ve seen on here šŸ¤£šŸ‘šŸ»

Well played.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
People who do not get jabbed are now the largest group of Covid patients in hospital (~60%). It costs a lot of tax payers money to treat them, and this is essentially an avoidable cost, so yes it is public money wasted, quite apart from the bed blocking that it causes. In addition, other people will now not be able to have urgent treatment because of their narcissism. The unjabbed are also making further lockdowns more likely because they are allowing the virus to spread freely. Each lockdown costs the UK tax payer many billions of pounds.
So yes, people who behave like you are in a small way, costing all UK tax payers money. And then to add insult to injury you come onto AVFTT and call people who have acted in a public spirited way 'bedwetters'. And at the same time you admit to being scared to have a vaccine .....
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Please don't lecture me about the costs of lockdown (health, societal and Ā£) - what the fuck do you think I've been railing against for the last 18months? I have stuck my head way above the parapet on many an occasion to make this very point, I am sure you will agree?

I'm not really sure what public spiritedness has to do with anything. People who burn down paediatricians houses are public spirited. People who censor and bury the truth are public spirited. It is meaningless without being fully informed and carefully considered.

We are never going to see eye to eye on this because we have different philosophical viewpoints on life. You talk about lockdowns as if they are a formality, like night follows day. 'Cases' go up, restrictions come in. No, bollocks to that. I don't wish you any harm and I hope you feel the same although it's not entirely clear from your posts. Let's agree to disagree šŸ‘šŸæ
 
rockontommy said:
Please don't lecture me about the costs of lockdown (health, societal and Ā£) - what the fuck do you think I've been railing against for the last 18months? I have stuck my head way above the parapet on many an occasion to make this very point, I am sure you will agree?

I'm not really sure what public spiritedness has to do with anything. People who burn down paediatricians houses are public spirited. People who censor and bury the truth are public spirited. It is meaningless without being fully informed and carefully considered.

We are never going to see eye to eye on this because we have different philosophical viewpoints on life. You talk about lockdowns as if they are a formality, like night follows day. 'Cases' go up, restrictions come in. No, bollocks to that. I don't wish you any harm and I hope you feel the same although it's not entirely clear from your posts. Let's agree to disagree šŸ‘šŸæ
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I don't wish you any harm but when you openly goad people on here as bedwetters (the people who have done and are doing the right thing), then I feel that some perspective is needed. I notice that you or Adams have not given any counter argument to my points, so I can only assume that there is no good counter argument. We can see very clearly how effective vaccination is and by not having one you are helping to prolong this crisis. There is no good counter argument to that. We all hate having our freedoms taken away but the vast majority are prepared to take a minute risk and be vaccinated because on average it works as we can see very clearly from the figures.

Your preferred option has always been to pretend that we don't have a problem, this is not and never has been an option for grown-up government. In a situation like this, the public spirited thing to do is to get vaccinated, that is very clear. The people who are now stopping our freedoms from being fully restored and threaten them in the future are people who have not been vaccinated through choice. They are the ones who are, in the main, now lying in hospital and putting the NHS under strain, stopping other people from being treated and making future lockdowns more likely. 'Bollocks to that' is not really a coherent response to a public health emergency.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
'Bollocks to that' is not really a coherent response to a public health emergency.
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Well it worked for Sweden who don't have the disgusting waiting lists we have which only now concern you so much. Still, I guess this represents progress that lockdowns are now accepted as being zero sum rather than the *very* naĆÆve and widely-held view of the last 18 months - the 'if it saves one life' brigade šŸ™„

I suspect my first post on this thread may have hit the spot which is why you've taken to dragging this out into a 'debate'. The flak is always heaviest when you are over the target and all that.

This will be my last post on this thread. Have a good weekend EBSN.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
The people who are now stopping our freedoms from being fully restored and threaten them in the future are people who have not been vaccinated through choice. They are the ones who are, in the main, now lying in hospital and putting the NHS under strain, stopping other people from being treated and making future lockdowns more likely. 'Bollocks to that' is not really a coherent response to a public health emergency.
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Iā€™m sorry but this is complete and utter bollocks.

This idea that the unvaccinated or the non-mask wearers are stopping our freedoms is complete and utter nonsense. The message throughout the vaccine roll-out was when the vulnerable are vaccinated we ā€œcan cry freedomā€. Then that changed again. Weā€™ve had the ā€œdata not datesā€ line fed to us on restrictions but bizarrely the data was worse when the restrictions got lifted than the month before they were extended. I keep reminding people that there is a 99% recovery rate from this virus. This is all 100% true.

You talk about the unvaccinated wasting tax payers money, I mean that is stand-up comedy stuff, this Country has wasted millions and billions throughout this.

Youā€™ve fallen hook, line and sinker for it, if you think its now the fault of the young and unvaccinated etc.

Can you tell us your body weight as if youā€™re overweight I think you are selfish and putting a strain on the NHS. During this ā€˜health crisisā€™, fast food outlets remained open and gyms and even outdoor activity in most cases was shutdown.

Itā€™s become tribal this now, but just to reiterate my view which gets lost in the world of virtue signalling, all I do is point out that this behaviour makes no logical sense whatsoever & it really doesn't.
 
Adams Kebab said:
Iā€™m sorry but this is complete and utter bollocks.

This idea that the unvaccinated or the non-mask wearers are stopping our freedoms is complete and utter nonsense. The message throughout the vaccine roll-out was when the vulnerable are vaccinated we ā€œcan cry freedomā€. Then that changed again. Weā€™ve had the ā€œdata not datesā€ line fed to us on restrictions but bizarrely the data was worse when the restrictions got lifted than the month before they were extended. I keep reminding people that there is a 99% recovery rate from this virus. This is all 100% true.

You talk about the unvaccinated wasting tax payers money, I mean that is stand-up comedy stuff, this Country has wasted millions and billions throughout this.

Youā€™ve fallen hook, line and sinker for it, if you think its now the fault of the young and unvaccinated etc.

Can you tell us your body weight as if youā€™re overweight I think you are selfish and putting a strain on the NHS. During this ā€˜health crisisā€™, fast food outlets remained open and gyms and even outdoor activity in most cases was shutdown.

Itā€™s become tribal this now, but just to reiterate my view which gets lost in the world of virtue signalling, all I do is point out that this behaviour makes no logical sense whatsoever & it really doesn't.
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The strategy has always been to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed. That is why the lockdowns were introduced and that has been the point of all of the restrictions that we have endured. 1% may die, but many others end up in hospital for prolonged periods of time.

Vaccinated people are far less likely to put a strain on the NHS for three reasons;
  1. They do not transmit the virus as freely as the unvaccinated
  2. They are far less likely to end up in hospital if they do become infected
  3. Thy are less likely to become infected in the first place
These are all established facts.

Most Covid patients currently in hospital are unvaccinated - that is another fact.

I want this to end as soon as possible, like everyone else. The only feasible way out of the crisis without a lot of unnecessary deaths is through vaccination.

I agree that a lot of government policy has been confused and contradictory but that does not mean that you should / can freely ignore every piece of public health advice. And the most important piece of advice is to get vaccinated asap.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
The strategy has always been to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed. That is why the lockdowns were introduced and that has been the point of all of the restrictions that we have endured. 1% may die, but many others end up in hospital for prolonged periods of time.

Vaccinated people are far less likely to put a strain on the NHS for three reasons;
  1. They do not transmit the virus as freely as the unvaccinated
  2. They are far less likely to end up in hospital if they do become infected
  3. Thy are less likely to become infected in the first place
These are all established facts.

Most Covid patients currently in hospital are unvaccinated - that is another fact.

I want this to end as soon as possible, like everyone else. The only feasible way out of the crisis without a lot of unnecessary deaths is through vaccination.

I agree that a lot of government policy has been confused and contradictory but that does not mean that you should / can freely ignore every piece of public health advice. And the most important piece of advice is to get vaccinated asap.
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I actually am pro-vaccine, for those that need it or those that want it, for the non-vulnerable/under 50ā€™s they should be able to choose. There is no doubts the vaccines work & have broken the chain of hospitalisations and deaths. However, by the time winter comes and the NHS gets overwhelmed again (as it does every winter), people will start dying again and I just hope we donā€™t fall into the Covid blame game again.

Just to add, others are not responsible for your health, You are responsible for your health. This manipulation has gotten some people too comfortable with blaming others for your lack of sense, discernment and care for your own body.

If people worried about their own health as much as they are about the unvaccinated then the Country would be a healthier place.

Also, Iā€™m glad youā€™re sure on all your stats, Patrick Vallance wasnā€™t the other day was he? Simple mistake to make I suppose šŸ™„
 
Adams Kebab said:
I actually am pro-vaccine, for those that need it or those that want it, for the non-vulnerable/under 50ā€™s they should be able to choose. There is no doubts the vaccines work & have broken the chain of hospitalisations and deaths. However, by the time winter comes and the NHS gets overwhelmed again (as it does every winter), people will start dying again and I just hope we donā€™t fall into the Covid blame game again.

Just to add, others are not responsible for your health, You are responsible for your health. This manipulation has gotten some people too comfortable with blaming others for your lack of sense, discernment and care for your own body.

If people worried about their own health as much as they are about the unvaccinated then the Country would be a healthier place.

Also, Iā€™m glad youā€™re sure on all your stats, Patrick Vallance wasnā€™t the other day was he? Simple mistake to make I suppose šŸ™„
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Vallance later corrected his mistake in the press conference, which was a mistake, as you probably know
I broadly agree with the rest of your message and hope that somehow people can be encouraged to take more personal responsibility for their health.
 
Adams Kebab said:
I keep reminding people that there is a 99% recovery rate from this virus.
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2 very, very basic points:
  • 1% of 60,000,000 is 600,000 deaths, that's more people than died during world war 2;
  • it's a 1% IFR with first world medical treatment, approx 10% of detected cases (perhaps 5% of all cases) require hospital treatment, without that it's safe to assume that the IFR would be significantly higher, perhaps 2.5%, that would work out at 1,500,000 deaths or more than the total number who died during world war 1 and world war 2 combined.
And I hope I don't need to remind you that the world wars lasted 4 and 6 years.
 
Lost Seasider said:
2 very, very basic points:
  • 1% of 60,000,000 is 600,000 deaths, that's more people than died during world war 2;
  • it's a 1% IFR with first world medical treatment, approx 10% of detected cases (perhaps 5% of all cases) require hospital treatment, without that it's safe to assume that the IFR would be significantly higher, perhaps 2.5%, that would work out at 1,500,000 deaths or more than the total number who died during world war 1 and world war 2 combined.
And I hope I don't need to remind you that the world wars lasted 4 and 6 years.
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Thanks for the history lesson, albeit very very basic.

Iā€™ve got more accustomed to learning through your visual graphs though.
 
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