Michael Gove

Loco said:
Yes, that's not quite what I meant. Also, I was speed reading and lost the point that this thread is referring to children. Anyhow, measles is creeping back due to lower vaccination uptakes. It is far more transmissible than Covid 19 with R0 of 12-18. This is a risk some parents seem prepared to take, which sums up the madness of all this. I had measles as a kid. It's not very pleasant.
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I totally agree.

I posted an article yesterday listing the relative R0 numbers, and C19 is surprisingly low wrt to Measels, Mumps, Rubella and Whooping cough.

Which is where I think Gove (back to the OP) slipped up(again!), and where the Government is not doing itself any favours!
 
That is why parents refusing measles vaccination is a worry as with such a high R0 number it requires 95% take up to get herd immunity.
 
bollieboy said:
That is why parents refusing measles vaccination is a worry as with such a high R0 number it requires 95% take up to get herd immunity.
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The inverse of that could be that C19 might never achieve Herd Immunity without Vaccination, as its R0 is much lower than measles, so it will hang around longer? 🤔
 
Don_K_Lasher said:
The inverse of that could be that C19 might never achieve Herd Immunity without Vaccination, as its R0 is much lower than measles, so it will hang around longer? 🤔
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No - but you would have to allow it to go rampant and totally swamp the NHS.
If you control it with a R0 around 1 and 20,000 daily new cases then yes, by the time enough people have had it the immunity of those first affected will most probably be lost.
 
It's a good job nobody listens to BFCx3.

Very dangerous when someone passes off pie in the sky opinion as fact.
 
Don_K_Lasher said:
The government should have provided the detailed information from the start as they got it, particularly regarding who's most at risk, which isn't the children.

Until we get a vaccine, there will be deaths.
He would have been better comparing the expected C19 death rates, with the pre vaccine measles death rates which were pretty horrendous, but society carried on regardless.
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90% of deaths are in the over 75 category.
 
Don_K_Lasher said:
I totally agree.

I posted an article yesterday listing the relative R0 numbers, and C19 is surprisingly low wrt to Measels, Mumps, Rubella and Whooping cough.

Which is where I think Gove (back to the OP) slipped up(again!), and where the Government is not doing itself any favours!
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Of course R0 (R-nought) is a measure taken when infection is spread through a group that have never had the virus before. Whilst measles is highly infectious, more so than Coronavirus the likely spread is lower because the majority of people it meets have had a vaccine or been subject to the disease previously. The Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 is encountering populations that have never had a vaccine or had the virus previously (hence Novel) and this is why it’s spreading and we see lots of new cases being identified but has stayed at a fairly even level ( balance between more testing and infection rate declining ).

If the data is available out there then more use of Regional variances would be much more useful as it seems the R0 is heading south of .5 in London but still .73 in the North West and unfortunately National Policy appears to be being guided by the London figure - with a knock on effect in the North that we aren’t quite there yet in the control aspect.
 
Bottle said:
Of course R0 (R-nought) is a measure taken when infection is spread through a group that have never had the virus before. Whilst measles is highly infectious, more so than Coronavirus the likely spread is lower because the majority of people it meets have had a vaccine or been subject to the disease previously. The Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 is encountering populations that have never had a vaccine or had the virus previously (hence Novel) and this is why it’s spreading and we see lots of new cases being identified but has stayed at a fairly even level ( balance between more testing and infection rate declining ).

If the data is available out there then more use of Regional variances would be much more useful as it seems the R0 is heading south of .5 in London but still .73 in the North West and unfortunately National Policy appears to be being guided by the London figure - with a knock on effect in the North that we aren’t quite there yet in the control aspect.
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To be fair, Bottle, I think the powers that be are well aware of the regional variations and have been for some time ; managing that whilst putting some juice back into the economy is difficult, as they can't be sure what "relaxation" of lockdown will do to behaviour.

For example, despite easing of restrictions this week, it looks as though commuter traffic into London hasn't gone up much at all, certainly by train, anyway. if that trend persists, then the relaxation may work without too many pernicious effects. But that is a big "if".
 
bollieboy said:
No - but you would have to allow it to go rampant and totally swamp the NHS.
If you control it with a R0 around 1 and 20,000 daily new cases then yes, by the time enough people have had it the immunity of those first affected will most probably be lost.
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Yes you would, that's another reason for not going for Herd Immunity - which I doubt would question could ever happen anyway
 
basilrobbie said:
To be fair, Bottle, I think the powers that be are well aware of the regional variations and have been for some time ; managing that whilst putting some juice back into the economy is difficult, as they can't be sure what "relaxation" of lockdown will do to behaviour.

For example, despite easing of restrictions this week, it looks as though commuter traffic into London hasn't gone up much at all, certainly by train, anyway. if that trend persists, then the relaxation may work without too many pernicious effects. But that is a big "if".
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Do you not think that local Government has a larger role to play though? Surely Locally is the best placed to monitor infection rate and could have powers to restrict activity thus leaving the wider community to carry on with relaxed restrictions.

But agree with you on “commuter” activity - such as it is on the Fylde Coast. Certainly lot busier on the roads from what I saw locally on morning walkies here in Anchorsholme, but then we don’t pull in 100,000s to work daily here - fortunately we didn’t see much extra round town over the weekend so people probably sticking to the good old Stay Home message rather than Stay Alert.

I actually went and queued at Wilko in Cleveleys on Saturday which is the only time I’ve been anywhere different to Asda/Morrisons (1 weekly shop to one or the other only) - so I can’t argue too much about the relaxation as I took advantage of it myself.

So maybe Common Sense does work to some degree - until you see and hear the family on telly who drove for 1.5 hours to get to a beach and then moaned because everyone else did the same thing and THEY were’nt respecting the Social Distancing rules!
 
Death stats from ONS latest report

Of the 33,841 deaths that occurred in March and April 2020 involving COVID-19 in England and Wales, 30,577 (90.4%) had at least one pre-existing condition, while 3,264 (9.6%) had none. The most common underlying condition was dementia/Alzheimer's disease.
 
Don_K_Lasher said:
It's weird how they are not giving out the full facts in a comprehensible format.

I read 75 % of all patients are overweight, obese or grossly obese (BBC so it must be true 😁)
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I've added the only tangible one which linked underlying causes in general to 90% of deaths and dementia being the main one of those.
 
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