Plan next week on how to restart the economy and ease the lock down. Some light at the end of the tunnel. I might have a pint to celebrate
yet over 6,000 new cases in the last 24 hours,this in lockdown conditions,my view always has been two huge factors 1,a vaccine,2,a treatmentAny excuse eh
Testing will show who has it.Might be being stupid here but if lockdown is lifted by any degree then surely anyone who currently has the virus but doesn’t know will just pass it on whenever they leave the house? Without a vaccine there is no way the virus will stop?
If that is the case then any lockdown can only be lifted once every person has been tested? Again, I might be missing something.Testing will show who has it.
I see, thanks for that. Not a decision I would want to be making either.Paul, the thinking is that there are actually a lot less people with the virus now. So therefore a lot less risk of catching it. The virus has been stopped in it's tracks to a degree because it needs people to transport it.
I agree with your sentiments but we were always going to reach a point where there is some risk involved. Unless we stay in lockdown until a vaccine has been found and everybody has been vaccinated. But by then there won't be much left to come out of lockdown for. It's a very difficult balancing act and I'm glad I'm not making the decisions.
That appears to be crux of it to me - when is the negative of a smaller number of Corona related deaths outweighed by the positive of businesses keeping going. Very tough decision.If lockdown continues as it is for another month there will be some very big casualties business wise out there
I read somewhere the other day it could lead to 150 thousand deaths if lockdown continued for a long period!If lockdown continues as it is for another month there will be some very big casualties business wise out there
Paul, yes it will start to transport again as people have contact. But a lot less people will have it, so a lot less will catch it. And what TAM says is quite right. If we continue indefinitely with lockdown the economy will be devastated. It's already suffered greatly. At some point we have to come out and take that risk. The more testing done as well will at least confirm who has had the virus. The more data the medical and scientific experts have, the better our control over it.I see, thanks for that. Not a decision I would want to be making either.
You mention that ‘The virus has been stopped in it's tracks to a degree because it needs people to transport it.’ so that basically means as soon as people are about again it will start to transport? As you say a very difficult decision as to what happens next.
Balance of scales, this is a toughie and I'd personally hate to make this decision but I prefer life than death any day of the week. So many downsides to being dead.That appears to be crux of it to me - when is the negative of a smaller number of Corona related deaths outweighed by the positive of businesses keeping going. Very tough decision.
Lockdown isn't really lockdown. There's a lot more traffic on the roads all day long than the first week or so. Showery day so idleness kicks back in.yet over 6,000 new cases in the last 24 hours,this in lockdown conditions,my view always has been two huge factors 1,a vaccine,2,a treatment
exactly Wizz hence over 6,000 new cases in 24hoursLockdown isn't really lockdown. There's a lot more traffic on the roads all day long than the first week or so. Showery day so idleness kicks back in.
Hopefully steps to lift lockdown will be measured and gentle. And remember most of the deaths immediately prior to and during the peak were caused before the 2 metre distancing was properly observed. Baby stepsMight be being stupid here but if lockdown is lifted by any degree then surely anyone who currently has the virus but doesn’t know will just pass it on whenever they leave the house? Without a vaccine there is no way the virus will stop?
I agree & as stated before our lockdown has been softer than a lot of other European Countries. Went out for a bike ride yesterday & I cant believe how busy the shop car parks were, Was following a car that left B&M bargains & drove to Home Bargains you are not telling me all these people are only doing essential shopping!Lockdown isn't really lockdown. There's a lot more traffic on the roads all day long than the first week or so. Showery day so idleness kicks back in.
tbf testing has increased substantially & some of these may have had it for weeks?exactly Wizz hence over 6,000 new cases in 24hours
Health and wealth are inextricably linked unfortunatelyThere’s more cases today because testing has been ramped up. It’s a worry though. It seems to me the government are potentially looking at wealth over health and potentially let the disease run its course, I hope I’m wrong.
Newer cases because of more testing. Fewer deaths. That’s almost positive because it demonstrates how many people have probably been infected prior to the increased testing but haven’t needed hospital treatment or died and subsequently were never tested.There’s more cases today because testing has been ramped up. It’s a worry though. It seems to me the government are looking at wealth over health and potentially let the disease run its course, I hope I’m wrong.
I think using the word peak is a bit misleading - it kind of infers a short sharp period. Whereas the curve has been flattened and therefore the 'peak' of this has and will last weeks, but at a much lower level than it would have been had we not had a lockdown. So while there will be business casualties, there is little point in only putting in restrictions for half of the long peak period. Lifting them too soon would mean more deaths AND more business casualties in the long run. And these decisions need to be made for the long term mitigation of this. It's an incredibly difficult balancing act and it's unlikely they'll get it exactly right.
Agree with that. There’s a lot of uncertainty about the future, I just hope we, as a country, get it right.Health and wealth are inextricably linked unfortunately
Social deprivation brings with it a huge spike in deaths
Very balanced Athers and we have to be.Oh I was in no way suggesting it was plain sailing from here on in. The fine balancing act of what’s more important - the economy or people’s lives. I know where I sit of the fence. I’d carry on lockdown until June if it meant getting the R number down. But I also realise a lot of businesses and people’s livelihoods are going to the wall. It’s a difficult choice to make
I think people have to be reasonable about how hard yet it important it is to balance that. Though some won’t be , obviously.Good post Joe
It's a huge conundrum and a very difficult call
I've said it before for me any release from general lockdown to kickstart the economy has to be coupled with more stringent provisions for the ' at risk ' groups however unpalatable that might be to some
Problem is I don't think our govt has the steel to do that and even if they did they'd face a huge Baby Boomer backlash
They are damned if they do and the economy is goosed if they don't
Oh I was in no way suggesting it was plain sailing from here on in. The fine balancing act of what’s more important - the economy or people’s lives. I know where I sit of the fence. I’d carry on lockdown until June if it meant getting the R number down. But I also realise a lot of businesses and people’s livelihoods are going to the wall. It’s a difficult choice to make
Good pointI think it also pays to wonder, are we,as a reasonably informed nation, now one of the few nations that are including care home and other deaths accurately in our stats. If so it looks far worse in the uk due to our statistical transparency.
I think we are a very transparent nation because our media and public demand that. It probably doesn’t help us in the current stat wars , but it’s what we’ve demanded to know and you can’t trust the stat wars till this is all over and all countries report the fatalities the same way.Good point
I have read that Germany don't put Covid 19 down as the cause of death if there is an underlying condition
I’ve heard she's doing it together with Diane AbbotLet's hope that Priti Patel doesn't do the final count.
There are no testing sites near us.Also car use will have increased due to the increase in test stations... My car will be on the move tomorrow for myself and wife to get tested.
Well she won’t do obviously will sheLet's hope that Priti Patel doesn't do the final count.
What? All three of them?I’ve heard she's doing it together with Diane Abbot
Is Preston the nearest to you Wizz?There are no testing sites near us.