Possible big defeat for Russians

I do believe there's more to this than we'll ever know. I know Ukraine have been bombing parts of Russia for the last 8 years. I was thinking today about Russian controlled TV and them only seeing what the government wanted them to see. Ever thought were the ones being lied to and being fed one sided information?
 
Lala said:
Brought on by a failure to succeed in his original strategy.
Its indisputable that phase one included the taking of Kyiv and other major cities that haven’t been captured.

It’s been a disastrous outcome so far for Putin, an abject failure in terms of meeting it’s objectives.

This has to be a scaling down of expectations mainly due to military incompetence on so many levels.

Also hats off to Biden and nato for growing some balls and letting Putin know that the introduction of chemical warfare would provoke a response. The west has cowered so far and allowed itself to be bullied and intimidated through fear of a nuclear war. At least we let it be know that there are lines we wouldn‘t allow to be crossed without retaliation from other nations outside of Ukraine.
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I appreciate your position Lala but I do not believe that the West has cowered. It has felt impotent - but that is different. However, don't be too wishful about the possibility of the gloves coming off.
Conventionally, Russia is in a poor place but we don't need a snared Tiger fighting its last.
 
GTFsTwinBrother said:
I don't see it that way at all.

It very much struck me as "were getting spanked and we need to regroup so we'll say we're focusing on the east". Not the end of the war by any means. But if he thinks they can redeploy to the east to focus in there...? Well. They'll get spanked again.
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I guess it's a matter of opinion whether it's promising news or not.

The Russians have stuffed up their strategy, tried to do too much and don't have the logistical train to support it all, which has then led to them being bogged down. They've finally realized this and are moving to a strategy of brute force along a single front, which they are more likely to be able to support with their logistics train, and thus it's likely to be more successful for them in the long run.

Or to put it another way, the Russians getting spanked is a good thing, moving to a better strategy and not getting spanked is therefore a bad thing.
 
FY4MIKEH said:
I do believe there's more to this than we'll ever know. I know Ukraine have been bombing parts of Russia for the last 8 years. I was thinking today about Russian controlled TV and them only seeing what the government wanted them to see. Ever thought were the ones being lied to and being fed one sided information?
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I take that approach with every single thing I read and hear... question EVERYTING. I don't trust a single person in our government but I trust the Russian government even less.

As for Ukraine bombing parts of Russia for 8 years... you're chosing to believe their propaganda over ours. Fine. Be THAT idiot.
 
Lost Seasider said:
I guess it's a matter of opinion whether it's promising news or not.

The Russians have stuffed up their strategy, tried to do too much and don't have the logistical train to support it all, which has then led to them being bogged down. They've finally realized this and are moving to a strategy of brute force along a single front, which they are more likely to be able to support with their logistics train, and thus it's likely to be more successful for them in the long run.

Or to put it another way, the Russians getting spanked is a good thing, moving to a better strategy and not getting spanked is therefore a bad thing.
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Don't get me wrong, I know where you are coming from but I just see this as Putin starting to backtrack and nothing else. He can shift his forces/ try to bluff that he is all he wants. But the fact remains he's gonna just have to use the same tactics on a different area of Ukraine.

I'm not celebrating any of that (and I don't think you were insinuating that). But I'm inclined to think he's currently backtracking. Which, imo is good news
 
GTFsTwinBrother said:
I take that approach with every single thing I read and hear... question EVERYTING. I don't trust a single person in our government but I trust the Russian government even less.

As for Ukraine bombing parts of Russia for 8 years... you're chosing to believe their propaganda over ours. Fine. Be THAT idiot.
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I don't believe a word any government says. Believe me or not but I know a few people who are serving in the British army and the bombing is common knowledge between them.
 
Lost Seasider said:
I guess it's a matter of opinion whether it's promising news or not.

The Russians have stuffed up their strategy, tried to do too much and don't have the logistical train to support it all, which has then led to them being bogged down. They've finally realized this and are moving to a strategy of brute force along a single front, which they are more likely to be able to support with their logistics train, and thus it's likely to be more successful for them in the long run.

Or to put it another way, the Russians getting spanked is a good thing, moving to a better strategy and not getting spanked is therefore a bad thing.
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Its possibly Putin's off ramp. Take over Donbas and claim that as the victory that they wanted in the first place with the advance on Kviv only being a feint to draw Ukranian forces away fromthe East. Itsallbollocks but I wouldn't be surprised that is what he will claim so that he doesn't lose face internally.
 
FY4MIKEH said:
I don't believe a word any government says. Believe me or not but I know a few people who are serving in the British army and the bombing is common knowledge between them.
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And what evidence have they seen... first hand like... or.is it just the squaddie shitchat I'm used to?
 
FY4MIKEH said:
I do believe there's more to this than we'll ever know. I know Ukraine have been bombing parts of Russia for the last 8 years. I was thinking today about Russian controlled TV and them only seeing what the government wanted them to see. Ever thought were the ones being lied to and being fed one sided information?
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Those parts of Russia that were previously Ukraine?
 
GTFsTwinBrother said:
Don't get me wrong, I know where you are coming from but I just see this as Putin starting to backtrack and nothing else. He can shift his forces/ try to bluff that he is all he wants. But the fact remains he's gonna just have to use the same tactics on a different area of Ukraine.
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The big problem the Russians have is their logistics train, they can't supply the troops they have over multiple fronts, if they concentrate their efforts on a single front it shortens and simplifies their supply lines, and those same tactics might suddenly look a whole lot better as a result.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I appreciate your position Lala but I do not believe that the West has cowered. It has felt impotent - but that is different. However, don't be too wishful about the possibility of the gloves coming off.
Conventionally, Russia is in a poor place but we don't need a snared Tiger fighting its last.
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No I agree we have felt impotent because to some degree we certainly are.

But, Putin used tough talk re nuclear weapons and talk is possibly all it ever was. We needed to up our vocal battle and play him at his own game, instead of surrendering too easily to his war of words.
 
bollieboy said:
Its possibly Putin's off ramp. Take over Donbas and claim that as the victory that they wanted in the first place with the advance on Kviv only being a feint to draw Ukranian forces away fromthe East. Itsallbollocks but I wouldn't be surprised that is what he will claim so that he doesn't lose face internally.
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It's possible, but I doubt it.

Putin's shown he doesn't give a damn about what the Russian people think, and those that matter won't be taken in by it, so what does saving him a bit of face gain him anyway.

It's possible, if the sanctions really are starting to bite, that he's coming under pressure to end the war, but to me it's too small a victory at too high a price, we're not going to forget what happened any time soon, and I think it would seriously undermine Putin's position.
 
FY4MIKEH said:
I also read today that Ukraine intelligence have said that Putin's closest men are planning on overthrowing him. Take it with a pinch of salt but they must be shaking their heads at what's going on.
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Well his defence minister apparently hasn’t been seen for 12 days.
I think the intelligence Ukraine have received from the US and UK has been invaluable.
 
A Russian tank commander was effectively executed by his own soldiers after massive losses.
I think Putin has limited time left, he will try to blame others and they will know that if they want to survive they will have to get rid of him.
He is now a liability for Russia and no sane politician from any country will trust him, so sanctions will remain in place as, long as, Putin does
 
Lost Seasider said:
It's possible, but I doubt it.

Putin's shown he doesn't give a damn about what the Russian people think, and those that matter won't be taken in by it, so what does saving him a bit of face gain him anyway.

It's possible, if the sanctions really are starting to bite, that he's coming under pressure to end the war, but to me it's too small a victory at too high a price, we're not going to forget what happened any time soon, and I think it would seriously undermine Putin's position.
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I think Putin will have seen he can't win the victory he was initially looking for (ie quickoverthrow of Kviv installation of a puppet government) and the altenative is a protracted conflict that he can't win. He needs an off-ramp that he can sell internally as a victory. The rest of the world know he is a busted flush so that is all he can aim for. Either way the clock is ticking for him as his weakness has been exposed for all to see (except the unconnected Russian public) .
 
Sounds like there is some movement. Hopefully in a positive way. Who knows though. If we have learned one thing lately it is surely that you cannot trust one word that comes out of the Russian regime.
 
bollieboy said:
I think Putin will have seen he can't win the victory he was initially looking for (ie quickoverthrow of Kviv installation of a puppet government) and the altenative is a protracted conflict that he can't win. He needs an off-ramp that he can sell internally as a victory. The rest of the world know he is a busted flush so that is all he can aim for. Either way the clock is ticking for him as his weakness has been exposed for all to see (except the unconnected Russian public) .
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I think the overthrow was a token want by Putin. The goal imo, as posted earlier was always to take the east and secure the corridor from Crimea. He'll get that and retreat with an agreement that Ukraine doesn't join NATO or host NATO facilities. They'll join the EU though as soon as they can.

He'll be seen as a hero in Russia and as a weakist in the wider world.
 
FY4MIKEH said:
I do believe there's more to this than we'll ever know. I know Ukraine have been bombing parts of Russia for the last 8 years. I was thinking today about Russian controlled TV and them only seeing what the government wanted them to see. Ever thought were the ones being lied to and being fed one sided information?
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No, there are too many independent news reporters “on the ground” you can’t hide bombing Russia!

You need to check your sources

If the Russians withdraw to the east that will free up Ukraine forces to move east as well with all the arms they getting from NATO. This could result in a ceasefire as the Russians are getting destroyed on the ground.

The Russians can only use aerial bombardment now. If NATO supply, which they are doing already weapons to target artillery and rocket launchers etc then it will be over for Putin and co hopefully 🙏🏻
 
My biggest fear here is that Putin is clearing his troops away from areas, so he can use much bigger and indiscriminate weapons in that area.

They also have a military doctrine of escalate to de-escalate which calls for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
 
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GTFsTwinBrother said:
Don't get me wrong, I know where you are coming from but I just see this as Putin starting to backtrack and nothing else. He can shift his forces/ try to bluff that he is all he wants. But the fact remains he's gonna just have to use the same tactics on a different area of Ukraine.

I'm not celebrating any of that (and I don't think you were insinuating that). But I'm inclined to think he's currently backtracking. Which, imo is good news
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if he is backtracking, and maybe that’s just a tactic to make the Ukrainians relax in Kyiv, then how does he claim to hav achieved his objectives eventually. Remember he said he wanted to denazify Ukraine, he can’t say he’s done that and leave the government in place.
 
Lala said:
No I agree we have felt impotent because to some degree we certainly are.

But, Putin used tough talk re nuclear weapons and talk is possibly all it ever was. We needed to up our vocal battle and play him at his own game, instead of surrendering too easily to his war of words.
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Imo, nato should have told Putin when he was ramping up his troops and weapons on the border that we are doing the same. Build up troops massively in adjoining nato countries and if you go into Ukraine, we will go in along side them, and crush you. He might have backed off because he knows he’d be overwhelmed, or he might still have invaded, but at least the war would have been contained in Ukraine and all over very quickly.
 
Matesrates said:
Imo, nato should have told Putin when he was ramping up his troops and weapons on the border that we are doing the same. Build up troops massively in adjoining nato countries and if you go into Ukraine, we will go in along side them, and crush you. He might have backed off because he knows he’d be overwhelmed, or he might still have invaded, but at least the war would have been contained in Ukraine and all over very quickly.
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Thank god you are nowhere near any seat of power ☢️
 
Matesrates said:
Imo, nato should have told Putin when he was ramping up his troops and weapons on the border that we are doing the same. Build up troops massively in adjoining nato countries and if you go into Ukraine, we will go in along side them, and crush you. He might have backed off because he knows he’d be overwhelmed, or he might still have invaded, but at least the war would have been contained in Ukraine and all over very quickly.
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NATO have built up troops in Europe.

Biden was with the 82nd Airborne yesterday. The 82nd are frontline troops.

The US have over 10,000 troops already in Europe. Every European country have their full armed forces.

One country, Ukraine has held off the “might” of the Russian Empire in one month.

Putin can’t take on the whole of Europe, they have shown that they do not have the ground forces to hold on even in Ukraine 🇺🇦
 
Seasider3610 said:
NATO have built up troops in Europe.

Biden was with the 82nd Airborne yesterday. The 82nd are frontline troops.

The US have over 10,000 troops already in Europe. Every European country have their full armed forces.

One country, Ukraine has held off the “might” of the Russian Empire in one month.

Putin can’t take on the whole of Europe, they have shown that they do not have the ground forces to hold on even in Ukraine 🇺🇦
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My poi was they’re doing it now, but should have done it earlier as a preventative measure.
 
seasideone said:
Thank god you are nowhere near any seat of power ☢️
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Those in the seat of power are doing it now, I’m saying if they’d done it earlier, it might have prevented the invasion. Doing it now carries the same risk, so what’s the difference? Possibly would have saved the destruction of cities, lives lost and the refugee crisis.
 
bollieboy said:
I think Putin will have seen he can't win the victory he was initially looking for (ie quickoverthrow of Kviv installation of a puppet government) and the altenative is a protracted conflict that he can't win. He needs an off-ramp that he can sell internally as a victory. The rest of the world know he is a busted flush so that is all he can aim for. Either way the clock is ticking for him as his weakness has been exposed for all to see (except the unconnected Russian public) .
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I think the question is "can he win"; so long as he's prepared to take his time and advance slowly, I think he can win.
 
Matesrates said:
Those in the seat of power are doing it now, I’m saying if they’d done it earlier, it might have prevented the invasion. Doing it now carries the same risk, so what’s the difference? Possibly would have saved the destruction of cities, lives lost and the refugee crisis.
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I have to disagree as they are putting nowhere near the trips to repel an invasion in Europe.

...and not once have they said they will fight Russia over Ukraine.
 
seasideone said:
I have to disagree as they are putting nowhere near the trips to repel an invasion in Europe.

...and not once have they said they will fight Russia over Ukraine.
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That’s the problem for me, they said right at the start, we won’t fight Russia, that gave the green light to Putin to invade.
 
Matesrates said:
My poi was they’re doing it now, but should have done it earlier as a preventative measure.
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They did.

www.nato.int

NATO’s military presence in the east of the Alliance

An important component of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture is military presence in the eastern part of Alliance territory. In recent years, Allies have enhanced NATO’s forward presence by establishing multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland...
www.nato.int www.nato.int

This is the 28th Feb when it first started kicking off
 
Seasider3610 said:
They did.

www.nato.int

NATO’s military presence in the east of the Alliance

An important component of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture is military presence in the eastern part of Alliance territory. In recent years, Allies have enhanced NATO’s forward presence by establishing multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland...
www.nato.int www.nato.int

This is the 28th Feb when it first started kicking off
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Also remember that the RWNJs (Farage, Trump, etc) were very vocal that sending US troops to eastern Europe was a provocation to Putin and we shouldn't be doing it.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I'm sorry but this thread comes across as just a bit too jubilant. Whilst correct that ground troops are struggling - and that is great news - Russia has a mountain of missiles and shells that it can release remotely, from Russia and from its navy. Those projectiles will destroy towns, cities and people. There is nothing to be applauded about that.
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Those pressing the buttons from afar will not have the emotional responses we are told the frontline troops have been experiencing, they just have targets to aim at without seeing the aftermath, so it will be easier for them.
 
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So verified reports state that Russian soldiers are stripping, beating and raping Ukraine civilians now. Shooting them also and letting them bleed to death, in one case over 2 days.
I no longer have sympathy for the Russian soldiers who perhaps aren’t as naive as we have been led to believe.
Abominable. And I can’t remember the last time I used that word.
For anyone interested there is a concert for Ukraine on ITV at 8 I think and I’m hoping they will be taking donations.
Shocking, despicable monsters.
 
Lala said:
So verified reports state that Russian soldiers are stripping, beating and raping Ukraine civilians now. Shooting them also and letting them bleed to death, in one case over 2 days.
I no longer have sympathy for the Russian soldiers who perhaps aren’t as naive as we have been led to believe.
Abominable. And I can’t remember the last time I used that word.
For anyone interested there is a concert for Ukraine on ITV at 8 I think and I’m hoping they will be taking donations.
Shocking, despicable monsters.
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Not a surprise I'm afraid, this is what happens when badly trained, badly led soldiers meet civilians, particularly if the supply situation gets screwed up (as the Russians have done).

First off they start looting for food, because they really do need it, then they find the booze, so they take that, and of course any other valuables they find go missing too, then once they've got used to the idea that they're entitled to take what they want they decide that also applies to the local girls as well, at which point instead of an army what you now have is a heavily armed drunken rape gang and god help anyone who gets in their way.
 
Lala said:
So verified reports state that Russian soldiers are stripping, beating and raping Ukraine civilians now. Shooting them also and letting them bleed to death, in one case over 2 days.
I no longer have sympathy for the Russian soldiers who perhaps aren’t as naive as we have been led to believe.
Abominable. And I can’t remember the last time I used that word.
For anyone interested there is a concert for Ukraine on ITV at 8 I think and I’m hoping they will be taking donations.
Shocking, despicable monsters.
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They’re taking donations, or you can donate at dec.org.uk
 
Johnno said:
Big fan of the Manics, may favourite song too. But yes, some good artists helping out.
👍
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Ye great song 👌 Becky Hill can belt a good tune out too.

Every credit. No one trying to steal the show, just on with their performance and straight off.
Let’s hope they raise a good amount 👌
 
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