Recession

M

Matesrates

Well-known member
Bank of England increased base rate today to 1% and forecast inflation will rise to over 10% and we will be in recession by the end of the year. Tighten your belts chap.
 
Matesrates said:
Bank of England increased base rate today to 1% and forecast inflation will rise to over 10% and we will be in recession by the end of the year. Tighten your belts chap.
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I heard something briefly today that said, one economist thinks we are already in a recession and interest rates need cutting now.

I'm not sure what the answer is, personal inflation is well over 10% now coupled with tax rises are taking money out of the economy; wage inflation is holding steady - discretionary spending will already be going down. I can't see why interest rates going up is going to help that much. The only bright spot appears to be low unemployment - but that might well be down to people having to hold multiple jobs down to make ends meet.

We maybe on the cusp of Japanese style stagflation which could last another 20 years coupled with a housing market crash.
 
Such a shame really. Twelve years of hard work from the Tories....extending the gap between the rich and the rest, extending the NHS waiting lists, extending the incidents of violent crimes, reducing life chances for the less well off, raising taxes on ordinary people to pay for covering up cuts in the NHS whilst cutting taxes on the wealthy, cutting the size of the armed forces, putting the Good Friday Agreement at risk, failing the Windrush generation, causing more COVID deaths than there should have been through neglect, hubris and inefficiency...and yet, despite all this hard work, we're heading into another recession. I guess some political parties are just unlucky.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Such a shame really. Twelve years of hard work from the Tories....extending the gap between the rich and the rest, extending the NHS waiting lists, extending the incidents of violent crimes, reducing life chances for the less well off, raising taxes on ordinary people to pay for covering up cuts in the NHS whilst cutting taxes on the wealthy, cutting the size of the armed forces, putting the Good Friday Agreement at risk, failing the Windrush generation, causing more COVID deaths than there should have been through neglect, hubris and inefficiency...and yet, despite all this hard work, we're heading into another recession. I guess some political parties are just unlucky.
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That should post should stop immigration 👍...or maybe not😉
 
1966_and_all_that said:
As long as it doesn't stop asylum seekers.
Did you know that of all the Ukrainians who have qualified for visas into the UK, some 59,000 are still unable to get in because of Home Office bureaucracy?
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Maybe they should get in dinghy’s and cross the channel, seems to work for most.
 
The obsession some posters have with the lockdown diverts from other issues at hand. Firstly there was brexit, it's been done to death and I can't be fussed going over it. The second are interest rates that have been unhealthily low for 11 years, that have been used as a sticking plaster to bolster the economy. Did anyone think that was a good idea? It did create a borrowing culture though to pay for shiny things. Quantitive easing has also become the norm with the bank of England printing money to pump into the economy, yes folks that happened, free money! That has inevitably led to inflation issues, here endeth the sticking plaster, it was always a bullshit solution but fools felt rich as their house grew in value beyond their wildest dreams whilst neglecting the fact it had screwed any chance of their children buying a home. When the shit hits the fan at least no one can blame the economically illiterate boom and bust labour can they? The other disaster to follow is the unprecedented cut backs in the guise of austerity, nothing to cut back anymore. In fact the country needs an influx of capital spending on its schools, infrastructure, transport and public services.
 
Gordon Brown created quantititave easing because otherwise ordinary people would have lost everything. How much have the banks paid back? Diddly squat!
 
Shandypants said:
The obsession some posters have with the lockdown diverts from other issues at hand. Firstly there was brexit, it's been done to death and I can't be fussed going over it. The second are interest rates that have been unhealthily low for 11 years, that have been used as a sticking plaster to bolster the economy. Did anyone think that was a good idea? It did create a borrowing culture though to pay for shiny things. Quantitive easing has also become the norm with the bank of England printing money to pump into the economy, yes folks that happened, free money! That has inevitably led to inflation issues, here endeth the sticking plaster, it was always a bullshit solution but fools felt rich as their house grew in value beyond their wildest dreams whilst neglecting the fact it had screwed any chance of their children buying a home. When the shit hits the fan at least no one can blame the economically illiterate boom and bust labour can they? The other disaster to follow is the unprecedented cut backs in the guise of austerity, nothing to cut back anymore. In fact the country needs an influx of capital spending on its schools, infrastructure, transport and public services.
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A41AD36F-66DD-4C2C-BABC-47F61AF615F8.jpg
 
Shandypants said:
QE has been going on a lot longer than 2 years and interest rates have been pegged back at ludicrously low levels to encourage borrowing and spending. As a saver its been woeful, the policy has encouraged debt.
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I’ll give you the interest rates.
 
Wizaard said:
Leaving the EU obviously having a great positive effect as forecast.
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Clearly Britain is the only country facing economic problems right now...

The global economy never truly recovered from 2009. Money printing meant that the big lines kept going up for the rich. The working class have seen their purchasing power reduced year on year whilst being priced out of the housing markets.

Globalism needs to die. Vulture capitalism needs to die. A new world needs to rise from the ashes.
 
poolseasider said:
Inflation in the EU 7.8% Germany 7.4 Spain 8.4 all higher than the UK but hey it's all our fault for leaving.
Utter horseshite.
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I don't believe that leaving the EU is a major contributing factor to inflation. It is, however, causing other significant issues: supply of goods, the N.Ireland border, contractual issues. Brexit has not gone well so far but inflation is to do with other factors.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I don't believe that leaving the EU is a major contributing factor to in go lation. It is, however, causing other significant issues: supply of goods, the N.Ireland border, contractual issues. Brexit has not gone well so far but inflation is to do with other factors.
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Correct but the thread is about inflation and posters can't help themselves going on the anti Brexit and Tory bashing can they.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I don't believe that leaving the EU is a major contributing factor to inflation. It is, however, causing other significant issues: supply of goods, the N.Ireland border, contractual issues. Brexit has not gone well so far but inflation is to do with other factors.
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The reality is that leaving a trade bloc isn't going to cause either armageddon nor elysium. Countries have formed and abandoned trading partnerships since time immemorial.

The whole world is currently facing a supply crisis due to its over-reliance on global logistics. The last 2 years, and the next 20 will show why globalism is a terrible idea.
 
GeminiPool said:
The reality is that leaving a trade bloc isn't going to cause either armageddon nor elysium. Countries have formed and abandoned trading partnerships since time immemorial.

The whole world is currently facing a supply crisis due to its over-reliance on global logistics. The last 2 years, and the next 20 will show why globalism is a terrible idea.
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A bit of politics here but I always thought off-shoring was wrong.
 
Shandypants said:
So QE hasn't been going on for 10 years??? The pandemic is a classic distraction for 10 years of ineptitude and other things I can't be fussed discussing.....
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I assume your not saying the pandemic was on purpose? Just lucky I guess 😒
 
Austria, Hungary, Belgium,Greece, Estonia, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia,Poland,Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal,Romania, Slovakia along with Germany and Spain all have higher inflation than the UK.
But it's all Brexit's fault.🤣
 
poolseasider said:
Austria, Hungary, Belgium,Greece, Estonia, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia,Poland,Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal,Romania, Slovakia along with Germany and Spain all have higher inflation than the UK.
But it's all Brexit's fault.🤣
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But..but... it’s all down to Brexit 😆
 
No that's true. You haven't said it but you don't need to. It's plainly
obvious from the amount of whining and the repetitive posting you do on here about it.
You're seriously obsessed.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
No that's true. You haven't said it but you don't need to. It's plainly
obvious from the amount of whining and the repetitive posting you do on here about it.
You're seriously obsessed.
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Another repetitive gaslighting post! Where is the clear statement about how great things will be and a positive future? All I hear are brexiteers calling remainers as moaners...sorry rhe tangible benefit has to be a tad better than that
 
Shandypants said:
Another repetitive gaslighting post! Where is the clear statement about how great things will be and a positive future? All I hear are brexiteers calling remainers as moaners...sorry rhe tangible benefit has to be a tad better than that
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You just can't see normal people have put Brexit behind them and are getting on with things and are sick to the back teeth of the constant whinging and moaning. You're like a bunch of petulant cry babies
It's 6 years ago but there's been no let up in your moaning. Either give it a rest and give us all a break or get some counselling
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
You just can't see normal people have put Brexit behind them and are getting on with things and are sick to the back teeth of the constant whinging and moaning. You're like a bunch of petulant cry babies
It's 6 years ago but there's been no let up in your moaning. Either give it a rest and give us all a break or get some counselling
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Youve done it again. A post that attacks people with genuine concerns, without adding one single tangible benefit. As you say 6 years in and nothing to show besides down sides.
 
Well the vaccine roll out compared to the EU certainly wasn't a downside that's for sure.
The EU took 7 years to negotiate a trade deal with Canada. The UK has just done one with Australia in a lot less time
Two good examples of being able to act quickly without waiting for 27 other countries to reach agreement. And I'm sure there will be many other examples going forward of that ability to get things done quicker when not tied to a cumbersome and bereaucratic EU.
And I don't see that the sky has fallen in since we left the EU like so many of you predicted
I accept there will be and have been some downsides, but when I voted leave I was looking at the long term and I've said that consistently on here.
And if there were another referendum tomorrow I'd vote leave with just as much conviction.
But I'm not going to waste any more of my weekend arguing when it's been done to death already
Like I said in my previous post, after 6 years it's time to move on.
 
poolseasider said:
So why have Germany and Spain got higher inflation then? OK.👍
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Only in this last month's figures has Germany creep above the UK at 7.3% versus 7%. Previously Germany was at 5.1%. So obviously their Russian Gas dependency has altered their situation but even now, it's still neck and neck with the UK.

Given we don't have such a big dependency on Russia, you have to then look elsewhere as to why the UK has such high inflation and to ignore Brexit and its long term strangulation effect on the economy would simply be an act of self-delusion.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Only in this last month's figures has Germany creep above the UK at 7.3% versus 7%. Previously Germany was at 5.1%. So obviously their Russian Gas dependency has altered their situation but even now, it's still neck and neck with the UK.

Given we don't have such a big dependency on Russia, you have to then look elsewhere as to why the UK has such high inflation and to ignore Brexit and its long term strangulation effect on the economy would simply be an act of self-delusion.
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We've just spunked trillions of imaginary pounds on the pandemic - as have all of these other countries experiencing runaway inflation. Money created out of thin air. The delusion if there is one is to ignore the bloody big elephant in the room.
 
rockontommy said:
We've just spunked trillions of imaginary pounds on the pandemic - as have all of these other countries experiencing runaway inflation. Money created out of thin air. The delusion if there is one is to ignore the bloody big elephant in the room.
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Blaming Russian gas and oil is also another terrible argument everyone is paying high prices in Europe not just those who bought fuel from the Ruskies.
100% caused by these pointless lockdowns and paying every one to sit at home.
 
poolseasider said:
Blaming Russian gas and oil is also another terrible argument everyone is paying high prices in Europe not just those who bought fuel from the Ruskies.
100% caused by these pointless lockdowns and paying every one to sit at home.
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I wouldn't mind but it's been hard enough just trying to exist these last two years alongside everyone losing their ** minds. I'm at the stage where I'm willing to just pick up the tab and move on but the ones calling for this crap won't even own it. Hardly Rudyard Kipling's 'If' is it, blaming everyone and everything rather than sucking it up.
 
Always tangerine said:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com
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This commentary is heavily based on predictions instead of facts. Adam Posen's claim makes no sense at all if applied to the current rates of inflation, but he was actually referring to International Monetary Fund forecasts for 2023, when the UK is expected to suffer the highest inflation in the G7. This is just speculation. Citing IMF projections as evidence here is also circular: the IMF expects UK inflation to remain high because of Brexit and so this is what it is forecasting. But it has been spectacularly wrong on the UK economy for many years. In short, it is plausible that the departure from the EU has added, a little, to the upward pressures on UK prices. This underlines the importance of efforts to ease trade frictions, reduce uncertainty, and exploit new Brexit opportunities to offset these additional costs. However, any Brexit impact on inflation has been dwarfed by other factors – and these are likely to continue both here and globally.
 
Such fun
tommytwojags said:
This commentary is heavily based on predictions instead of facts. Adam Posen's claim makes no sense at all if applied to the current rates of inflation, but he was actually referring to International Monetary Fund forecasts for 2023, when the UK is expected to suffer the highest inflation in the G7. This is just speculation. Citing IMF projections as evidence here is also circular: the IMF expects UK inflation to remain high because of Brexit and so this is what it is forecasting. But it has been spectacularly wrong on the UK economy for many years. In short, it is plausible that the departure from the EU has added, a little, to the upward pressures on UK prices. This underlines the importance of efforts to ease trade frictions, reduce uncertainty, and exploit new Brexit opportunities to offset these additional costs. However, any Brexit impact on inflation has been dwarfed by other factors – and these are likely to continue both here and globally.
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Hes not the only one saying it.
 
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