Are The Govt Now Being Too Cautious ?

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
18M received 1st dose by the way - we aren’t fully vaccinated yet bar @600,000 or so (as of 19/02)
They might not be but the modelling suggests that effective protection is achieved after 21 days

If it isn't safe to meet people in small groups in or outside how can it be safe to send children back to mix and then take whatever they have picked up home - that's the point I am making

Fully appreciate that pubs / restaurants / football etc is some way off yet but as things stand I can't go walking out of the locality / meet more than one person to exercise and a not mean't to leave home unless it's for essential travel Those provisions must be relaxed at the same time as the phased return of schools start IMO
 

fcblackpool

Well-known member
They might not be but the modelling suggests that effective protection is achieved after 21 days

If it isn't safe to meet people in small groups in or outside how can it be safe to send children back to mix and then take whatever they have picked up home - that's the point I am making

Fully appreciate that pubs / restaurants / football etc is some way off yet but as things stand I can't go walking out of the locality / meet more than one person to exercise and a not mean't to leave home unless it's for essential travel Those provisions must be relaxed at the same time as the phased return of schools start IMO
TAM, I think come Monday some relaxations as you state are needed will happen.

Let's wait and see what they bring.
 

SEASIDE2020

Well-known member
It really isn't the same is it?

No, it's not the same but I just feel that the steps we are taking - restrictions, etc - are way OTT considering the general effect the virus has on the majority of the population.

Some are of the opinion that the Government have not been cautious enough, my opinion is that - considering health, wealth and all other factors - the Government have been overly cautious.
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
No, it's not the same but I just feel that the steps we are taking - restrictions, etc - are way OTT considering the general effect the virus has on the majority of the population.

Some are of the opinion that the Government have not been cautious enough, my opinion is that - considering health, wealth and all other factors - the Government have been overly cautious.

40,000 in hospital at the peak, how high would you like to see that number go before they take action?
 

SEASIDE2020

Well-known member
40,000 in hospital at the peak, how high would you like to see that number go before they take action?

Lost

Sorry but think you must have misinterpreted my posts.

I didn't say that they should take no action or even make the slightest suggestion.

I think that the Government have been too cautious.

One death is more than any of us want but I am afraid that we don't have unlimited resources to deal with things and deaths are inevitable.

Unfortunately that's the case with other diseases/conditions and not just this virus.

You don't have to agree with me I'm not suggesting the Government shouldn't have done anything for a second.
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
Lost

Sorry but think you must have misinterpreted my posts.

I didn't say that they should take no action or even make the slightest suggestion.

I think that the Government have been too cautious.

Fair enough, but I think the suggestion that the government is being too cautious isn't well founded.

With the current restrictions we seem to have levelled out at about 12,000 cases per day, which might very roughly equate to a bit less than 1,000 new hospital patients a day and perhaps 200 - 300 deaths per day, these are still very high numbers, without the restrictions where would we be? 20,000 cases per day? 40,000?
 

SomersetSeasider

Well-known member
You have evidence for this? It certainly doesn't conform with my understanding of the situation.

The short answer for the rest is "we don't know", we don't know what the effect of the schools returning will be, we don't know what the effect of relaxing other measures will be, so a phased and monitored exit from lockdown seems a reasonable approach.

What we do know is that some people will complain regardless of what the government does, regardless of the evidence or expert scientific advice, so it is guaranteed that the government will leave lockdown too slow/late and too fast/early at the same time.
It’s called having an opinion!
 

SEASIDE2020

Well-known member
Fair enough, but I think the suggestion that the government is being too cautious isn't well founded.

With the current restrictions we seem to have levelled out at about 12,000 cases per day, which might very roughly equate to a bit less than 1,000 new hospital patients a day and perhaps 200 - 300 deaths per day, these are still very high numbers, without the restrictions where would we be? 20,000 cases per day? 40,000?

Lost

That's fair enough.

The Government have a tough job and are damned if they do and damned if they don't, personally I just think that they have been over cautious - and certainly are being now - and as I already said, I feel that such an approach has too much to do with the daft modern world and particularly 24/7 news.

I don't think the Government would have been as cautious let's say 40 years ago.

I have no problem with your views on the matter Lost and I'm sure plenty with agree with you.
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
The Government have a tough job and are damned if they do and damned if they don't, personally I just think that they have been over cautious - and certainly are being now - and as I already said, I feel that such an approach has too much to do with the daft modern world and particularly 24/7 news.

Fair enough, but the hospitals were pretty much at breaking point a month ago, and even with the old tiered restrictions cases were rocketing back in December and could very quickly get back to that level so I think the caution is understandable.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Cases rocketed because they didn't do what they should have done between Oct-Dec and green-lighted household mixing in the run up to xmas and then stupidly sent children back into school for a day

Now we have vaccinated the most at risk they need to start relaxing the toughest restrictions
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
Cases rocketed because they didn't do what they should have done between Oct-Dec and green-lighted household mixing in the run up to xmas and then stupidly sent children back into school for a day

Now we have vaccinated the most at risk they need to start relaxing the toughest restrictions
Such as?
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
Not being able to meet your own family inside or out
Not being able to travel out of area unless essential / work
Not being able to participate in outside sports such as golf and football
I think he will sanction meeting outside at the same time as schools go back.
I'd not thought of the second one tbh. Would that then, from our towns perspective, encourage the sort of gatherings on the prom we saw during lockdown 1 and is that something we want?
Thirdly golf spoils a good walk. Kids football/ sport would be great for them.
 

Lost Seasider

Well-known member
Cases rocketed because they didn't do what they should have done between Oct-Dec and green-lighted household mixing in the run up to xmas and then stupidly sent children back into school for a day

Nothing at all to do with the new 50% - 70% more transmissible variant that's now got the whole of Europe in a panic, yeah, right.

Also the timing is off, cases started to rise even in T3 areas well before christmas.

Finally I've no idea what you think they should've done in October/November when cases were more or less under control.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Nothing at all to do with the new 50% - 70% more transmissible variant that's now got the whole of Europe in a panic, yeah, right.

Also the timing is off, cases started to rise even in T3 areas well before christmas.

Finally I've no idea what you think they should've done in October/November when cases were more or less under control.
No they weren't they were rising rapidly from when the schools went back in September

The scientists advised a circuit breaker to coincide with the Oct half term holidays - they wouldn't have done that if things were under control
 

Loco

Well-known member
Not being able to meet your own family inside or out
Not being able to travel out of area unless essential / work
Not being able to participate in outside sports such as golf and football
I wouldn't be so sure that middle one will change if the others are relaxed. A few things I've read recently seems to suggest control of movement is going to continue to prevent variants from moving around the country. I hope I'm wrong.
 

Thelaneends1

Well-known member
How can schools all go back 8/3 and yet the rest of us have to stay locked up until Easter ?

Surely with most of the vulnerable categories scheduled to be vaccinated in time for the schools return they’ve got to slacken off a bit ?

I’ve been an advocate of tougher measures but it now seems they have gone too far the other way after delaying firm action when it was required.

With the lions share of transmission in school age children they can’t possibility justify schools all back in two weeks but no meet ups and shops staying closed for another six weeks



Families will be allowed to meet outdoors over Easter under plans being considered for Boris Johnson’s road map for easing lockdown restrictions.
The prime minister is expected to introduce new rules allowing two households to meet outdoors, regardless of their size.
The move goes further than the “rule of six”, which left some families unable to meet. Under the new plans two households would be able to meet outdoors from April while gatherings of six people from six different households would also be allowed.
The introduction of the rule of six caused cabinet divisions last year after several senior ministers, including Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, spoke out against it. They argued that the limit should be at least eight, amid concerns that it penalised families from different households by barring them from meeting.
Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, backed the measure at the time amid concerns that mixing by households was spreading the virus.


The plans will be included in the prime minister’s road map, which is being launched on Monday. The document will include “tentative” early dates for easing the lockdown and reopening the economy, starting with the return of schools on March 8.

However, social distancing will remain in place for months to come along with the wearing of facemasks and advice that people should work from home where possible. The document is expected to include dates for those policies to be formally reviewed, in an attempt to appease Tory MPs who are pushing for all lockdown restrictions to be eased at the end of May.


The Times reported earlier this week that ministers were considering whether to allow people to go on self-catering holidays for the Easter break. Mark Drakeford, the first minister of Wales, confirmed yesterday that he hopes to enable limited tourism over the Easter period.

“What we will work on . . . is the possibility — and it is only that — of some limited reopening around Easter of self-contained accommodation only,” Drakeford said. “Places where people don’t mix with other people, where there aren’t shared facilities. That is how we began the reopening of tourism in Wales. If we can bring that forward to Easter, I know that would be a huge relief to many hundreds of thousands of families in Wales.”

He did not say whether people from other parts of Britain would be able to visit — in particular residents of England who own caravans or second homes in Wales.

Professor Neil Ferguson, an architect of the first lockdown, told Today on BBC Radio 4 that people would be isolating “forevermore” if the desire was to eliminate Covid-19.

“We’re not going to eliminate globally so we won’t eliminate here,” he said. “I would like to see this virus become like influenza and managed in similar ways.

“I think the one thing this pandemic has generated is a whole new generation of vaccines which frankly are much more effective than the influenza vaccines we typically use year to year. And so I think long-term we do have very promising prospects for pulling down the burden of disease, the mortality caused by this virus.”

Britain yesterday recorded 533 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test, with the seven-day total down 27.7 per cent on the previous week. A further 12,027 cases were recorded, with the seven-day total down 20.3 per cent. The latest government R estimate for the whole of the UK is between 0.6 and 0.9 compared with 0.7 and 0.9 last week.

Sarah Crofts, senior statistician for the Covid-19 infection survey, said: “While we are seeing a welcome further decrease in infection rates across the UK in the week ending 12 February, the numbers do still remain high and are similar to infection levels seen at the end of November.”

Mike Tildesley, a member of the government’s SPI-M modelling group, has warned about reopening too quickly and seeing the R number rising again.

He told BBC Breakfast: “We do know any form of reopening will cause the R number to go up so that needs very, very careful monitoring. “The vaccination campaign is going very, very well . . . but where we need to be careful is if we open too quickly and don’t allow the vaccination programme to help us, we run the [risk] of things resurging a little bit. I totally appreciate and understand the need to get children back in the classroom . . . the key thing for me is we need to do it in a way that schools don’t have to close again.”
Agree with this completely.
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
No they weren't they were rising rapidly from when the schools went back in September

The scientists advised a circuit breaker to coincide with the Oct half term holidays - they wouldn't have done that if things were under control
They actually first proposed a circuit break from September 23rd because the modelling was suggesting a spike in cases but that was rejected. We then had 5 weeks of prevarication and a sort of half hearted lockdown which basically just stopped anyone going out for a meal and beer.
These things should not be forgotten by those on here that would attempt to whitewash history. This is why he has to get this right. I'd much rather him being overly cautious and adding a few weeks to when we can get back to a degree of normality than for him to cave in and fuck us up. This lockdown has been a lot shitter for the vast majority. Having another one of this magnitude would be disastrous.
 

SEASIDE2020

Well-known member
Fair enough, but the hospitals were pretty much at breaking point a month ago, and even with the old tiered restrictions cases were rocketing back in December and could very quickly get back to that level so I think the caution is understandable.

Fair enough Lost.

I am not saying the hospitals weren't at breaking point but can't help but think things are being presented to suit narratives - albeit sometimes for the greater good.

I do think either of us is for shifting on this Lost.
 

Insider

Well-known member
Personally, I’m past caring...

I’ve been consistently ignoring Government advice and doing my own thing since June 2020 and it’s served me very well.👍
Which one of you is saying this?
Is it sensible Daz or BFC3 just having a poke?
No need to reply, just keep us guessing. 😉
 

Mark_GT

Well-known member
The British do seem to have a way of stretching the point when it comes to any imposed rule. I think that is why the belated extreme caution has come into play following so many complete lash ups from the powers that be. The bar has to be set below the level at which a small but significant proportion of people will actually obey. It was a half decent day today on Wirral and on my bide ride along Hoylake prom noted the area was mobbed. I saw vehicles clearly not from the area, people in largish groups etc. Dare I say it, it looked almost "normal" out there?
We're so near the point at which the vaccination programme can have a material effect. It therefore seems to me worth holding out just a bit longer and tipping the odds in our favour so that any future setbacks are minor and controllable.
 

BFC_BFC_BFC

Well-known member
Irresponsible behaviour let's just hope you dont get this terrible killer, both my parents have now died from this and watching them was terrible.
I’ve actually been much more cautious that the Government advice, which has tended to be pretty stupid at times.

Sorry to hear about your family, but I certainly haven’t contributed to the transmission of Covid pal.
 
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1950`spoolfan

Well-known member
Irresponsible behaviour let's just hope you dont get this terrible killer, both my parents have now died from this and watching them was terrible.
How terrible.So sad for you . My words are completely inadequate for the suffering you must be going through.

It just underlines the glibly irresponsible and selfish attitudes of some who perhaps because they or those around them have not personally suffered significantly from this deadly virus think the rules don`t apply to them .You would have thought with the horrific number of deaths that the penny would have dropped by now.This virus can be lethal and spreads by people getting too close to each other especially indoors.

It`s not rocket science and the more we do to reduce transmission the less is the risk that variants will disastrously undermine the effectiveness of the vaccine heaven forbid,which would remove our only way out.
 

Adams Kebab

Well-known member
They actually first proposed a circuit break from September 23rd because the modelling was suggesting a spike in cases but that was rejected. We then had 5 weeks of prevarication and a sort of half hearted lockdown which basically just stopped anyone going out for a meal and beer.
These things should not be forgotten by those on here that would attempt to whitewash history. This is why he has to get this right. I'd much rather him being overly cautious and adding a few weeks to when we can get back to a degree of normality than for him to cave in and fuck us up. This lockdown has been a lot shitter for the vast majority. Having another one of this magnitude would be disastrous.
History won’t be whitewashed but the vaccine was meant to be a game changer wasn’t it.

As game changers go the rumoured lifting of restrictions are worse than our tactics at Ipswich.
 

southshorepool

Well-known member
History won’t be whitewashed but the vaccine was meant to be a game changer wasn’t it.

As game changers go the rumoured lifting of restrictions are worse than our tactics at Ipswich.
Of course it's a game changer but not overnight. Patience. We've had months of this shit and trust me I am as fucked off as everyone else is but another two or three months to ensure that vast numbers are vaccinated and daily cases are right down to track and traceable levels has to be worth it. Imo.
 

BFC_BFC_BFC

Well-known member
Which one of you is saying this?
Is it sensible Daz or BFC3 just having a poke?
No need to reply, just keep us guessing. 😉
The comment was made in response to the O/P Insy, but it probably wasn't clear as a few people have pulled me up. What I mean is that it really doesn't matter what the Government do, I'll be using my own common sense, just like I did during the Summer and beyond. So I didn't get involved in daft schemes like "Eat out to Help Out", haven't been into a pub (have sat outside one) and remained vigilant regardless. I do my shopping via Click and Collect and have minimal contact with the outside world, but I do drive into the countryside and walk in the open air and I have stood on my parents driveway and had a chat with them through the window (even during the latest lockdown). I'd say I've been in close enough contact (in an indoor setting) to catch Covid with 3 people since beginning of March 2020 outdoors i've probably had (none close contact) with a further 7 or 8 people.
 

Insider

Well-known member
The comment was made in response to the O/P Insy, but it probably wasn't clear as a few people have pulled me up. What I mean is that it really doesn't matter what the Government do, I'll be using my own common sense, just like I did during the Summer and beyond. So I didn't get involved in daft schemes like "Eat out to Help Out", haven't been into a pub (have sat outside one) and remained vigilant regardless. I do my shopping via Click and Collect and have minimal contact with the outside world, but I do drive into the countryside and walk in the open air and I have stood on my parents driveway and had a chat with them through the window (even during the latest lockdown). I'd say I've been in close enough contact (in an indoor setting) to catch Covid with 3 people since beginning of March 2020 outdoors i've probably had (none close contact) with a further 7 or 8 people.
Very sensible. I expected nothing less. 👍
I'd like to think I've been sensible without dotting every i and crossing every t.
 

Adams Kebab

Well-known member
Of course it's a game changer but not overnight. Patience. We've had months of this shit and trust me I am as fucked off as everyone else is but another two or three months to ensure that vast numbers are vaccinated and daily cases are right down to track and traceable levels has to be worth it. Imo.
Patience? It’s only 3 weeks to flatten the curve...
 

SEASIDE2020

Well-known member
Generally it's a good idea to base opinions on verifiable facts, otherwise what is the value of the opinion?

That's a good point Lost.

I was heavily criticised very recently by some on here for failing to offer an opinion on a subjective matter.

I have no problem with folk offering opinions on anything but you do leave yourself wide open to some posters on here when offering an opinion on a subjective matter that differs from that of their own.

The very same posters also don't like you failing to offer an opinion on such matters !!!!!!!!!!!!

You couldn't make it up.
 

Adams Kebab

Well-known member
Maybe I'm being a bit dense but ??
I was referring to the line we were fed 11 months ago, it’s only 3 weeks to flatten the curve... it’s only a 4 week circuit breaker... it’s only Christmas... its only a lockdown...

I get we need restrictions, but if the rumours are true, then mid-April for non-essential retail and May for pubs is the work of the devil.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Well if Boris listens to SAGE he's being reckless

Don't get the pessimism myself - where are all these deaths coming from if the most vulnerable are vaccinated and they work as well as they say ?

Tens of thousands more people will die of Covid-19 as Britain opens up, government scientific advisers have concluded.

Even a gradual easing during the spring is likely to produce a peak on the scale of last month or last April because so many people remain susceptible, according to modelling by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

Lifting all restrictions from the end of April would lead to a far bigger wave of hospital admissions than last month and some limits on social contact will be needed into the summer, the models suggest.

Sage told ministers last week that mask-wearing, avoiding crowds and contact tracing may be needed indefinitely to keep the virus under control.

The group recommended five-week gaps between rounds of easing to avoid having to reimpose restrictions and today Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, warned that the government would be “flying blind” if it went faster. Pausing to assess the effect of each change was the only way in which Boris Johnson could be sure his route out of lockdown would be irreversible, he said.

The Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs has insisted there is no justification for restrictions to remain in law beyond April. However, modelling by Imperial College London for Sage forecasts that lifting all rules from April 26 would lead to a further 91,000 deaths and a peak of almost 60,000 patients in hospital, about 50 per cent higher than last month.
The SPI-M modelling group says that under the “most optimistic” assumptions “at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths” were expected.

Allowing people to meet in groups of six indoors from May would see a wave of hospital admissions similar to last month, SPI-M concluded. Pushing this stage back until June or July, with a full lifting of restrictions held off until July or August, would allow the wave to be kept below last spring’s peak, the modelling suggested.
Despite assuming that four million people a week are vaccinated from the spring, the scientists said up to half of the population would remain at risk.

Vallance told a press conference today that even once the vaccine had been offered to all adults, who comprise 80 per cent of the population, if both vaccine effectiveness and uptake were also 80 per cent, “you've got roughly 50 per cent [protected] across the whole population. So it tells you that even at quite high levels of coverage and protection, you've still got a large number of people unprotected.”

He pointed to Israel where despite high vaccination rates “you're seeing an increase in hospitalisation amongst younger people . . . because they’ve got the older people protected, which is encouraging in terms of vaccine efficacy but it tells you what you potentially see if you have a big epidemic before you've got everybody vaccinated.”

He said that lockdown release was starting from a “not very good position” and that “it’s likely you get an increase in cases when you open up”. Given this, the longer it was delayed to increase vaccine coverage the fewer cases and deaths there would be, he said, adding: “The slower you do it, the better.”

Angela McLean, the deputy chief scientific adviser, said that the return of pupils on March 8 “sounds good to me because that gets children back to school for a few weeks before the Easter holidays, which then gives us some time to comb through the data and understand what's happened.”

Opening schools will increase the R rate — which measures virus transmission — by between 10 and 50 per cent according to estimates by SPI-M. Although transmission is lower in primary schools, that could be offset by allowing parents to return to work and the paper suggested that allowing pupils to return “in the absence of easing other restrictions, would allow for an assessment of the impact on community transmission”.

The paper, dated January 27, warns: “There is little room for optimism that hospitals will soon be in a position to absorb any fresh wave of infections that might be caused by a mis-timed or unrestrained reopening of schools.”

Minutes of a Sage meeting held last Thursday also concluded that “a gap of not less than five weeks between steps is advisable”, warning: “All scenarios show an epidemic resurgence which results in a substantial number of hospital admissions and deaths, though there are differences in the scale and timing . . . modelling suggests that there is the potential for a very large number of infections if restrictions are lifted early or rapidly.”

The group added that “retaining a baseline set of policies to reduce transmission after other restrictions have been lifted would reduce the scale of a resurgence”, saying this “could include voluntary measures (eg hygiene measures, mask-wearing in certain situations, avoiding crowding), environmental measures (eg ventilation), and test, trace, and isolate systems.”



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/science
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...l-die-of-covid-19-as-lockdown-eases-nkxxblktx
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Lost Seasider

Well-known member
Well if Boris listens to SAGE he's being reckless

Don't the pessimism myself - where are all these deaths coming from if the most vulnerable are vaccinated and they work as well as they say ?

Yes, I was a bit surprised about the expected death figures as well, seems somewhat on the high side.

I think the PM is doing what SAGE suggests, which is release slowly and allow a 5 week gap to monitor the effect.
 

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Yes, I was a bit surprised about the expected death figures as well, seems somewhat on the high side.

I think the PM is doing what SAGE suggests, which is release slowly and allow a 5 week gap to monitor the effect.
It just seems off the scale to me

There have been less than 500 deaths in the U45 age bracket and most of them were in the vulnerable category and do will be have been or will shortly be vaccinated
 
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