Indian Variant Out-Competing other UK variants

BigHandsOliverKahn

BigHandsOliverKahn

Well-known member
Another reminder that this isn't over yet and won't be until the rest of the world are supported and catch up with vaccinations.

Leaked Public Health England emails are showing that one Indian variant in the UK is about to be upgraded as a Variant of Concern. Cases have more than doubled in the past week, it is out competing other variants so is more transmissible and community transmission is now established. It now accounts for at least 10% of London cases and is prevalent in the North West.

Hopefully the vaccination programme here will help to protect people who catch it from the more severe impacts. Stay safe people.
 
Yup another scare story to quell the masses.

Remember a few months ago when you couldn't watch the TV for seeing cameras in hospitals, showing understandably distraught and overworked doctors and staff.

Why are we not getting any updates showing the situation now?

Stay safe indeed. Lock the doors. Wear your masks. Fear the stranger. There is no acceptable level of risk. Listen to the announcements. Etc etc.
 
Going Up the Pool said:
Yup another scare story to quell the masses.

Remember a few months ago when you couldn't watch the TV for seeing cameras in hospitals, showing understandably distraught and overworked doctors and staff.

Why are we not getting any updates showing the situation now?

Stay safe indeed. Lock the doors. Wear your masks. Fear the stranger. There is no acceptable level of risk. Listen to the announcements. Etc etc.
Click to expand...
That's exactly the attitude some people had before the first and second waves. Are 130,000 UK deaths still not enough for you? I can see a 3rd wave coming on if that's a widespread feeling.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
That's exactly the attitude some people had before the first and second waves. Are 130,000 UK deaths still not enough for you? I can see a 3rd wave coming on if that's a widespread feeling.
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It's literally impossible for a 3rd wave. And it's 100% not 130k people have died to due just COVID. Probably closer to 50/60k figures.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Another reminder that this isn't over yet and won't be until the rest of the world are supported and catch up with vaccinations.

Leaked Public Health England emails are showing that one Indian variant in the UK is about to be upgraded as a Variant of Concern. Cases have more than doubled in the past week, it is out competing other variants so is more transmissible and community transmission is now established. It now accounts for at least 10% of London cases and is prevalent in the North West.

Hopefully the vaccination programme here will help to protect people who catch it from the more severe impacts. Stay safe people.
Click to expand...
This is probably very disappointing to you but vaccines do really work against all ‘new variants’.

Are you aware that for a variant to fully evade immunity it would need to not only evade the polyclonal response of the vaccines, it would also need to evade CD8+ T-cells covering 52 epitopes across the spike protein AND CD4+ T-cells covering 23 epitopes across the spike.

You love the drama of Covid, it gives you a great feeling to shed your doom & gloom across the board but it is not a reason to not return to normality. I know you don’t appear to want a normal world which is even weirder than you appear to be.

Have a great weekend, looks like rain tomorrow so put your coat on in your house just in case you get wet.
 
“In one cluster at a care home, 14 elderly residents who had all been vaccinated, were infected with the variant, the source said. A number needed hospital treatment, but not for severe disease, and it is thought all have now recovered.”
So yeah you can still be infected even after having a vaccine,the vaccine’s are still in a trial period up until 2022.
It will be around forever just like the flu we’ll just have to live with it.
 
If people really are still hanging all their hopes on the vaccine, then they are in for a big shock. You only have to look at what's happening in Chile to see that. Vaccines help but don't cure especially when new variants keep coming along because most of the world has been left behind.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
That's exactly the attitude some people had before the first and second waves. Are 130,000 UK deaths still not enough for you? I can see a 3rd wave coming on if that's a widespread feeling.
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I think in time that figure will be dropped considerably .
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
If people really are still hanging all their hopes on the vaccine, then they are in for a big shock. You only have to look at what's happening in Chile to see that. Vaccines help but don't cure especially when new variants keep coming along because most of the world has been left behind.
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Nobody said it was a cure, we’re stuck with the virus for a long time yet. But a vaccinated population with regular boosters will see deaths in the bin. And that’s all that matters.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
If people really are still hanging all their hopes on the vaccine, then they are in for a big shock. You only have to look at what's happening in Chile to see that. Vaccines help but don't cure especially when new variants keep coming along because most of the world has been left behind.
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You're such a bundle of joy. Bet you're a barrel of laughs on a night out.
 
Going Up the Pool said:
Yup another scare story to quell the masses.

Remember a few months ago when you couldn't watch the TV for seeing cameras in hospitals, showing understandably distraught and overworked doctors and staff.

Why are we not getting any updates showing the situation now?

Stay safe indeed. Lock the doors. Wear your masks. Fear the stranger. There is no acceptable level of risk. Listen to the announcements. Etc etc.
Click to expand...
Yup. Stop thieving and fighting in the streets or Covid will get you.....

Right, job done. Cut the police budget again and buy more wallpaper.
 
Lost Seasider said:
121,850 is the excess mortality up to the start of April, that figure really isn't up for debate.
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Look where that excess mortality is occurring.It is occurring or did occur in people’s homes which indicates that the lockdowns have caused that excess mortality not COVID.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Do you have evidence for that claim?
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Screenshot-2021-05-07-at-16-31-45.png
 
People in certain parts of greater Manchester being advised to go for testing. Apparently along with Nottingham and a couple of places having seen a surge in the last fortnight.
 
Day 407 of '2 and a half weeks to flatten the curve'. I reckon using these new variants will easily push up to triple figures.
 
Ormergod said:
Screenshot-2021-05-07-at-16-31-45.png
Click to expand...

Link to your source to save others the trouble of having to find it.

Nice try, but what you've shown is that lockdown, or rather the pandemic, changes where people die and not that lockdown causes those deaths.

So the first thing to note is that the excess home deaths are broadly stable across the year, but lockdown rules varied greatly across the period from very strict to practically non-existant, were your hypothesis correct one might expect to see a greater correlation between lockdown strength and deaths.

The second thing to note is that across the summer those home deaths were cancelled out by substantially below average hospital deaths, again people are dying in different places.


For a bit of fun, lets plot the (second wave) excess mortality against case numbers and see what happens:

1620412675943.png

And of course what we see is that across the summer, when there were very few Covid cases, excess mortality was effectively zero, but as cases began to tick up from September onwards the excess mortality follows it, and then as the cases drop right back down the excess mortality drops down as well.

Sorry, but that excess mortality is Covid and not lockdown.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
That's exactly the attitude some people had before the first and second waves. Are 130,000 UK deaths still not enough for you? I can see a 3rd wave coming on if that's a widespread feeling.
Click to expand...

Exactly the kind of hysterical response I would have expected. Grow up and try and have a more informed opinion buddy.

For the record 130,000 deaths in the UK is a disgraceful outcome, although the majority of the British public don't seem to share that view judging by their acceptance of Boris's Inquiry shirking.
 
Going Up the Pool said:
Yup another scare story to quell the masses.

Remember a few months ago when you couldn't watch the TV for seeing cameras in hospitals, showing understandably distraught and overworked doctors and staff.

Why are we not getting any updates showing the situation now?

Stay safe indeed. Lock the doors. Wear your masks. Fear the stranger. There is no acceptable level of risk. Listen to the announcements. Etc etc.
Click to expand...
 
Exactly the left wing media love it. Broadcasting live outside the nearest mortuary they can find. Spewing false information. If you fell off a ladder with COVID it would still count or if you were going to die anyway it still counts. Don’t ever believe the MSM and stop paying a licence fee to a bunch of pedos.
 
Going Up the Pool said:
For the record 130,000 deaths in the UK is a disgraceful outcome,
Click to expand...

It's not actually that unusual compared to other countries, the big difference is that we report the deaths accurately and other countries don't: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

In reality we're about 22nd in the world on that list on a per capita basis, a bit ahead of Spain, a bit less than the US, a long way behind Italy (remember to check the dates) and even further behind some of the Eastern European countries.
 
So 6 days after my initial warning, which was scoffed at by several people above, what we are now seeing with this Indian variant in the UK is -

- Cases more than trippled inside a week
- Evidence from London it is more transmissible as it is out-running the Kent variant
- Areas in the North West such as Bolton as hot spots
- Wider community spread outside of the initial cluster areas
- Indications that lockdown easing may have to be delayed
- SAGE to hold an urgent meeting

Are there enough warning signs yet for the sceptics?
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
So 6 days after my initial warning, which was scoffed at by several people above, what we are now seeing with this Indian variant in the UK is -

- Cases more than trippled inside a week
- Evidence from London it is more transmissible as it is out-running the Kent variant
- Areas in the North West such as Bolton as hot spots
- Wider community spread outside of the initial cluster areas
- Indications that lockdown easing may have to be delayed
- SAGE to hold an urgent meeting

Are there enough warning signs yet for the sceptics?
Click to expand...
How many have been hospitalized?
 
In the net said:
Exactly the left wing media love it. Broadcasting live outside the nearest mortuary they can find. Spewing false information. If you fell off a ladder with COVID it would still count or if you were going to die anyway it still counts. Don’t ever believe the MSM and stop paying a licence fee to a bunch of pedos.
Click to expand...
Yes, here's famously leftie commie woke brigade Sky News with this.

news.sky.com

COVID-19 can infect penis tissue and could lead to erectile dysfunction - study

A co-author of the study says this was "yet another reason that we should all do our best to avoid COVID-19".
news.sky.com news.sky.com

And here's the basically Marxist Daily Mail

www.dailymail.co.uk

SAGE experts 'will hold emergency meeting over the Indian variant'

UK Foreign Office minister James Cleverly said officials were waiting on the outcome of an urgent meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) in the variant today.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

And for an international view, here's massively socialist Fox News

www.foxnews.com

US coronavirus deaths top 400,000 as variants threaten to take hold

The country’s dizzying pace of new, grim milestones isn’t letting up: the U.S. exceeded 400,000 deaths due to the novel coronavirus on Tuesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
News was suggesting it arrived before India Red listed and suggested also it was inbound passengers coming from of course India (being Indian variant)
Case numbers up in small pocket of areas but mainly in young people.

No current impact on hospital numbers or deaths though.
Im no scientist but would infer from that snippet of info provided that it has spread amongst non vaccinated people and at this stage the response has been to keep testing and monitoring.

Im good with that - carry on!!
 
Chunkylad said:
News was suggesting it arrived before India Red listed and suggested also it was inbound passengers coming from of course India (being Indian variant)
Case numbers up in small pocket of areas but mainly in young people.

No current impact on hospital numbers or deaths though.
Im no scientist but would infer from that snippet of info provided that it has spread amongst non vaccinated people and at this stage the response has been to keep testing and monitoring.

Im good with that - carry on!!
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On Today this morning it reported that vaccinated people were found to have this variant but there was no evidence (as yet) that this lead to increased hospital admissions.
 
Chunkylad said:
Which is fine. As long as we avoid hospitalisation there’s not a lot more we can do, barring a world of closed borders and lock down.
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A few weeks ago we were talking about the SA and Brazilian variants which it seems are dealt with by the vaccines we are using, this is another story on the same lines. All of these variants are fast spreaders which can wreak havoc and therefore we do need to help the rest of the world get vaccinated asap, to stop the spread of a vaccine dodging variant. The politics shouldn't be an issue, it's more of a matter of self interest if anything. The Indian government of course hasn't helped, in fact maybe has caused the current surge in cases there through their reckless complacency.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
So 6 days after my initial warning, which was scoffed at by several people above, what we are now seeing with this Indian variant in the UK is -

- Cases more than trippled inside a week
- Evidence from London it is more transmissible as it is out-running the Kent variant
- Areas in the North West such as Bolton as hot spots
- Wider community spread outside of the initial cluster areas
- Indications that lockdown easing may have to be delayed
- SAGE to hold an urgent meeting

Are there enough warning signs yet for the sceptics?
Click to expand...
It's the classic 'cry wolf' situation. Occasionally through all your mind numbing doom and gloom posts, the law of averages says you'll get the occasional thing right. Unfortunately, people are that sick of reading your doom and gloom, when you do get something right, nobody believes you.
 
straightatthewall said:
If only there had been a way to stop the Indian variant coming into the country...Or a way to crosscheck cases of the Indian variant with recent trips to the Indian sub-continent. But there's no way you can do any of those things and nobody else could have done any better...
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Would’ve helped if they’d stopped the masses of Indians returning before they had to quarantine in hotels!
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
So 6 days after my initial warning, which was scoffed at by several people above, what we are now seeing with this Indian variant in the UK is -

- Cases more than trippled inside a week
- Evidence from London it is more transmissible as it is out-running the Kent variant
- Areas in the North West such as Bolton as hot spots
- Wider community spread outside of the initial cluster areas
- Indications that lockdown easing may have to be delayed
- SAGE to hold an urgent meeting

Are there enough warning signs yet for the sceptics?
Click to expand...
As things stand some your comments above appear to be a gross exhaggeration or at least misleading.

1. Case numbers haven't trippled at all.. There may be some evidence of cases increasing rapidly in some areas, but the base numbers are low and as such it's difficult to draw any conculsions at this stage.

2. There's 'some limited' evidence that it 'may' be outcompeting the Kent Variant in 'some areas' of London. So once we drop the hyperbole and focus on reality, we really don't have much to suggest a looming crisis, just yet.... And let's face it, the Kent variant is likely coming to the end of it's natural life-cycle in certain communities and would inevitably be over-taken by a different variant (as happens with all existing coronaviruses and Flu's) at some point.

3. "Hot Spots" or simply areas where there is more of the new variant, due to the nature of the population.

4. Put this into context? How many cases ? Link your sources and provide detail, rather than broad brush bullshit

5 & 6 Let's see what the Scientists decide and the Government decides, but a precautionary approach makes some sense..
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
As things stand some your comments above appear to be a gross exhaggeration or at least misleading.

1. Case numbers haven't trippled at all.. There may be some evidence of cases increasing rapidly in some areas, but the base numbers are low and as such it's difficult to draw any conculsions at this stage.

2. There's 'some limited' evidence that it 'may' be outcompeting the Kent Variant in 'some areas' of London. So once we drop the hyperbole and focus on reality, we really don't have much to suggest a looming crisis, just yet.... And let's face it, the Kent variant is likely coming to the end of it's natural life-cycle in certain communities and would inevitably be over-taken by a different variant (as happens with all existing coronaviruses and Flu's) at some point.

3. "Hot Spots" or simply areas where there is more of the new variant, due to the nature of the population.

4. Put this into context? How many cases ? Link your sources and provide detail, rather than broad brush bullshit

5 & 6 Let's see what the Scientists decide and the Government decides, but a precautionary approach makes some sense..
Click to expand...
Once again you play the role of downplaying emerging trends. You refused to accept facemasks would help, refused to note the warnings of an even bigger second wave and now you are turning a blind eye once again to what is building up... just like the Indian Government were doing a few months ago.

It's reported that COG-UK has identified 1723 cases of the variant B.1617.2 this week. Last week, the total was just 520. That's more than triple.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Once again you play the role of downplaying emerging trends. You refused to accept facemasks would help, refused to note the warnings of an even bigger second wave and now you are turning a blind eye once again to what is building up... just like the Indian Government were doing a few months ago.

It's reported that COG-UK has identified 1723 cases of the variant B.1617.2 this week. Last week, the total was just 520. That's more than triple.
Click to expand...
I'm not 'playing' any 'role' and nor am I 'downplaying emerging trends', what I am doing, however is challenging the spin that you are putting onto the cirucmstances in order to somehow prove whatever point it is that you think you are making. You've just done it again in your post above.

1. I didn't 'refuse to accept that facemasks would help', I said that the evidence of facemasks was conflicting.

2. Like I said, you are being misleading with the way you are choosing to present your information. The numbers you are referring to are specifically identified cases of the variant concerned and we are aware that specific surge testing is being carried out in areas where the variant has been identified. (high levels of targeted testing will inevitably lead to identifcation of cases and that's a good thing as it shows the system is working and we can respond quickly and effectively to manage transmission).

You seem to want to be alarmist at every oppotunity and fail to offer any balance whatsoever.
 
Blackburn is one of the rising cases which worries me as usually when they start rising they don’t stop rising there and it’s a trigger for other areas.

Hope I’m being over the top but I’m a bit worried about this Indian Variant and that it’s gonna put us back to square one sooner or later.

If it does than Boris has to consider his position as lessons clearly have not been learnt, there was a simple way of stopping it coming into the country but we have been failed AGAIN should this kick it all off again.

Hopefully it’s just a blip and the vaccine continues to do it’s job and we can look back on this post in a month and say I was over reacting.
 
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