Putinsv real reason for attacking Ukraine?

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Davepick

Well-known member
It's fairly obvious that Putin is extremely worried that now there are 22 (at my count) NATO countries.
Most of the countries to the West of Russia have joined NATO.
If Ukraine join, as they want to, it means that Russias' western frontier, with Warsaw pact countries is diminishing slowly, and might even disappear.
I think that that is the major reason for the Ukraine invasion. i.e. to Keep it under Russian control.
 
I would agree with you Dave to a point, but his misguided attempts to subdue the Ukrainians and keep the border where it was has resulted in two more neutrals, Sweden and Finland, joining NATO, and you can't blame them when they see how the Russians try to win over, if that is the correct term, those who are close to them.

I also believe that Putin was frightened of losing his mantra as a hard man, something the Russians seem to prefer rather than peacemakers like Gorbachev with his openness and friendliness towards the Western World, and I partly blame the good old USA for their wish to rule the world at the same time as decrying the UK for its past Empire, which has obviously made the Communist world distrustful of their aims.
 
That's the reason he's always given but it's still a very bad idea. If he had ever been serious about gaining influence with his ex-Soviet neighbours then soft power was always the way to go. But, of course, Putin (ex KGB) has always secured his power through his 'superman' myth. Whether through the big speeches about Russian nuclear weapons or his unjustified seat at the G8 and G20. So, he has finally gone over the top with his armed forces to bully Ukraine into imposing a puppet Government favourable to Russia. Well, that's not worked.
 
There is a very distinct possibility that Russia could break up. There is already some conflict between the semi autonomous regions and the Kremlin which started about five years ago.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
There is a very distinct possibility that Russia could break up. There is already some conflict between the semi autonomous regions and the Kremlin which started about five years ago.
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I'm so for self-determination so that's a good thing.

In the same way if Gibraltar, Falklands, Scotland ever voted to go their own way, I'd support them.

Not so sure our friends in the East would look at it in the same way; but the moment the region's think they are simply canon fodder for the Muscovite elites, they may well turn.
 
Basically, the world is fcuked, won’t be too long before it all kicks off again, unless John Lennon is resurrected and the world adopts “imagine” as the way forward
 
1966_and_all_that said:
That's the reason he's always given but it's still a very bad idea. If he had ever been serious about gaining influence with his ex-Soviet neighbours then soft power was always the way to go. But, of course, Putin (ex KGB) has always secured his power through his 'superman' myth. Whether through the big speeches about Russian nuclear weapons or his unjustified seat at the G8 and G20. So, he has finally gone over the top with his armed forces to bully Ukraine into imposing a puppet Government favourable to Russia. Well, that's not worked.
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It's the Russian way, they've been colonising for hundreds of years invading, ethnically cleansing and then re-writing their own history to suit their world view. Historically they're not alone in that course but these c**ts are still at it.
 
Collapse of a totalitarian state. Near anarchy. Conglomerate of peoples and countries wanting independence. Gangster mentality carried over into a near mafia state. Resort to plan A and get a new Czar in place. Putin takes over and controls the state. Dictator needs beef with someone. Balkans or Crimea always good for a face off/row.
Looks at map and points to Ukraine.
 
Dr Hfuhruhurr said:
It's the Russian way, they've been colonising for hundreds of years invading, ethnically cleansing and then re-writing their own history to suit their world view. Historically they're not alone in that course but these c**ts are still at it.
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Of the 200 or so countries in the World, Britain has invaded all but 22 of them at some point in history so not sure we can really complain.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Of the 200 or so countries in the World, Britain has invaded all but 22 of them at some point in history so not sure we can really complain.
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Not sure we have indiscriminately targeted the elderly women and children in schools and hospitals though.
Not even sure we have deliberately targeted power stations and water supplies either.
Yes I except the bombing during WW2 might be a case to argue against but it was a world war that we didn’t start.
Russia are deliberately targeting these places with precision ordinance in order to break the will of the Ukrainian people it’s a massive difference they tried military targets now the civilians are the targets.
 
Jaffa_The_Hut said:
Not sure we have indiscriminately targeted the elderly women and children in schools and hospitals though.
Not even sure we have deliberately targeted power stations and water supplies either.
Yes I except the bombing during WW2 might be a case to argue against but it was a world war that we didn’t start.
Russia are deliberately targeting these places with precision ordinance in order to break the will of the Ukrainian people it’s a massive difference they tried military targets now the civilians are the targets.
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Unfortunately, the thoughts and feelings you have towards Russia are similar to those that some historically hold about Britain.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Unfortunately, the thoughts and feelings you have towards Russia are similar to those that some historically hold about Britain.
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Unfortunately? So you not taken back by some of the pictures of women and children blown up in Ukraine? What about the mass war graves their finding? My my I know you have German links but come on.
Anyway I’am living in these times I didn’t when we invaded the 200 countries you claim we invaded so I can’t comment on them.
 
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Davepick said:
It's fairly obvious that Putin is extremely worried that now there are 22 (at my count) NATO countries.
Most of the countries to the West of Russia have joined NATO.
If Ukraine join, as they want to, it means that Russias' western frontier, with Warsaw pact countries is diminishing slowly, and might even disappear.
I think that that is the major reason for the Ukraine invasion. i.e. to Keep it under Russian control.
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I've personally thought that from day one and I think the US have wanted to get "nato" into Ukraine for a period of time. Russia are historically paranoid about being invaded from the west via the European plains and the Warsaw pact was the buffer zone they needed (there is a fantastic book called prisoners of geography by Tim Marshall that details Russian mindset and its geographical problems they have militarily) In the eyes of Russia Ukraine is that buffer zone, it wasn't acceptable to them that they joined Nato. Lets remember the US couldn't accept Russia being involved in Cuba. Russia also need warm water ports, Crimea gives them that.
The war has been portrayed as Putin trying to act tough, paranoid, crazy etc. I think its a tad more complicated than that. It's the conscripted Russian soldiers, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians that I feel for, this conflict has become a proxy war the west are fighting with Ukrainian blood.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Of the 200 or so countries in the World, Britain has invaded all but 22 of them at some point in history so not sure we can really complain.
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But this is 2023, what happened a hundred or a thousand years ago can’t be used as a reason to allow Russia to invade Ukraine. Invasion by more powerful nations was rife well before we started, but no country accepts it now.
 
Jaffa_The_Hut said:
Unfortunately? So you not taken back by some of the pictures of women and children blown up in Ukraine? What about the mass war graves their finding? My my I know you have German links but come on.
Anyway I’am living in these times I didn’t when we invaded the 200 countries you claim we invaded so I can’t comment on them.
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Bit out of order that Jaffa in my opinion.
 
PETER SPRUCE 1 said:
Bit out of order that Jaffa in my opinion.
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I thought the word ‘unfortunately’ was out of order Peter hence my reaction.

I can live with BHOK constantly knocking this country he has a habit of doing it but to try and gloss over what’s happening in Ukraine right now and even go as far as say it’s no different to what we have done over the years is just so wrong imo.

A lot of bad things that happened years ago were wrong but are slowly being put right today but dismissing what’s going on in Ukraine today and turning the table and having a pop at the U.K. is just typical him.

The thread is about Putin attacking Ukraine not how bad the U.K. has been over hundreds of years unfortunately the world today is full of madmen and dictators full of evil some long gone some still here and I for one wouldn’t put this country in that category and never have had.
 
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Talking about Russia being paranoid about invasion from the West might be their fears.
However, I don't think that there was ever a danger of that happening.
What would be the point?
It's such a vast country that it would be nigh impossible to cover every area.
In fact, the opposite is more possible. Russia wants to control every corner of its' empire, and even enlarge it, as we are now seeing.
 
Davepick said:
Talking about Russia being paranoid about invasion from the West might be their fears.
However, I don't think that there was ever a danger of that happening.
What would be the point?
It's such a vast country that it would be nigh impossible to cover every area.
In fact, the opposite is more possible. Russia wants to control every corner of its' empire, and even enlarge it, as we are now seeing.
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Three letters for you O.I.L and three more, G.A.S.
 
Davepick said:
Talking about Russia being paranoid about invasion from the West might be their fears.
However, I don't think that there was ever a danger of that happening.
What would be the point?
It's such a vast country that it would be nigh impossible to cover every area.
In fact, the opposite is more possible. Russia wants to control every corner of its' empire, and even enlarge it, as we are now seeing.
Click to expand...
Both Russia and China think longer term than Western democracies they have 50 year plans. The nazi invasion is branded on their memory, they suffered monumental casualties in WW2 and the battle of stalingrad the deadliest in history. It's Moscow and western Russia they are bothered about not the vast empty areas, the Eastern flanks are naturally protected by mountains.
I'm not excusing the Russians at all but trying to offer an explanation for some of their behaviour, if I was the Russian president I'd be unhappy about nato (defacto USA) on my doorstep. Invading Crimea was a militarily necessity as the Russian fleet need a warm water port at Sevastopol, which they don't have elsewhere. Many people fall into the trap of calling Putin a madman, his methods may be unpalatable to us but there is a strategic reason for his actions.
 
Russia’s leadership may seem to be paranoid to us with their fear of western (and eastern) invasion but there is plenty of historical precedent, a lot of it within the past 100 years or so but stretching back many 100s of years.

Invasion of Russia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
Including the invasion of northwest Russia by Britain and the USA in 1918-20 to try and overthrow Lenin and the Bolshevik regime. And Japan invading the Eastern provinces.

That does not excuse the atrocity of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine but the West has failed in its diplomacy by not understanding the Russian mindset. Of course after WW2 the Eastern Europe states were their buffer against another invasion as the Nazis had attempted. The Cold War was not that cold, as each side mounted proxy wars trying to drag down the other such as Vietnam, Afghanistan. We were lucky none went nuclear.

After the fall of Communism in 1989 the West should have given so much aid to make the Russians dependent on our trade in return for their oil and gas. Wide and deep trade is the way to avert isolationism and the risk of war. Instead, the West and especially the USA adopted the attitude of “Ya, boo, sucks to you. We won the Cold War and you lost”. Thus fostering more resentment and a hankering in Putin to restore the Soviet Union. That’s a bit like Germany after the Versailles Treaty. So we did not learn the lessons of history.
 
Archibald Knox said:
After the fall of Communism in 1989 the West should have given so much aid to make the Russians dependent on our trade in return for their oil and gas. Wide and deep trade is the way to avert isolationism and the risk of war. Instead, the West and especially the USA adopted the attitude of “Ya, boo, sucks to you. We won the Cold War and you lost”. Thus fostering more resentment and a hankering in Putin to restore the Soviet Union. That’s a bit like Germany after the Versailles Treaty. So we did not learn the lessons of history.
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Great para. We have to understand others mindset.

The fundamental problem, possibly unsolvable, is that we have to support any country's right to self determination, and alliance with whomsoever it wishes. It is not up to the west or Putin to decide what all the ex Warsaw Pact states do, it is up to themselves. ATM, the west is seen as more attractive. So to all those who blame NATO for threatening Putin, you are missing the point. We have no right to sacrifice states to keep him happy.
 
Shandypants said:
Both Russia and China think longer term than Western democracies they have 50 year plans. The nazi invasion is branded on their memory, they suffered monumental casualties in WW2 and the battle of stalingrad the deadliest in history. It's Moscow and western Russia they are bothered about not the vast empty areas, the Eastern flanks are naturally protected by mountains.
I'm not excusing the Russians at all but trying to offer an explanation for some of their behaviour, if I was the Russian president I'd be unhappy about nato (defacto USA) on my doorstep. Invading Crimea was a militarily necessity as the Russian fleet need a warm water port at Sevastopol, which they don't have elsewhere. Many people fall into the trap of calling Putin a madman, his methods may be unpalatable to us but there is a strategic reason for his actions.
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Shandy, I agree generally with what you say.
However, what are the chances that we, or the West, will invade Russia?
Very low to negative I would say, and Putin knows this.
 
Davepick said:
Shandy, I agree generally with what you say.
However, what are the chances that we, or the West, will invade Russia?
Very low to negative I would say, and Putin knows this.
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Currently nil but who knows over the next 100 years what will happen. Like I said China and Russia have long term aims that we don't in the West. They don't pander to an electorate with silly slogans and pointless short term nonsense.
 
Shandypants said:
Currently nil but who knows over the next 100 years what will happen. Like I said China and Russia have long term aims that we don't in the West. They don't pander to an electorate with silly slogans and pointless short term nonsense.
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Obviously 'Democracy' isn't all that good when it comes to meeting 'Totalitarian' regimes.
 
So much for Putins 3 day ceasefire for the Orthodox Christmas period.
Missiles fired during the night in the Donetsk region hitting power stations.
This bloke tells more lies than billy liar but 10 times over.
He really needs bumping off sooner rather than later.
 
Davepick said:
Obviously 'Democracy' isn't all that good when it comes to meeting 'Totalitarian' regimes.
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I didn't mean it to come out like I described but I'd say in the UK it's playing to the gallery and appealing to the lowest common denominator.
Totalitarian regimes will naturally have an advantage to long term strategy. Us leaving the EU isn't great from a united front and certainly something that Russia was keen on.
 
BFC1980 said:
Thank God you're not in charge of foreign policy.
"Hey Putin, crack on fella. Britain did this shit a few hundred years ago so fill yer boots mate."
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The debate was about countries which invade others rather than countries which come to the aid of those invaded. Just pointing out that Britain is historically notorious for being the invader rather than the saviour.
 
20togo said:
So Britain invading other countries hundreds of years ago is relevant today to the debate because....?
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The debate was about history not today. If you read the original post back that I responded to, they were referring to Russia's history of invading over hundreds of years. Britain did the same and more.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
The debate was about history not today. If you read the original post back that I responded to, they were referring to Russia's history of invading over hundreds of years. Britain did the same and more.
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But the thread is about Putin attacking Ukraine?
You were the one that first mentioned 200 years of our country invading others.
 
Jaffa_The_Hut said:
But the thread is about Putin attacking Ukraine?
You were the one that first mentioned 200 years of our country invading others.
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I responded to someone saying Russia has been "colonising for hundreds of years invading, ethnically cleansing and then re-writing their own history to suit their world view"... as Britain did more than anyone.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
I responded to someone saying Russia has been "colonising for hundreds of years invading, ethnically cleansing and then re-writing their own history to suit their world view"... as Britain did more than anyone.
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But you still had to bring up this country didn’t you? Pretty sure no one else would have done it in the way you always do at every opportunity.
 
Ukraine are saying that Putin intends to mobilise to create a 2 million strong army, if that’s the case it’s game over for Ukraine. The also say that Ukraine is now de facto part of Nato. I wonder what the west will do in those circumstances.
 
If the British send Challenger 2 tanks, the USA send Abrams M1 tanks and the Germans send Leopard 2 tanks then Putin will conclude NATO is involved, even if they are crewed by Ukrainians and in relatively small numbers.

At the moment, there is talk of sending only a company of each, i.e. about 12 tanks, for a total of 36, maybe up to 40. They will dominate the Russian armour in firepower, range and protection. If they are all concentrated on the southern Zaporizhzhia front with sufficient infantry in armoured carriers they could allow Ukraine to cut off Crimea. That’s when it will get very worrying, if Putin feels forced to use battlefield nukes as his last option.

There is a big difference in supplying Ukraine with advanced anti-tank missiles which are essentially defensive in purpose and sending main battle tanks which are offensive. Part of me says that if you are going to send tanks, then do it properly and send several hundred, which would end this horror fairly quickly. But I fear the outcome if Putin is forced into a corner. Ultimately, he has to be negotiated out of Ukraine.
 
20togo said:
so your comparing events that happened hundreds of years ago compared to events happening now and saying people living today are being hypocritical. Got ya!
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I have already said multiple times it is a historical comparison so either you can't read, can't understand or are pretending to be dumb.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
I have already said multiple times it is a historical comparison so either you can't read, can't understand or are pretending to be dumb.
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Yep, and I've already said multiple times that it's not unlike you to put this country down is it? Not something you've ever really denied is it?
 
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